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Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717 more...

Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717 more...

Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717 more...

Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717 more...

Background Article 12 of the Paris Agreement summons the signing parties to co-operate in improving the education of their citizens on climate change and related matters. The article thereby acknowledges the importance of citizens’ support and understanding of climate change and needed measures to fight climate change. This work aims to inform European citizens on how climate change-related policies affect the power sector in Europe. For this purpose, a serious game, based on sound principles of energy systems analysis, has been developed to allow players to explore how key policy decisions affect capacity mix, investment needs, and electricity costs. Results The game is based on more than 1700 scenarios run through an open-source and accessible, yet technologically detailed, myopic energy system optimisation model for the electricity supply in the EU27 + 3. The game allows the user to take the role of a decision-maker and make decisions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 regarding the usage of CCS, biomass imports, cross-border electricity transmission and the pace of emission reductions. The user is then presented with economic, social, and environmental impacts of these choices. These impacts are, for example, measured and illustrated in the development of accumulated CO2 emissions per capita, levelised cost of electricity, and investment need per citizen. Conclusion The Power Decisions Game provides a first-of-its-kind open-source infrastructure that allows non-modellers to explore the impact of key decisions and preferences on the design of the future European power system. Furthermore, it provides insights on the consequences of short-sighted decision making. The game can be used to facilitate policy-science discussions., QC 20240717 more...

In this deliverable, factors impacting effective replication of Low Temperature (LT) District Heating and Cooling (DHC) networks with Low Temperature Heat (LTH) and Renewable Energy (RE) sources integration are analyzed. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal and Environmental) analysis is performed for seven European countries, which host one or more REWARDHeat demonstrators.The PESTLE analysis was performed in a three-step process. The first step was data collection for each of the components included in the PESTLE analysis through literature reviews, interviews with the demo-sites, surveys distributed to and answered by the customers of the existing DH systems and energy systems modelling using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator for understanding the environmental impact long term. The second step was to identify and prioritize key factors identified for each of the PESTLE components. The third step was to rate the identified key factors together with experts from each demo-site country. The key factors were rated either as a barrier (major or minor) or as an opportunity (major or minor).Overall, the results of the PESTLE analysis show that there are more opportunities than barriers for the replication of LTDHC networks in the investigated countries. Opportunities mainly arise from the ambitious political goal of the EU to become climate-neutral by 2050. The EU goal leads to ambitious national targets for the Heating and Cooling (HC) sectors, which are still greatly dependent on the use of fossil fuels. Positive customers’ opinions and the current characteristics of the HC sectors in the investigated countries are also identified as opportunities for the development of LTDHC networks. At the country level, Denmark and Sweden are the countries in which conventional DH networks are well-established and it is in these countries the most opportunities for LTDHC can be found. A tradition of investing in large, centralized he more...

I rapporten undersöks hur framtida höga elbehov i flera sektorer (el- och värmeproduktion, bostäder och service, samt industri) kan komma att påverka framtida utsläpp av NOX och små partiklar (PM2,5). Ökad elektrifiering riskerar att fördröja den pågående utsläppsminskningen av NOX till år 2030 men skynda på utsläppsminskningen till år 2050. Effekten på den pågående utsläppsminskningen av PM2,5 riskerar vara fördröjande både år 2030 och 2050. more...

