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Background and Aims: Normal alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels in ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are associated with better long-term outcome. However, second-line therapies are currently recommended only when ALP levels remain above 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (×ULN) after 12-month UDCA. We assessed whether, in patients considered good responders to UDCA, normal ALP levels were associated with significant survival gains. Approach and Results: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients with PBC who attained an adequate response to UDCA according to Paris-2 criteria. Time to liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death was assessed using adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. The overall incidence rate of events was 17.0 (95% CI: 13.7-21.1) per 1000 out of 4763.2 patient-years. On the whole population, normal serum ALP values (but not normal gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or aspartate aminotransferase (AST); or total bilirubin < 0.6 ×ULN) were associated with a significant absolute complication-free survival gain at 10 years (mean 7.6 months, 95% CI: 2.7 - 12.6 mo.; p = 0.003). In subgroup analysis, this association was significant in patients with a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 10 kPa and/or age ≤ 62 years, with a 10-year absolute complication-free survival gain of 52.8 months (95% CI: 45.7-59.9, p < 0.001) when these 2 conditions were met. Conclusions: PBC patients with an adequate response to UDCA and persistent ALP elevation between 1.1 and 1.5 ×ULN, particularly those with advanced fibrosis and/or who are sufficiently young, remain at risk of poor outcome. Further therapeutic efforts should be considered for these patients.

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon 1,2 . Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere 3,4 . The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain 5–7 . This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections 7,8 . Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] ( n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration ( n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years ( n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5,6,7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration., Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5,6,7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration., Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Background and Aims: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. Methods: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. Results: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82–1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72–3.69) at six months (p <.001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. Conclusions: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Background and aims The are geographic variations in the incidence and prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim was to explore whether clinical outcomes of patients within Western Europe differ according to geographical region. Methods Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from European centers from the Global PBC database diagnosed from 1990 onwards were included. Patients with a time lag > 1 year from diagnosis to start of follow-up were excluded. Differences in baseline characteristics were studied according to North/South and East/West, whereas outcomes (transplant-free survival and decompensation) were studied with center latitude and longitude. Cox regression analyses were adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis year, biochemical markers, and cirrhosis as a time-dependent covariate. Results One thousand eight hundred seventy-eight patients were included, and there were no geographical differences in age or sex, with a mean age of 54 years and 89% female patients. Those in North Europe were more often of a moderately advanced/advanced Rotterdam biochemical stage (28.4%) compared with South Europe (20.6%). Additionally, they exhibited higher median alkaline phosphatase (2.0 ×ULN vs. 1.4 ×ULN) and transaminases. In multivariable analysis, there was a significant interaction between center latitude and longitude for decompensation (P < 0.001) and a trend for transplant-free survival, in which the Northwestern area demonstrated an increased risk for poor outcomes as compared to the reference (Paris). Conclusion We describe geographic variations in outcomes for patients across Europe from specialist centers in the Global PBC Study Group. Further study is important to explore the potential individual, environmental, and healthcare-related factors that may be contributors.

Background and Aims: Alagille syndrome (ALGS) is a multisystem disorder, characterized by cholestasis. Existing outcome data are largely derived from tertiary centers, and real-world data are lacking. This study aimed to elucidate the natural history of liver disease in a contemporary, international cohort of children with ALGS. Approach and Results: This was a multicenter retrospective study of children with a clinically and/or genetically confirmed ALGS diagnosis, born between January 1997 and August 2019. Native liver survival (NLS) and event-free survival rates were assessed. Cox models were constructed to identify early biochemical predictors of clinically evident portal hypertension (CEPH) and NLS. In total, 1433 children (57% male) from 67 centers in 29 countries were included. The 10 and 18-year NLS rates were 54.4% and 40.3%. By 10 and 18 years, 51.5% and 66.0% of children with ALGS experienced ≥1 adverse liver-related event (CEPH, transplant, or death). Children (>6 and ≤12 months) with median total bilirubin (TB) levels between ≥5.0 and <10.0 mg/dl had a 4.1-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-10.8), and those ≥10.0 mg/dl had an 8.0-fold (95% CI, 3.4-18.4) increased risk of developing CEPH compared with those <5.0 mg/dl. Median TB levels between ≥5.0 and <10.0 mg/dl and >10.0 mg/dl were associated with a 4.8 (95% CI, 2.4-9.7) and 15.6 (95% CI, 8.7-28.2) increased risk of transplantation relative to <5.0 mg/dl. Median TB <5.0 mg/dl were associated with higher NLS rates relative to ≥5.0 mg/dl, with 79% reaching adulthood with native liver (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In this large international cohort of ALGS, only 40.3% of children reach adulthood with their native liver. A TB <5.0 mg/dl between 6 and 12 months of age is associated with better hepatic outcomes. These thresholds provide clinicians with an objective tool to assist with clinical decision-making and in the evaluation of therapies.

