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The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) will be a major step towards controlled energy fusion in tokamaks. Operation of the hot confined plasma inside the tokamak will have to be optimized and simulations will have to prove that each pulse conducted is feasible under the operational limits of the reactor. For such purpose a Pulse Design Simulator is developed at ITER. This workflow lacks a transport model to simulate the dynamics of the plasma caused by micro-instabilities driven by turbulences. The purpose of this thesis is the adaptation of such model into the Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), namely mapping the inputs and outputs of an existing code for its integration to the workflow. This work presents a fast 1D core transport code capable of simulating the evolution of the poloidal flux, the temperature evolution of both ions and electrons and the particle density transport. The model is coupled to a neural network regression of the transport model QuaLiKiz for the computation of first-principle based turbulent heat and particle transport coefficients., Internationella Termonukleära Experimentella Reaktorn (ITER) kommer att vara ett stort steg mot kontrollerad energifusion i tokamaker. Driften av det varma, instängda plasmaet inne i tokamaken måste optimeras, och simuleringar måste bevisa att varje pulsskötning är genomförbar inom reaktorns driftgränser. För detta ändamål utvecklas en pulsdessignsimulator vid ITER. Denna arbetsflöde saknar en transportmodell för att simulera plasmaets dynamik orsakad av mikroinstabiliteter drivna av turbulenser. Syftet med denna avhandling är anpassningen av en sådan modell till Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), nämligen att kartlägga in- och utdata av en befintlig kod för dess integration i arbetsflödet. Denna arbete presenterar en snabb 1D-kärntransportkod som kan simulera utvecklingen av den poloidala flödet, temperaturutvecklingen för både joner och elektroner samt partikeltäthetstransporten. Modellen är kopplad till en neural nätverksregression av transportmodellen QuaLiKiz för beräkning av första principbaserade turbulenta värme- och partikeltransportkoefficienter.

Agrivoltaic systems, which allow the coexistence of crop and electricity production on the same land, are an integrated water–energy–food nexus solution that allows the simultaneous attainment of conflicting Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to analyse experimental results on the responses of ley grass yield and quality to shadings in the first agrivoltaic system in Sweden. It also aims to validate an integrated modelling platform for assessing agrivoltaic systems' performances before installation. An economic analysis is carried out to compare the profitability of agrivoltaic versus conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems and, using a Monte Carlo Analysis, to identify the parameters that most affect the profitability. Despite the agrivoltaic systems’ supporting structures and photovoltaic modules producing an average ∼25% reduction in photosynthetically active radiation at ground level, no statistically significant difference was observed between the yield of the samples under the agrivoltaic system compared to the yield of the samples in the reference area. The agrivoltaic system attained land equivalent ratios of 1.27 and 1.39 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The validation results of the integrated modelling platform show that the sub-model concerning the crop yield response to shading conditions tends to underestimate ∼7% the actual average crop yield under the agrivoltaic system. The results of the economic analysis show that, from a net present value perspective, agrivoltaic systems have a profitability that is ∼30 times higher than a conventional crop rotation in Sweden.

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) will be a major step towards controlled energy fusion in tokamaks. Operation of the hot confined plasma inside the tokamak will have to be optimized and simulations will have to prove that each pulse conducted is feasible under the operational limits of the reactor. For such purpose a Pulse Design Simulator is developed at ITER. This workflow lacks a transport model to simulate the dynamics of the plasma caused by micro-instabilities driven by turbulences. The purpose of this thesis is the adaptation of such model into the Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), namely mapping the inputs and outputs of an existing code for its integration to the workflow. This work presents a fast 1D core transport code capable of simulating the evolution of the poloidal flux, the temperature evolution of both ions and electrons and the particle density transport. The model is coupled to a neural network regression of the transport model QuaLiKiz for the computation of first-principle based turbulent heat and particle transport coefficients., Internationella Termonukleära Experimentella Reaktorn (ITER) kommer att vara ett stort steg mot kontrollerad energifusion i tokamaker. Driften av det varma, instängda plasmaet inne i tokamaken måste optimeras, och simuleringar måste bevisa att varje pulsskötning är genomförbar inom reaktorns driftgränser. För detta ändamål utvecklas en pulsdessignsimulator vid ITER. Denna arbetsflöde saknar en transportmodell för att simulera plasmaets dynamik orsakad av mikroinstabiliteter drivna av turbulenser. Syftet med denna avhandling är anpassningen av en sådan modell till Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), nämligen att kartlägga in- och utdata av en befintlig kod för dess integration i arbetsflödet. Denna arbete presenterar en snabb 1D-kärntransportkod som kan simulera utvecklingen av den poloidala flödet, temperaturutvecklingen för både joner och elektroner samt partikeltäthetstransporten. Modellen är kopplad till en neural nätverksregression av transportmodellen QuaLiKiz för beräkning av första principbaserade turbulenta värme- och partikeltransportkoefficienter.

In the paper we present an overview of interpretive modelling of a database of JET-ILW 2021 D-T discharges using the TRANSP code. The main aim is to assess our capability of computationally reproducing the fusion performance of various D-T plasma scenarios using different external heating and D-T mixtures, and to understand the performance driving mechanisms. We find that interpretive simulations confirm a general power-law relationship between increasing external heating power and fusion output, which is supported by absolutely calibrated neutron yield measurements. A comparison of measured and computed D-T neutron rates shows that the calculations' discrepancy depends on the absolute neutron yield. The calculations are found to agree well with measurements for higher performing discharges with external heating power above similar to 20 MW , while low-neutron shots display an average discrepancy of around +40% compared to measured neutron yields. A similar trend is found for the ratio between thermal and beam-target fusion, where larger discrepancies are seen in shots with dominant beam-driven performance. We compare the observations to studies of JET-ILW D discharges, to find that on average the fusion performance is well modelled over a range of heating power, although an increased unsystematic deviation for lower-performing shots is observed. The ratio between thermal and beam-induced D-T fusion is found to be increasing weakly with growing external heating power, with a maximum value of greater than or similar to 1 achieved in a baseline scenario experiment. An evaluation of the fusion power computational uncertainty shows a strong dependence on the plasma scenario type and fusion drive characteristics, varying between +/- 25% and 35%. D-T fusion alpha simulations show that the ratio between volume-integrated electron and ion heating from alphas is less than or similar to 10 for the majority of analysed discharges. Alphas are computed to contribute between simi

Deuterium plasma discharges of the Divertor Tokamak Test facility (DTT) in different operational scenarios have been predicted by a comprehensive first-principle based integrated modelling activity using state-of-art quasi-linear transport models. The results of this work refer to the updated DTT configuration, which includes a device size optimisation (enlargement to R-0=2.19 a = 0.70 m) and upgrades in the heating systems. The focus of this paper is on the core modelling, but special attention was paid to the consistency with the scrape-off layer parameters required to achieve divertor plasma detachment. The compatibility of these physics-based predicted scenarios with the electromagnetic coil system capabilities was then verified. In addition, first estimates of DTT sawteeth and of DTT edge localised modes were achieved., QC 20230321

