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Dengue pathogenesis is extremely complex. Dengue infections are thought to induce life-long immunity from homologous challenges as well as a multi-factorial heterologous risk enhancement. Here, we use the data collected from a prospective cohort study of dengue infections in schoolchildren in Vietnam to disentangle how serotype interactions modulate clinical disease risk in the year following serum collection. We use multinomial logistic regression to correlate the yearly neutralizing antibody measurements obtained with each infecting serotype in all dengue clinical cases collected over the course of 6 years (2004–2009). This allowed us to extrapolate a fully discretised matrix of serotype interactions, revealing clear signals of increased risk of clinical illness in individuals primed with a previous dengue infection. The sequences of infections which produced a higher risk of dengue fever upon secondary infection are: DEN1 followed by DEN2; DEN1 followed by DEN4; DEN2 followed by DEN3; and DEN4 followed by DEN3. We also used this longitudinal data to train a machine learning algorithm on antibody titre differences between consecutive years to unveil asymptomatic dengue infections and estimate asymptomatic infection to clinical case ratios over time, allowing for a better characterisation of the population’s past exposure to different serotypes.

Background Mass drug administration for elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is recommended by WHO in some settings. We used consensus modelling to understand how to optimise the effects of mass drug administration in areas with low malaria transmission. Methods We collaborated with researchers doing field trials to establish a standard intervention scenario and standard transmission setting, and we input these parameters into four previously published models. We then varied the number of rounds of mass drug administration, coverage, duration, timing, importation of infection, and pre-administration transmission levels. The outcome of interest was the percentage reduction in annual mean prevalence of P falciparum parasite rate as measured by PCR in the third year after the final round of mass drug administration. Findings The models predicted differing magnitude of the effects of mass drug administration, but consensus answers were reached for several factors. Mass drug administration was predicted to reduce transmission over a longer timescale than accounted for by the prophylactic effect alone. Percentage reduction in transmission was predicted to be higher and last longer at lower baseline transmission levels. Reduction in transmission resulting from mass drug administration was predicted to be temporary, and in the absence of scale-up of other interventions, such as vector control, transmission would return to pre-administration levels. The proportion of the population treated in a year was a key determinant of simulated effectiveness, irrespective of whether people are treated through high coverage in a single round or new individuals are reached by implementation of several rounds. Mass drug administration was predicted to be more effective if continued over 2 years rather than 1 year, and if done at the time of year when transmission is lowest. Interpretation Mass drug administration has the potential to reduce transmission for a limited time, but is not an effective replacement for existing vector control. Unless elimination is achieved, mass drug administration has to be repeated regularly for sustained effect.

Background The emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent. Methods and findings After establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin- and piperaquine-resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention. Conclusions Added to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01872702, In a cluster-randomized trial, Lorenz von Seidlin & colleagues investigate whether mass drug administration can accelerate malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion., Author summary Why was this study done? The emergence and spread of multidrug resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threaten regional and global malaria control. Mass drug administrations (MDAs) are controversial but could be useful in the control and elimination of malaria. We wanted to know whether well-resourced MDAs can accelerate malaria elimination in the GMS. What did the researchers do and find? We randomised 16 villages (clusters) to receive MDAs with antimalarial drugs (dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine [DP] plus low-dose primaquine) either in year 1 or year 2 of the study. The entire village population (except pregnant women and children under the age of 6 months) was invited to take 3 consecutive daily doses of antimalarial drugs 3 times at monthly intervals. Everyone was followed up for 1 year; all malaria cases were recorded, and quarterly malaria surveys were conducted using highly sensitive high-volume PCR detection. Most (87%) of the villagers completed at least 1 round of the antimalarial drugs, which were well tolerated. The intervention had a substantial impact on the prevalence of P. falciparum infections by month 3 after the start of the MDAs. Over the subsequent 9 months, P. falciparum infections returned but stayed below baseline levels. What do these findings mean? MDAs might be a useful tool to accelerate falciparum malaria elimination in low-endemicity settings. The effectiveness of MDAs depends on continued support for village health workers, adequate drug efficacy, high levels of community participation, and carefully planned roll out to minimise the risk of malaria reintroduction.

The largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak in a decade in Latin America is underway in the Southeast of Brazil. In this article we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF. We argue that mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance in the southern United States, Latin America (especially Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) and Europe (especially Portugal, Spain, Italy and Germany).

The largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak in a decade in Latin America is underway in the Southeast of Brazil. In this article we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF. We argue that mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance in the southern United States, Latin America (especially Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) and Europe (especially Portugal, Spain, Italy and Germany).

Summary Background Potentially untreatable Plasmodium falciparum malaria threatens the Greater Mekong subregion. A previous series of pilot projects in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam suggested that mass drug administration was safe, and when added to provision of early diagnosis and treatment, could reduce the reservoir of P falciparum and interrupts transmission. We examined the effects of a scaled-up programme of this strategy in four townships of eastern Myanmar on the incidence of P falciparum malaria. Methods The programme was implemented in the four townships of Myawaddy, Kawkareik, Hlaingbwe, and Hpapun in Kayin state, Myanmar. Increased access to early diagnosis and treatment of malaria was provided to all villages through community-based malaria posts equipped with rapid diagnostic tests, and treatment with artemether–lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine. Villages were identified as malarial hotspots (operationally defined as >40% malaria, of which 20% was P falciparum ) with surveys using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR either randomly or targeted at villages where the incidence of clinical cases of P falciparum malaria remained high (ie, >100 cases per 1000 individuals per year) despite a functioning malaria post. During each survey, a 2 mL sample of venous blood was obtained from randomly selected adults. Hotspots received targeted mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine plus single-dose primaquine once per month for 3 consecutive months in addition to the malaria posts. The main outcome was the change in village incidence of clinical P falciparum malaria, quantified using a multivariate, generalised, additive multilevel model. Malaria prevalence was measured in the hotspots 12 months after mass drug administration. Findings Between May 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017, 1222 malarial posts were opened, providing early diagnosis and treatment to an estimated 365 000 individuals. Incidence of P falciparum malaria decreased by 60 to 98% in the four townships. 272 prevalence surveys were undertaken and 69 hotspot villages were identified. By April 2017, 50 hotspots were treated with mass drug administration. Hotspot villages had a three times higher incidence of P falciparum at malarial posts than neighbouring villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2·7, 95% CI 1·8–4·4). Early diagnosis and treatment was associated with a significant decrease in P falciparum incidence in hotspots (IRR 0·82, 95% CI 0·76–0·88 per quarter) and in other villages (0·75, 0·73–0·78 per quarter). Mass drug administration was associated with a five-times decrease in P falciparum incidence within hotspot villages (IRR 0·19, 95% CI 0·13–0·26). By April, 2017, 965 villages (79%) of 1222 corresponding to 104 village tracts were free from P falciparum malaria for at least 6 months. The prevalence of wild-type genotype for K13 molecular markers of artemisinin resistance was stable over the three years (39%; 249/631). Interpretation Providing early diagnosis and effective treatment substantially decreased village-level incidence of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum malaria in hard-to-reach, politically sensitive regions of eastern Myanmar. Targeted mass drug administration significantly reduced malaria incidence in hotspots. If these activities could proceed in all contiguous endemic areas in addition to standard control programmes already implemented, there is a possibility of subnational elimination of P falciparum . Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Regional Artemisinin Initiative (Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), and the Wellcome Trust.