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1. Les émissions de N2O peuvent-elles compenser les avantages du stockage du carbone organique dans le sol ?

Author

David S. Powlson, Frédéric Rees, Victoria Naipal, Jérôme Balesdent, Rémi Cardinael, Julien Fouché, Emanuele Lugato, Elisa Bruni, Stefan Frank, Philippe Ciais, Dominique Arrouays, Catherine Hénault, Benoit Gabrielle, Hanqin Tian, Thomas Nesme, Sylvain Pellerin, Hugo Valin, Bertrand Guenet, Jean-Pierre Caliman, Michael Obersteiner, Claire Chenu, Feng Zhou, Yang Su, Jean-François Soussana, Dominique Desbois, Songchao Chen, Daniel P. Rasse, Martial Bernoux, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), InfoSol (InfoSol), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Smart Research Institute [Indonésie] (SMARTRI), SMART agribusiness and food [Jakarta] (SMART), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), University of Zimbawe [Harare] (UZ), University of Zimbawe, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Economie Publique (ECO-PUB), Laboratoire d'étude des Interactions Sol - Agrosystème - Hydrosystème (UMR LISAH), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Agroécologie [Dijon], Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Rothamsted Research, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Auburn University (AU), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], This paper stemmed from a workshop 'Emerging challenges in large scale soil carbon sequestration' held in Paris on 8-10 October 2018. The workshop was financially supported by the French government under the ANR 'Investissements d'avenir' program with the reference CLAND ANR-16-CONV-0003. F.Z. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41671464), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Norsk institutt for bioøkonomi=Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41671464), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Atténuation de l'effet de serre, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Travail du sol, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, greenhouse gases emissions, Agroforesterie, Carbone dans le sol, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, agroforestry, Interactions biologiques, Environmental protection, Biochar, organic amendment, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, greenhouse gas emissions, land based mitigation, erosion, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Tillage, Gaz a effet de serre, séquestration du carbone, Cycle de l'azote, réduction des émissions, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, tillage, Culture de couverture, P33 - Chimie et physique du sol, Labour, Land management, Climate change, érosion, [SDV.SA.SDS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Soil study, 010603 evolutionary biology, 12. Responsible consumption, Matière organique du sol, Fertilité du sol, Environmental Chemistry, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, biochar, Occupation des sols, émissions de gaz à effet de serre, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, cover crops agroforestry, Oxyde nitreux, Global warming, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, soil organic carbon, land-based mitigation, Amendement organique, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Soil water, Environmental science, cover crops, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Cycle du carbone
Abstract

This paper stemmed from a workshop 'Emerging challenges in large scale soil carbon sequestration' held in Paris on 8-10 October 2018; International audience; To respect the Paris agreement targeting a limitation of global warming below 2°C by 2100, and possibly below 1.5°C, drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are mandatory but not sufficient. Large‐scale deployment of other climate mitigation strategies are also necessary. Among these, increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is an important lever because carbon in soils can be stored for long periods and land management options to achieve this already exist and have been widely tested. However, agricultural soils are also an important source of nitrous oxide (N$_2$O), a powerful greenhouse gas, and increasing SOC may influence N$_2$O emissions, likely causing an increase in many cases, thus tending to offset the climate change benefit from increased SOC storage. Here, we review the main agricultural management options for increasing SOC stocks. We evaluate the amount of SOC that can be stored as well as resulting changes in N$_2$O emissions to better estimate the climate benefits of these management options. Based on quantitative data obtained from published meta‐analyses and from our current level of understanding, we conclude that the climate mitigation induced by increased SOC storage is generally overestimated if associated N$_2$O emissions are not considered but, with the exception of reduced tillage, is never fully offset. Some options (e.g, biochar or non‐pyrogenic C amendment application) may even decrease N$_2$O emissions.; Pour respecter l'accord de Paris visant à limiter le réchauffement climatique à moins de 2°C d'ici 2100, et éventuellement à moins de 1,5°C, des réductions drastiques des émissions de gaz à effet de serre sont obligatoires mais pas suffisantes. Le déploiement à grande échelle d'autres stratégies d'atténuation du climat est également nécessaire. Parmi celles-ci, l'augmentation des stocks de carbone organique du sol (SOC) est un levier important car le carbone dans les sols peut être stocké pendant de longues périodes et les options de gestion des terres pour y parvenir existent déjà et ont été largement testées. Toutefois, les sols agricoles sont également une source importante d'oxyde nitreux (N$_2$O), un puissant gaz à effet de serre, et l'augmentation du SOC peut influer sur les émissions de N$_$O, provoquant probablement une augmentation dans de nombreux cas, tendant ainsi à compenser le bénéfice du changement climatique résultant du stockage accru du SOC. Nous passons ici en revue les principales options de gestion agricole pour l'augmentation des stocks de SOC. Nous évaluons la quantité de SOC qui peut être stockée ainsi que les changements qui en résultent dans les émissions de N$_2$O afin de mieux estimer les avantages climatiques de ces options de gestion. Sur la base des données quantitatives obtenues à partir de méta-analyses publiées et de notre niveau de compréhension actuel, nous concluons que l'atténuation du climat induite par un stockage accru du SOC est généralement surestimée si l'on ne tient pas compte des émissions de N$_2$O associées, mais, à l'exception du travail réduit du sol, n'est jamais totalement compensée. Certaines options (par exemple, le biochar ou l'application d'un amendement C non pyrogène) peuvent même réduire les émissions de N$_2$O.