Objective: We analyzed the pooled case-control data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to compare cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption risk factors for head and neck cancer between less developed and more developed countries. Subjects and Methods: The location of each study was categorized as either a less developed or more developed country. We compared the risk of overall head and neck cancer and cancer of specific anatomic subsites associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Additionally, age and sex distribution between categories was compared. Results: The odds ratios for head and neck cancer sites associated with smoking duration differed between less developed and more developed countries. Smoking greater than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oral cavity and laryngeal cancer in more developed countries, whereas the risk was greater for oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer in less developed countries. Alcohol consumed for more than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx cancer in less developed countries. The proportion of cases that were young (<45 years) or female differed by country type for some HNC subsites. Conclusion: These findings suggest the degree of industrialization and economic development affects the relationship between smoking and alcohol with head and neck cancer.

Background & Aims: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA–treated external controls. Methods: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. Results: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10–0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12–0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03–1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09–1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21–0.85) including hepatic decompensation. Conclusions: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Maintaining peace and conserving biodiversity hinge on an international system of cooperation codified in institutions, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings recent progress to a crossroads. Against this backdrop, we address some implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the governance of biodiversity conservation both within and beyond Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens the governance system for biodiversity conservation, as it pertains to Russia and beyond, due to three interacting factors: (i) isolation of Russia from the international system, (ii) halt and delay of international cooperation, and (iii) changes in international and domestic policy priorities. We recommend making the existing international system of governance for conserving biodiversity more resilient and adaptable, while aligning security agendas with biodiversity conservation goals.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) has attracted interest in relation to fisheries, with its possibilities for species identification and promises for species quantification. In the context of fisheries catches, eDNA can be most useful for the estimation of bycatch proportions. The assessment of species mixtures in large catches (\gt;1000 t) is challenging, especially when morphologically similar species are to be differentiated. We used an experimental set-up to simulate industrial sprat fishery catches, and tested two types of water (blood water and discharge water) derived from this simulated fishery for their suitability in reliable species quantification. We analysed nine mixtures of sprat and herring—the main bycatch species. Species-specific quantitative PCR was used for species identification and quantification. Species-to-species weight fractions and eDNA fractions in mixtures showed a strong correlation. Accounting for size-based differences in DNA abundance (allometrically scaled weight) reduced the estimated standard error on weight fraction prediction from 0.064 to 0.054 in blood water, and from 0.080 to 0.075 in discharge water when comparing the weight-based model with the allometrically scaled weight model, respectively. Accounting for allometric scalling in genetic analyses of fisheries process water can serve as a more precise method for the assessment of bycatch, thus in a wider sense improve the quality of fisheries-dependent data.

Objective We analyzed the pooled case-control data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to compare cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption risk factors for head and neck cancer between less developed and more developed countries. Subjects and Methods The location of each study was categorized as either a less developed or more developed country. We compared the risk of overall head and neck cancer and cancer of specific anatomic subsites associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Additionally, age and sex distribution between categories was compared. Results The odds ratios for head and neck cancer sites associated with smoking duration differed between less developed and more developed countries. Smoking greater than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oral cavity and laryngeal cancer in more developed countries, whereas the risk was greater for oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer in less developed countries. Alcohol consumed for more than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx cancer in less developed countries. The proportion of cases that were young (<45 years) or female differed by country type for some HNC subsites. Conclusion These findings suggest the degree of industrialization and economic development affects the relationship between smoking and alcohol with head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND: Opportunity to redefine the care journeys for those living with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) includes facilitating access to enhanced (PBC-dedicated) programmes by nonspecialist risk 'flagging' of patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a nonexpert PBC stratification tool to help care pathway choices (standard vs. enhanced) choices in PBC. METHODS: We included ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group. The performance of baseline and 1-year clinical markers with transplant-free survival was assessed to develop the 'ABA' tool using Age (A), Bilirubin (B), and Alkaline phosphatase (A). Added value of fibrosis estimation was assessed. RESULTS: 'ABA' classification mapped three risk groups (n = 2226): low [Age > 50 years, bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≤ 3 × ULN], high (Age ≤ 50 years, bilirubin > 1 × ULN, ALP > 3 × ULN), and intermediate (other). Transplant-free survival at 10 years in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 89, 77, and 59% at baseline and 86, 76, and 40% at 1 year, respectively. We propose that high-risk patients at baseline be directly triaged to enhanced (PBC-dedicated) care and the remaining be reassessed at 1 year. Modelling showed after 1 year 46% patients were proposed to enhanced care and 54% to standard care. The 'ABA' mapped pathways facilitated identification of patients at risk based on a young age, as compared to traditional liver biochemical stratification. In patients proposed to standard care, estimated fibrosis stage had ongoing prognostic value. CONCLUSION: Nonspecialist use of the 'ABA' risk tool could prioritize care journey choices for patients with PBC.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Objective The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT 5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT 5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT 5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Objective The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT 5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT 5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT 5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Background & Aims: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) after liver transplantation (LT) is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the current standard therapy for PBC. We investigated the effect of preventive exposure to UDCA on the incidence and long-term consequences of PBC recurrence after LT. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 780 patients transplanted for PBC, between 1983–2017 in 16 centers (9 countries), and followed-up for a median of 11 years. Among them, 190 received preventive UDCA (10–15 mg/kg/day). The primary outcome was histological evidence of PBC recurrence. The secondary outcomes were graft loss, liver-related death, and all-cause death. The association between preventive UDCA and outcomes was quantified using multivariable-adjusted Cox and restricted mean survival time (RMST) models. Results: While recurrence of PBC significantly shortened graft and patient survival, preventive exposure to UDCA was associated with reduced risk of PBC recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.41; 95% CI 0.28–0.61; p <0.0001), graft loss (aHR 0.33; 95% CI 0.13–0.82; p <0.05), liver-related death (aHR 0.46; 95% CI 0.22–0.98; p <0.05), and all-cause death (aHR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49–0.96; p <0.05). On RMST analysis, preventive UDCA led to a survival gain of 2.26 years (95% CI 1.28–3.25) over a period of 20 years. Exposure to cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus had a complementary protective effect alongside preventive UDCA, reducing the cumulative incidence of PBC recurrence and all-cause death. Conclusions: Preventive UDCA after LT for PBC is associated with a reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, and death. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive UDCA is associated with the lowest risk of PBC recurrence and mortality. Lay summary: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. We perform