In the paper we present an overview of interpretive modelling of a database of JET-ILW 2021 D-T discharges using the TRANSP code. The main aim is to assess our capability of computationally reproducing the fusion performance of various D-T plasma scenarios using different external heating and D-T mixtures, and to understand the performance driving mechanisms. We find that interpretive simulations confirm a general power-law relationship between increasing external heating power and fusion output, which is supported by absolutely calibrated neutron yield measurements. A comparison of measured and computed D-T neutron rates shows that the calculations' discrepancy depends on the absolute neutron yield. The calculations are found to agree well with measurements for higher performing discharges with external heating power above ∼20 $\mathrm{MW}$, while low-neutron shots display an average discrepancy of around +40% compared to measured neutron yields. A similar trend is found for the ratio between thermal and beam-target fusion, where larger discrepancies are seen in shots with dominant beam-driven performance. We compare the observations to studies of JET-ILW D discharges, to find that on average the fusion performance is well modelled over a range of heating power, although an increased unsystematic deviation for lower-performing shots is observed. The ratio between thermal and beam-induced D-T fusion is found to be increasing weakly with growing external heating power, with a maximum value of $\gtrsim$1 achieved in a baseline scenario experiment. An evaluation of the fusion power computational uncertainty shows a strong dependence on the plasma scenario type and fusion drive characteristics, varying between ±25% and 35%. D-T fusion alpha simulations show that the ratio between volume-integrated electron and ion heating from alphas is $\lesssim$10 for the majority of analysed discharges. Alphas are computed to contribute between ∼15% and 40% to the total electron heat, This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium, funded by the European Union via the Euratom Research and Training Programme (Grant Agreement No. 101052200—EUROfusion). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be held responsible for them. This work has been part-funded by the EPSRC Energy Programme with grant number EP/W006839/1. The Barcelona Supercomputing Center part of this work has contributed through the Spanish National R&D Project PID2019-110854RB-I00 funded through MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. In addition BSC are grateful for the support received from the Departament de Recerca i Universitats de la Generalitat de Catalunya via the Research Group Fusion Group with code: 2021 SGR 00908. The Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión contribution was funded in part via the Spanish National R&D Project PID2021-127727OB-I00 funded through MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033., Peer Reviewed, "Article signat per 43 autors/es: Ž. Štancar, K.K. Kirov, F. Auriemma, H.-T. Kim, M. Poradziński, R. Sharma, R. Lorenzini, Z. Ghani, M. Gorelenkova, F. Poli, A. Boboc, S. Brezinsek, P. Carvalho, F.J. Casson, C.D. Challis, E. Delabie, D. Van Eester, M. Fitzgerald, J.M. Fontdecaba, D. Gallart, J. Garcia, L. Garzotti, C. Giroud, A. Kappatou, Ye.O. Kazakov, D.B. King, V.G. Kiptily, D. Kos, E. Lerche, E. Litherland-Smith, C.F. Maggi, P. Mantica, M.J. Mantsinen, M. Maslov, S. Menmuir, M. Nocente, H.J.C. Oliver, S.E. Sharapov, P. Sirén, E.R. Solano, H.J. Sun, G. Szepesi and JET Contributors", Postprint (published version)

Deuterium plasma discharges of the Divertor Tokamak Test facility (DTT) in different operational scenarios have been predicted by a comprehensive first-principle based integrated modelling activity using state-of-art quasi-linear transport models. The results of this work refer to the updated DTT configuration, which includes a device size optimisation (enlargement to R 0 = 2.19 m and a = 0.70 m) and upgrades in the heating systems. The focus of this paper is on the core modelling, but special attention was paid to the consistency with the scrape-off layer parameters required to achieve divertor plasma detachment. The compatibility of these physics-based predicted scenarios with the electromagnetic coil system capabilities was then verified. In addition, first estimates of DTT sawteeth and of DTT edge localised modes were achieved.

Nel programma di ricerca europeo per la fusione termonucleare controllata sono stati definiti otto differenti obiettivi a lungo termine. Una di queste sfide cruciali riguarda lo smaltimento (exhaust) di particelle ed energia provenienti da un reattore a fusione. Per sviluppare e testare delle strategie alternative atte a risolvere il problema dell'exhaust, una nuova macchina sperimentale è attualmente in costruzione in Italia a Frascati presso il centro di ricerca ENEA: il Divertor Tokamak Test facility (DTT). Per progettare un nuovo tokamak sono richiesti sforzi congiunti di fisici ed ingegneri. Al fine di ridurre i costi e minimizzare i rischi, uno strumento essenziale è la modellizzazione integrata il più completa possibile basata su principi primi. Il presente progetto di dottorato è incentrato sullo sviluppo di simulazioni multi-canale basate sulla fisica dei principali scenari operazionali di riferimento di DTT. Modelli all'avanguardia di trasporto, riscaldamento, fuelling ed equilibrio magnetico vengono integrati in queste simulazioni per predire in modo auto-consistente profili di plasma e parametri di scenario. Vengono anche calcolate tutte le interazioni non lineari tra sistemi di riscaldamento e plasma e tra i diversi canali di trasporto. Durante questo lavoro, le simulazioni di DTT sono state progressivamente migliorate perfezionandone le impostazioni e includendo un crescente numero di aspetti grazie all'aggiunta di codici appositi. Inoltre sono stati inclusi man mano aggiornamenti dei sistemi di riscaldamento, dell'equilibrio magnetico e della configurazione della macchina per seguire l'evoluzione del progetto. Il confronto tra simulazioni analoghe con differenti modelli quasi-lineari di trasporto ci rende fiduciosi dell'affidabilità dei profili di plasma predetti e ci permette di identificare i punti deboli dei modelli nei vari regimi in cui opera DTT. Questi modelli quasi-lineari sono stati inoltre validati mediante simulazioni girocinetiche nel, The European research roadmap towards thermonuclear fusion energy defined eight different missions to guide the long–term programme. One of these crucial challenges is the controlled power and particle exhaust from a fusion reactor. To develop and test alternative strategies to solve the exhaust problem, in Italy a new experimental device is now under construction at the ENEA Research Center in Frascati: the Divertor Tokamak Test facility (DTT). Designing a new tokamak requires concerted efforts of physicists and engineers. To reduce costs and minimise risks, a first–principle based integrated modelling as comprehensive as possible of plasma discharges is an essential tool. The focus of this PhD project was to perform the first physics–based multi–channel simulations of the main baseline operational scenarios of DTT. In these simulations state–of–art modules for transport, heating, fuelling, and magnetic equilibrium are integrated to achieve self–consistent predictions of plasma profiles and scenario parameters. All non–linear interactions between heating and plasma and between the different transport channels are also calculated. During this work, the DTT simulations have been progressively enhanced adding codes to include a growing number of aspects and refining run settings. Moreover, updates of the heating systems, magnetic equilibria, and device configuration have been included to comply with the evolving machine design. The comparison among analogous simulations with different quasi–linear transport models made us confident in the reliability of the predicted plasma profiles and allowed us to identify the weak points of the models in the various DTT operational regimes. A validation of these quasi–linear models against the gyrokinetic simulations in the specific DTT range of parameters was also performed. The prediction accuracy has been improved recursively by matching the core and SOL simulation boundary conditions to guarantee the core–edge–SOL consistency.