In this deliverable, factors impacting effective replication of Low Temperature (LT) District Heating and Cooling (DHC) networks with Low Temperature Heat (LTH) and Renewable Energy (RE) sources integration are analyzed. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal and Environmental) analysis is performed for seven European countries, which host one or more REWARDHeat demonstrators.The PESTLE analysis was performed in a three-step process. The first step was data collection for each of the components included in the PESTLE analysis through literature reviews, interviews with the demo-sites, surveys distributed to and answered by the customers of the existing DH systems and energy systems modelling using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator for understanding the environmental impact long term. The second step was to identify and prioritize key factors identified for each of the PESTLE components. The third step was to rate the identified key factors together with experts from each demo-site country. The key factors were rated either as a barrier (major or minor) or as an opportunity (major or minor).Overall, the results of the PESTLE analysis show that there are more opportunities than barriers for the replication of LTDHC networks in the investigated countries. Opportunities mainly arise from the ambitious political goal of the EU to become climate-neutral by 2050. The EU goal leads to ambitious national targets for the Heating and Cooling (HC) sectors, which are still greatly dependent on the use of fossil fuels. Positive customers’ opinions and the current characteristics of the HC sectors in the investigated countries are also identified as opportunities for the development of LTDHC networks. At the country level, Denmark and Sweden are the countries in which conventional DH networks are well-established and it is in these countries the most opportunities for LTDHC can be found. A tradition of investing in large, centralized he more...

I rapporten undersöks hur framtida höga elbehov i flera sektorer (el- och värmeproduktion, bostäder och service, samt industri) kan komma att påverka framtida utsläpp av NOX och små partiklar (PM2,5). Ökad elektrifiering riskerar att fördröja den pågående utsläppsminskningen av NOX till år 2030 men skynda på utsläppsminskningen till år 2050. Effekten på den pågående utsläppsminskningen av PM2,5 riskerar vara fördröjande både år 2030 och 2050. more...

In 2019, the Nordic countries issued a common declaration to make the region carbon neutral. The declaration commits the countries to assess scenarios for how to achieve carbon neutrality, including the implications such scenarios would entail for various sectors. The declaration emphasised the necessity and benefit of collaborative action and invited the Nordic Council of Ministers to prepare a proposal on how to ensure that the Nordic region to fulfil their part of the Paris Climate Agreement. Three Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios were developed to support this work. These scenarios identified five solution tracks that can deliver carbon neutrality by 2050: direct electrification; PtX; bioenergy; CCS technologies; and behavioural change. More importantly, over the next decade, the rate of necessary emission reductions needs to happen at a pace five times faster than currently achieved. more...

In 2019, the Nordic countries issued a common declaration to make the region carbon neutral. The declaration commits the countries to assess scenarios for how to achieve carbon neutrality, including the implications such scenarios would entail for various sectors. The declaration emphasised the necessity and benefit of collaborative action and invited the Nordic Council of Ministers to prepare a proposal on how to ensure that the Nordic region to fulfil their part of the Paris Climate Agreement. Three Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios were developed to support this work. These scenarios identified five solution tracks that can deliver carbon neutrality by 2050: direct electrification; PtX; bioenergy; CCS technologies; and behavioural change. More importantly, over the next decade, the rate of necessary emission reductions needs to happen at a pace five times faster than currently achieved. more...

Bornholm plays a central role in the future offshore power expansion in the Baltic Sea and as a node between future interconnections between countries. The necessity to store/convert surplus power puts Bornholm in position to be the first natural energy hub. Bornholm can be not only the centre for electrical equipment such as substations but also a centre for P2X production from offshore wind power. The production of electrofuels through P2X technologies can penetrate the transport sector in Bornholm, the hardest to decarbonise, starting with the highspeed ferries to Ystad and Køge, which use in Rønne Havn as their base. The needs to comply with existing and imminent stricter regulations create the necessity for an immediate transition, before a fleet renewal. Therefore, this study investigates the conversion of the hydrogen, produced using offshore wind electricity, into methanol, whose use as a fuel is mature and does not require substantial changes to the fleet. In this work, three placements for a P2X facility, with a size able to satisfy Rønne Havn demand, are investigated: inside the wind turbines, in Bornholm and Copenhagen. The following results are reached. o The fuel demand for the ferries in Rønne Havn, including all the operations in the port, is estimated to be 237,000 MWh per year (equivalent to 23,300 m3 diesel per year). o The high consumption, 134 MWh per round-trip, of the high-speed ferry currently used creates a barrier to the direct electrification of the ferry, due to high capital cost of the battery and low energy density. o If the electrolyser can access only the electric energy from a 2 GW offshore wind power park near Bornholm, the cost of producing hydrogen in Bornholm is lower than the case in which it is produced in Copenhagen or inside the wind turbine, with a cost of 3-4 €/kg. o The cost of producing H2 in Bornholm and transmitting it via a pipeline to Copenhagen is on the same range of producing more...

Data centres (DCs) are expected to satisfy the rising demand for internet services. Denmark alone is expected to host several large-scale DCs, whose demand for electricity in 2040 may reach 33% of 2017 national electricity consumption. Understanding the operation and interactions of DCs with energy systems is key to understanding their impacts on installed capacities, costs and emissions. The present paper makes three contributions in this regard. First, we introduce a thermodynamic model that relates the power consumption of DCs to their production of excess heat (EH). Second, the results are scaled up to represent DCs in a national energy-system model for the analysis of different scenarios. Third, scenarios are generated and analysed to quantify the impact of DCs on the Danish energy system until 2050. The results show that DCs might have significant impacts on Denmark’s power and district heating (DH) sectors. First, the power demand from DCs translates into an additional 3–6 GW of offshore wind capacity. Second, EH from DCs is beneficial to the whole energy system, the entire quantity of EH being utilized in four out of five scenarios. EH recovery from DCs is economically beneficial, providing from 4% to 27% of Denmark’s DH after 2040. more...

Water is paramount for the operation of energy systems, for securing food supply and for the industry and municipalities. Intersectoral competition for water resources can negatively affect water scarce regions by e.g. power plants shutdowns, poor agricultural yields, and lack of potable water. Future economic and population growth as well as climate change is likely to exacerbate these patterns. However, models used for energy system management and planning in general do not properly include water availability which can lead to improper representations of water-energy interlinkages. The paper initially highlights the water usage rates of current technologies within electricity generation and technologies with a potential to reduce water usage, electricity consumption or GHG emissions. Secondly, the paper presents currently available data on current and future projected water resources as well as data on energy statistics relevant to water-energy nexus studies. Thirdly, implementation cases are presented showing examples of water-energy nexus studies for the data presented. Finally, the paper highlights main challenges in studying the linkage between water and energy. We find a substantial gap in the general availability and quality of regional and global data for detailed quantitative analyses and also identify a need for standardization of formats and data collection methodologies across data and disciplines. An effort towards a coordinated, and sustained open-access data framework with energy sector water usage at fine spatio-temporal scales alongside hydro-climatic observation and model data using common forcings and scenarios for future projections (of climate, socio-economy and technology) is therefore recommended for future water-energy nexus studies. more...

As Denmark progresses towards a carbon neutral future, energy system models are required to address the challenges of the energy transition. This article describes design, input data and current usage of TIMES-DK, the first Danish energy system model that includes the complete national energy system, covering long-term technology investments. The article aims at explaining the modelling approach; highlighting strengths and reflecting upon limitations of the model; illustrating possible applications of TIMES-DK and inspiring new model developments. Some of the key strengths of the model include simultaneous optimisation of operation and investments across the complete energy system over the whole modelling horizon, explicit representation of the most important sectors of the economy, modular structure and the possibility of linking to a computable general equilibrium model for an additional insight on, e.g. public finance or CO2-leakage. TIMES-DK is being developed in close collaboration between an energy agency, a university and a consulting firm, to improve its robustness, relevance and impact on policy making. It allows for a wide range of applications including exploratory energy scenarios and policy analysis. To meet challenges of the future, further development of the model is needed and consequently the article provides references to ongoing projects addressing current development needs, such as improved representation of transport and flexible handling of the temporal dimension. To support a democratic and transparent process around decisions for the future Danish energy system, TIMES-DK should become available to interested parties. more...

