1. A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
- Author
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M. Kageyama, L. C. Sime, M. Sicard, M.-V. Guarino, A. de Vernal, R. Stein, D. Schroeder, I. Malmierca-Vallet, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Bitz, P. Braconnot, E. C. Brady, J. Cao, M. A. Chamberlain, D. Feltham, C. Guo, A. N. LeGrande, G. Lohmann, K. J. Meissner, L. Menviel, P. Morozova, K. H. Nisancioglu, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, R. O'ishi, S. Ramos Buarque, D. Salas y Melia, S. Sherriff-Tadano, J. Stroeve, X. Shi, B. Sun, R. A. Tomas, E. Volodin, N. K. H. Yeung, Q. Zhang, Z. Zhang, W. Zheng, T. Ziehn, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Département des sciences de la terre et de l'atmosphère [Montréal] (SCTA), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre (GEOTOP), Université de Montréal (UdeM)-McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]-École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-Concordia University [Montreal]-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]-Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Concordia University [Montreal]-Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
010506 paleontology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Stratigraphy ,lcsh:Environmental protection ,01 natural sciences ,lcsh:Environmental pollution ,Sea ice ,Cryosphere ,lcsh:TD169-171.8 ,[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology ,Sea ice concentration ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,Global and Planetary Change ,Coupled model intercomparison project ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Paleontology ,Arctic ice pack ,13. Climate action ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,Climatology ,Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ,Interglacial ,lcsh:TD172-193.5 ,Climate model ,Geology - Abstract
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.
- Published
- 2021
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