Nuclear fusion reactor plasmas will need to exhaust a significant proportion of energy flux through radiative processes, to enable acceptable divertor loads. This can be obtained by line radiation from impurities, injected from the plasma edge. There are however limitations on the sustainable impurity content, since radiation from the core can lead to a deleterious electron heat sink. Moreover, dilution of the main ions reduces the available fuel. Simultaneously, impurities have an impact on the turbulent transport, both by dilution and by changes in the effective charge. Recent experiments at JET point towards an improvement in plasma confinement in neon seeded discharges with respect to purer equivalent plasmas. In this paper the impact of the impurities on the confinement is studied, isolating various effects. First-principle-based integrated modelling with the QuaLiKiz quasilinear turbulent transport model explains the improvement by a combination of higher pedestal temperature, increased rotation shear, and impurity-induced microturbulence stabilization. These results are optimistic with respect to the maximum impurity levels allowed in ITER and future reactors. Comparison between QuaLiKiz and higher fidelity gyrokinetics has exposed issues with QuaLiKiz impurity peaking predictions with rotation.

An integrated framework is presented for carrying capacity assessment of aquaculture. The SUCCESS (System for Understanding Carrying Capacity, Ecological, and Social Sustainability) modelling framework uses a catchment to coast approach and is therefore able to partition organic and inorganic loading from disparate sources, resolve primary production, and simulate aquaculture carrying capacity. An application of this framework to bivalve shellfish culture in Dundrum Bay, Northern Ireland, is used to illustrate: (i) how High-Impact-Short-Term (HIST) events such as pulse discharges from sewer systems can play an important role in changing environmental conditions in the receiving water; (ii) how changes in land-based loads can affect bay-scale nutrient enrichment and shellfish yields; and (iii) the role bivalves such as oysters and mussels can play in top-down control of eutrophication symptoms. Our results show that in Dundrum Bay bottom-up control due to reduction of land-based loads can result in a 40% reduction in shellfish harvest, and that top-down control of phytoplankton and organic detritus by cultivated filter-feeders can reduce the percentile 90 of chlorophyll (i.e. the typical maximum) by over 20%. Both these results have important consequences for water quality and human use, and illustrate the complexity of integrated coastal management in multi-use systems. The capacity of SUCCESS to analyse source apportionment from land, interactions at the open ocean interface, aquaculture production and environmental effects, and key biogeochemical processes at the bay scale, as a digital twin of the soil-to-sea continuum, makes it an important toolset for policy makers tasked with managing complex coastal systems.

Solar radiation transmissivity in greenhouses is a key property largely determined by covering materials. This study compared tomato crop yields and their environmental performance of a polycarbonate rooftop greenhouse with alternative covering materials displaying higher solar transmissivity and lifetime performance. An integrated approach using experimental data with structural, energy modeling was used to model average lifetime crop productivities. At building functional unit (per m2·year), impacts varied between -29.0% and +24.0% compared to the current polycarbonate. Lifetime transmissivities improved up to 20.5% (4 mm-antireflective glass), leading to +46.6% of tomato yields (19.9 ± 2.2 kg/m2), and up to -33.9% of environmental impacts. Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene 60 µm-film resulted in 19.2 ± 2.3 kg tomatoes/m2 but improved environmental performance up to 41.7%. These results demonstrate the importance of employing integrated and life-cycle approaches to combine multiple trade-offs and dynamics within environmental assessments of greenhouse crops. The results are intended to contribute to improving greenhouse cultivation and sustainability., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

Developing Species Distribution Models (SDM) for marine exploited species is a major challenge in fisheries ecology. Classical modelling approaches typically rely on fish research survey data. They benefit from a standardized sampling design and a controlled catchability, but they usually occur once or twice a year and they may sample a relatively small number of spatial locations. Spatial monitoring of commercial data (based on logbooks crossed with Vessel Monitoring Systems) can provide an additional extensive data source to inform fish spatial distribution. We propose a spatial hierarchical framework integrating both data sources while accounting for preferential sampling (PS) of commercial data. From simulations, we demonstrate that PS should be accounted for in estimation when PS is actually strong. When commercial data far exceed scientific data, the later bring little information to spatial predictions in the areas sampled by commercial data, but bring information in areas with low fishing intensity and provide a validation dataset to assess the integrated model consistency. We applied the framework to three demersal species (hake, sole, and squids) in the Bay of Biscay that emphasize contrasted PS intensity and we demonstrate that the framework can account for several fleets with varying catchabilities and PS behaviours.

Developing Species Distribution Models (SDM) for marine exploited species is a major challenge in fisheries ecology. Classical modelling approaches typically rely on fish research survey data. They benefit from a standardized sampling design and a controlled catchability, but they usually occur once or twice a year and they may sample a relatively small number of spatial locations. Spatial monitoring of commercial data (based on logbooks crossed with Vessel Monitoring Systems) can provide an additional extensive data source to inform fish spatial distribution. We propose a spatial hierarchical framework integrating both data sources while accounting for preferential sampling (PS) of commercial data. From simulations, we demonstrate that PS should be accounted for in estimation when PS is actually strong. When commercial data far exceed scientific data, the later bring little information to spatial predictions in the areas sampled by commercial data, but bring information in areas with low fishing intensity and provide a validation dataset to assess the integrated model consistency. We applied the framework to three demersal species (hake, sole, and squids) in the Bay of Biscay that emphasize contrasted PS intensity and we demonstrate that the framework can account for several fleets with varying catchabilities and PS behaviours.

Previous studies with first-principle-based integrated modelling suggested that electron temperature gradient (ETG) turbulence may lead to an anti-gyroBohm isotope scaling in JET high-performance hybrid H-mode scenarios. A dedicated comparison study against higher-fidelity turbulence modelling invalidates this claim. Ion-scale turbulence with magnetic field perturbations included, can match the power balance fluxes within temperature gradient error margins. Multiscale gyrokinetic simulations from two distinct codes produce no significant ETG heat flux, demonstrating that simple rules-of-thumb are insufficient criteria for its onset.

Participatory integrated assessment (PIA) emerged as a response to conventional integrated assessment methods in the mid-to-late 1990s. PIA is based on the tenet that more inclusive stakeholder involvement may lead to increased accountability and legitimacy in decision-making, greater levels of trust and social learning between participants, and improved quality and relevancy of knowledge outputs. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review to update and deepen our understanding of the approaches, methods, opportunities, and challenges associated with PIA as applied at the catchment scale. Of the total 278 studies identified in our literature search, only 37 catchment-level cases presented a clear PIA application. From our review, lessons learnt were drawn in relation to the integration of less-easily quantified areas of social science, entry and exit planning in PIA, boundary work on issue cycles and accounting for the human dimension. We conclude that PIA is a potentially useful approach for navigating the dual social-ecological dimensions of current environmental and resource management issues, especially when projects include tailored objectives and methods, user-friendly outputs, and early and consistent stakeholder involvement. However, we also highlight gaps in the field concerning the integrative reach of PIA, PIA's real-world impact, and the relationship between PIA processes and outcomes along stages of environmental issue cycles. We conclude that further work is therefore still needed to help advance the field of PIA in both research and boundary work practice.

