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This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in 2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities to respond to these growing risks through adaptive changes, the San Francisco Bay Area could experience either significant impacts or maintain its resilience in the face of a rapidly changing environment.

This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in 2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities to respond to these growing risks through adaptive changes, the San Francisco Bay Area could experience either significant impacts or maintain its resilience in the face of a rapidly changing environment.

Fragmented ocean management contributes significantly to the declining health of the world’s oceans. The sector-based piecemeal approach to management has produced a governance system filled with gaps and overlaps. These inefficiencies impede effective mitigation and confrontation of major environmental stressors. Historically, industries such as mining, fishing, and shipping, have driven management decisions for ocean-related uses. Government agencies, scientists, and other natural resource stakeholders are moving toward a management approach based on the relevant ecosystem, in order to resolve problematic fragmentation in ocean management. Transitioning into an ecosystem-based management approach requires comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the problems created by fragmented decision-making and of the landscape of the current governance system. In an effort to contribute to the shift toward ecosystem-based management efforts, this dissertation explores and develops text mining techniques that identify and evaluate gaps and overlaps. Two institutional theories frame the development of gaps and overlaps analyses: the problem of fit and institutional interplay, respectively. The gaps analysis uses conceptual ecosystem models and term counts from laws to identify situations in which management fails to acknowledge ecosystem relationships. From the gaps analysis, two measures indicate the degree to which governance (referring to the whole cross sectoral system of law) reflects the relationships and functionality of the ecosystem it aims to manage. The overlaps analysis uses term counts of laws combined with agency authority data to provide information about potential hubs of regulatory activity for a given topic (Overlap Index), and the degree of agency involvement in a particular topic. To develop such techniques, the project first compiled a comprehensive set of state and federal statutes and regulations to represent ocean and coastal management in the Califor

Fragmented ocean management contributes significantly to the declining health of the world’s oceans. The sector-based piecemeal approach to management has produced a governance system filled with gaps and overlaps. These inefficiencies impede effective mitigation and confrontation of major environmental stressors. Historically, industries such as mining, fishing, and shipping, have driven management decisions for ocean-related uses. Government agencies, scientists, and other natural resource stakeholders are moving toward a management approach based on the relevant ecosystem, in order to resolve problematic fragmentation in ocean management. Transitioning into an ecosystem-based management approach requires comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the problems created by fragmented decision-making and of the landscape of the current governance system. In an effort to contribute to the shift toward ecosystem-based management efforts, this dissertation explores and develops text mining techniques that identify and evaluate gaps and overlaps. Two institutional theories frame the development of gaps and overlaps analyses: the problem of fit and institutional interplay, respectively. The gaps analysis uses conceptual ecosystem models and term counts from laws to identify situations in which management fails to acknowledge ecosystem relationships. From the gaps analysis, two measures indicate the degree to which governance (referring to the whole cross sectoral system of law) reflects the relationships and functionality of the ecosystem it aims to manage. The overlaps analysis uses term counts of laws combined with agency authority data to provide information about potential hubs of regulatory activity for a given topic (Overlap Index), and the degree of agency involvement in a particular topic. To develop such techniques, the project first compiled a comprehensive set of state and federal statutes and regulations to represent ocean and coastal management in the Califor