Background: Physical activity (PA) declines during childhood. Important sources of PA are active travel, organised sport and physical education (PE), but it is unclear how these domain-specific PA sources contribute to (changes in) daily moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) in young people. This study aimed to examine (1) the cross-sectional association between domain-specific physical activity (i.e., active travel, organised sport and PE) and daily minutes in accelerometer-assessed MVPA; and (2) the longitudinal association between domain-specific physical activity at baseline and change in daily minutes in MVPA. Methods: Participants (baseline age 11.3 ±.1.2 years) were drawn from three studies in the International Children’s Accelerometry Database. The contribution of self-reported standardised active travel, organised sport and PE to accelerometer-measured daily minutes in MVPA was examined using linear regression. In cross-sectional analyses, MVPA was regressed on each PA domain in separate models, adjusted for study, age, sex, maternal education, season, and monitor wear time. In longitudinal analyses, change in MVPA was regressed on each of the baseline PA domains, additionally adjusting for changes in season and wear time, follow-up duration, and baseline MVPA. R-squared was used to compare variance explained by each PA domain. Results: In the cross-sectional analyses (n = 3871), organised sport (standardised β = 3.81, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 3.06, 4.56) and active travel (β = 3.46, 95%CI = 2.73, 4.19) contributed more to daily MVPA than PE (β = 0.82, 95%CI = -0.02, 1.66). Compared to the base model which included only covariates (R2 = 21.5%), organised sport (absolute change: + 1.9%) and active travel (+ 1.7%) models explained more of the variance than the PE model (± < 0.1%). Associations followed a similar pattern in the longitudinal analyses (n = 2302), but none of the PA domains predicted change i

An eight-cavity, 1.3 GHz, SLAC linac coherent light source II High Energy cryomodule was assembled and tested at Fermilab to verify performance before the start of production. Its cavities were processed with a novel nitrogen doping treatment to improve gradient performance. The cryomodule was tested with a modified protocol to process sporadic quenches, which were observed in Linac Coherent Light Source II production cryomodules and are attributed to multipacting. Dedicated vertical test experiments support the attribution to multipacting. The verification cryomodule achieved an acceleration voltage of 200 MV in continuous wave mode, corresponding to an average accelerating gradient of 24.1 MV/m, significantly exceeding the specification of 173 MV. The average Q0 (3.0×1010) also exceeded its specification (2.7×1010). After processing, no field emission was observed up to the maximum gradient of each cavity. This paper reviews the cryomodule performance and discusses operational issues and mitigations implemented during the several month program.

Objective: The aim of this integrative review was to identify facilitators and barriers to patients’ well-being when being cared for in an ICU setting, from the perspective of the patients. Background: To become critically ill and hospitalised in an ICU is a stressful, chaotic event due to the life-threatening condition itself, as well as therapeutic treatments and the environment. A growing body of evidence has revealed that patients often suffer from physical, psychological and cognitive problems after an ICU stay. Several strategies, such as sedation and pain management, are used to reduce stress and increase well-being during ICU hospitalisation, but the ICU experience nevertheless affects the body and mind. Design; Methods: Since research exploring patients’ sense of well-being in an ICU setting is limited, an integrative review approach was selected. Searches were performed in CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Eric and EMBASE. After reviewing 66 studies, 12 studies were included in the integrative review. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the studies. The PRISMA checklist for systematic reviews was used. Results: The results are presented under one main theme, ‘Well-being as a multidimensional experience—interwoven in barriers and facilitators’ and six sub-themes representing barriers to and facilitators of well-being in an ICU. Barriers identified were physical stressors, emotional stressors, environmental disturbances and insecurity relating to time and space. Facilitators were meeting physical needs and activities that included dimensions of a caring and relational environment. Conclusion: Our main findings were that experiences of well-being were multidimensional and included physical, emotional, relational and environmental aspects, and they were more often described through barriers than facilitators of well-being. Relevance for clinical practice: This integrative review has shown that it is necessary to adopt an individual focus on patient well-being in

