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Conflict in Yemen has displaced millions and destroyed health infrastructure, resulting in the world’s largest humanitarian disaster. The objective of this paper is to examine mortality in Yemen to determine whether it has increased significantly since the conflict began in 2015 compared to the preceding period. We analysed 91 household surveys using the Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions methodology, covering 2,864 clusters undertaken from 2012–2019, and deaths from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project database covering the conflict period 2015–2019. We used a Poisson-Gamma model to estimate pre-conflict (μp, baseline value) and conflict period (μc) mean death rates using household survey data from 2012–2019. To analyse changes in the distribution of deaths and estimate nationwide excess deaths, we applied pre- and post-conflict death rates to total population numbers. Further, we tested for association between excess death and security levels by governorate. The national estimated crude death rate/10,000 in the conflict period was 0.20 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.24), which is meaningfully higher than the estimated baseline rate of 0.19 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.22). Applying the conflict period rate to the Yemeni population, we estimated 168,212 excess deaths that occurred between 2015 and 2019. There was an 17.8% increase in overall deaths above the baseline during the conflict period. A large share (67.2%) of the excess deaths were due to combat-related violence. At the governorate level, posterior crude death rate varied across the country, ranging from 0.03 to 0.63 per 10,000 per day. Hajjah, Ibb, and Al Jawf governorates presented the highest total excess deaths. Insecurity level was not statistically associated with excess deaths. The health situation in Yemen was poor before the crisis in 2015. During the conflict, intentional violence from air and ground strikes were responsible for more deaths than indirect or non-violent causes. The provision of humanitarian aid by foreign agencies may have helped contain increases in indirect deaths from the conflict.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission in African highland areas can be prone to epidemics, with minor fluctuations in temperature or altitude resulting in highly heterogeneous transmission. In the Kenyan Highlands, where malaria prevalence has been increasing, characterising malaria incidence and identifying risk factors for infection is complicated by asymptomatic infection. METHODS: This all-age cohort study, one element of the Malaria Transmission Consortium, involved monthly follow-up of 3155 residents of the Kisii and Rachuonyo South districts during June 2009-June 2010. Participants were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic testing at every visit, regardless of symptoms. RESULTS: The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 0.2 cases per person, although infections were clustered within individuals and over time, with the majority of infections detected in the last month of the cohort study. Overall, incidence was higher in the Rachuonyo district and infections were detected most frequently in 5-10-year-olds. The majority of infections were asymptomatic (58%). Travel away from the study area was a notable risk factor for infection. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying risk factors for malaria infection can help to guide targeting of interventions to populations most likely to be exposed to malaria.

Public health professionals in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) have limited access to continuing education, including workshops and conferences in public health. Held under the theme Innovative Approaches: Adapting to the Current EMR Context, the Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network (EMPHNET) organized and conducted the Sixth EMPHNET Regional Conference from March 26 to 29, 2018. This paper summarizes the key activities including workshops, roundtable discussions, oral and poster presentations, keynote speeches, and side meetings. Before the opening, 5 preconference workshops were held: "Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) Accreditation," "Innovative Public Health Surveillance," "Human and Animal Brucellosis," "Rapid Response Teams," and "Polio Transition and Routine Immunization." The conference hosted 6 roundtable discussions: "Consolidation of the FETP Network," "One Health to Achieve Global Health Security," "Polio Eradication Efforts and Transition Planning for Measles Elimination," "Mobile Data Collection and Other Innovative Tools to Enhance Decision Making," "Confronting Candida auris: An Emerging Multidrug-resistant Global Pathogen," and "Functioning and Sustainable Country Public Health Emergency Response Operation Framework." One of the conference's key objectives was to provide a space for FETP residents, graduates, and public health professionals to showcase achievements. A total of 421 abstracts were submitted and after professional review, 34.9% (147/421) were accepted (111 for oral presentations and 36 for poster presentations) and published by Iproceeding. The conference met the primary objectives of showcasing the public health accomplishments and contributions of the EMR, encouraging the exchange of ideas and coordination among stakeholders, and engaging cross-sectoral workforce in producing recommendations for approaching regional and global health concerns. Moreover, the conference presented a unique opportunity for FETPs and other public health professionals from the Mediterranean region to present their significant scientific work and also facilitated networking among professionals. EMPHNET strives to continue to present similar exchange opportunities for public health professionals in the region.

Extraction and amplification of DNA from dried blood spots (DBS) collected in field studies is commonly used for detection of Plasmodium falciparum. However, there have been few systematic efforts to determine the effects of storage and extraction methods on the sensitivity of DNA amplification. We investigated the effects of storage conditions, length of storage, and DNA extraction methods on amplification via three PCR-based assays using field samples and laboratory controls. Samples stored as DBS for 2 or more years at ambient temperature showed a significant loss of sensitivity that increased with time; after 10 years only 10% samples with parasite densities > 1,000 parasites/μL were detectable by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Conversely, DBS and extracted DNA stored at -20°C showed no loss of sensitivity with time. Samples with low parasite densities amplified more successfully with saponin/Chelex compared with spin-column-based extraction, though the latter method performed better on samples with higher parasite densities stored for 2 years at ambient temperature. DNA extracted via both methods was stable after 20 freeze-thaw cycles. Our results suggest that DBS should be stored at -20°C or extracted immediately, especially if anticipating 2 or more years of storage.

Artemisinin resistance was recently shown to have spread or emerged on the Thailand/Myanmar border. Evidence is accumulating that the parasite clearance time after artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is increasing in settings in Asia and Africa. It is currently unknown if an extended parasite clearance time after ACTs has consequences for the individual patient or confers a higher malaria transmission potential. 298 children in Mbita, Western Kenya, with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were randomized to artemether-lumefantrine (AL, n = 153) ordihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, n = 145). Parasite carriage post-treatment was determined by microscopy and qPCR, gametocyte carriage by quantitative nucleic acid sequence based amplication. Infectiousness to mosquitoes was determined by mosquito membrane feeding assays. Both drugs were efficacious as judged by standard trial outcomes. Sub-patent residual parasitaemia on day 3 was detected by qPCR in 36.11% (95% CI 25.11 - 48.29) of children treated with AL, and in 30.16% (95% CI 19.23 - 43.02) of children treated with DP. After adjustment for age, treatment arm and enrolment parasite density, children with an extended parasite clearance time were significantly more likely to have microscopically detected recurrent parasitaemia during follow-up (Odds Ratio: 19.51, 95% CI 5.24 - 72.71, p < 0.001). Children with an extended parasite clearance time were also more likely to be infectious to mosquitoes (Odds Ratio 2.76; 95% CI 1.14 - 6.67, p = 0.02) and gave rise to a higher oocyst load in mosquitoes (Incidence Rate Ratio 2.80, 95% CI 1.49 - 5.24, p = 0.001). Our findings indicate that an extended parasite clearance time after ACTs has consequences for the individual patient and for the population at large due to higher transmission potential. The high prevalence of residual subpatent parasitaemia after treatment may be due to novel parasite genotypes with reduced drug sensitivity, inadequate population-level immunity, or the higher sensitivity of qPCR for detection of persisting parasites.

Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise ofoutbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control‘. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.