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ContextMedicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021.MethodsAn agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated.ResultsThe baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention.FindingsSimulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

PURPOSE: To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) 's SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.METHODS: We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANN) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.RESULTS: The optimal ANN for SimCRC had four hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had one hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 hours for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.CONCLUSIONS: Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, like the CISNET CRC models.

The aftermath of the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the widening of disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes due to differential disruptions to CRC screening. This comparative microsimulation analysis uses two CISNET CRC models to simulate the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes. We evaluate three channels through which screening was disrupted: delays in screening, regimen switching, and screening discontinuation. The impact of these disruptions on long-term CRC outcomes was measured by the number of life-years lost due to CRC screening disruptions compared to a scenario without any disruptions. While short-term delays in screening of 3-18 months are predicted to result in minor life-years loss, discontinuing screening could result in much more significant reductions in the expected benefits of screening. These results demonstrate that unequal recovery of screening following the pandemic can widen disparities in CRC outcomes and emphasize the importance of ensuring equitable recovery to screening following the pandemic.

COVID-19 had an unprecedented impact on scientific collaboration. The pandemic and its broad response from the scientific community has forged new relationships among domain experts, mathematical modelers, and scientific computing specialists. Computationally, however, it also revealed critical gaps in the ability of researchers to exploit advanced computing systems. These challenging areas include gaining access to scalable computing systems, porting models and workflows to new systems, sharing data of varying sizes, and producing results that can be reproduced and validated by others. Informed by our team's work in supporting public health decision makers during the COVID-19 pandemic and by the identified capability gaps in applying high-performance computing (HPC) to the modeling of complex social systems, we present the goals, requirements, and initial implementation of OSPREY, an open science platform for robust epidemic analysis. The prototype implementation demonstrates an integrated, algorithm-driven HPC workflow architecture, coordinating tasks across federated HPC resources, with robust, secure and automated access to each of the resources. We demonstrate scalable and fault-tolerant task execution, an asynchronous API to support fast time-to-solution algorithms, an inclusive, multi-language approach, and efficient wide-area data management. The example OSPREY code is made available on a public repository.

The NSF-funded Robust Epidemic Surveillance and Modeling (RESUME) project successfully convened a workshop entitled "High-performance computing and large-scale data management in service of epidemiological modeling" at the University of Chicago on May 1-2, 2023. This was part of a series of workshops designed to foster sustainable and interdisciplinary co-design for predictive intelligence and pandemic prevention. The event brought together 31 experts in epidemiological modeling, high-performance computing (HPC), HPC workflows, and large-scale data management to develop a shared vision for capabilities needed for computational epidemiology to better support pandemic prevention. Through the workshop, participants identified key areas in which HPC capabilities could be used to improve epidemiological modeling, particularly in supporting public health decision-making, with an emphasis on HPC workflows, data integration, and HPC access. The workshop explored nascent HPC workflow and large-scale data management approaches currently in use for epidemiological modeling and sought to draw from approaches used in other domains to determine which practices could be best adapted for use in epidemiological modeling. This report documents the key findings and takeaways from the workshop.

It is generally desirable for high-performance computing (HPC) applications to be portable between HPC systems, for example to make use of more performant hardware, make effective use of allocations, and to co-locate compute jobs with large datasets. Unfortunately, moving scientific applications between HPC systems is challenging for various reasons, most notably that HPC systems have different HPC schedulers. We introduce PSI/J, a job management abstraction API intended to simplify the construction of software components and applications that are portable over various HPC scheduler implementations. We argue that such a system is both necessary and that no viable alternative currently exists. We analyze similar notable APIs and attempt to determine the factors that influenced their evolution and adoption by the HPC community. We base the design of PSI/J on that analysis. We describe how PSI/J has been integrated in three workflow systems and one application, and also show via experiments that PSI/J imposes minimal overhead.