In this paper, an innovative agent-based model is developed to simulate emergent patterns arising from individual actions to analyze opportunities for modal shift in Denmark (ABMoS-DK). The modeling process simulates the interaction between travelers (agents) and the network, and applies a heuristic algorithm to model travelers’ rational decision making process based on tangible costs (ticket price, fixed and variable operation and maintenance costs) and Value of Travel Time (VOTT) explained by Value of Time (VoT), travel time and level of service. The traveler is described by a set of socio-economic attributes (income, family structure, place of residence, car/bike ownership) and the utility is derived from properties of alternative modes to determine whether to use non-motorized, public or private transport. Fluctuation of tangible costs and value of travel time can provide comparative advantages to the alternative modes and has the potential to affect the utility of the mode derived by traveler and change mode choice decision. A set of “pull” and “push” policy scenarios are formulated to help us understand how different factors affect mode choice in transport. We find that disincentivizing private cars has the highest potential for shifting from car use followed by incentives for sustainable modes and expansion of public transport infrastructure. The paper concludes that capturing rational behavioural features of consumers with fine level of heterogeneity in modelling will help to better understand the dynamics of the transportation system and consequently assist policy makers to better identify and target consumer groups with the highest shift potential. more...

The unsustainable growth in global transport activity is straining planet's resources and ecosystems. Hence, there is a need to promote technological developments, regulatory instruments and social changes to reduce the impact of mobility demand on energy use and environment. The current paper aims at assessing the impact and effectiveness of transport policy measures in reaching emission reduction targets for the case of the integrated energy and transport system of Denmark. Our analysis of policy scenarios is performed in collaboration with experts, stakeholders and citizens, and facilitated by a newly developed Scenario Interface tool linked to the energy system model TIMES-DK. Market signals, in the form of taxes on CO2 and fossil fuels, retain the highest impact in lowering the carbon emissions from the transport sector, while the promotion of Mobility-as-a-Service is the most cost-effective measure among those analysed. Finally, we discuss the implications of combining instruments into policy packages and emphasise the urgency of addressing technology and policy solutions for the maritime and aviation sectors. more...

Experiencing the highest growth in emissions since 1990 and relying mainly on oil, transport is considered the most complicated sector to decarbonize. Lately, the Nordic countries have shown remarkable success in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in the power and heat sector. However, when it comes to transportation, the greatest source of Nordic GHG emissions, stronger measures are needed. Relying on a rich and diversified portfolio of renewable sources and expertise, the Nordic countries could benefit from a common mitigation strategy by encompassing a larger variety of solutions and potential synergies. This article reviews studies addressing integrated energy and transport scenario analysis for the Nordic region as a whole. The studies targeted are those applying energy system models, given their extensive adoption in supporting scenario analysis. Most notable of these studies is the “Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016” to which a special focus is dedicated. The article reviews the methodological choices and the research content of the selected literature. Challenges/limitations are identified in light of recent transport research, and categorized as: “transport behavior”, “breakthrough technologies”, “domestic energy resources” and “geographical aggregation and system boundaries”. Lastly, a list of suggestions to tackle the identified gaps is provided based on the existing literature. more...

Industrial excess heat may often be utilised for district heating and thus replace existing expensive or CO2-emitting technologies. Previous works analysed the distribution of excess heat by temperature intervals and their geographical distribution relative to district heating areas. A more detailed analysis of the most suitable types of industries and the costs is required, allowing a targeted exploitation of this resource. This work extends the spatial and thermodynamic analysis, to account for the temporal match between industrial excess heat and district heating demands, as well as the costs for implementation and operation of the systems. This allows the determination of cost-effective district heating potentials, as well as the analysis of different industries and technological requirements. The results show that the temporal mismatch between excess heat and district heating demand and lack of demand, reduces the theoretical substitution potential by almost 30%. If heat storages are introduced, the total potential is reduced by only 10%. A majority of the excess heat can be utilised at socio-economic heating costs lower than the average Danish district heating price and the cost of solar district heating. Excess heat from oil refineries, building material and food production can be utilised at the lowest specific costs. more...

QC 20170531, REEEM

Excess heat is available from various sources and its utilisation could reduce the primary energy use. The accessibility of this heat is however dependent amongst others on the source and sink temperature, amount and potential users in its vicinity. In this work a new method is developed which analyses excess heat sources from the industrial sector and how they could be used for district heating. This method first allocates excess heat to single production units by introducing and validating a new approach. Spatial analysis of the heat sources and consumers are then performed to evaluate the potential for using them for district heating. In this way the theoretical potential of using the excess heat for covering the heating demand of buildings is determined. Through the use of industry specific temperature profiles the heat usable directly or via heat pumps is further found. A sensitivity analysis investigates the impact of future energy efficiency measures in the industry, buildings and the district heating grid on the national potential. The results show that for the case study of Denmark, 1.36 TWh of district heat could be provided annually with industrial excess heat from thermal processes which equals 5.1% of the current demand. More than half of this heat was found to be usable directly, without the need for a heat pump. more...

Denmark is striving towards 100% renewable energy system in 2050. Residential heat pumps are expected to be a part of that system.We propose two novel approaches to improve the representation of residential heat pumps: Coefficients of performance (COPs) are modelled as dependent on air and ground temperature while installation of ground-source heat pumps is constrained by available ground area. In this study, TIMES-DK model is utilised to test the effects of improved modelling of residential heat pumps on the Danish energy system until 2050.The analysis of the Danish energy system was done for politically agreed targets which include: at least 50% of electricity consumption from wind power starting from 2020, fossil fuel free heat and power sector from 2035 and 100% renewable energy system starting from 2050. Residential heat pumps supply around 25% of total residential heating demand after 2035. The improved modelling of residential heat pumps proved to have influence on the results. First, it would be optimal to invest in more ground-source heat pumps, but there is not enough available ground area. Second, the total system costs are higher when COPs are modelled as temperature-dependent compared to fixed COPs over a year. more...

Munksøgård is a housing community near the city of Roskilde, Denmark. In 2014, Munksøgård's residents have agreed to change the existing heat supply system. The choice of future heat supply was narrowed to heat pumps, new biomass boiler and connection to nearby district heating network. The present paper compares results from techno-economic energy system analysis, simple private-economic analysis and assessment of externalities related to the heat supply and discusses the differences in conclusions - is the economic optimal solution different from a system or private-economic point of view? The techno-economic energy system analysis is done using TIMES-DTU model, which optimizes over all sectors in Denmark and all periods until 2050. The result from this model gives the least expensive solution from the overall system point of view. A spreadsheet model has been developed to do the private-economic analysis and the evaluation of external effects related to the different solutions. more...

Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality aims to be 100% self-sufficient in renewable energy supply starting from 2020. It is expected that the building sector will contribute by reducing energy demand by 25-50%.Technical, economic, environmental and geographical aspects need to be considered when analysing such drastic change of municipality's energy system. For that purpose, GIS-based Ringkøbing-Skjern Energy Atlas has been developed. The present paper utilises Ringkøbing-Skjern Energy Atlas together with the Heating Model to calculate potentials and costs of heat saving measures.The results show that the reduction of heating demand by 25% and 35% can be achieved at the annuitized full cost lower than 1.7 and 2 DKK/kWh, respectively. The results also show that significant heat saving potential lies in farmhouses and detached houses as well as in buildings built before 1950. Over 75% of very cheap heat saving potential can be harvested by insulating floors, while majority of heat saving potential cheaper than 2 DKK/kWh can be utilised by insulating floors and installing mechanical ventilation systems. After heat savings and heat supply options are compared from a private-economic perspective, it is concluded that heat savings should be directed towards buildings supplied by oil boilers, natural gas boilers and ground-source heat pumps. more...

Ringkøbing-Skjern is Denmark's largest municipality, located in the west part of Central Denmark Region. Its medium-term goal is to achieve 100 % self-sufficiency in renewable energy supply by 2020. To achieve this ambitious goal, future courses of action have been outlined in the municipality's energy strategy "Energy2020" and divided into five groups: increasing production from wind, bioenergy and other renewable energy sources, reducing heat demand in buildings and converting transportation sector to renewable energy. The analysis of technical, economic and environmental impacts of such a variety of technologies on the municipality's energy system requires highly detailed decision support system. For that purpose, GIS-based energy atlas has been developed for Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality. The data about energy supply and demand, transmission and distribution infrastructure, energy resources, societal and other energy data have been geographically referenced and combined with the tools built in ArcGIS software. The data have been collected from various sources: freely accessible public databases, the municipality, district heating and electricity companies, Danish transmission system operator, etc. The focus in the energy atlas is put on the geographical level of details, such as locations of district heating pipes and wind turbines, but the objects have been described with technical parameters and historical values as well. The applicability of the energy atlas is elaborated in the present paper and it is concluded that it can be used for analysis of heat saving measures in the building stock, district heating expansion and site-selection analysis for new wind turbines or biogas plants. In addition to that, it has proven to be useful as a data container and pre-analysis tool for energy system models and as a visualization tool. The continuous updating of the atlas while maintaining the sufficient level of data confidentiality is considered crucial for its l more...

Munksøgård is a housing community near the city of Roskilde, Denmark. In 2014, Munksøgård's residents have agreed to change the existing heat supply system. The choice of future heat supply was narrowed to heat pumps, new biomass boiler and connection to nearby district heating network. The present paper compares results from techno-economic energy system analysis, simple private-economic analysis and assessment of externalities related to the heat supply and discusses the differences in conclusions - is the economic optimal solution different from a system or private-economic point of view? The techno-economic energy system analysis is done using TIMES-DTU model, which optimizes over all sectors in Denmark and all periods until 2050. The result from this model gives the least expensive solution from the overall system point of view. A spreadsheet model has been developed to do the private-economic analysis and the evaluation of external effects related to the different solutions. more...

Denmark is one of the Northern European countries that have set up ambitious longterm targets to reduce GHG emissions from the transport as well as from other sectors. In Denmark the target is to make the transport sector independent of fossilfuel consumption by 2050 at the latest. This paper compares a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal - either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen (H2) use in the transport sector. The STREAM model - an energy scenario simulating tool - provides insight into different potential energy mixes and calculates socio economic costs. It is used to model the different transport scenarios and their system integration with the electricity and heating sectors. The major findings of this paper are that an increased share of electric vehicles could significantly reduce the socio-economic cost of the energy system in 2050. Electricity demand for H2 generation via electrolysis is more flexible than EV charging and the production can therefore, to a larger degree be used to out-balance variable electricity surplus from a high share of wind and solar energy in the power system. H2 production may generate heat that can be used as district heating - replacing traditional heating plants, heat pumps and in some cases combined heat and power plants. Therefore the energy generation mix (electricity and heat) is more affected in the H2 scenario than in the EV scenario. Whether the H2 scenario is more costly to implement than the EV scenario mainly depends on the technological development - especially the improvement on the efficiency of the conversion from electricity to H2. It is found that a higher efficiency in the H2 production via electrolysis plays a more important role in decreasing the total cost of the energy system than a lower level of electrolyser capital cost. Therefore, the major driver of a successful H2 scenario is a high efficient and flexible H2 production in 20 more...

After a long period of transition, Danish energy system is half-way towards completely renewable in 2050. Drastic changes happened in the last forty years – the imported oil has been replaced by a mix of coal and natural gas, energy efficiency and conservation have been improved by extensive use of CHP-based district heating and heat saving measures. In the same period Denmark became well-known by integration and export of wind turbines. In line with the changes in the past, Denmark currently has very ambitious renewable energy targets, most ambitious being the 100 % renewable energy system in 2050. To achieve this, it is obvious that the present energy system needs to change, but the open question is how this should be done. In order to answer this question, the present paper uses TIMES-DTU model. TIMES-DTU is technology-rich, bottom-up, optimisation model covering all sectors of the Danish energy system, assuming full foresight and perfect competition. It simultaneously optimises investments and operation across all sectors and all time periods. Three different scenarios have been described in the present paper: (i) Base scenario without any policy constraints imposed on the model, (ii) WLP with the constraint that 50 % of electricity production should come from wind starting from 2020, and (iii) WLP-NFE scenario with the constraint that power and heat sector should be fossil fuel-free starting from 2035 and Denmark should be 100 % renewable starting from 2050. In all scenarios, Denmark was constrained to be a net exporter of electricity. The results imply that heat demand in future Danish energy system will be significantly reduced as a result of significant heat saving measures within the building stock, especially in rural and sub-urban areas. In urban areas, large district heating networks will supply between 55 and 73 % of heat supply in the years close to 2050. Electricity demand will be largely increased mainly due to transition to large scale heat pumps in more...

Suffix tree construction algorithms based on suffix links are popular because they are simple to implement, can operate online in linear time, and because the suffix links are often convenient for pattern matching. We present an approach using edge-oriented suffix links, which reduces the number of branch lookup operations (known to be a bottleneck in construction time) with some additional techniques to reduce construction cost. We discuss various effects of our approach and compare it to previous techniques. An experimental evaluation shows that we are able to reduce construction time to around half that of the original algorithm, and about two thirds that of previously known branch-reduced construction., Comment: Presented at SEA 2014, Copenhagen more...

In the past four decades following the global oil crisis in 1973, Denmark has implemented remarkable changes in its energy sector, mainly due to the energy conservation measures on the demand side and the energy efficiency improvements on the supply side. Nowadays, the capital intensive infrastructure investments, such as the expansion of district heating networks and the introduction of significant heat saving measures require highly detailed decision-support tool. A Danish heat atlas provides highly detailed database with extensive information about more than 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Energy system analysis tools incorporate environmental, economic, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems and are considered crucial for the quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as EU 2020 goals and Denmark’s goal of achieving fossil free society after 2050. The present paper shows how a Danish heat atlas can be used for providing inputs to energy system models, especially related to the analysis of heat saving measures within building stock and expansion of district heating networks. As a result, marginal cost curves are created, approximated and prepared for the use in optimization energy system model. Moreover, it is concluded that heat atlas can contribute as a tool for data storage and visualisation of results. more...

Denmark is one of the Nordic countries that have set up ambitious long-term targets to reduce GHG emissions from the transport as well as from other sectors. In Denmark the target is to make the transport sector independent of fossil-fuel consumption by 2050 at the latest. This paper compares a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal - either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen (H2) use in the transport sector. The STREAM model - an energy scenario simulating tool - provides insight into different potential energy mixes and calculates socio economic costs. It is used to model the different transport scenarios and their system integration with the electricity and heating sectors. The major findings of this paper are that an increased share of electric vehicles could significantly reduce the socio-economic cost of the system in 2050. Compared to the EV scenario, H2 generation from electrolysis is more flexible and the production can therefore to a larger degree be used to out-balance fluctuating electricity surplus from a high share of wind energy in the power system. H2 production may generate heat that can be used as district heating - replacing traditional heating plants, heat pumps and in some cases combined heat and power plants. Therefore the energy generation mix (electricity and heat) is more affected in the H2 scenario than in the EV scenario. Whether the H2 scenario is more costly to implement than the EV scenario mainly depends on the technological development - especially the efficiency of the electricity to H2 development. It is found that a higher efficiency in the H2 production is more important than a lower level of the capital cost. Therefore, the major driver of a successful H2 scenario is a high efficient and flexible H2 production in 2050. In other words, from a socio-economic view point this paper estimates that the technological path in innovation should have more...

Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed. more...

This chapter gives an overview of the current status of wind power globally and the growth in installed wind capacity over the last decade. It reviews global projections of wind power growth in scenarios from various energy system models, and draws conclusions about the necessary conditions to scale-up wind energy in the future. more...

The focus of this chapter is mostly on short-term integration issues and the corresponding need for ancillary services. Here we should remember that policy and regulation influence the need for balancing. Shorter gate-closure times in the power market, for instance, allow better forecasting and create the opportunity to re-dispatch generators before the need for balancing arises. Allowing new actors into the market, especially from the demand side, also helps providing the required services at the lowest possible cost. more...

The Bioenergy Department in SENER have requested assistance with planning for the deployment of bioenergy (Biomass, biogas and waste incineration) in Mexico and information on Danish experiences with developing policy initiatives promoting bioenergy. This introduction to the Danish experiences with waste incineration for energy production use is compiled as preparation for SENER’s potential visit to Denmark in 2014. This report was prepared 19 June, 2014 by COWI DTU System Analysis to Danish Energy Agency (DEA) as part of a frame contract agreement. more...

The Bioenergy Department in SENER have requested assistance with planning for the deployment of bioenergy (Biomass, biogas and waste incineration) in Mexico and information on Danish experiences with developing policy initiatives promoting bioenergy. This introduction to the Danish experiences with biomass use is compiled as preparation for SENER’s potential visit to Denmark in 2014. This report was prepared 19 June, 2014 by DTU System Analysis to Danish Energy Agency (DEA) as part of a frame contract agreement. more...

This report is primarily based on the work of the Danish biogas task force, which was established as a result of the Energy Agreement of 22 March 2012. The purpose of the task force is to examine and support concrete biogas projects in order to facilitate the projected biogas development up to 2020. The focus of the task force was on the practical integration of the new biogas production in energy system, including the utilization of gas, the necessary infrastructure and contractual relationships. The aim was to ensure effective and appropriate integration of biogas in the Danish energy supply, which was consistent with the policy objectives, both in regards to current challenges for specific biogas plants and the role of biogas flexible renewable energy form on longer term. The task force's final report was published in 2014. more...

In the past four decades following the global oil crisis in 1973, Denmark has implemented remarkable changes in its energy sector, mainly due to energy conservation measures on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements on the supply side. Nowadays the optimal expansion of district heating networks in relation with significant heat saving measures that are capital intensive infrastructure investments require highly detailed decision - support tools. The Heat Atlas for Denmark provides a highly detailed database and includes heat demand and possible heat savings for about 2.5 million buildings with associated costs included. Energy systems modelling tools that incorporate economic, environmental, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems are considered crucial for quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as (i) EU 2020 goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and (ii) Denmark’s 2050 goals of covering entire energy supply by renewable energy. Optimization and simulation energy system models are currently used in Denmark. The present paper tends to provide a comprehensive insight into the use of the Heat Atlas for Denmark in recent studies dealing with municipal strategic energy planning and main scientific papers addressing those issues. A literature review of current advancements and discoveries in linking the Heat Atlas and energy system models will be presented, while special attention will be given to treating competing investments between heat supply and savings using optimization models. Main scientific contributors, their methodologies and areas for future research will be identified. more...

Denmark has more than 10 years’ of experience with a wind share of approximately 20 per cent. During these 10 years, electricity markets have been subject to developments with a key focus on integrating wind power as well as trading electricity with neighbouring countries. This article introduces a methodology to analyse and understand the current market integration of wind power and concludes that the majority of Danish wind power in the period 2004e2008 was used to meet the domestic demand. Based on a physical analysis, at least 63 per cent of Danish wind power was used domestically in 2008. To analyse the remaining 37 per cent, we must apply a market model to identify cause-effect relationships. The Danish case does not illustrate any upper limit for wind power integration, as also illustrated by Danish political targets to integrate 50 per cent by 2020. In recent years, Danish wind power has been financed solely by the electricity consumers, while maintaining production prices below the EU average. The net influence from wind power has been as low as 1e3 per cent of the consumer price. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. more...