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China seeks a favorable balance of power in Northeast Asia, a process of reunification on the Korean Peninsula that pays suitable attention to China’s national interests, and denuclearization. The oldest concern is the region’s balance of power. The precarious situation of North Korea fuels speculation that the regime may collapse before long. Chinese analysts see no such prospects. Two competing political-security blocs are on the horizon, repeating the basic power structure when the inter-Korean rivalry arose. China reaps benefits from division on the peninsula. Both Koreas would seek China’s support, allowing it room to maneuver. North Korea serves as a buffer zone and as a counterweight against US rebalancing. China’s strategic goals do not call for perpetuation of the divided peninsula, but its transformation into a neutral country. Until then, the status quo is preferable.

After fighting a war shoulder to shoulder against the United States-led United Nations (UN) forces in the Korean War, China and North Korea forged a comrade-plus-brother relationship. This relationship was soon tested as China and the Soviet Union, the two leading actors in the communist camp, turned against each other and engaged in a prolonged ideological polemic. The Sino-Soviet split not only reshaped the global geopolitical landscape, but also had a profound impact on the international communist movement. The socialist camp crumbled and member states, including North Korea, were forced to take sides.