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1. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author

Schumacher, AE, Kyu, HH, Antony, CM, Aravkin, AY, Azhar, GS, Bisignano, C, Burkart, K, Cercy, KM, Chung, E, Coberly, K, Comfort, H, Cousin, E, Culbreth, GT, Cunningham, M, Weaver, ND, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Deitesfeld, L, Dirac, MA, Estep, K, Feigin, VL, Flaxman, AD, Flor, LS, Force, LM, Fuller, JE, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Ikuta, KS, Jones, DP, Kassebaum, NJ, Kassel, MB, Keller, C, Kinzel, KE, Krohn, KJ, Lozano, R, May, EA, McKowen, ALW, McLaughlin, SA, Mehlman, ML, Mestrovic, T, Mokdad, AH, Mosser, JF, Mougin, V, Naghavi, M, Nesbit, OD, Novotney, A, Ozten, Y, Pease, SA, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Robinson-Oden, HE, Shaw, DH, Slepak, ELN, Sorensen, RJD, Verghese, NA, Vollset, SE, Vongpradith, A, Vos, T, Wang, D, Watson, S, Weaver, MR, Wells, KM, Wilson, S, Wool, EE, Zheng, P, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Boyko, EJ, Chahine, Y, Kalani, R, Krishnamoorthy, V, Khalil, IA, Minja, NW, Morrison, SD, Nafukho, FM, Olivas-Martinez, A, Orellana, ER, Tram, KH, Aali, A, Rahnavard, N, Ahmadzade, AM, Mohammad-Pour, S, Morovatdar, N, Pourali, G, Zafari, N, Abbafati, C, Cattaruzza, MS, Abbas, J, Phillips, MR, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Emamverdi, M, Friedman, J, Abbasi, MA, Daneshvar, S, Dashti, M, Ghasemzadeh, A, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, M, Doshmangir, L, Ghafourifard, M, Lotfi, M, Hosseini, MS, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Sharma, Saurab ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9817-5372, Xu, Luna ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4787-6547, Addo, Isaac, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Okeke, Sylvester ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-1813, Aboagye, Richard ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-2909, Huda, Md Nazmul ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7048-1266, Cullen, Patricia ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-0936, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, Si, Yafei ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9334-8230, Dai-Keller, Zhaoli ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-5692, Schumacher, AE, Kyu, HH, Antony, CM, Aravkin, AY, Azhar, GS, Bisignano, C, Burkart, K, Cercy, KM, Chung, E, Coberly, K, Comfort, H, Cousin, E, Culbreth, GT, Cunningham, M, Weaver, ND, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Deitesfeld, L, Dirac, MA, Estep, K, Feigin, VL, Flaxman, AD, Flor, LS, Force, LM, Fuller, JE, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Ikuta, KS, Jones, DP, Kassebaum, NJ, Kassel, MB, Keller, C, Kinzel, KE, Krohn, KJ, Lozano, R, May, EA, McKowen, ALW, McLaughlin, SA, Mehlman, ML, Mestrovic, T, Mokdad, AH, Mosser, JF, Mougin, V, Naghavi, M, Nesbit, OD, Novotney, A, Ozten, Y, Pease, SA, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Robinson-Oden, HE, Shaw, DH, Slepak, ELN, Sorensen, RJD, Verghese, NA, Vollset, SE, Vongpradith, A, Vos, T, Wang, D, Watson, S, Weaver, MR, Wells, KM, Wilson, S, Wool, EE, Zheng, P, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Boyko, EJ, Chahine, Y, Kalani, R, Krishnamoorthy, V, Khalil, IA, Minja, NW, Morrison, SD, Nafukho, FM, Olivas-Martinez, A, Orellana, ER, Tram, KH, Aali, A, Rahnavard, N, Ahmadzade, AM, Mohammad-Pour, S, Morovatdar, N, Pourali, G, Zafari, N, Abbafati, C, Cattaruzza, MS, Abbas, J, Phillips, MR, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Emamverdi, M, Friedman, J, Abbasi, MA, Daneshvar, S, Dashti, M, Ghasemzadeh, A, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, M, Doshmangir, L, Ghafourifard, M, Lotfi, M, Hosseini, MS, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Sharma, Saurab ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9817-5372, Xu, Luna ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4787-6547, Addo, Isaac, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Okeke, Sylvester ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-1813, Aboagye, Richard ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-2909, Huda, Md Nazmul ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7048-1266, Cullen, Patricia ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-0936, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, Si, Yafei ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9334-8230, and Dai-Keller, Zhaoli ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-5692