Objective: The aim of this integrative review was to identify facilitators and barriers to patients’ well-being when being cared for in an ICU setting, from the perspective of the patients. Background: To become critically ill and hospitalised in an ICU is a stressful, chaotic event due to the life-threatening condition itself, as well as therapeutic treatments and the environment. A growing body of evidence has revealed that patients often suffer from physical, psychological and cognitive problems after an ICU stay. Several strategies, such as sedation and pain management, are used to reduce stress and increase well-being during ICU hospitalisation, but the ICU experience nevertheless affects the body and mind. Design; Methods: Since research exploring patients’ sense of well-being in an ICU setting is limited, an integrative review approach was selected. Searches were performed in CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Eric and EMBASE. After reviewing 66 studies, 12 studies were included in the integrative review. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the studies. The PRISMA checklist for systematic reviews was used. Results: The results are presented under one main theme, ‘Well-being as a multidimensional experience—interwoven in barriers and facilitators’ and six sub-themes representing barriers to and facilitators of well-being in an ICU. Barriers identified were physical stressors, emotional stressors, environmental disturbances and insecurity relating to time and space. Facilitators were meeting physical needs and activities that included dimensions of a caring and relational environment. Conclusion: Our main findings were that experiences of well-being were multidimensional and included physical, emotional, relational and environmental aspects, and they were more often described through barriers than facilitators of well-being. Relevance for clinical practice: This integrative review has shown that it is necessary to adopt an individual focus on patient well-being in

Groundwater utilization and groundwater quality vary in the Baltic and Nordic countries mainly because of different geological settings. Based on the geology, the countries were treated in the following three groups: (1) Fennoscandian countries (Finland, Sweden, and Norway), (2) Denmark and Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), and (3) Iceland. Most of the utilized groundwater resources are taken from Quaternary deposits, but Denmark and the Baltic countries have in addition, important resources in Phanerozoic rocks. The groundwater quality reflects the residence time of water in the subsurface and the chemical composition of the geological formations. Concentrations of ions in the Fennoscandian bedrock are elevated compared to Iceland, but lower than in Denmark and the Baltic countries. Compared to groundwater in the bedrock, groundwater in Quaternary deposits has usually lower concentrations of dissolved minerals. Unconfined Quaternary aquifers are vulnerable to contamination. Examples from Denmark and the Baltic countries illustrate challenges and successful effects of mitigation strategies for such aquifers related to agricultural application and management of nitrogen. Confined and deeper groundwater is better protected against anthropogenic contamination, but water quality may be affected by harmful compounds caused by geogenic processes (viz, sulfide, arsenic, fluoride, and radon).

Global warming has pronounced effects on tundra vegetation, and rising mean temperatures increase plant growth potential across the Arctic biome. Herbivores may counteract the warming impacts by reducing plant growth, but the strength of this effect may depend on prevailing regional climatic conditions. To study how ungulates interact with temperature to influence growth of tundra shrubs across the Arctic tundra biome, we assembled dendroecological data from 20 sites, comprising 1153 individual shrubs and 223 63 annual growth rings. Evidence for ungulates suppressing shrub radial growth was only observed at intermediate summer temperatures (6.5 °C–9 °C), and even at these temperatures the effect was not strong. Multiple factors, including forage preferences and landscape use by the ungulates, and favourable climatic conditions enabling effective compensatory growth of shrubs, may weaken the effects of ungulates on shrubs, possibly explaining the weakness of observed ungulate effects. Earlier local studies have shown that ungulates may counteract the impacts of warming on tundra shrub growth, but we demonstrate that ungulates’ potential to suppress shrub radial growth is not always evident, and may be limited to certain climatic conditions.

Background & Aims: Functional cure, defined based on hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss, is rare during nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy and guidelines on finite NA therapy have not been well established. We aim to analyze off-therapy outcomes after NA cessation in a large, international, multicenter, multiethnic cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: This cohort study included patients with virally suppressed CHB who were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)–negative and stopped NA therapy. Primary outcome was HBsAg loss after NA cessation, and secondary outcomes included virologic, biochemical, and clinical relapse, alanine aminotransferase flare, retreatment, and liver-related events after NA cessation. Results: Among 1552 patients with CHB, cumulative probability of HBsAg loss was 3.2% at 12 months and 13.0% at 48 months of follow-up. HBsAg loss was higher among Whites (vs Asians: subdistribution hazard ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.7–16.8; P < .001) and among patients with HBsAg levels <100 IU/mL at end of therapy (vs ≥100 IU/mL: subdistribution hazard ratio, 22.5; 95% confidence interval, 13.1–38.7; P < .001). At 48 months of follow-up, Whites with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL and Asians with HBsAg levels <100 IU/mL at end of therapy had a high predicted probability of HBsAg loss (>30%). Incidence rate of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.48 per 1000 person-years and 0.29 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Death occurred in 7/19 decompensated patients and 2/14 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions: The best candidates for NA withdrawal are virally suppressed, HBeAg- negative, noncirrhotic patients with CHB with low HBsAg levels, particularly Whites with <1000 IU/mL and Asians with <100 IU/mL. However, strict surveillance is recommended to prevent deterioration.