Life, services and activities within cities have commonly been studied by separate disciplines, each one independent from the others. One such approach is the computer simulation, which enables in-depth modelling and cost-effective evaluation of city phenomena. However, the adoption of integrated city simulations faces several barriers, such as managerial, social, and technical, despite its potential to support city planning and policymaking. This paper introduces the City Physiology: a new conceptual framework to facilitate the integration of city layers when designing holistic simulators. The physiology is introduced and applied through a process of three steps. Firstly, a literature review is offered in order to study the terminology and the progress already made towards integrated modelling of different urban systems. Secondly, interactions between urban systems are extracted from the approaches studied before. Finally, the pipeline to carry out the integration strategy is described. In addition to providing a conceptual tool for holistic simulations, the framework enables the discovery of new research lines generated by previously unseen connections between city layers. Being an open framework, available to all researchers to use and broaden, the authors of this paper envisage that it will be a valuable resource in establishing an exact science of cities., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

An integrated modelling methodology for the calculation of realistic plasma neutron sources for the JET tokamak has been developed. The computational chain comprises TRANSP plasma transport and DRESS neutron spectrum calculations, and their coupling to the MCNP neutron transport code, bridging plasma physics and neutronics. In the paper we apply the developed methodology to the analysis of neutron emission properties of deuterium and helium plasmas at JET, and validate individual modelling steps against neutron diagnostic measurements. Two types of JET discharges are modelled-baseline-like and three-ion radio-frequency scenarios-due to their diversity in plasma heating, characteristics of the induced fast ion population, and the imprint of these on neutron emission properties. The neutron emission modelling results are quantitatively compared to the total neutron yield from fission chambers, neutron emissivity profiles from the neutron camera, neutron spectra from the time-of-flight spectrometer, and neutron activation measurements. The agreement between measured and calculated quantities is found to be satisfactory for all four diagnostic systems within the estimated experimental and computational uncertainties. Additionally, the effect of neutrons not originating from the dominating D(D, n)He-3 reactions is studied through modelling of triton burnup DT neutrons, and, in mixed D-He-3 plasmas, neutrons produced in the Be-9(D, n gamma)B-10 reaction on impurities. It is found that these reactions can contribute up to several percent to the total neutron yield and dominate the neutron activation of samples. The effect of MeV-range fast ions on the neutron activation of In-115 and Al-27 samples is measured and computationally validated.

An intensive integrated modelling work of the main scenarios of the new Divertor Tokamak Test (DTT) facility with a single null divertor configuration has been performed using first principle quasi-linear transport models, in support of the design of the device and of the definition of its scientific work programme. First results of this integrated modelling work on DTT (R (0) = 2.14 m, a = 0.65 m) are presented here along with outcome of the gyrokinetic simulations used to validate the reduced models in the DTT range of parameters. As a result of this work, the heating mix has been defined, the size of device has been increased to R (0) = 2.19 m and a = 0.70 m, the use of pellets for fuelling has been recommended and reference profiles for diagnostic design, estimates of neutron yields and fast particle losses have been made available., QC 20220118

Predicting the impact of heating and current drive (H&CD) sources is essential to evaluate the performance of ITER plasmas and to subsequently optimise the scenarios for the four stages of the ITER research plan. This should be done in the context of global transport calculations of complete plasma discharges. For this purpose, a dedicated workflow has been developed in the ITER integrated modelling and analysis suite as a modular component to be used together with transport solvers to quantify the dynamics of H&CD sources for the different phases of a plasma discharge, including possible synergetic effects between the heating sources. This paper presents the results of the combined modelling of H&CD sources for the ITER DT baseline 15 MA/5.3 T scenario including the synergy between neutral beam injection (NBI) of deuterium, fusion-born alpha particles and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) at the fundamental frequency of deuterium, showing modest synergetic effects. The results of the combined H&CD sources for an ITER 7.5 MA/2.65 T helium plasma of the second pre-fusion power operation phase (PFPO-2) are also shown, exhibiting more significant synergetic effects between the fundamental ICRH minority hydrogen heating and NBI hydrogen beams. Finally, a study of electron cyclotron heating absorption for an ITER helium PFPO scenario at 7.5 MA/2.65 T is also presented with a discussion on the edge parasitic absorption that arises under specific conditions., QC 20211206

Runaway electron modelling efforts are motivated by the risk these energetic particles pose to large fusion devices. The sophisticated kinetic models can capture most features of the runaway electron generation but have high computational costs, which can be avoided by using computationally cheaper reduced kinetic codes. This paper compares the reduced kinetic and kinetic models to determine when the former solvers, based on analytical calculations assuming quasi-stationarity, can be used. The Dreicer generation rate is calculated by two different solvers in parallel in a workflow developed in the European integrated modelling framework, and this is complemented by calculations of a third code that is not yet integrated into the framework. Runaway Fluid, a reduced kinetic code, NORSE, a kinetic code using non-linear collision operator, and DREAM, a linearized Fokker-Planck solver, are used to investigate the effect of a dynamic change in the electric field for different plasma scenarios spanning across the whole tokamak-relevant range. We find that on time scales shorter than or comparable to the electron-electron collision time at the critical velocity for runaway electron generation, kinetic effects not captured by reduced kinetic models play an important role. This characteristic time scale is easy to calculate and can reliably be used to determine whether there is a need for kinetic modelling or cheaper reduced kinetic codes are expected to deliver sufficiently accurate results. This criterion can be automated, and thus it can be of great benefit for the comprehensive self-consistent modelling frameworks that are attempting to simulate complex events such as tokamak start-up or disruptions., QC 20210524

JET experiments have shown that the three-ion scenarios using waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) is an efficient way to build fast ion population through beam ion acceleration by radio frequency (RF) waves. Such a heating scheme is applied to plasmas with at least two thermal ion species. Analysis of mixed discharges with complex heating schemes requires a workflow that allows to model thermal and fast ion transport consistently. This paper is dedicated to modelling of a mixed plasma discharge with significant fraction of fast ions and contributes to development of fast ion transport models. For interpretive analysis with the TRANSP code a JET hydrogen-deuterium plasma discharge with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ICRF heating has been chosen. The task is complicated by NBI-ICRF synergy and plasma magnetohydrodynamic activity, like sawtooth crashes. D beam ions accelerated by RF waves form a high energy tail in fast ion distribution. Significant difference between the neutron rate computed by TRANSP and measured one is observed if the same diffusivity for electrons and ions is assumed. Sensitivity studies show that uncertainties in input plasma parameters and thermal ion transport models are crucial for modelling mixed plasma discharges and increased D transport is required to reach the plasma composition consistent with diagnostic measurements at the plasma edge. Fast ion redistribution by a sawtooth instability is characterised by non-resonant transport due to reconnection of magnetic field lines and resonant transport caused by resonance interaction between the instability and fast ions. With ORBIT simulations it has been shown that resonant interaction strongly affects fast ions of high energies, like beam ions accelerated by RF waves and fusion products. For the considered case, fast ion profiles simulated by ORBIT remain peaked after the sawtooth crashes.

