Search

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Dependence between extreme storm surge and rainfall can have significant implications for flood risk in coastal and estuarine regions. To supplement limited observational records, we use reanalysis surge data from a hydrodynamic model as the basis for dependence mapping, providing information at a resolution of approximately 30 km along the Australian coastline. We evaluated this approach by comparing the dependence estimates from modeled surge to that calculated using historical surge records from 79 tide gauges around Australia. The results show reasonable agreement between the two sets of dependence values, with the exception of lower seasonal variation in the modeled dependence values compared to the observed data, especially at locations where there are multiple processes driving extreme storm surge. This is due to the combined impact of local bathymetry as well as the resolution of the hydrodynamic model and its meteorological inputs. Meteorological drivers were also investigated for different combinations of extreme rainfall and surge—namely rain‐only, surge‐only, and coincident extremes—finding that different synoptic patterns are responsible for each combination. The ability to supplement observational records with high‐resolution modeled surge data enables a much more precise quantification of dependence along the coastline, strengthening the physical basis for assessments of flood risk in coastal regions.

Current and potential future storm-related wind and hail hazard in Australia is reviewed. Confidence in the current incidence of wind hazard depends upon the type of storm producing the hazard. Current hail hazard is poorly quantified in most regions of Australia. Future projections of wind hazard indicate decreases in wind hazard in northern Australia, increases along the east coast and decreases in the south, although such projections are considerably uncertain and are more uncertain for small-scale storms than for larger storms. A number of research gaps are identified and recommendations made.

CASE HISTORY: Health monitoring of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) at Auckland Zoo between 2001 and 2009 showed that 58/93 tuatara had been affected by dermatitis of unknown origin. From 2011 onwards, cases of suspected fungal dermatitis underwent extensive diagnostic investigations.CLINCAL FINDINGS: Six cases of dermatomycosis were attributed to Paranannizziopsis australasiensis, five in tuatara and one in a coastal bearded dragon (Pogona barbata). Cases presented typically as raised, yellow to brown encrustations on the skin. Severe cases progressed to necrotising ulcerative dermatitis, and in the bearded dragon to fatal systemic mycosis. Following topical and systemic treatments, lesions resolved in all five tuatara.LABORATORY FINDINGS: Histopathological examination of skin biopsy samples revealed dermatitis with intralesional septate branching hyphae. Fungal culture yielded isolates morphologically resembling Chrysosporium species, and isolates were submitted for molecular confirmation and sequencing of DNA.DIAGNOSIS: All six cases were confirmed as dermatitis due to infection with P. australasiensis, on the basis of fungal culture and DNA sequencing of isolates.CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These are the first reported cases of dermatomycosis associated with P. australasiensis infection in tuatara, and the first cases in which systemic therapeutic agents have been used in the treatment of such disease. Tuatara at the Auckland Zoo are now routinely examined every 3 months and tissue samples from any lesions sent for histopathology and fungal culture. Further work to elucidate the epidemiology and significance of P. australasiensis infections in reptiles in New Zealand is important for both welfare and conservation purposes.

CASE HISTORY: Health monitoring of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) at Auckland Zoo between 2001 and 2009 showed that 58/93 tuatara had been affected by dermatitis of unknown origin. From 2011 onwards, cases of suspected fungal dermatitis underwent extensive diagnostic investigations.CLINCAL FINDINGS: Six cases of dermatomycosis were attributed to Paranannizziopsis australasiensis, five in tuatara and one in a coastal bearded dragon (Pogona barbata). Cases presented typically as raised, yellow to brown encrustations on the skin. Severe cases progressed to necrotising ulcerative dermatitis, and in the bearded dragon to fatal systemic mycosis. Following topical and systemic treatments, lesions resolved in all five tuatara.LABORATORY FINDINGS: Histopathological examination of skin biopsy samples revealed dermatitis with intralesional septate branching hyphae. Fungal culture yielded isolates morphologically resembling Chrysosporium species, and isolates were submitted for molecular confirmation and sequencing of DNA.DIAGNOSIS: All six cases were confirmed as dermatitis due to infection with P. australasiensis, on the basis of fungal culture and DNA sequencing of isolates.CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These are the first reported cases of dermatomycosis associated with P. australasiensis infection in tuatara, and the first cases in which systemic therapeutic agents have been used in the treatment of such disease. Tuatara at the Auckland Zoo are now routinely examined every 3 months and tissue samples from any lesions sent for histopathology and fungal culture. Further work to elucidate the epidemiology and significance of P. australasiensis infections in reptiles in New Zealand is important for both welfare and conservation purposes.