Background & Aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) has been shown to predict outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in small-size studies. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of LSM in a large cohort study. Methods: We performed an international, multicentre, retrospective follow-up study of 3,985 patients with PBC seen at 23 centres in 12 countries. Eligibility criteria included at least 1 reliable LSM by VCTE and a follow-up ≥ 1 year. Independent derivation (n = 2,740) and validation (n = 568) cohorts were built. The primary endpoint was time to poor clinical outcomes defined as liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death. Hazard ratios (HRs) with CIs were determined using a time-dependent multivariable Cox regression analysis. Results: LSM was independently associated with poor clinical outcomes in the derivation (5,324 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 3.1 years) and validation (1,470 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 2.8 years) cohorts: adjusted HRs (95% CI) per additional kPa were 1.040 (1.026–1.054) and 1.042 (1.029–1.056), respectively (p <0.0001 for both). Adjusted C-statistics (95% CI) at baseline were 0.83 (0.79–0.87) and 0.92 (0.89–0.95), respectively. Between 5 and 30 kPa, the log-HR increased as a monotonic function of LSM. The predictive value of LSM was stable in time. LSM improved the prognostic ability of biochemical response criteria, fibrosis scores, and prognostic scores. The 8 kPa and 15 kPa cut-offs optimally separated low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Forty percent of patients were at medium to high risk according to LSM. Conclusions: LSM by VCTE is a major, independent, validated predictor of PBC outcome. Its value as a surrogate endpoint for clinical benefit in PBC should be considered. Lay summary: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic autoimmune disease, wherein the body's immune system mistakenly attacks the bile ducts. PBC progresses

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases are globally a major cause of death. Magnesium deficiency is associated with several diseases including cardiovascular diseases. Objective: To examine if a low concentration of magnesium in drinking water is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods: A nationwide population-based cohort study using national health registries was used. A total of 4,274,132 individuals aged 30 years or more were included. Magnesium concentration in drinking water was estimated by linkage of residential addresses in the period 2005-2016 with the national drinking water quality monitoring database. The association between magnesium concentration in drinking water and cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was examined using a Poisson regression of number of deaths and logarithmic transformation of follow-up time as offset. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was adjusted for differences in age, sex, calendar year, cohabitation, country of origin, and socioeconomic status. Results: Median magnesium concentration in drinking water at inclusion was 12.4 mg/L (range: 1.37-54.2 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94; 0.97) for the lowest magnesium quintile (21.9 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was 1.22 (1.17; 1.27) and 0.96 (0.93; 0.99), respectively, for the lowest magnesium quintile as compared to the highest quintile A decreasing mortality due to acute myocardial infarction was seen with an increasing magnesium concentration in a dose-response manner. Conclusion: Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with an increased mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with decreased cardiovascular mortality

Frequent assessment of the severity of illness for hospitalized patients is essential in clinical settings to prevent outcomes such as in-hospital mortality and unplanned ICU admission. Classical severity scores have been developed typically using relatively few patient features, especially for intensive care. Recently, deep learning-based models demonstrated better individualized risk assessments compared to classic risk scores such as SOFA and NEWS, thanks to the use of aggregated and more heterogeneous data sources for dynamic risk prediction. We investigated to what extent deep learning methods can capture patterns of longitudinal change in health status using time-stamped data from electronic health records. We used medical history data, biochemical measurements, and the clinical notes from all patients admitted to non-intensive care units in 12 hospitals in Denmarks Capital Region and Region Zealand during 2011-2016. Data from a total of 852,620 patients and 2,241,849 admissions were used to predict the composite outcome of unplanned ICU transfer and in-hospital death at different time points after admission to general departments. We subsequently examined feature interpretations of the models. The best model used all data modalities with an assessment rate of 6 hours and a prediction window of 14 days, with an AUPRC of 0.287 and AUROC of 0.898. These performances are comparable to the current state of the art and make the model suitable for further prospective validation as a risk assessment tool in a clinical setting.