The evolution of the JET high performance hybrid scenario, including central accumulation of the tungsten (W) impurity, is reproduced with predictive multi-channel integrated modelling over multiple confinement times using first-principle based core transport models. Eight transport channels (Ti,Te,j,nD,nBe,nNi,nW,omega

Reliable estimates of release or discard mortality (DM) rates for recreational and commercial fisheries are necessary for robust assessment of the effects of fishing on populations and for establishing effective regulatory measures concerning the release of fish. In situ experiments involving the tagging of released fish are most likely to produce accurate estimates given that experimental subjects are captured and released under representative fishery conditions. Data from electronic tags can be used to infer movement or behavioral patterns of released fish, from which mortality times can be derived to then estimate natural mortality and DM rates. However, resulting DM rate estimates are often of low precision (high variance) due to small sample sizes associated with the elevated cost of electronic tags. Alternatively, returns of traditional tags from small scale experiments constitute a relatively inexpensive means of estimating the relative DM rates of two or more groups (e.g., vitality or injury classes, capture methods) of released fish. Combining the two approaches when there are two or more groups of discarded individuals can be beneficial. First, results from the two methods can be used to assess whether experimental effects such as tag-related mortality could bias estimates of DM rates. Second, we propose a modelling approach that integrates data from these two types of tagging methods to produce absolute DM rate estimates that can be more precise than those obtained from electronic tagging alone. We show using simulations under which conditions precision is improved and how different allocations of effort to electronic and traditional tagging can be used to plan DM experiments with respect to the precision of estimates and cost. An example based on a recent study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

The thesis contributes to the development of more integrated approaches to advise Total Allowable Catch (TAC) decisions in mixed fisheries by: (1) accounting for technical, but also economic interactions among jointly harvested species, and (2) addressing the variety of sustainability requirements faced in such fisheries. The thesis notably contributes to improving the representation of human dynamics in the type of models used to advise TAC decisions in mixed fisheries, with a particular attention given to the representation of dynamics in the allocation of fishing effort, the trading of individual quotas and fish markets. The thesis also focuses on how the multiple dimensions of sustainability can be considered in the provision of fisheries management advice. The eco-viability approach is used here to identify future paths maintaining a fishery within ecologically, economically and socially acceptable bounds. The developed methodology has been applied to two mixed fisheries operating in different management contexts: the French demersal fishery in the Bay of Biscay and the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery., La thèse contribue au développement d’approches intégrées en appui aux décisions relatives aux Totaux Admissibles de Capture (TAC) dans des pêcheries mixtes en : (1) prenant en compte les interactions à la fois techniques et économiques de ces pêcheries, et (2) tenant compte des différentes dimensions de leur durabilité. Les développements de la thèse permettent notamment une meilleure représentation des dynamiques humaines dans le type de modèles impliqués dans l’élaboration des recommandations de gestion pour ces pêcheries. Une attention particulière est donnée à la modélisation des dynamiques de pêche, d’échange de quotas et de prix du poisson. La thèse oeuvre en outre à une meilleure prise en compte des dimensions économiques et sociales dans l’évaluation des options de gestion. Elle fait notamment appel à l’approche d’éco-viabilité afin d’identifier des niveaux de captures assurant la viabilité biologique, économique et sociale de deux pêcheries mixtes opérant dans des contextes de gestion différents : la pêcherie démersale du Golfe de Gascogne et la pêcherie démersale sud-est australienne.

Reliable estimates of release or discard mortality (DM) rates for recreational and commercial fisheries are necessary for robust assessment of the effects of fishing on populations and for establishing effective regulatory measures concerning the release of fish. In situ experiments involving the tagging of released fish are most likely to produce accurate estimates given that experimental subjects are captured and released under representative fishery conditions. Data from electronic tags can be used to infer movement or behavioral patterns of released fish, from which mortality times can be derived to then estimate natural mortality and DM rates. However, resulting DM rate estimates are often of low precision (high variance) due to small sample sizes associated with the elevated cost of electronic tags. Alternatively, returns of traditional tags from small scale experiments constitute a relatively inexpensive means of estimating the relative DM rates of two or more groups (e.g., vitality or injury classes, capture methods) of released fish. Combining the two approaches when there are two or more groups of discarded individuals can be beneficial. First, results from the two methods can be used to assess whether experimental effects such as tag-related mortality could bias estimates of DM rates. Second, we propose a modelling approach that integrates data from these two types of tagging methods to produce absolute DM rate estimates that can be more precise than those obtained from electronic tagging alone. We show using simulations under which conditions precision is improved and how different allocations of effort to electronic and traditional tagging can be used to plan DM experiments with respect to the precision of estimates and cost. An example based on a recent study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

The ITER Integrated Modelling and Analysis System (IMAS) has been adopted by the EUROfusion Consortium as a platform to facilitate the analysis and verification of data from multiple tokamaks for the integration of physics codes and the validation of physics models for fusion plasma simulations. Data mapping tools have been developed to translate the tokamaks’ native data format into IMAS. The mapping required the adoption of standard coordinates, conventions on direction of vectors, signs of fields, and harmonization of physics units. The mapped data have been verified by running integrated simulations using Kepler workflows. Results of the test using IMAS data are reported here along with an assessment of the system for present and future fusion applications., QC 20210308

The thesis contributes to the development of more integrated approaches to advise Total Allowable Catch (TAC) decisions in mixed fisheries by: (1) accounting for technical, but also economic interactions among jointly harvested species, and (2) addressing the variety of sustainability requirements faced in such fisheries. The thesis notably contributes to improving the representation of human dynamics in the type of models used to advise TAC decisions in mixed fisheries, with a particular attention given to the representation of dynamics in the allocation of fishing effort, the trading of individual quotas and fish markets. The thesis also focuses on how the multiple dimensions of sustainability can be considered in the provision of fisheries management advice. The eco-viability approach is used here to identify future paths maintaining a fishery within ecologically, economically and socially acceptable bounds. The developed methodology has been applied to two mixed fisheries operating in different management contexts: the French demersal fishery in the Bay of Biscay and the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery., La thèse contribue au développement d’approches intégrées en appui aux décisions relatives aux Totaux Admissibles de Capture (TAC) dans des pêcheries mixtes en : (1) prenant en compte les interactions à la fois techniques et économiques de ces pêcheries, et (2) tenant compte des différentes dimensions de leur durabilité. Les développements de la thèse permettent notamment une meilleure représentation des dynamiques humaines dans le type de modèles impliqués dans l’élaboration des recommandations de gestion pour ces pêcheries. Une attention particulière est donnée à la modélisation des dynamiques de pêche, d’échange de quotas et de prix du poisson. La thèse oeuvre en outre à une meilleure prise en compte des dimensions économiques et sociales dans l’évaluation des options de gestion. Elle fait notamment appel à l’approche d’éco-viabilité afin d’identifier des niveaux de captures assurant la viabilité biologique, économique et sociale de deux pêcheries mixtes opérant dans des contextes de gestion différents : la pêcherie démersale du Golfe de Gascogne et la pêcherie démersale sud-est australienne.

Reliable estimates of release or discard mortality (DM) rates for recreational and commercial fisheries are necessary for robust assessment of the effects of fishing on populations and for establishing effective regulatory measures concerning the release of fish. In situ experiments involving the tagging of released fish are most likely to produce accurate estimates given that experimental subjects are captured and released under representative fishery conditions. Data from electronic tags can be used to infer movement or behavioral patterns of released fish, from which mortality times can be derived to then estimate natural mortality and DM rates. However, resulting DM rate estimates are often of low precision (high variance) due to small sample sizes associated with the elevated cost of electronic tags. Alternatively, returns of traditional tags from small scale experiments constitute a relatively inexpensive means of estimating the relative DM rates of two or more groups (e.g., vitality or injury classes, capture methods) of released fish. Combining the two approaches when there are two or more groups of discarded individuals can be beneficial. First, results from the two methods can be used to assess whether experimental effects such as tag-related mortality could bias estimates of DM rates. Second, we propose a modelling approach that integrates data from these two types of tagging methods to produce absolute DM rate estimates that can be more precise than those obtained from electronic tagging alone. We show using simulations under which conditions precision is improved and how different allocations of effort to electronic and traditional tagging can be used to plan DM experiments with respect to the precision of estimates and cost. An example based on a recent study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Many cities are growing and becoming more densely populated, resulting in land use changes, which promotes an increase in urban heating. Nature-based solutions (NBS) are considered sustainable, cost-effective and multi-purpose solutions for these problems. While various studies assess the effects of NBS on urban heat or urban sprawl/compaction, no studies assess their cumulative effect. The main objective of this study is to assess the short-term and medium- to long-term impacts of NBS on urban heat fluxes, taking as a case study the city of Eindhoven in The Netherlands. An integrated modelling approach, composed of a coupled meteorological and urban energy balance model (WRF-SUEWS) and an hedonic pricing simulation model (SULD), is used to assess urban heat fluxes and urban compaction effects, respectively. Results show that, in the short-term, NBS have a local cooling effect due to an increase in green/blue spaces and, in the medium to long-term, an urban compaction effect due to attraction of residents from peripheral areas to areas surrounding attractive NBS. This study provides evidence that NBS can be used to reduce the effects of urban heating and urban sprawl and that an integrated modelling approach allows to better understand its overalleffects.