ObjectivesWe examined whether molecular cluster membership was associated with public health identification of HIV transmission potential among named partners in Chicago.DesignHistorical cohort study.MethodsWe matched and analyzed HIV surveillance and partner services data from HIV diagnoses (2012-2016) prior to implementation of cluster detection and response interventions. We constructed molecular clusters using HIV-TRACE at a pairwise genetic distance threshold of 0.5% and identified clusters exhibiting recent and rapid growth according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition (three new cases diagnosed in past year). Factors associated with identification of partners with HIV transmission potential were examined using multivariable Poisson regression.ResultsThere were 5208 newly diagnosed index clients over this time period. Average age of index clients in clusters was 28; 47% were Black, 29% Latinx/Hispanic, 6% female and 89% MSM. Of the 537 named partners, 191 (35.6%) were linked to index cases in a cluster and of those 16% were either new diagnoses or viremic. There was no statistically significant difference in the probability of identifying partners with HIV transmission potential among index clients in a rapidly growing cluster versus those not in a cluster [adjusted relative risk 1.82, (0.81-4.06)].ConclusionPartner services that were initiated from index clients in a molecular cluster yielded similar new HIV case finding or identification of those with viremia as did interviews with index clients not in clusters. It remains unclear whether these findings are due to temporal disconnects between diagnoses and cluster identification, unobserved cluster members, or challenges with partner services implementation.

Background: Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. Methods: We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. Results: In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. Discussion: The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

ObjectivesGetting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies.MethodsA study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030).ResultsAll three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals.ConclusionsIncreasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

The landscape of workflow systems for scientific applications is notoriously convoluted with hundreds of seemingly equivalent workflow systems, many isolated research claims, and a steep learning curve. To address some of these challenges and lay the groundwork for transforming workflows research and development, the WorkflowsRI and ExaWorks projects partnered to bring the international workflows community together. This paper reports on discussions and findings from two virtual "Workflows Community Summits" (January and April, 2021). The overarching goals of these workshops were to develop a view of the state of the art, identify crucial research challenges in the workflows community, articulate a vision for potential community efforts, and discuss technical approaches for realizing this vision. To this end, participants identified six broad themes: FAIR computational workflows; AI workflows; exascale challenges; APIs, interoperability, reuse, and standards; training and education; and building a workflows community. We summarize discussions and recommendations for each of these themes., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2103.09181

Scientific workflows are a cornerstone of modern scientific computing, and they have underpinned some of the most significant discoveries of the last decade. Many of these workflows have high computational, storage, and/or communication demands, and thus must execute on a wide range of large-scale platforms, from large clouds to upcoming exascale HPC platforms. Workflows will play a crucial role in the data-oriented and post-Moore's computing landscape as they democratize the application of cutting-edge research techniques, computationally intensive methods, and use of new computing platforms. As workflows continue to be adopted by scientific projects and user communities, they are becoming more complex. Workflows are increasingly composed of tasks that perform computations such as short machine learning inference, multi-node simulations, long-running machine learning model training, amongst others, and thus increasingly rely on heterogeneous architectures that include CPUs but also GPUs and accelerators. The workflow management system (WMS) technology landscape is currently segmented and presents significant barriers to entry due to the hundreds of seemingly comparable, yet incompatible, systems that exist. Another fundamental problem is that there are conflicting theoretical bases and abstractions for a WMS. Systems that use the same underlying abstractions can likely be translated between, which is not the case for systems that use different abstractions. More information: https://workflowsri.org/summits/technical

Scientific workflows have been used almost universally across scientific domains, and have underpinned some of the most significant discoveries of the past several decades. Many of these workflows have high computational, storage, and/or communication demands, and thus must execute on a wide range of large-scale platforms, from large clouds to upcoming exascale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. These executions must be managed using some software infrastructure. Due to the popularity of workflows, workflow management systems (WMSs) have been developed to provide abstractions for creating and executing workflows conveniently, efficiently, and portably. While these efforts are all worthwhile, there are now hundreds of independent WMSs, many of which are moribund. As a result, the WMS landscape is segmented and presents significant barriers to entry due to the hundreds of seemingly comparable, yet incompatible, systems that exist. As a result, many teams, small and large, still elect to build their own custom workflow solution rather than adopt, or build upon, existing WMSs. This current state of the WMS landscape negatively impacts workflow users, developers, and researchers. The "Workflows Community Summit" was held online on January 13, 2021. The overarching goal of the summit was to develop a view of the state of the art and identify crucial research challenges in the workflow community. Prior to the summit, a survey sent to stakeholders in the workflow community (including both developers of WMSs and users of workflows) helped to identify key challenges in this community that were translated into 6 broad themes for the summit, each of them being the object of a focused discussion led by a volunteer member of the community. This report documents and organizes the wealth of information provided by the participants before, during, and after the summit.

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women are disproportionately affected by criminal justice involvement (CJI) and HIV. This study recruited 618 young Black MSM and transgender women in Chicago, IL, using respondent-driven sampling between 2013 and 2014. Random effects logistic regression evaluated predictors of incident CJI over 18 months of follow-up. Controlling for respondent age, gender and sexual identity, spirituality (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.96), and presence of a mother figure (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) were protective against CJI. Economic hardship (financial or residential instability vs. neither aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.10-4.51), two or more past episodes of CJI vs. none (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.40-5.66), and substance use (marijuana use vs. none aOR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.34; other drug use vs. none aOR 4.49, 95% CI 1.66-12.16) were associated with CJI during follow-up. Research to identify and leverage resilience factors that can buffer the effects of socioeconomic marginalization may increase the effectiveness of interventions to address the socio-structural factors that increase the risk for CJI among Black MSM and transgender women. Given the intersection of incarceration, HIV and other STIs, and socio-structural stressors, criminal justice settings are important venues for interventions to reduce health inequities in these populations.

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women are disproportionately affected by criminal justice involvement (CJI) and HIV. This study recruited 618 young Black MSM and transgender women in Chicago, IL, using respondent-driven sampling between 2013 and 2014. Random effects logistic regression evaluated predictors of incident CJI over 18 months of follow-up. Controlling for respondent age, gender and sexual identity, spirituality (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.96), and presence of a mother figure (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) were protective against CJI. Economic hardship (financial or residential instability vs. neither aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.10-4.51), two or more past episodes of CJI vs. none (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.40-5.66), and substance use (marijuana use vs. none aOR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.34; other drug use vs. none aOR 4.49, 95% CI 1.66-12.16) were associated with CJI during follow-up. Research to identify and leverage resilience factors that can buffer the effects of socioeconomic marginalization may increase the effectiveness of interventions to address the socio-structural factors that increase the risk for CJI among Black MSM and transgender women. Given the intersection of incarceration, HIV and other STIs, and socio-structural stressors, criminal justice settings are important venues for interventions to reduce health inequities in these populations.

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women are disproportionately affected by criminal justice involvement (CJI) and HIV. This study recruited 618 young Black MSM and transgender women in Chicago, IL, using respondent-driven sampling between 2013 and 2014. Random effects logistic regression evaluated predictors of incident CJI over 18 months of follow-up. Controlling for respondent age, gender and sexual identity, spirituality (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.96), and presence of a mother figure (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) were protective against CJI. Economic hardship (financial or residential instability vs. neither aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.10-4.51), two or more past episodes of CJI vs. none (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.40-5.66), and substance use (marijuana use vs. none aOR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.34; other drug use vs. none aOR 4.49, 95% CI 1.66-12.16) were associated with CJI during follow-up. Research to identify and leverage resilience factors that can buffer the effects of socioeconomic marginalization may increase the effectiveness of interventions to address the socio-structural factors that increase the risk for CJI among Black MSM and transgender women. Given the intersection of incarceration, HIV and other STIs, and socio-structural stressors, criminal justice settings are important venues for interventions to reduce health inequities in these populations.

Objective(s)'Getting to Zero' (GTZ) initiatives aim to eliminate new HIV infections over a projected time frame. Increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among populations with the highest HIV incidence, such as young Black MSM, is necessary to accomplish this aim. Agent-based network models (ABNMs) can help guide policymakers on strategies to increase PrEP uptake.DesignEffective PrEP implementation requires a model that incorporates the dynamics of interventions and dynamic feedbacks across multiple levels including virus, host, behavior, networks, and population. ABNMs are a powerful tool to incorporate these processes.MethodsAn ABNM, designed for and parameterized using data for young Black MSM in Illinois, was used to compare the impact of PrEP initiation and retention interventions on HIV incidence after 10 years, consistent with GTZ timelines. Initiation interventions selected individuals in serodiscordant partnerships, or in critical sexual network positions, and compared with a controlled setting where PrEP initiators were randomly selected. Retention interventions increased the mean duration of PrEP use. A combination intervention modeled concurrent increases in PrEP initiation and retention.ResultsSelecting HIV-negative individuals for PrEP initiation in serodiscordant partnerships resulted in the largest HIV incidence declines, relative to other interventions. For a given PrEP uptake level, distributing effort between increasing PrEP initiation and retention in combination was approximately as effective as increasing only one exclusively.ConclusionSimulation results indicate that expanded PrEP interventions alone may not accomplish GTZ goals within a decade, and integrated scale-up of PrEP, antiretroviral therapy, and other interventions might be necessary.

