1. Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy: an individual participant data meta-analysis
- Author
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Dahal, P, Simpson, JA, Abdulla, S, Achan, J, Adam, I, Agarwal, A, Allan, R, Anvikar, AR, Ashley, EA, Bassat, Q, Borrmann, S, Bousema, T, Bukirwa, H, Carrara, V, Corsi, M, D'Alessandro, U, Davis, TME, Deloron, P, Desai, M, Dimbu, PR, Djalle, D, Djimde, A, Dorsey, G, Drakeley, CJ, Duparc, S, Edstein, MD, Espie, E, Abul, F, Falade, C, Fanello, C, Faucher, J-F, Faye, B, Fortes, FDJ, Gadalla, NB, Gaye, O, Gil, JP, Gilayeneh, J, Greenwood, B, Grivoyannis, A, Hien, TT, Hwang, J, Janssens, B, Juma, E, Kamugisha, E, Karema, C, Karunajeewa, HA, Kiechel, JR, Kironde, F, Kofoed, P-E, Kremsner, PG, Lee, SJ, Marsh, K, Martensson, A, Mayxay, M, Menan, H, Mens, P, Mutabingwa, TK, Ndiaye, J-L, Ngasala, BE, Noedl, H, Nosten, F, Offianan, AT, Ogutu, BR, Olliaro, PL, Ouedraogo, JB, Piola, P, Plowe, C, Plucinski, MM, Pratt, OJ, Premji, Z, Ramharter, M, Rogier, C, Vitare, P, Rombo, L, Rosenthal, PJ, Sibley, C, Sirima, S, Smithuis, F, Staedke, SG, Sutanto, I, Talisuna, AO, Tarning, J, Taylor, WRJ, Temu, E, Thriemer, K, Thuy-Nhien, N, Udhayakumar, V, Ursing, JD, van Herp, M, van Lenthe, M, van Vugt, M, William, Y, Winnips, C, Zaloumis, S, Zongo, I, White, NJ, Guerin, PJ, Stepniewska, K, Price, RN, Arinaitwe, E, Dahal, P, Simpson, JA, Abdulla, S, Achan, J, Adam, I, Agarwal, A, Allan, R, Anvikar, AR, Ashley, EA, Bassat, Q, Borrmann, S, Bousema, T, Bukirwa, H, Carrara, V, Corsi, M, D'Alessandro, U, Davis, TME, Deloron, P, Desai, M, Dimbu, PR, Djalle, D, Djimde, A, Dorsey, G, Drakeley, CJ, Duparc, S, Edstein, MD, Espie, E, Abul, F, Falade, C, Fanello, C, Faucher, J-F, Faye, B, Fortes, FDJ, Gadalla, NB, Gaye, O, Gil, JP, Gilayeneh, J, Greenwood, B, Grivoyannis, A, Hien, TT, Hwang, J, Janssens, B, Juma, E, Kamugisha, E, Karema, C, Karunajeewa, HA, Kiechel, JR, Kironde, F, Kofoed, P-E, Kremsner, PG, Lee, SJ, Marsh, K, Martensson, A, Mayxay, M, Menan, H, Mens, P, Mutabingwa, TK, Ndiaye, J-L, Ngasala, BE, Noedl, H, Nosten, F, Offianan, AT, Ogutu, BR, Olliaro, PL, Ouedraogo, JB, Piola, P, Plowe, C, Plucinski, MM, Pratt, OJ, Premji, Z, Ramharter, M, Rogier, C, Vitare, P, Rombo, L, Rosenthal, PJ, Sibley, C, Sirima, S, Smithuis, F, Staedke, SG, Sutanto, I, Talisuna, AO, Tarning, J, Taylor, WRJ, Temu, E, Thriemer, K, Thuy-Nhien, N, Udhayakumar, V, Ursing, JD, van Herp, M, van Lenthe, M, van Vugt, M, William, Y, Winnips, C, Zaloumis, S, Zongo, I, White, NJ, Guerin, PJ, Stepniewska, K, Price, RN, and Arinaitwe, E
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. METHODS: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with ≤ 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up
- Published
- 2022