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Predicting mobilization failure before it starts may enable patient-tailored strategies. Although consensus criteria for predicted PM (pPM) are available, their predictive performance has never been measured on real data. We retrospectively collected and analyzed 1318 mobilization procedures performed for MM and lymphoma patients in the plerixafor era. In our sample, 180/1318 (13.7%) were PM. The score resulting from published pPM criteria had sufficient performance for predicting PM, as measured by AUC (0.67, 95%CI: 0.63-0.72). We developed a new prediction model from multivariate analysis whose score (pPM-score) resulted in better AUC (0.80, 95%CI: 0.76-0.84, p < 0001). pPM-score included as risk factors: increasing age, diagnosis of NHL, positive bone marrow biopsy or cytopenias before mobilization, previous mobilization failure, priming strategy with G-CSF alone, or without upfront plerixafor. A simplified version of pPM-score was categorized using a cut-off to maximize positive likelihood ratio (15.7, 95%CI: 9.9-24.8); specificity was 98% (95%CI: 97-98.7%), sensitivity 31.7% (95%CI: 24.9-39%); positive predictive value in our sample was 71.3% (95%CI: 60-80.8%). Simplified pPM-score can "rule in" patients at very high risk for PM before starting mobilization, allowing changes in clinical management, such as choice of alternative priming strategies, to avoid highly likely mobilization failure.

Background Peripheral blood (PB) hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPC) collected by apheresis are the first-choice source for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The target HPC dose is usually considered to be 4 × 106 CD34+ cells/kg of the recipient, but higher doses are required in reduced-intensity conditioning and haploidentical transplants. Thus, prolonged stimulation and repeated collections or failure to reach HPC target may occur, increasing risks for donors and recipients. We carried out a retrospective multicenter study on healthy donors, to identify donor variables which may correlate with HPC mobilization. Study Design and Methods HPC allogeneic donations from sibling and unrelated donors performed in two centers from 1995 to 2012 were analyzed. We defined a mobilization cutoff of 50 × 10 6 CD34+ cells/L and tested somatic variables, blood counts, and granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) dose and molecular form. Results A total of 360 donors were analyzed (male, 201; female, 159; sibling, 348; unrelated, 12; median [range] age, 44.8 [13-80] years). Median peak CD34+ in PB was 54.4 × 106/L (range, 5 × 106-299 × 106). By multivariate analysis, we identified the following variables to correlate with good mobilization: 1) male sex (p < 0.0005); 2) younger age (p = 0.007); 3) higher baseline (premobilization) white blood cell (WBC) count (p < 0.0005); 4) higher G-CSF dosage (p < 0.0005); and 5) use of lenograstim rather than filgrastim (p < 0.002). Conclusion In healthy donors it is possible to predict successful HPC mobilization by donor sex, age, WBC count, and G-CSF form and dose. Furthermore, based on these data, it may be possible, at least in parental setting, to modulate G-CSF dosage on the basis of donor characteristics.