CASE HISTORY: Salmonellosis was suspected as the cause of death in eight wild animals on Tiritiri Matangi Island, in the Hauraki Gulf of New Zealand, between November and September 2011, including three hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), a masked lapwing (Vanellus miles novaehollandiae), and a saddleback (Philesturnus carunculatus). An outbreak investigation to identify the source and distribution of infection was undertaken over the summer of 2011–2012. CLINICAL AND LABORATORY FINDINGS: Surveillance of five species of forest bird (n=165) in December 2011 returned a single positive result for Salmonella spp. Environmental sampling of 35 key water sources and hihi supplementary feeding stations conducted in December 2011 and March 2012 returned isolates of S. enterica subspecies houtenae and S. enterica serovar Saintpaul from a stream, a dam and a supplementary feeding station. The same serotypes were identified in tissue samples collected from post mortem specimens of the affected birds, and their similarity was confirmed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. DIAGNOSIS: Mortality in wildlife associated with infection with S. enterica subspecies houtenae and S. enterica serovar Saintpaul. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This is the first detection of these Salmonella spp. from wild birds in New Zealand. Our study highlights how active surveillance in response to observed disease emergence (here mortalities) can provide important insight for risk assessment and management within populations of endangered species and inform risk assessment in translocation planning.

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) is a single-stranded DNA virus that is the etiological agent of beak and feather disease in both wild and captive parrots. Given that BFDV is globally recognized as a conservation threat for wild parrots, between 2011-2013, red-crowned parakeets (Cyanoramphus novaezelandiae, n = 229), which are endemic to New Zealand, were captured in mist nets on Tiritiri Matangi Island and Hauturu-o-Toi/Little Barrier Island (LBI), New Zealand, for disease surveillance. Blood and feathers from all birds were tested by PCR for BFDV, and full genomes were recovered and sequenced. A subset of blood samples (n = 96) were tested for antibodies to BFDV by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test. A further 238 feather samples were obtained from red-crowned parakeets from three sites in the Wellington region of the North Island, and these were screened for BFDV. The DNA-based prevalence of BFDV infection determined on Tiritiri Matangi Island was 1.09 % (CI 95 %, 0.1-3.9 %); on Hauturu-o-Toi/LBI, 4.4 % (95 % CI, 0.5 %-15.1 %); on Kapiti Island, 3.4 % (CI 95 %, 1.1-7.8 %); at the ZEALANDIA-Karori sanctuary, 1.6 % (95 % CI, 0-8.4 %); and on Matiu-Somes Island, 0 % (CI 95 %, 0-12.3 %). Seroprevalence for BFDV, indicating prior or current exposure, in the Tiritiri Matangi Island population, it was 2 % (CI 95 %, 0-10.1 %), and in the Hauturu-o-Toi/LBI population was 14 % (CI 95 %, 5.3-27.9 %). BFDV-positive birds showed no signs of clinical disease, with the exception of an individual bird obtained opportunistically from Shakespear Regional Park during the study period, which had classical signs of feather loss. Phylogenetic analysis of the 11 full genome sequences recovered from BFDV-positive red-crowned parakeets revealed evidence of ongoing viral flow between red-crowned parakeets and eastern rosellas (Platycercus eximius) in the Hauraki Gulf/Auckland region, with separate but closely related strains from the Wellington region of the North Island. Thi

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) is a single-stranded DNA virus that is the etiological agent of beak and feather disease in both wild and captive parrots. Given that BFDV is globally recognized as a conservation threat for wild parrots, between 2011-2013, red-crowned parakeets (Cyanoramphus novaezelandiae, n = 229), which are endemic to New Zealand, were captured in mist nets on Tiritiri Matangi Island and Hauturu-o-Toi/Little Barrier Island (LBI), New Zealand, for disease surveillance. Blood and feathers from all birds were tested by PCR for BFDV, and full genomes were recovered and sequenced. A subset of blood samples (n = 96) were tested for antibodies to BFDV by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test. A further 238 feather samples were obtained from red-crowned parakeets from three sites in the Wellington region of the North Island, and these were screened for BFDV. The DNA-based prevalence of BFDV infection determined on Tiritiri Matangi Island was 1.09 % (CI 95 %, 0.1-3.9 %); on Hauturu-o-Toi/LBI, 4.4 % (95 % CI, 0.5 %-15.1 %); on Kapiti Island, 3.4 % (CI 95 %, 1.1-7.8 %); at the ZEALANDIA-Karori sanctuary, 1.6 % (95 % CI, 0-8.4 %); and on Matiu-Somes Island, 0 % (CI 95 %, 0-12.3 %). Seroprevalence for BFDV, indicating prior or current exposure, in the Tiritiri Matangi Island population, it was 2 % (CI 95 %, 0-10.1 %), and in the Hauturu-o-Toi/LBI population was 14 % (CI 95 %, 5.3-27.9 %). BFDV-positive birds showed no signs of clinical disease, with the exception of an individual bird obtained opportunistically from Shakespear Regional Park during the study period, which had classical signs of feather loss. Phylogenetic analysis of the 11 full genome sequences recovered from BFDV-positive red-crowned parakeets revealed evidence of ongoing viral flow between red-crowned parakeets and eastern rosellas (Platycercus eximius) in the Hauraki Gulf/Auckland region, with separate but closely related strains from the Wellington region of the North Island. Thi