Many water resources are threatened with nutrient pollution worldwide. This holds for rivers exporting increasing amounts of nutrients from the intensification of food production systems and further urbanization. This riverine nutrient transport causes coastal eutrophication. This study aims to identify cost-effective management options to simultaneously reach environmental targets for river export of nitrogen and phosphorus by the Yangtze River (China) in 2050. A newly developed modelling approach is used that integrates the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) with a cost-optimization procedure, and accounts for socio-economic developments, land use and climate changes in a spatially explicit way. The environmental targets for river export of nutrients aim to reduce the gap between baseline and desirable nutrient export. Our baseline is based on MARINA projections for future river export of nutrients, while the desirable nutrient export reflects a low eutrophication potential. Results show the possibilities to close the gap in river export of both nutrients by 80–90% at a cost of 1–3 billion $ per year in 2050. Recycling of animal waste on cropland is an important cost-effective option; reducing synthetic fertilizer inputs provides an opportunity to compensate for the additional costs of the recycling and treatment of manure and wastewater. Our study provides new insights on the combination of cost-effective management options for sub-basins of the Yangtze. This can support the design of cost-effective and sub-basin specific management options for reducing future water pollution.

We analyse the impact of two large-scale regime shifts caused by disease incidence or climate change, and associated crop productivity and price changes, on banana-based smallholders in Uganda. We evaluate these farmers' vulnerability and assess the potential of using increased crop diversity to improve their resilience. We further explore trade-offs and synergies between environmental, economic and nutritional outcomes faced by the farmers in their decision making when a regime shift occurs. We simulate the large-scale scenarios with the IMPACT model and use the results obtained to assess their effect at the local level using the bio-economic farm-household model, FarmDESIGN. Our results indicate that climate change can lead to a regime shift that expands revenue variance, increases soil erosion and reduces vitamin A yield for farmers. Banana disease can negatively impact income levels and species diversity. We show that under both scenarios farmers have scope to reconfigure their farms and recover farm performance. Specifically, we discuss the benefits of species diversity; increasing agrobiodiversity by adding new crops increases the farm's adaptive capacity and resilience, allowing for much higher revenues, on-farm crop diversity and vitamin A production. The conceptual approach and the method we developed can be applied to assess the local synergies and trade-offs between crop diversity conservation, nutrition, environmental protection and human nutrition that farmers face as a result of global drivers. Our results offer a further understanding of how biodiverse systems respond to regime shifts, which can inform effective policy design. Our method can be also useful to help farmers manage their farms in a way to better meet their complex needs.

This paper outlines an approach towards improved rigour in tokamak turbulence transport model validation within integrated modelling. Gaussian process regression (GPR) techniques were applied for profile fitting during the preparation of integrated modelling simulations allowing for rigourous sensitivity tests of prescribed initial and boundary conditions as both fit and derivative uncertainties are provided. This was demonstrated by a JETTO integrated modelling simulation of the JET ITER-like-wall H-mode baseline discharge #92436 with the QuaLiKiz quasilinear turbulent transport model, which is the subject of extrapolation towards a deuterium-tritium plasma. The simulation simultaneously evaluates the time evolution of heat, particle, and momentum fluxes over similar to 10 confinement times, with a simulation boundary condition at rho(tor) = 0.85. Routine inclusion of momentum transport prediction in multi-channel flux-driven transport modelling is not standard and is facilitated here by recent developments within the QuaLiKiz model. Excellent agreement was achieved between the fitted and simulated profiles for n(e), T-e, T-i, and Omega(tor) within 2 sigma, but the simulation underpredicts the mid-radius Ti and overpredicts the core n(e) and T-e profiles for this discharge. Despite this, it was shown that this approach is capable of deriving reasonable inputs, including derivative quantities, to tokamak models from experimental data. Furthermore, multiple figures-of-merit were defined to quantitatively assess the agreement of integrated modelling predictions to experimental data within the GPR profile fitting framework., For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/ab065a

Relativistic runaway electrons are a major concern in tokamaks. Although significant theoretical development had been undertaken in recent decades, we still lack a self-consistent simulator that could simultaneously capture all aspects of this phenomenon. The European framework for Integrated Modelling (EU-IM) facilitates the integration of different plasma simulation tools by providing a standard data structure for communication that enables relatively easy integration of different physics codes. A three-level modelling approach was adopted for runaway electron simulations within the EU-IM. Recently, a number of runaway electron modelling modules have been integrated into this framework. The first level of modelling (Runaway Indicator) is limited to the indication if runaway electron generation is possible or likely. The second level (Runaway Fluid) adopts an approach similar to e.g. the GO code, using analytical formulas to estimate changes in the runaway electron current density. The third level is based on the solution of the electron kinetics. One such code is LUKE that can handle the toroidicity-induced effects by solving the bounce-averaged Fokker-Planck equation. Another approach is used in NORSE, which features a fully nonlinear collision operator that makes it capable of simulating major changes in the electron distribution, for example slide-away. Both codes handle the effect of radiation on the runaway distribution. These runaway-electron modelling codes are in different stages of integration into the EU-IM infrastructure, and into the European Transport Simulator (ETS), which is a fully capable modular 1.5D core transport simulator. The ETS with Runaway Fluid was benchmarked to the GO code implementing similar physics. Coherent integration of kinetic solvers requires more effort on the coupling, especially regarding the definition of the boundary between runaway and thermal populations, and on consistent calculation of resistivity. Some of these issues, QC 20191017

Future uncertainties and risks for socio-environmental systems are often addressed in the form of scenarios. This study aims to identify the biggest future risks and uncertainties for the study region Central Germany and the question which land use changes and impacts on selected ecosystem services related to agricultural production can be expected in the coming decades.For this purpose, we co-developed scenario storylines along the largest uncertainties, how the region may change with different stakeholders and used environmental models to simulate land-use changes and impacts on selected ecosystem services related to agricultural production.The study revealed that Climate change may have beneficial (e.g. maize, sugar beet) or adverse effects (e.g. barley, wheat) on crop yield levels, depending on crop type and level of climate change. In the scenarios crop production is additionally influenced by different levels of regional preferences influencing crop land extent (e.g., afforestation), crop management (e.g., organic production), and crop types used for food or bioenergy production. As driving factors such as climate change, land availability, and land management all influence agriculture, integrated studies like this are needed to assess future crop production. However, sustainability objectives may prefer other than the most productive agricultural pathways providing additional benefits such as regulating or cultural services.

