1. SIR epidemics and vaccination on random graphs with clustering
- Author
-
Carolina Fransson and Pieter Trapman
- Subjects
Poisson distribution ,01 natural sciences ,Quantitative Biology::Other ,Communicable Diseases ,Models, Biological ,Article ,Clustering ,010305 fluids & plasmas ,Disease Outbreaks ,03 medical and health sciences ,symbols.namesake ,0103 physical sciences ,FOS: Mathematics ,Computer Graphics ,Quantitative Biology::Populations and Evolution ,Cluster Analysis ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,Configuration model ,Cluster analysis ,030304 developmental biology ,Mathematics ,Branching process ,Discrete mathematics ,Random graph ,0303 health sciences ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,Vaccination ,Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted ,Computer Science::Social and Information Networks ,Models, Theoretical ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Outcome (probability) ,Branching processes ,Modeling and Simulation ,symbols ,SIR epidemics ,Graph (abstract data type) ,Disease Susceptibility ,Epidemic model ,Basic reproduction number ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
In this paper we consider Susceptible \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\rightarrow $$\end{document}→ Infectious \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\rightarrow $$\end{document}→ Recovered (SIR) epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified number of triangles. SIR epidemics on this type of graph have earlier been investigated under the assumption of homogeneous infectivity and also under the assumption of Poisson transmission and recovery rates. We extend known results from literature by relaxing the assumption of homogeneous infectivity both in individual infectivity and between different kinds of neighbours. An important special case of the epidemic model analysed in this paper is epidemics in continuous time with arbitrary infectious period distribution. We use branching process approximations of the spread of the disease to provide expressions for the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document}R0, the probability of a major outbreak and the expected final size. In addition, the impact of random vaccination with a perfect vaccine on the final outcome of the epidemic is investigated. We find that, for this particular model, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document}R0 equals the perfect vaccine-associated reproduction number. Generalizations to groups larger than three are discussed briefly.
- Published
- 2019