Search

A neural network has an activation bottleneck if one of its hidden layers has a bounded image. We show that networks with an activation bottleneck cannot forecast unbounded sequences such as straight lines, random walks, or any sequence with a trend: The difference between prediction and ground truth becomes arbitrary large, regardless of the training procedure. Widely-used neural network architectures such as LSTM and GRU suffer from this limitation. In our analysis, we characterize activation bottlenecks and explain why they prevent sigmoidal networks from learning unbounded sequences. We experimentally validate our findings and discuss modifications to network architectures which mitigate the effects of activation bottlenecks.

Rate-distortion theory-based outlier detection builds upon the rationale that a good data compression will encode outliers with unique symbols. Based on this rationale, we propose Cluster Purging, which is an extension of clustering-based outlier detection. This extension allows one to assess the representivity of clusterings, and to find data that are best represented by individual unique clusters. We propose two efficient algorithms for performing Cluster Purging, one being parameter-free, while the other algorithm has a parameter that controls representivity estimations, allowing it to be tuned in supervised setups. In an experimental evaluation, we show that Cluster Purging improves upon outliers detected from raw clusterings, and that Cluster Purging competes strongly against state-of-the-art alternatives.

Distance-based classification is among the most competitive classification methods for time series data. The most critical component of distance-based classification is the selected distance function. Past research has proposed various different distance metrics or measures dedicated to particular aspects of real-world time series data, yet there is an important aspect that has not been considered so far: Robustness against arbitrary data contamination. In this work, we propose a novel distance metric that is robust against arbitrarily "bad" contamination and has a worst-case computational complexity of $\mathcal{O}(n\log n)$. We formally argue why our proposed metric is robust, and demonstrate in an empirical evaluation that the metric yields competitive classification accuracy when applied in k-Nearest Neighbor time series classification., Comment: MileTS Workshop at KDD'19

The in-depth analysis of time series has gained a lot of research interest in recent years, with the identification of periodic patterns being one important aspect. Many of the methods for identifying periodic patterns require time series' season length as input parameter. There exist only a few algorithms for automatic season length approximation. Many of these rely on simplifications such as data discretization and user defined parameters. This paper presents an algorithm for season length detection that is designed to be sufficiently reliable to be used in practical applications and does not require any input other than the time series to be analyzed. The algorithm estimates a time series' season length by interpolating, filtering and detrending the data. This is followed by analyzing the distances between zeros in the directly corresponding autocorrelation function. Our algorithm was tested against a comparable algorithm and outperformed it by passing 122 out of 165 tests, while the existing algorithm passed 83 tests. The robustness of our method can be jointly attributed to both the algorithmic approach and also to design decisions taken at the implementational level., Comment: MileTS 2017