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1. International shipping in a world below 2 °C

Author

Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, Leblanc, Florian, van den Berg, Maarten, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Dessens, Olivier, Naghash, Hesam, Draeger, Rebecca, Le Gallic, Thomas, Tagomori, Isabela S., Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Emmerling, Johannes, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Giannousakis, Anastasis, Drouet, Laurent, Portugal-Pereira, Joana, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Tsanakas, Nikolaos, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Szklo, Alexandre, Schaeffer, Roberto, Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, Leblanc, Florian, van den Berg, Maarten, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Dessens, Olivier, Naghash, Hesam, Draeger, Rebecca, Le Gallic, Thomas, Tagomori, Isabela S., Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Emmerling, Johannes, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Giannousakis, Anastasis, Drouet, Laurent, Portugal-Pereira, Joana, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Tsanakas, Nikolaos, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Szklo, Alexandre, and Schaeffer, Roberto

Abstract

The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

Published
2024

2. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Abstract

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe.

Published
2022

3. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

4. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

5. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

6. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

7. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

8. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Abstract

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe.

Published
2022

9. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Abstract

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

10. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Published
2021

11. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

12. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

13. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

14. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

15. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

16. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

17. Bio-ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Author

Oliveira, Camilla C.N., Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Bhardwaj, Rajat, Worrell, Ernst, Szklo, Alexandre, Oliveira, Camilla C.N., Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Bhardwaj, Rajat, Worrell, Ernst, and Szklo, Alexandre

Abstract

The urgency with which the world economy needs to be decarbonized could lead to the emergence of regions with the capacity to produce renewable feedstock such as biomass. The competitiveness of these regions could result from their ability to produce high value-added chemicals at the lowest cost. The biomass embodied in a chemical product could reduce carbon emissions, leading to net CO2 removal. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that bio-ethylene could make the Brazilian chemical industry more competitive. This would be achieved by applying the revenues from carbon credits associated with using ethanol and sugarcane bagasse as feedstocks for bio-ethylene production. Three production routes were compared according to their estimated cost of production in Brazil under a simplified life-cycle analysis: sugar-cane-derived ethanol to ethylene (with and without CO2 capture and storage – BECCS); bio-methanol to olefin; and conventional steam cracking of naphtha. When associated with the production of long-lasting materials, the ethanol-to-ethylene with BECCS route achieved the lower CO2 break-even price (US$75/t CO2), followed by ethanol to ethylene without BECCS (US$82/t CO2) and bio-methanol to ethylene (US$106/t CO2). Our findings highlight the advantage for the Brazilian chemical industry of implementing a national or, even better, a global carbon-pricing instrument.

Published
2020

21. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Abstract

This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.

Published
2018

22. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Published
2018

23. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Published
2018

24. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Published
2018

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