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PURPOSE: To characterize the progression in retinopathy severity of different phenotypes of mild nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) in patients with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes and mild NPDR (ETDRS 20 or 35) were followed in a 5-year longitudinal study. Examinations, including color fundus photography (CFP) and optical coherence tomography (OCT and OCTA), were performed at baseline, 6 months and then annually. Phenotype classification was performed based on microaneurysm turnover (MAT, on CFP) and central retinal thickness (CRT, on OCT). Phenotype A is characterized by low MAT (< 6) and normal CRT; Phenotype B by low MAT (< 6) and increased CRT; and Phenotype C by higher MAT (≥ 6) with or without increased CRT. ETDRS grading of seven fields CFP was performed at the initial and last visits. RESULTS: Analysis of ETDRS grade step changes showed significant differences in diabetic retinopathy (DR) progression between the different phenotypes (p < 0.001). Of the 66 participants with phenotype A only 2 eyes (3%) presented 2-or-more-step worsening. None of the 50 participants characterized as phenotype B developed 2-step worsening, whereas 13 eyes (23.2%) characterized as phenotype C had 2-or-more-steps worsening. Phenotype C presents the higher risk for 2-or-more step worsening (OR: 15.94 95% CI: 3.45-73.71; p < 0.001) and higher sensitivity, correctly identifying 86.7% of cases at risk (AUC: 0.84 95% CI: 0.72-0.96; p < 0.001). Diabetic retinopathy severity progression was associated with HbA1c (p = 0.019), LDL levels (p = 0.043), and ocular factors as MAT (p = 0.010), MA formation rate (p = 0.014) and MA disappearance rate (p = 0.005). Capillary closure at 5-year follow-up, identified by lower vessel density (VD) on OCTA, was also associated with diabetic DR severity progression (p = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Different DR phenotypes in type 2 diabetes show different risks of retinopathy progression. Phenotype C is associated wi