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levated CO2 and warming may alter terrestrial ecosystems by promoting invasive plants with strong community and ecosystem impacts. Invasive plant responses to elevated CO2 and warming are difficult to predict, however, because of the many mechanisms involved, including modification of phenology, physiology, and cycling of nitrogen and water. Understanding the relative and interactive importance of these processes requires multifactor experiments under realistic field conditions. Here, we test how free-air CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppmv) and infrared warming (+1.5 °C day/3 °C night) influence a functionally and phenologically distinct invasive plant in semi-arid mixed-grass prairie. Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), a fast-growing Eurasian winter annual grass, increases fire frequency and reduces biological diversity across millions of hectares in western North America. Across 2 years, we found that warming more than tripled B. tectorum biomass and seed production, due to a combination of increased recruitment and increased growth. These results were observed with and without competition from native species, under wet and dry conditions (corresponding with tenfold differences in B. tectorum biomass), and despite the fact that warming reduced soil water. In contrast, elevated CO2 had little effect on B. tectorum invasion or soil water, while reducing soil and plant nitrogen (N). We conclude that (1) warming may expand B. tectorum’s phenological niche, allowing it to more successfully colonize the extensive, invasion-resistant northern mixed-grass prairie, and (2) in ecosystems where elevated CO2 decreases N availability, CO2 may have limited effects on B. tectorum and other nitrophilic invasive species.

Predicted increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature may benefit some invasive plants, increasing the need for effective invasive plant management. Biological control can be an effective means of managing invasive plants, but the anticipated range in responses of plant–insect interactions to climate change make it difficult to predict how effective biological control will be in the future. Field experiments that manipulate climate within biological control systems could improve predictive power, but are challenging to implement and therefore rare to date. Here, we show that free air CO2 enrichment in the field increased the fitness of Centaurea diffusa Lam., a problematic invader in much of the western United States. However, CO2 enrichment also increased the impact of the biological control agent Larinus minutus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on C. diffusa fitness. C. diffusa plants flowered earlier and seed heads developed faster with both elevated CO2 and increased temperature. Natural dispersal of L. minutus into the experimental plots provided a unique opportunity to examine weevil preference for and effects on C. diffusa grown under the different climate change treatments. Elevated CO2 increased both the proportion of seed heads infested by L. minutus and, correspondingly, the amount of seed removed by weevils. Warming had no detectable effect on weevil utilization of plants. Higher weevil densities on elevated CO2 plants reduced, but did not eliminate, the positive effects of CO2 on C. diffusa fitness. Correlations between plant development time and weevil infestation suggest that climate change increased weevil infestation by hastening plant phenology. Phenological mismatches are anticipated with climate change in many plant–insect systems, but in the case of L. minutus and C. diffusa in mixed-grass prairie, a better phenological match may make the biological control agent more effective as CO2 levels rise.