Tokamak operation with W PFCs is associated with specific challenges for impurity control, which may be particularly demanding in the transition from stationary H-mode to L-mode. To address W control issues in this phase, dedicated experiments have been performed at JET including the variation of the decrease of the power and current, gas fuelling and central ion cyclotron heating (ICRH), and applying active ELM control by vertical kicks. The experimental results obtained demonstrate the key role of maintaining ELM control to control the W concentration in the exit phase of H-modes with slow (ITER-like) ramp-down of the neutral beam injection power in JET. For these experiments, integrated fully predictive core+edge+SOL transport modelling studies applying discrete models for the description of transients such as sawteeth and ELMs have been performed for the first time with the JINTRAC suite of codes for the entire transition from stationary H-mode until the time when the plasma would return to L-mode focusing on the W transport behaviour. Simulations have shown that the existing models can appropriately reproduce the plasma profile evolution in the core, edge and SOL as well as W accumulation trends in the termination phase of JET H-mode discharges as function of the applied ICRH and ELM control schemes, substantiating the ambivalent effect of ELMs on W sputtering on one side and on edge transport affecting core W accumulation on the other side. The sensitivity with respect to NB particle and momentum sources has also been analysed and their impact on neoclassical W transport has been found to be crucial to reproduce the observed W accumulation characteristics in JET discharges. In this paper the results of the JET experiments, the comparison with JINTRAC modelling and the adequacy of the models to reproduce the experimental results are described and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of these models for the extrapolation of the applied W accumulatio, For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6587/aabf52

For the first time, over five confinement times, the self-consistent flux driven time evolution of heat, momentum transport and particle fluxes of electrons and multiple ions including Tungsten (W) is modeled within the integrated modeling platform JFTTO (Romanelli et al 2014 Plasma Fusion Res. 9 1-4), using first principle-based codes: namely, QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036) for turbulent transport and NEO (Belli and Candy 2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 95010) for neoclassical transport. For a JET-ILW pulse, the evolution of measured temperatures, rotation and density profiles are successfully predicted and the observed W central core accumulation is obtained. The poloidal asymmetries of the W density modifying its neoclassical and turbulent transport are accounted for. Actuators of the W core accumulation are studied: removing the central particle source annihilates the central W accumulation whereas the suppression of the torque reduces significantly the W central accumulation. Finally, the presence of W slightly reduces main ion heat turbulent transport through complex nonlinear interplays involving radiation, effective charge impact on ITG and collisionality., For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/aac780

Numerical scan at constant shows that core and scrape-off layer (SOL) radiations do not depend on the plasma current (I-p). Whereas the SOL radiation increases with seeding, the core radiation, however, does not continue to increase with seeding but rolls over at higher seeding rates in the simulations. The core plasma contamination by W ions is low, c(W) << 10(-4). When the seeding starts, an increase in radiation power leading to a reduction in P-loss = (P-aux - P-rad) is observed, influencing the plasma confinement. The power scan at constant I-p indicates that the core radiation, P-plate, P-SOL (and even SOL radiation), saturates with seeding. In addition, strong dilution with increasing seeding (Z(eff) >> 3) and large W concentrations with increasing power are found. Comparing neon with nitrogen seeding, it is seen that neon leads to slightly larger total radiation than nitrogen. However, that is achieved with much higher plasma contamination (Z(eff) approximate to 4-5) and dilution in the case of Ne, and simultaneously the power crossing the separatrix is lower for Ne than for N, indicating better H-mode performance in N-2-seeded discharges., For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ctpp.201700118

Tokamak operation with W PFCs is associated with specific challenges for impurity control, which may be particularly demanding in the transition from stationary H-mode to L-mode. To address W control issues in this phase, dedicated experiments have been performed at JET including the variation of the decrease of the power and current, gas fuelling and central ion cyclotron heating (ICRH), and applying active ELM control by vertical kicks. The experimental results obtained demonstrate the key role of maintaining ELM control to control the W concentration in the exit phase of H-modes with slow (ITER-like) ramp-down of the neutral beam injection power in JET. For these experiments, integrated fully predictive core+edge+SOL transport modelling studies applying discrete models for the description of transients such as sawteeth and ELMs have been performed for the first time with the JINTRAC suite of codes for the entire transition from stationary H-mode until the time when the plasma would return to L-mode focusing on the W transport behaviour. Simulations have shown that the existing models can appropriately reproduce the plasma profile evolution in the core, edge and SOL as well as W accumulation trends in the termination phase of JET H-mode discharges as function of the applied ICRH and ELM control schemes, substantiating the ambivalent effect of ELMs on W sputtering on one side and on edge transport affecting core W accumulation on the other side. The sensitivity with respect to NB particle and momentum sources has also been analysed and their impact on neoclassical W transport has been found to be crucial to reproduce the observed W accumulation characteristics in JET discharges. In this paper the results of the JET experiments, the comparison with JINTRAC modelling and the adequacy of the models to reproduce the experimental results are described and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of these models for the extrapolation of the applied W accumulatio, QC 20200420

For the first time, over five confinement times, the self-consistent flux driven time evolution of heat, momentum transport and particle fluxes of electrons and multiple ions including Tungsten (W) is modeled within the integrated modeling platform JFTTO (Romanelli et al 2014 Plasma Fusion Res. 9 1-4), using first principle-based codes: namely, QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036) for turbulent transport and NEO (Belli and Candy 2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 95010) for neoclassical transport. For a JET-ILW pulse, the evolution of measured temperatures, rotation and density profiles are successfully predicted and the observed W central core accumulation is obtained. The poloidal asymmetries of the W density modifying its neoclassical and turbulent transport are accounted for. Actuators of the W core accumulation are studied: removing the central particle source annihilates the central W accumulation whereas the suppression of the torque reduces significantly the W central accumulation. Finally, the presence of W slightly reduces main ion heat turbulent transport through complex nonlinear interplays involving radiation, effective charge impact on ITG and collisionality., QC 20200416

Numerical scan at constant shows that core and scrape-off layer (SOL) radiations do not depend on the plasma current (I-p). Whereas the SOL radiation increases with seeding, the core radiation, however, does not continue to increase with seeding but rolls over at higher seeding rates in the simulations. The core plasma contamination by W ions is low, c(W) << 10(-4). When the seeding starts, an increase in radiation power leading to a reduction in P-loss = (P-aux - P-rad) is observed, influencing the plasma confinement. The power scan at constant I-p indicates that the core radiation, P-plate, P-SOL (and even SOL radiation), saturates with seeding. In addition, strong dilution with increasing seeding (Z(eff) >> 3) and large W concentrations with increasing power are found. Comparing neon with nitrogen seeding, it is seen that neon leads to slightly larger total radiation than nitrogen. However, that is achieved with much higher plasma contamination (Z(eff) approximate to 4-5) and dilution in the case of Ne, and simultaneously the power crossing the separatrix is lower for Ne than for N, indicating better H-mode performance in N-2-seeded discharges., QC 20200416

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored., QC 20180228

The GR4H lumped hourly rainfall–runoff model was assessed for its integration in a ridge-to-reef modelling framework. Particular attention was paid to rainfall representation, robustness of parameter estimates and ability to reproduce main runoff features. The study was conducted in four tropical mountainous watersheds in New Caledonia, exposed to intense rainfall events, large annual climatic variations triggered by El Niño oscillation, and wildfires. The inverse distance and elevation weighting algorithm outperformed other classical rainfall interpolation methods under data-limited conditions. The time-span of data needed for robust calibration was site-specific and varied from 6–7 years to 10 years, which may be linked to El Niño events and to wildfires. With sufficient data, simulation quality was equivalent during calibration and validation periods. The GR4H model was generally able to simulate both flash floods and large annual variations. The model was more reliable when simulating wet years and watersheds not subject to land-cover changes.