Frequent assessment of the severity of illness for hospitalized patients is essential in clinical settings to prevent outcomes such as in-hospital mortality and unplanned ICU admission. Classical severity scores have been developed typically using relatively few patient features, especially for intensive care. Recently, deep learning-based models demonstrated better individualized risk assessments compared to classic risk scores such as SOFA and NEWS, thanks to the use of aggregated and more heterogeneous data sources for dynamic risk prediction. We investigated to what extent deep learning methods can capture patterns of longitudinal change in health status using time-stamped data from electronic health records. We used medical history data, biochemical measurements, and the clinical notes from all patients admitted to non-intensive care units in 12 hospitals in Denmarks Capital Region and Region Zealand during 2011-2016. Data from a total of 852,620 patients and 2,241,849 admissions were used to predict the composite outcome of unplanned ICU transfer and in-hospital death at different time points after admission to general departments. We subsequently examined feature interpretations of the models. The best model used all data modalities with an assessment rate of 6 hours and a prediction window of 14 days, with an AUPRC of 0.287 and AUROC of 0.898. These performances are comparable to the current state of the art and make the model suitable for further prospective validation as a risk assessment tool in a clinical setting.

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases are globally a major cause of death. Magnesium deficiency is associated with several diseases including cardiovascular diseases. Objective: To examine if a low concentration of magnesium in drinking water is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods: A nationwide population-based cohort study using national health registries was used. A total of 4,274,132 individuals aged 30 years or more were included. Magnesium concentration in drinking water was estimated by linkage of residential addresses in the period 2005–2016 with the national drinking water quality monitoring database. The association between magnesium concentration in drinking water and cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was examined using a Poisson regression of number of deaths and logarithmic transformation of follow-up time as offset. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was adjusted for differences in age, sex, calendar year, cohabitation, country of origin, and socioeconomic status. Results: Median magnesium concentration in drinking water at inclusion was 12.4 mg/L (range: 1.37–54.2 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94; 0.97) for the lowest magnesium quintile (<6.5 mg/L) as compared to the highest magnesium quintile (>21.9 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was 1.22 (1.17; 1.27) and 0.96 (0.93; 0.99), respectively, for the lowest magnesium quintile as compared to the highest quintile A decreasing mortality due to acute myocardial infarction was seen with an increasing magnesium concentration in a dose–response manner. Conclusion: Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with an increased mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with decreased cardiovasc

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases are globally a major cause of death. Magnesium deficiency is associated with several diseases including cardiovascular diseases. Objective: To examine if a low concentration of magnesium in drinking water is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods: A nationwide population-based cohort study using national health registries was used. A total of 4,274,132 individuals aged 30 years or more were included. Magnesium concentration in drinking water was estimated by linkage of residential addresses in the period 2005–2016 with the national drinking water quality monitoring database. The association between magnesium concentration in drinking water and cardiovascular mortality and mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was examined using a Poisson regression of number of deaths and logarithmic transformation of follow-up time as offset. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was adjusted for differences in age, sex, calendar year, cohabitation, country of origin, and socioeconomic status. Results: Median magnesium concentration in drinking water at inclusion was 12.4 mg/L (range: 1.37–54.2 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94; 0.97) for the lowest magnesium quintile (<6.5 mg/L) as compared to the highest magnesium quintile (>21.9 mg/L). The adjusted IRR for mortality due to acute myocardial infarction and stroke was 1.22 (1.17; 1.27) and 0.96 (0.93; 0.99), respectively, for the lowest magnesium quintile as compared to the highest quintile A decreasing mortality due to acute myocardial infarction was seen with an increasing magnesium concentration in a dose–response manner. Conclusion: Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with an increased mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. Low concentrations of magnesium in drinking water were associated with decreased cardiovasc

For more than five decades, research has been conducted at Ny-Ålesund, in Svalbard, Norway, to understand the structure and functioning of High-Arctic ecosystems and the profound impacts on them of environmental change. Terrestrial, freshwater, glacial and marine ecosystems are accessible year-round.

For more than five decades, research has been conducted at Ny-Ålesund, in Svalbard, Norway, to understand the structure and functioning of High-Arctic ecosystems and the profound impacts on them of environmental change. Terrestrial, freshwater, glacial and marine ecosystems are accessible year-round.

Background. Patients admitted to the intensive care unit often have low serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, and zinc. We aim to describe the prevalence, management, characteristics, and outcomes of patients with low levels of these minerals in a large cohort of Danish ICU patients. Methods. In this multicenter cohort, we will include all adult ICU patients admitted to one of 10 ICUs during a six years period. Patients will be excluded if the ICU admission is post-operative after planned surgery, length of stay is < 24 hours, they are transferred from ICUs not participating in the study, or are without measurements of neither magnesium, phosphate nor zinc. First, we will do a descriptive assessment of the prevalence of low serum levels and management of supplementation according to different patient characteristics. Second, we will conduct a cohort study using prospectively registered outcome data, to assess associations between serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, and zinc respectively, and each of two principal outcomes: time to successful extubation and incident tachyarrhythmia. We will use a joint modelling approach for estimating the strengths of associations, combining time to event data and longitudinal data from repeated measurements of serum levels. Discussion. This study will provide information from a very large cohort of Danish ICU patients. Strengths of the study will be the large number of patients, the interconnection of data from several registers, and for the association analysis the use of a statistical approach making the optimal use of the repeated measures of serum levels. Limitations will be the risk of bias from unmeasured or unregistered confounding factors, and the lack of randomization in the observational design, which will prevent us from interpreting possible associations between serum levels and outcomes as definite effects on the outcome.