CASE HISTORY: Salmonellosis was suspected as the cause of death in eight wild animals on Tiritiri Matangi Island, in the Hauraki Gulf of New Zealand, between November and September 2011, including three hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), a masked lapwing (Vanellus miles novaehollandiae), and a saddleback (Philesturnus carunculatus). An outbreak investigation to identify the source and distribution of infection was undertaken over the summer of 2011–2012. CLINICAL AND LABORATORY FINDINGS: Surveillance of five species of forest bird (n=165) in December 2011 returned a single positive result for Salmonella spp. Environmental sampling of 35 key water sources and hihi supplementary feeding stations conducted in December 2011 and March 2012 returned isolates of S. enterica subspecies houtenae and S. enterica serovar Saintpaul from a stream, a dam and a supplementary feeding station. The same serotypes were identified in tissue samples collected from post mortem specimens of the affected birds, and their similarity was confirmed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. DIAGNOSIS: Mortality in wildlife associated with infection with S. enterica subspecies houtenae and S. enterica serovar Saintpaul. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This is the first detection of these Salmonella spp. from wild birds in New Zealand. Our study highlights how active surveillance in response to observed disease emergence (here mortalities) can provide important insight for risk assessment and management within populations of endangered species and inform risk assessment in translocation planning.

Climate and weather variables such as rainfall, temperature, and pressure are indicators for hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, and fires. The impact of these events can be due to a single variable being in an extreme state, but more often it is the result of a combination of variables not all of which are necessarily extreme. Here, the combination of variables or events that lead to an extreme impact is referred to as a compound event. Any given compound event will depend upon the nature and number of physical variables, the range of spatial and temporal scales, the strength of dependence between processes, and the perspective of the stakeholder who defines the impact. Modeling compound events is a large, complex, and interdisciplinary undertaking. To facilitate this task we propose the use of influence diagrams for defining, mapping, analyzing, modeling, and communicating the risk of the compound event. Ultimately, a greater appreciation of compound events will lead to further insight and a changed perspective on how impact risks are associated with climate-related hazards.

This study presents an analysis of the wind‐wave climate on the south‐east Australian continental margin and its potential changes under the effects of projected climate change. The wind‐wave climate is modelled for three 20 year time‐slices (1981–2000, 2031–2051, and 2081–2100) using a dynamical wave modelling approach in which the WaveWatch III spectral wave model, with a nested domain SWAN model, is the region of interest. Surface wind forcing is obtained from an ensemble of three global climate model runs (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0, and GFDLcm2.1) dynamically downscaled using CSIRO's Cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM), under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a high emission SRES A2 and low emission SRES B1 scenario). A third level of uncertainty associated with adjusting climate model derived winds for climate and variability bias is found to be the largest source of uncertainty among the limited range of sources considered in the twenty‐eight 20 year wave model simulations undertaken herein. The ensemble of wave model runs for the 2081–2100 time‐slice project a robust decrease in mean significant wave height along the south‐east Australian coast relative to present (1981–2000) conditions. The magnitude of projected change in mean annual significant wave height is less than 0.2 m, with larger values in the north of the region of interest, and is associated with a projected decrease in storm wave energy in the region. An anticlockwise rotation in mean wave direction of approximately 5° is also projected over the same period.