This is a position paper, submitted to the Future Online Analysis Platform Workshop (https://press3.mcs.anl.gov/futureplatform/), which argues that simple data analysis applications are common today, but future online supercomputing workloads will need to couple multiple advanced technologies (streams, caches, analysis, and simulations) to rapidly deliver scientific results. Each of these technologies are active research areas when integrated with high-performance computing. These components will interact in complex ways, therefore coupling them needs to be programmed. Programming in the large, on top of existing applications, enables us to build much more capable applications and to productively manage this complexity.

We investigate the evolution of three different types of discrete dynamical systems. In each case simple local rules are shown to yield interesting collective global behavior. (a) We introduce a mechanism for the evolution of growing small world networks. We demonstrate that purely local connection rules, when coupled with network growth, can result in short path lengths for the network as a whole. (b) We consider the general character of the spatial distributions of populations that grow through reproduction and subsequent local resettlement of new population members. Several simple one and two-dimensional point placement models are presented to illustrate possible generic behavior of these distributions. We show, both numerically and analytically, that all of the models lead to multifractal spatial distributions of population. (c) We present a discrete lattice model to investigate the segregation of three species granular mixtures in horizontally rotating cylinders. We demonstrate that the simple local rules of the model are able to reproduce many of the experimentally observed global phenomena.

We model the correlated X-ray - UV observations of NGC 7469, for which well sampled data in both these bands have been obtained recently in a multiwavelength monitoring campaign. To this end we derive the transfer function in wavelength \ls and time lag \t, for reprocessing hard (X-ray) photons from a point source to softer ones (UV-optical) by an infinite plane (representing a cool, thin accretion disk) located at a given distance below the X-ray source, under the assumption that the X-ray flux is absorbed and emitted locally by the disk as a black body of temperature appropriate to the incident flux. Using the observed X-ray light curve as input we have computed the expected continuum UV emission as a function of time at several wavelengths (\l \l 1315 \AA, \l \l 6962 \AA, \l \l 15000 \AA, \l \l 30000 \AA) assuming that the X-ray source is located one \sc radius above the disk plane, with the mass of the black hole $M$ and the latitude angle $\theta$ of the observer relative to the disk plane as free parameters. We have searched the parameter space of black hole masses and observer azimuthal angles but we were unable to reproduce UV light curves which would resemble, even remotely, those observed. We also explored whether particular combinations of the values of these parameters could lead to light curves whose statistical properties (i.e. the autocorrelation and cross correlation functions) would match those corresponding to the observed UV light curve at \l \l 1315 \AA. Even though we considered black hole masses as large as $10^9$ M$_{\odot}$ no such match was possible. Our results indicate that some of the fundamental assumptions of this model will have to be modified to obtain even approximate agreement between the observed and model X-ray - UV light curves., Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, ApJ in press

We model the correlated X-ray - UV observations of NGC 7469, for which well sampled data in both these bands have been obtained recently in a multiwavelength monitoring campaign. To this end we derive the transfer function in wavelength \ls and time lag \t, for reprocessing hard (X-ray) photons from a point source to softer ones (UV-optical) by an infinite plane (representing a cool, thin accretion disk) located at a given distance below the X-ray source, under the assumption that the X-ray flux is absorbed and emitted locally by the disk as a black body of temperature appropriate to the incident flux. Using the observed X-ray light curve as input we have computed the expected continuum UV emission as a function of time at several wavelengths (\l \l 1315 \AA, \l \l 6962 \AA, \l \l 15000 \AA, \l \l 30000 \AA) assuming that the X-ray source is located one \sc radius above the disk plane, with the mass of the black hole $M$ and the latitude angle $\theta$ of the observer relative to the disk plane as free parameters. We have searched the parameter space of black hole masses and observer azimuthal angles but we were unable to reproduce UV light curves which would resemble, even remotely, those observed. We also explored whether particular combinations of the values of these parameters could lead to light curves whose statistical properties (i.e. the autocorrelation and cross correlation functions) would match those corresponding to the observed UV light curve at \l \l 1315 \AA. Even though we considered black hole masses as large as $10^9$ M$_{\odot}$ no such match was possible. Our results indicate that some of the fundamental assumptions of this model will have to be modified to obtain even approximate agreement between the observed and model X-ray - UV light curves., Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, ApJ in press