Abstract

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, ant

Published
2024

2. Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

Author

Haeuser, E, Serfes, AL, Cork, MA, Yang, M, Abbastabar, H, Abhilash, ES, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyinka, DA, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, RO, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alene, KA, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asemahagn, MA, Jafarabadi, MA, Awedew, AF, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babalola, TK, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barnighausen, TW, Bell, AW, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bozicevic, I, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Cowden, RG, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Darteh, EKM, Darwesh, AM, das Neves, J, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, El Tantawi, M, El-Jaafary, S, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Eyawo, O, Ezeonwumelu, IJ, Ezzikouri, S, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, MIM, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, RA, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Islam, RM, Iwu, CCD, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, Li, S, Liu, X, Maleki, A, Malik, P, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moradi, M, Moraga, P, Mubarik, S, Mulu, GBB, Mwanri, L, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Olagunju, AT, Olakunde, BO, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Orisakwe, OE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Kan, FP, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Postma, MJ, Preotescu, L, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, LD, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riaz, MA, Ribeiro, AI, Ross, JM, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahiledengle, B, Sahu, M, Salem, MR, Kafil, HS, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Seidu, A-A, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Shrestha, R, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soltani, S, Sufiyan, MB, Tabuchi, T, Tadesse, EG, Taveira, N, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Villafane, JH, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Giang, TV, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilson, K, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Haeuser, E, Serfes, AL, Cork, MA, Yang, M, Abbastabar, H, Abhilash, ES, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyinka, DA, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, RO, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alene, KA, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asemahagn, MA, Jafarabadi, MA, Awedew, AF, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babalola, TK, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Barnighausen, TW, Bell, AW, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bozicevic, I, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Cowden, RG, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Darteh, EKM, Darwesh, AM, das Neves, J, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, El Tantawi, M, El-Jaafary, S, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Eyawo, O, Ezeonwumelu, IJ, Ezzikouri, S, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, MIM, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, RA, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Islam, RM, Iwu, CCD, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, Li, S, Liu, X, Maleki, A, Malik, P, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moradi, M, Moraga, P, Mubarik, S, Mulu, GBB, Mwanri, L, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Olagunju, AT, Olakunde, BO, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Orisakwe, OE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Kan, FP, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Postma, MJ, Preotescu, L, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, LD, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riaz, MA, Ribeiro, AI, Ross, JM, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahiledengle, B, Sahu, M, Salem, MR, Kafil, HS, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Seidu, A-A, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Shrestha, R, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soltani, S, Sufiyan, MB, Tabuchi, T, Tadesse, EG, Taveira, N, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Villafane, JH, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Giang, TV, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilson, K, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, and Dwyer-Lindgren, L

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a

Published
2022

3. Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

Author

Haeuser, E, Serfes, AL, Cork, MA, Yang, M, Abbastabar, H, Abhilash, ES, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyinka, DA, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, RO, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alene, KA, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asemahagn, MA, Jafarabadi, MA, Awedew, AF, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babalola, TK, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bärnighausen, TW, Bell, AW, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bozicevic, I, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Cowden, RG, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Darteh, EKM, Darwesh, AM, das Neves, J, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, El Tantawi, M, El-Jaafary, SI, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Eyawo, O, Ezeonwumelu, IJ, Ezzikouri, S, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, MIM, Gugnani, HC, Guimarães, RA, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Islam, RM, Iwu, CCD, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, Li, S, Liu, X, Maleki, A, Malik, P, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moradi, M, Moraga, P, Mubarik, S, Mulu, GBB, Mwanri, L, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Nuñez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Olagunju, AT, Olakunde, BO, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Orisakwe, OE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Kan, FP, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Postma, MJ, Preotescu, L, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, LD, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riaz, MA, Ribeiro, AI, Ross, JM, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahiledengle, B, Sahu, M, Salem, MR, Kafil, HS, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Seidu, A-A, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Shrestha, R, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soltani, S, Sufiyan, MB, Tabuchi, T, Tadesse, EG, Taveira, N, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Villafañe, JH, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilson, K, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, SI, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Local Burden of Disease sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators, Haeuser, E, Serfes, AL, Cork, MA, Yang, M, Abbastabar, H, Abhilash, ES, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyinka, DA, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, RO, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alene, KA, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asemahagn, MA, Jafarabadi, MA, Awedew, AF, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babalola, TK, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bärnighausen, TW, Bell, AW, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bozicevic, I, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Cowden, RG, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Darteh, EKM, Darwesh, AM, das Neves, J, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, El Tantawi, M, El-Jaafary, SI, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Eyawo, O, Ezeonwumelu, IJ, Ezzikouri, S, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, MIM, Gugnani, HC, Guimarães, RA, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Islam, RM, Iwu, CCD, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, Li, S, Liu, X, Maleki, A, Malik, P, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moradi, M, Moraga, P, Mubarik, S, Mulu, GBB, Mwanri, L, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Nuñez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Olagunju, AT, Olakunde, BO, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Orisakwe, OE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Kan, FP, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Postma, MJ, Preotescu, L, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, LD, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riaz, MA, Ribeiro, AI, Ross, JM, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahiledengle, B, Sahu, M, Salem, MR, Kafil, HS, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Seidu, A-A, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Shrestha, R, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soltani, S, Sufiyan, MB, Tabuchi, T, Tadesse, EG, Taveira, N, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Villafañe, JH, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilson, K, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, SI, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, and Local Burden of Disease sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a