Background & Aims: Machine learning (ML) provides new approaches for prognostication through the identification of novel subgroups of patients. We explored whether ML could support disease sub-phenotyping and risk stratification in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Methods: ML was applied to an international dataset of PBC patients. The dataset was split into a derivation cohort (training set) and a validation cohort (validation set), and key clinical features were analysed. The outcome was a composite of liver-related death or liver transplantation. ML and standard survival analysis were performed. Results: The training set was composed of 11,819 subjects, while the validation set was composed of 1,069 subjects. ML identified four clusters of patients characterized by different phenotypes and long-term prognosis. Cluster 1 (n = 3566) included patients with excellent prognosis, whereas Cluster 2 (n = 3966) consisted of individuals at worse prognosis differing from Cluster 1 only for albumin levels around the limit of normal. Cluster 3 (n = 2379) included young patients with florid cholestasis and Cluster 4 (n = 1908) comprised advanced cases. Further sub-analyses on the dynamics of albumin within the normal range revealed that ursodeoxycholic acid-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x lower limit of normal (LLN) is associated with improved transplant-free survival. Conclusions: Unsupervised ML identified four novel groups of PBC patients with different phenotypes and prognosis and highlighted subtle variations of albumin within the normal range. Therapy-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x LLN should be considered a treatment goal.

Background & Aims: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. Methods: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). Results: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1–12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1–81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2–63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40–0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45–0.69; p <0.001). Conclusion: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. Lay summary: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated

Background: Fibrosis stage predicts prognosis in patients with chronic liver disease independent of aetiology, although its precise role in risk stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains undefined. Aim: To assess the utility of baseline fibrosis stage in predicting long-term outcomes in the context of biochemical risk stratification. Methods: In a large and globally representative cohort of patients with PBC, liver biopsies performed from 1980 to 2014 were evaluated. The predictive ability of histologic fibrosis stage in addition to treatment response at 1 year (Toronto/Paris-II criteria), as well as non-invasive markers of fibrosis (AST/ALT ratio [AAR], AST to platelet ratio index [APRI], FIB-4), for transplant-free survival was assessed with Cox proportional-hazards models. Results: There were 1828 patients with baseline liver biopsy. Advanced histologic fibrosis (stage 3/4) was an independent predictor of survival in addition to non-invasive measures of fibrosis with the hazard ratios ranging from 1.59 to 2.73 (P <.001). Patients with advanced histologic fibrosis stage had worse survival despite biochemical treatment response, with a 10-year survival of 76.0%-86.6% compared to 94.5%-95.1% depending on the treatment response criteria used. Poor correlations were observed between non-invasive measures of fibrosis and histologic fibrosis stage. Conclusion: Assessment of fibrosis stage grants prognostic value beyond biochemical treatment response at 1 year. This highlights the need to incorporate fibrosis stage in individual risk stratification in patients with PBC, partly to identify those that may derive benefit from novel therapies.

Mutations in ATP8B1 can lead to familial intrahepatic cholestasis type 1 (FIC1) deficiency, or progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis type 1 (PFIC1). The rarity of FIC1 deficiency has largely prevented a detailed analysis of its natural history, effects of predicted protein truncating mutations (PPTMs), and possible associations of serum bile acid (sBA) concentrations and surgical biliary diversion (SBD) with long-term outcome. We aimed to provide novel insights by using the largest genetically defined cohort of FIC1 deficiency patients to date. This multicenter, combined retrospective and prospective study included 130 patients with compound heterozygous or homozygous predicted pathogenic ATP8B1 variants. Patients were categorized according to the number of PPTMs (i.e., splice site, frameshift due to deletion or insertion, nonsense, duplication); FIC1-A (n=67; no PPTM), FIC1-B (n=29; one PPTM) or FIC1-C (n=34; two PPTMs). Survival analysis showed an overall native liver survival (NLS) of 44% at age 18y. NLS was comparable between FIC1-A, FIC1-B, and FIC1-C (%NLS at age 10y: 67%, 41%, and 59%, respectively; P=0.12), despite FIC1-C undergoing SBD less often (%SBD at age 10y: 65%, 57%, and 45%, respectively; P=0.03). sBAs at presentation were negatively associated with NLS (NLS at age 10y; sBAs <194 µmol/L: 49% versus sBAs ≥194 µmol/L: 15%; P=0.03). SBD decreased sBAs (230 [125-282] to 74 [11-177] μmol/L; P=0.005). SBD (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.28-1.03, P=0.06) and post-SBD sBA concentrations <65μmol/L (P=0.05) tended to be associated with improved NLS. Conclusion: Less than half of FIC1 deficiency patients reach adulthood with native liver. The number of PPTMs did not associate with the natural history or prognosis of FIC1 deficiency. sBA concentrations at initial presentation and after SBD provide limited prognostic information on long-term NLS.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a serum marker of cholestasis. We investigated whether serum level of GGT is a prognostic marker for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Methods: We analyzed data from patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group, comprising 14 centers in Europe and North America. We obtained measurements of serum GGT at baseline and time points after treatment. We used Cox model hazard ratios to evaluate the association between GGT and clinical outcomes, including liver transplantation and liver-related death. Results: Of the 2129 patients included in our analysis, 281 (13%) had a liver-related clinical endpoint. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years and 91% of patients were female patients. We found a correlation between serum levels of GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (r=0.71). Based on data collected at baseline and yearly for up to 5 years, higher serum level of GGT were associated with lower hazard for transplant-free survival. Serum level of GGT at 12 months after treatment higher than 3.2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients who required liver transplantation or with liver-related death at 10 years with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70. The risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death in patients with serum level of GGT above 3.2-fold the ULN, despite level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN, was higher compared to patients with level of GGT lower than 3.2-fold the ULN and level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN (P<.05). Including information on level of GGT increased the prognostic value of the Globe score. Conclusion: Serum level of GGT can be used to identify patients with PBC at risk for liver transplantation or death, and increase the prognostic value of ALP measurement. Our findings support the use of GGT as primary clinical endpoint in clinical trials. In patients with low serum level of ALP, a high level of GGT identifies those who might require treatm