For the first time, over five confinement times, the self-consistent flux driven time evolution of heat, momentum transport and particle fluxes of electrons and multiple ions including Tungsten (W) is modeled within the integrated modeling platform JETTO (Romanelli et al 2014 Plasma Fusion Res. 9 1–4), using first principle-based codes: namely, QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036) for turbulent transport and NEO (Belli and Candy 2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 95010) for neoclassical transport. For a JET-ILW pulse, the evolution of measured temperatures, rotation and density profiles are successfully predicted and the observed W central core accumulation is obtained. The poloidal asymmetries of the W density modifying its neoclassical and turbulent transport are accounted for. Actuators of the W core accumulation are studied: removing the central particle source annihilates the central W accumulation whereas the suppression of the torque reduces significantly the W central accumulation. Finally, the presence of W slightly reduces main ion heat turbulent transport through complex nonlinear interplays involving radiation, effective charge impact on ITG and collisionality.

[EN] We propose the novel integrated modelling procedure 3H-EMC for the determination of the environmental flow in rivers and streams; 3H-EMC combines Hydrological, Hydrodynamic and Habitat modelling with the use of the Environmental Management Classes (EMCs) that are defined by the Global Environmental Flow Calculator. We apply 3H-EMC in the Sperchios River in Central Greece, in which water abstractions for irrigation cause significant environmental impacts. Calculations of the hydrodynamic-habitat model, in which the large and the small chub are the main fish species, suggest discharge values that range from 1.0 m3/s to 4.0 m3/s. However, hydrological modelling indicates that it is practically difficult to achieve discharges that are higher than approximately 1.0-1.5 m3/s. Furthermore, legislation suggests significantly lower values (0.4-0.5 m3/s) that are unacceptable from the ecological point of view. This behaviour shows that a non-integrated approach, which is based only on hydrodynamic-habitat modelling does not necessarily result in realistic environmental flows, and thus an integrated approach is required. We propose the value of 1.0 m3/s as the "optimum" environmental flow for Sperchios River, because (a) it satisfies the habitat requirements, as expressed by the values of weighted useable area that are equal to 2180 and 1964 m2 for the large and small chub, respectively, and correspond to 82 and 95% of their respective maximum values, (b) it is consistent with the requirements of Environmental Classes A and B, whose percentiles are higher than 75% for discharge (77.2%) and for habitat availability (>83.5% for the large chub and >85.0% for the small chub), (c) it is practically achievable from the hydrological point of view, and (d) it is higher than the value proposed by the Greek legislation. The proposed modelling approach can be applied to any river or stream using the same or similar modelling tools, which should be linked via suitable coupling algori

[EN] We propose the novel integrated modelling procedure 3H-EMC for the determination of the environmental flow in rivers and streams; 3H-EMC combines Hydrological, Hydrodynamic and Habitat modelling with the use of the Environmental Management Classes (EMCs) that are defined by the Global Environmental Flow Calculator. We apply 3H-EMC in the Sperchios River in Central Greece, in which water abstractions for irrigation cause significant environmental impacts. Calculations of the hydrodynamic-habitat model, in which the large and the small chub are the main fish species, suggest discharge values that range from 1.0 m3/s to 4.0 m3/s. However, hydrological modelling indicates that it is practically difficult to achieve discharges that are higher than approximately 1.0-1.5 m3/s. Furthermore, legislation suggests significantly lower values (0.4-0.5 m3/s) that are unacceptable from the ecological point of view. This behaviour shows that a non-integrated approach, which is based only on hydrodynamic-habitat modelling does not necessarily result in realistic environmental flows, and thus an integrated approach is required. We propose the value of 1.0 m3/s as the "optimum" environmental flow for Sperchios River, because (a) it satisfies the habitat requirements, as expressed by the values of weighted useable area that are equal to 2180 and 1964 m2 for the large and small chub, respectively, and correspond to 82 and 95% of their respective maximum values, (b) it is consistent with the requirements of Environmental Classes A and B, whose percentiles are higher than 75% for discharge (77.2%) and for habitat availability (>83.5% for the large chub and >85.0% for the small chub), (c) it is practically achievable from the hydrological point of view, and (d) it is higher than the value proposed by the Greek legislation. The proposed modelling approach can be applied to any river or stream using the same or similar modelling tools, which should be linked via suitable coupling algori

For the first time, over five confinement times, the self-consistent flux driven time evolution of heat, momentum transport and particle fluxes of electrons and multiple ions including Tungsten (W) is modeled within the integrated modeling platform JETTO (Romanelli et al 2014 Plasma Fusion Res. 9 1–4), using first principle-based codes: namely, QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036) for turbulent transport and NEO (Belli and Candy 2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 95010) for neoclassical transport. For a JET-ILW pulse, the evolution of measured temperatures, rotation and density profiles are successfully predicted and the observed W central core accumulation is obtained. The poloidal asymmetries of the W density modifying its neoclassical and turbulent transport are accounted for. Actuators of the W core accumulation are studied: removing the central particle source annihilates the central W accumulation whereas the suppression of the torque reduces significantly the W central accumulation. Finally, the presence of W slightly reduces main ion heat turbulent transport through complex nonlinear interplays involving radiation, effective charge impact on ITG and collisionality.

Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly., Water Resources

For the first time, over five confinement times, the self-consistent flux driven time evolution of heat, momentum transport and particle fluxes of electrons and multiple ions including Tungsten (W) is modeled within the integrated modeling platform JETTO (Romanelli et al 2014 Plasma Fusion Res. 9 1–4), using first principle-based codes: namely, QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036) for turbulent transport and NEO (Belli and Candy 2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 95010) for neoclassical transport. For a JET-ILW pulse, the evolution of measured temperatures, rotation and density profiles are successfully predicted and the observed W central core accumulation is obtained. The poloidal asymmetries of the W density modifying its neoclassical and turbulent transport are accounted for. Actuators of the W core accumulation are studied: removing the central particle source annihilates the central W accumulation whereas the suppression of the torque reduces significantly the W central accumulation. Finally, the presence of W slightly reduces main ion heat turbulent transport through complex nonlinear interplays involving radiation, effective charge impact on ITG and collisionality.

The GR4H lumped hourly rainfall–runoff model was assessed for its integration in a ridge-to-reef modelling framework. Particular attention was paid to rainfall representation, robustness of parameter estimates and ability to reproduce main runoff features. The study was conducted in four tropical mountainous watersheds in New Caledonia, exposed to intense rainfall events, large annual climatic variations triggered by El Niño oscillation, and wildfires. The inverse distance and elevation weighting algorithm outperformed other classical rainfall interpolation methods under data-limited conditions. The time-span of data needed for robust calibration was site-specific and varied from 6–7 years to 10 years, which may be linked to El Niño events and to wildfires. With sufficient data, simulation quality was equivalent during calibration and validation periods. The GR4H model was generally able to simulate both flash floods and large annual variations. The model was more reliable when simulating wet years and watersheds not subject to land-cover changes.