Published
2022

4. Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Author

Cork, MA, Henry, NJ, Watson, S, Croneberger, AJ, Baumann, M, Letourneau, ID, Yang, M, Serfes, AL, Abbas, J, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Achappa, B, Adabi, M, Adal, TG, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Anvari, D, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asaad, M, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Darshan, BB, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bante, SA, Barboza, MA, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bejarano Ramirez, DF, Bensenor, IM, Beyene, FY, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birlik, SM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Boloor, A, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daoud, F, Davila Cervantes, CA, Weaver, ND, De la Hoz, FP, Demeke, FM, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, Elayedath, R, El-Jaafary, SI, Faraon, EJA, Faro, A, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Golechha, M, Gori, U, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Guimaraes, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haeuser, E, Haider, MR, Haile, TG, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hanif, A, Hargono, A, Hariyani, N, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hwang, BF, Ibeneme, CU, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Ilic, IM, Iqbal, U, Jahagirdar, D, Jain, V, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MNN, Khatab, K, Kianipour, N, Kim, YJ, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kuchenbecker, RS, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Li, B, Li, S, Liu, X, Amin, HIM, Machado, DB, Madi, D, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Malta, DC, Mansournia, MA, Manzar, MD, Marrugo Arnedo, CA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Mayala, BK, Medina-Solis, CE, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohammad, Y, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moni, MA, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Khaneghah, AM, Mustafa, G, Mwanri, L, Nagaraja, R, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Negash, H, Negoi, I, Nepal, S, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nikbakhsh, R, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Otstavnov, N, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Perumal, SRP, Pardo-Montano, AM, Patel, UK, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Pereira, A, Perkins, S, Pescarini, JM, Pokhrel, KN, Postma, MJ, Pottoo, FH, Prada, SI, Preotescu, L, Pribadi, DRA, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Roever, L, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Sagar, R, Sajadi, SM, Salem, MR, Samy, AM, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sathian, B, Schaeffer, LE, Schneider, IJC, Seidu, A-A, Sha, F, Shaikh, MA, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shin, JI, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sligar, A, Soheili, A, Steuben, KM, Sufiyan, MB, Tadesse, EG, Tesema, AKT, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Thompson, RL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Welay, FT, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, ND, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Cork, MA, Henry, NJ, Watson, S, Croneberger, AJ, Baumann, M, Letourneau, ID, Yang, M, Serfes, AL, Abbas, J, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Achappa, B, Adabi, M, Adal, TG, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Anvari, D, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asaad, M, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Darshan, BB, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bante, SA, Barboza, MA, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bejarano Ramirez, DF, Bensenor, IM, Beyene, FY, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birlik, SM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Boloor, A, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daoud, F, Davila Cervantes, CA, Weaver, ND, De la Hoz, FP, Demeke, FM, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, Elayedath, R, El-Jaafary, SI, Faraon, EJA, Faro, A, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Golechha, M, Gori, U, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Guimaraes, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haeuser, E, Haider, MR, Haile, TG, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hanif, A, Hargono, A, Hariyani, N, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hwang, BF, Ibeneme, CU, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Ilic, IM, Iqbal, U, Jahagirdar, D, Jain, V, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MNN, Khatab, K, Kianipour, N, Kim, YJ, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kuchenbecker, RS, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Li, B, Li, S, Liu, X, Amin, HIM, Machado, DB, Madi, D, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Malta, DC, Mansournia, MA, Manzar, MD, Marrugo Arnedo, CA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Mayala, BK, Medina-Solis, CE, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohammad, Y, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moni, MA, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Khaneghah, AM, Mustafa, G, Mwanri, L, Nagaraja, R, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Negash, H, Negoi, I, Nepal, S, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nikbakhsh, R, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Otstavnov, N, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Perumal, SRP, Pardo-Montano, AM, Patel, UK, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Pereira, A, Perkins, S, Pescarini, JM, Pokhrel, KN, Postma, MJ, Pottoo, FH, Prada, SI, Preotescu, L, Pribadi, DRA, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Roever, L, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Sagar, R, Sajadi, SM, Salem, MR, Samy, AM, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sathian, B, Schaeffer, LE, Schneider, IJC, Seidu, A-A, Sha, F, Shaikh, MA, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shin, JI, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sligar, A, Soheili, A, Steuben, KM, Sufiyan, MB, Tadesse, EG, Tesema, AKT, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Thompson, RL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Welay, FT, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, ND, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI, and Dwyer-Lindgren, L

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. RESULTS: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and divergi

Published
2021

5. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Author

Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, Hay, SI, Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, and Hay, SI

Abstract

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e

Published
2020

6. Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Author

Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, and Hay, SI

Abstract

Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1-3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4-6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9-11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12-14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.

Published
2020

7. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

Author

Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, and Golding, N

Abstract

This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.

Published
2019

8. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Author

Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, Hay, S, Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, and Hay, S

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

Published
2019

9. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

Author

Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, and Golding, N

Abstract

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

Published
2019

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