Published
2021

2. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales

Author

Yoshihide Wada, Fang Zhao, Yasushi Honda, Thomas Hickler, Jörg Steinkamp, Nikolay Khabarov, Tobias Stacke, Lila Warszawski, David N. Bresch, Tobias Geiger, Wim Thiery, Kazuya Nishina, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Manolis Grillakis, Iliusi Vega, Kerry Emanuel, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Stefan Lange, Naota Hanasaki, Jinfeng Chang, Jan Volkholz, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Christian Folberth, Matthias Büchner, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Minoru Yoshikawa, Sven Willner, Christoph Müller, Katja Frieler, Hong Yang, Jacob Schewe, Simon N. Gosling, Alexandra Henrot, Dieter Gerten, Marie Dury, Veronika Huber, Chao Yue, Wenfeng Liu, Ted Veldkamp, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, ERCA 821010 641816 SAW‐2016‐PIK‐1, 603864 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF: 01LA1829A, 01LS1201A2, 01LS1711F Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, ETH: Fel‐45 15‐1 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, MINECO: PCIN‐2017‐046, We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for constructive feedback. We thank three other anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper submitted to a different journal. This research was supported in part by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant numbers 01LS1201A2, 01LS1711F, and 01LA1829A) and the EU FP7 HELIX project (grant number 603864). Some authors acknowledge support from the Leibniz Competition projects SAW‐2013‐PIK‐5 (EXPACT) and SAW‐2016‐PIK‐1 (ENGAGE). Some authors acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 821010 (CASCADES). N. H., K. N., and Y. H. acknowledge support from the ERTD Funds 2RF‐1802 and S‐14 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. W. T. was supported by an ETH Zurich postdoctoral fellowship (Fel‐45 15‐1). V. H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MINECO, grant number PCIN‐2017‐046). P. C. acknowledges support from the CLAND ANR Convergence Institute. S. L. acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 641816 (CRESCENDO). Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL., Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Water and Climate Risk

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, Population, 0207 environmental engineering, FLOOD RISK, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, 02 engineering and technology, Subtropics, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, Population density, Latitude, Climate-related extreme events, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, BURNED AREA, GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, 020701 environmental engineering, education, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Event (probability theory), education.field_of_study, Science & Technology, Land use, Global warming, VEGETATION MODEL ORCHIDEE, Geology, 15. Life on land, TERRESTRIAL CARBON BALANCE, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Physical Sciences, TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, HURRICANE INTENSITY, Environmental science, Tropical cyclone, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences, INCORPORATING SPITFIRE
Abstract

Summarization: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia. Presented on: Earth's Future

Published
2020

3. Climate change impact on future wildfire danger and activity in southern Europe: a review

Author

Javier Madrigal, Jean-Luc Dupuy, Carmen Hernando, Julien Ruffault, François Pimont, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Hélène Fargeon, Paulo Fernandes, Mercedes Guijarro, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centro de Investigacion Forestal (INIA-CIFOR), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Universidade do Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro [Portugal] (UTAD), This paper has been prepared under the framework of the project MedWildFireLab (‘Global Change Impacts on Wildland Fire Behaviour and Uses in Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems, towards a «wall less» Mediterranean Wildland Fire Laboratory’) funded by ERANET FORESTERRA, and project UID/AGR/04033/2019 funded by the FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia)., European Project: 138533,FCT::,FORESTERRA/2014,FORESTERRA/0001/2014(2014), Spanish National Research Council [Madrid] (CSIC), and Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyUID/AGR/04033/2019

Subjects
environmental_sciences, 0106 biological sciences, Mediterranean climate, Forest management, Climate change, Climate-fire relationship, FWI, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Forest fuels, Mediterranean forests, Burnt areas, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, 11. Sustainability, Ecosystem, Projections, Ecology, Global warming, Forestry, 15. Life on land, Arid, Disturbance (ecology), 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Physical geography, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract

Wildfire is the main disturbance in forested ecosystems of southern Europe and is due to complex interactions between climate-weather, fuels and people. Warmer and drier conditions projected in this region are expected to profoundly affect wildfires, which will impact ecosystems and humans. We review the scientific literature addressing the assessment of climate change impacts on wildfires in southern Europe, with a twofold objective: (i) report the trends in wildfire danger and activity projected under warming climate in southern Europe and (ii) discuss the limitations of wildfire projections under the specific biogeographical context of southern Europe.We identified 22 projection studies that examined future wildfire danger or wildfire activity at local, regional or continental scale. Under the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, we found that projections studies estimate an increase in future fire danger and burnt areas varying, on average, from 2 to 4 % and from 15 to 25 % per decade, respectively. Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. While all studies agreed on the direction of changes, further comparisons on the magnitude of increase remained challenging because of heterogeneous methodological choices between projections studies (climate models, projection period, spatial scale and fire metrics). We then described three main sources of uncertainty that may affect the reliability of wildfire projections: climate projections, climate-fire models, and the influences of fuel load/structure and human related factors on the climate-fire relationships. We finally suggest research directions to address some of these issues for the purpose of refining fire danger and fire activity projections in southern Europe.

Published
2020