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By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic, and only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections within weeks is unlikely. The emergence of a later second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A sufficiently powerful tracking and tracing policy--implemented at the time of writing (10th May 2020)--will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with less than 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation, using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies., 31 pages, 12 figures, one table. Technical report

Proceedings of the ICA 2019 and EAA Euroregio : 23rd International Congress on Acoustics, integrating 4th EAA Euroregio 2019 : 9-13 September 2019, Aachen, Germany / proceedings editor: Martin Ochmann, Michael Vorländer, Janina Fels 23rd International Congress on Acoustics, integrating 4th EAA Euroregio 2019, ICA 2019, Aachen, Germany, 9 Sep 2019 - 13 Sep 2019; Aachen (2019)., Published by Aachen

Auditory signals arrive at the ear as a mixture that the brain must decompose into distinct sources, based to a large extent on acoustic properties of the sounds. An important question concerns whether listeners have voluntary control over how many sources they perceive. This has been studied using pure tones H and L presented in the repeating pattern HLH-HLH-, which can form a bistable percept, heard either as an integrated whole (HLH-) or as segregated into high (H-H-) and low (-L—) sequences. Although instructing listeners to try to integrate or segregate sounds affects reports of what they hear, this could reflect a response bias rather than a perceptual effect. We had human listeners (15 males, 12 females) continuously report their perception of such sequences and recorded neural activity using magneto-encephalography. During neutral listening, a classifier trained on patterns of neural activity distinguished between periods of integrated and segregated perception. In other conditions, participants tried to influence their perception by allocating attention either to the whole sequence, or to a subset of the sounds. They reported hearing the desired percept for a greater proportion of time than when listening neutrally. Critically, neural activity supported these reports; stimulus-locked brain responses in auditory cortex were more likely to resemble the signature of segregation when participants tried to hear segregation than when attempting to perceive integration. These results indicate that listeners can influence how many sound sources they perceive, as reflected in neural responses that track both the input and its perceptual organization.Significance StatementCan we consciously influence our perception of the external world? We address this question using sound sequences that can be heard either as coming from a single source, or as two distinct auditory streams. Listeners reported spontaneous changes in their perception between these two interpretations while we recorded neural activity to identify signatures of such integration and segregation. They also indicated that they could, to some extent, choose between these alternatives. This claim was supported by corresponding changes in responses in auditory cortex. By linking neural and behavioral correlates of perception we demonstrate that the number of objects we perceive can depend not only on the physical attributes of our environment, but also on how we intend to experience it.