Background: Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA may reflect intrahepatic HBV replication. Novel anti-viral drugs have shown potent HBV RNA decline without concomitant hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decrease. How this relates to off-treatment response is yet unclear. Aim: To study the degree of on-treatment viral antigen decline among patients with pronounced HBV RNA decrease in relation to off-treatment sustained response and HBsAg loss. Methods: HBV RNA, HBsAg and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) were quantified in patients with chronic hepatitis B who participated in two randomised controlled trials of peginterferon-based therapy. Sustained response (HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL) and/or HBsAg loss were assessed in patients with and without on-treatment HBV RNA response (either >2 log HBV RNA decline or >1 log decline resulting in an undetectable value at on-treatment week 24), stratified by concomitant HBsAg decline (<0.5/0.5-1/>1 log). Results: We enrolled 279 patients; 176 were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, and 103 were HBeAg-negative. Sustained response was achieved in 20.4% of patients. At on-treatment week 24, HBV RNA response was associated with higher sustained response rates (27.4% vs 13.0% in non-responders, P = 0.004). However, among patients with an HBV RNA response (n = 135), 56.4% did not experience >0.5 log HBsAg decline. Among HBV RNA responders, sustained response was achieved in 47.6% of those with >1 log HBsAg decline (n = 20/42), vs 16.0% with <0.5 log decline (n = 12/75, P = 0.001). Similar results were obtained with HBcrAg and when response was defined as HBsAg loss. Conclusions: In this cohort, many patients with HBV RNA response during peginterferon-based treatment did not experience HBsAg and/or HBcrAg decline. The absence of concomitant decline in these viral antigens was associated with low rates of treatment response and HBsAg loss. Future trials should therefore consider kinetics of combined bioma

Background: Trihalomethanes (THMs) are widespread disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water, and long-term exposure has been consistently associated with increased bladder cancer risk. Objective: We assessed THM levels in drinking water in the European Union as a marker of DBP exposure and estimated the attributable burden of bladder cancer. Methods: We collected recent annual mean THM levels in municipal drinking water in 28 European countries (EU28) from routine monitoring records. We estimated a linear exposure–response function for average residential THM levels and bladder cancer by pooling data from studies included in the largest international pooled analysis published to date in order to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for bladder cancer associated with the mean THM level in each country (relative to no exposure), population-attributable fraction (PAF), and number of attributable bladder cancer cases in different scenarios using incidence rates and population from the Global Burden of Disease study of 2016. Results: We obtained 2005–2018 THM data from EU26, covering 75% of the population. Data coverage and accuracy were heterogeneous among countries. The estimated population-weighted mean THM level was 11.7μg/L [standard deviation (SD) of 11.2]. The estimated bladder cancer PAF was 4.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5, 7.1] overall (range: 0–23%), accounting for 6,561 (95% CI: 3,389, 9,537) bladder cancer cases per year. Denmark and the Netherlands had the lowest PAF (0.0% each), while Cyprus (23.2%), Malta (17.9%), and Ireland (17.2%) had the highest among EU26. In the scenario where no country would exceed the current EU mean, 2,868 (95% CI: 1,522, 4,060; 43%) annual attributable bladder cancer cases could potentially be avoided. Discussion: Efforts have been made to reduce THM levels in the European Union. However, assuming a causal association, current levels in certain countries still could lead to a considerable burden of bladder cancer

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