This study presents an analysis of the wind‐wave climate on the south‐east Australian continental margin and its potential changes under the effects of projected climate change. The wind‐wave climate is modelled for three 20 year time‐slices (1981–2000, 2031–2051, and 2081–2100) using a dynamical wave modelling approach in which the WaveWatch III spectral wave model, with a nested domain SWAN model, is the region of interest. Surface wind forcing is obtained from an ensemble of three global climate model runs (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0, and GFDLcm2.1) dynamically downscaled using CSIRO's Cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM), under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a high emission SRES A2 and low emission SRES B1 scenario). A third level of uncertainty associated with adjusting climate model derived winds for climate and variability bias is found to be the largest source of uncertainty among the limited range of sources considered in the twenty‐eight 20 year wave model simulations undertaken herein. The ensemble of wave model runs for the 2081–2100 time‐slice project a robust decrease in mean significant wave height along the south‐east Australian coast relative to present (1981–2000) conditions. The magnitude of projected change in mean annual significant wave height is less than 0.2 m, with larger values in the north of the region of interest, and is associated with a projected decrease in storm wave energy in the region. An anticlockwise rotation in mean wave direction of approximately 5° is also projected over the same period.

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) infections are often fatal to both captive and wild parrot populations. Its recent discovery in a wild population of native red-fronted parakeets has raised concerns for the conservation of native parrots, all of which are threatened or endangered. The question of a recent introduction versus a native genotype of the virus poses different conservation-management challenges, and thus, a clear understanding of the molecular phylogeny of BDFV is a crucial step towards integrated management planning. This study represents the first comprehensive attempt to screen New Zealand’s endangered and threatened psittacines systematically for BFDV. We sampled and screened kakapos (Strigops habroptilus), kakas (Nestor meridionalis), keas (N. notabilis), Chatham parakeets (Cyanoramphus forbesi), Malherbe’s parakeets (Cyanoramphus malherbi), yellow-crowned parakeets (C. auriceps) and red-fronted parakeets (Cyanoramphus novaezelandiae), as well as eastern rosellas (Platycercus eximius), an introduced species that is now common throughout the North Island, for BFDV. Out of all species and populations sampled (786 individuals), we found 16 BFDV-positive red-fronted parakeets from Little Barrier Island/Hauturu, seven eastern rosellas from the Auckland region, and eight yellow-crowned parakeets from the Eglinton Valley in the South Island. The full genomes of the viral isolates from the red-fronted parakeets share 95–97 % sequence identity to those from the invasive eastern rosellas and 92.7–93.4 % to those isolates from the South Island yellow-crowned parakeets. The yellow-crowned parakeet BFDV isolates share 92–94 % sequence identity with those from eastern rosellas. The low level of diversity among all BFDV isolates from red-fronted parakeets could suggest a more recent infection among these birds compared to the yellow-crowned parakeets, whereas the diversity in the eastern rosellas indicates a much more established infection. Pro-active screenin

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) infections are often fatal to both captive and wild parrot populations. Its recent discovery in a wild population of native red-fronted parakeets has raised concerns for the conservation of native parrots, all of which are threatened or endangered. The question of a recent introduction versus a native genotype of the virus poses different conservation-management challenges, and thus, a clear understanding of the molecular phylogeny of BDFV is a crucial step towards integrated management planning. This study represents the first comprehensive attempt to screen New Zealand’s endangered and threatened psittacines systematically for BFDV. We sampled and screened kakapos (Strigops habroptilus), kakas (Nestor meridionalis), keas (N. notabilis), Chatham parakeets (Cyanoramphus forbesi), Malherbe’s parakeets (Cyanoramphus malherbi), yellow-crowned parakeets (C. auriceps) and red-fronted parakeets (Cyanoramphus novaezelandiae), as well as eastern rosellas (Platycercus eximius), an introduced species that is now common throughout the North Island, for BFDV. Out of all species and populations sampled (786 individuals), we found 16 BFDV-positive red-fronted parakeets from Little Barrier Island/Hauturu, seven eastern rosellas from the Auckland region, and eight yellow-crowned parakeets from the Eglinton Valley in the South Island. The full genomes of the viral isolates from the red-fronted parakeets share 95–97 % sequence identity to those from the invasive eastern rosellas and 92.7–93.4 % to those isolates from the South Island yellow-crowned parakeets. The yellow-crowned parakeet BFDV isolates share 92–94 % sequence identity with those from eastern rosellas. The low level of diversity among all BFDV isolates from red-fronted parakeets could suggest a more recent infection among these birds compared to the yellow-crowned parakeets, whereas the diversity in the eastern rosellas indicates a much more established infection. Pro-active screenin

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific