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1. Reporting guideline for the early-stage clinical evaluation of decision support systems driven by artificial intelligence: DECIDE-AI (May, 10.1038/s41591-022-01772-9, 2022)

Author

Vasey, B., Nagendran, M., Campbell, B., Clifton, D.A., Collins, G.S., Denaxas, S., Denniston, A.K., Faes, L., Geerts, B., Ibrahim, M., Liu, X.X., Mateen, B.A., Mathur, P., McCradden, M.D., Morgan, L., Ordish, J., Rogers, C., Saria, S., Ting, D.S.W., Watkinson, P., Weber, W., Wheatstone, P., McCulloch, P., and DECIDE-AI Expert Grp

Published
2022

2. Reflections on modern methods: demystifying robust standard errors for epidemiologists

Author

Mansournia, M.A., Nazemipour, M., Naimi, A.I., Collins, G.S., and Campbell, M.J.

Abstract

All statistical estimates from data have uncertainty due to sampling variability. A standard error is one measure of uncertainty of a sample estimate (such as the mean of a set of observations or a regression coefficient). Standard errors are usually calculated based on assumptions underpinning the statistical model used in the estimation. However, there are situations in which some assumptions of the statistical model including the variance or covariance of the outcome across observations are violated, which leads to biased standard errors. One simple remedy is to userobust standard errors, which are robust to violations of certain assumptions of the statistical model. Robust standard errors are frequently used in clinical papers (e.g. to account for clustering of observations), although the underlying concepts behind robust standard errors and when to use them are often not well understood. In this paper, we demystify robust standard errors using several worked examples in simple situations in which model assumptions involving the variance or covariance of the outcome are misspecified. These are: (i) when the observed variances are different, (ii) when the variance specified in the model is wrong and (iii) when the assumption of independence is wrong.

Published
2021

4. Differential mortality and the excess rates of hip fracture association with type 2 diabetes:: accounting for competing risks in fracture prediction matters

Author

Tebe, C., Martinez-Laguna, C., Moreno, V., Cooper, Cyrus, Diez-Perez, A., Collins, G.S., and Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

Subjects
endocrine system diseases, nutritional and metabolic diseases
Abstract

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with a reduced life expectancy. Latest published evidence suggests an increased risk of fractures among T2DM patients. We conducted a population‐based cohort study to determine the impact of mortality as a competing risk in the study of the association between T2DM and hip fracture rates. Participants were all diagnosed T2DM patients registered in the SIDIAP database aged 65 years and older; up to two non‐T2DM were matched by age, sex, and primary care facility. We used Cox regression models to estimate cause‐specific Hazard Ratio (HR) of death or hip fracture according to T2DM status. Fine and Gray models were then fitted to estimate the Subhazard Ratio (SHR) of hip fracture while accounting for competing risk with death and to estimate the probability of hip fracture within 5 years. 55,891 T2DM and 103,093 matched non‐T2DM patients were observed for a median of 8 years. Mortality was 48.8 per 1000 person years (py) in T2DM, and 33.8per 1,000 py in non‐T2DM; hip fracture rates were 6.0 per 1,000 py and 4.9per 1,000 py respectively. Cox models confirmed a significant association for death and hip fracture: HR = 1.51 [95% CI 1.48 to 1.55], and HR = 1.32 [95% CI 1.24 to 1.40] respectively. Accounting for death as a competing event (Fine‐Gray models), the association between T2DM and hip fracture risk remained statistically significant (sHR = 1.15 [95% CI 1.09 to 1.21]) and the probability of a hip fracture within 5 years was 2.3% for TD2M and 1.9% for non‐TD2M patients compared to 2.6% and 2.1% respectively using KM estimates. T2DM patients have a 50% increased mortality and, after adjusting for differential survival at 5 years, a 21% increased incidence of hip fracture when compared to matched non‐T2DM. Failing to account for differential mortality leads to an overestimation of fracture risk.

Published
2018

5. Quantifying the Release of Climate‐Active Gases by Large Meteorite Impacts With a Case Study of Chicxulub

Author

Artemieva , Natalia, Morgan , Joanna, Gulick , S.P.S., Chenot , E., Christeson , G.L., Claeys , P., Cockell , C.S., Coolen , M.J.L., Ferrière , L., Gebhardt , C., Goto , K., Green , S., Jones , H., Kring , D.A., Lofi , J., Lowery , C.M., Ocampo-Torres , R., Perez-Cruz , L., Pickersgill , A.E., Poelchau , M., Rae , A.S.P., Rasmussen , C., Rebolledo-Vieyra , M., Riller , U., Sato , H., Smit , J., Tikoo , S.M., Tomioka , N., Urrutia-Fucugauchi , J., Whalen , M.T., Wittmann , A., Xiao , L., Yamaguchi , K.E., Zylberman , W., Collins , G.S., Bralower , T.J., Biogéosciences [Dijon] ( BGS ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Géosciences Montpellier, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane ( UAG ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut de chimie et procédés pour l'énergie, l'environnement et la santé ( ICPEES ), Université de Strasbourg ( UNISTRA ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Matériaux et nanosciences d'Alsace, Université de Strasbourg ( UNISTRA ) -Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar ( Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Strasbourg ( UNISTRA ) -Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar ( Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement de géosciences de l'environnement ( CEREGE ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Collège de France ( CdF ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ), Funding from the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), the International Continental scientific Drilling Project (ICDP), NASA grant 15-EXO15_2-0054 and NERC grant NE/P005217/1., Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), The Leverhulme Trust, Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] [Dijon] (BGS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Institut de chimie et procédés pour l'énergie, l'environnement et la santé (ICPEES), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Matériaux et nanosciences d'Alsace (FMNGE), Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Matériaux et nanosciences d'Alsace, Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Matériaux et Nanosciences Grand-Est (MNGE), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Matériaux et nanosciences d'Alsace (FMNGE), and Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Earth science, Potentially hazardous object, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Sediment, [ SDU.STU ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Shock (mechanics), Water depth, Geophysics, Meteorite, Volume (thermodynamics), 13. Climate action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Sedimentary rock, Porosity, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

9 pages; International audience; Potentially hazardous asteroids and comets have hit Earth throughout its history, with catastrophic consequences in the case of the Chicxulub impact. Here we reexamine one of the mechanisms that allow an impact to have a global effect—the release of climate-active gases from sedimentary rocks. We use the SOVA hydrocode and model ejected materials for a sufficient time after impact to quantify the volume of gases that reach high enough altitudes (> 25 km) to have global consequences. We vary impact angle, sediment thickness and porosity, water depth, and shock pressure for devolatilization and present the results in a dimensionless form so that the released gases can be estimated for any impact into a sedimentary target. Using new constraints on the Chicxulub impact angle and target composition, we estimate that 325 ± 130 Gt of sulfur and 425 ± 160 Gt CO2 were ejected and produced severe changes to the global climate.

Published
2017
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7. Momentum Transfer from the DART Mission Kinetic Impact on Asteroid Dimorphos

Author

Andrew F. Cheng, Harrison F. Agrusa, Brent W. Barbee, Alex J. Meyer, Tony L. Farnham, Sabina D. Raducan, Derek C. Richardson, Elisabetta Dotto, Angelo Zinzi, Vincenzo Della Corte, Thomas S. Statler, Steven Chesley, Shantanu P. Naidu, Masatoshi Hirabayashi, Jian-Yang Li, Siegfried Eggl, Olivier S. Barnouin, Nancy L. Chabot, Sidney Chocron, Gareth S. Collins, R. Terik Daly, Thomas M. Davison, Mallory E. DeCoster, Carolyn M. Ernst, Fabio Ferrari, Dawn M. Graninger, Seth A. Jacobson, Martin Jutzi, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, Robert Luther, Joshua R. Lyzhoft, Patrick Michel, Naomi Murdoch, Ryota Nakano, Eric Palmer, Andrew S. Rivkin, Daniel J. Scheeres, Angela M. Stickle, Jessica M. Sunshine, Josep M. Trigo-Rodriguez, Jean-Baptiste Vincent, James D. Walker, Kai Wünnemann, Yun Zhang, Marilena Amoroso, Ivano Bertini, John R. Brucato, Andrea Capannolo, Gabriele Cremonese, Massimo Dall’Ora, Prasanna J. D. Deshapriya, Igor Gai, Pedro H. Hasselmann, Simone Ieva, Gabriele Impresario, Stavro L. Ivanovski, Michèle Lavagna, Alice Lucchetti, Elena M. Epifani, Dario Modenini, Maurizio Pajola, Pasquale Palumbo, Davide Perna, Simone Pirrotta, Giovanni Poggiali, Alessandro Rossi, Paolo Tortora, Marco Zannoni, Giovanni Zanotti, Cheng A.F., Agrusa H.F., Barbee B.W., Meyer A.J., Farnham T.L., Raducan S.D., Richardson D.C., Dotto E., Zinzi A., Della Corte V., Statler T.S., Chesley S., Naidu S.P., Hirabayashi M., Li J.Y., Eggl S., Barnouin O.S., Chabot N.L., Chocron S., Collins G.S., Daly R.T., Davison T.M., DeCoster M.E., Ernst C.M., Ferrari F., Graninger D.M., Jacobson S.A., Jutzi M., Kumamoto K.M., Luther R., Lyzhoft J.R., Michel P., Murdoch N., Nakano R., Palmer E., Rivkin A.S., Scheeres D.J., Stickle A.M., Sunshine J.M., Trigo-Rodriguez J.M., Vincent J.B., Walker J.D., Wünnemann K., Zhang Y., Amoroso M., Bertini I., Brucato J.R., Capannolo A., Cremonese G., Dall’Ora M., Deshapriya P.J.D., Gai I., Hasselmann P.H., Ieva S., Impresario G., Ivanovski S.L., Lavagna M., Lucchetti A., Epifani E.M., Modenini D., Pajola M., Palumbo P., Perna D., Pirrotta S., Poggiali G., Rossi A., Tortora P., Zannoni M., Zanotti G., Joseph Louis LAGRANGE (LAGRANGE), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CNRS through the MITI interdisciplinary programmes, CNES, ESA, and European Project: 870377,NEO-MAPP

Subjects
asteroids, bulk density, geometry, 530 Physics, [SDU.ASTR.EP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Earth and Planetary Astrophysics [astro-ph.EP], kinetic, FOS: Physical sciences, satellite imagery, size, Article, motion, ma, controlled study, uncertainty, planetary defense, Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP), Multidisciplinary, asteroid, 520 Astronomy, momentum transfer, 620 Engineering, astronomy, preliminary data, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], DART, Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
Abstract

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission performed a kinetic impact on asteroid Dimorphos, the satellite of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, at 23:14 UTC on September 26, 2022 as a planetary defense test. DART was the first hypervelocity impact experiment on an asteroid at size and velocity scales relevant to planetary defense, intended to validate kinetic impact as a means of asteroid deflection. Here we report the first determination of the momentum transferred to an asteroid by kinetic impact. Based on the change in the binary orbit period, we find an instantaneous reduction in Dimorphos's along-track orbital velocity component of 2.70 +/- 0.10 mm/s, indicating enhanced momentum transfer due to recoil from ejecta streams produced by the impact. For a Dimorphos bulk density range of 1,500 to 3,300 kg/m$^3$, we find that the expected value of the momentum enhancement factor, $\beta$, ranges between 2.2 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos. If Dimorphos and Didymos are assumed to have equal densities of 2,400 kg/m$^3$, $\beta$= 3.61 +0.19/-0.25 (1 $\sigma$). These $\beta$ values indicate that significantly more momentum was transferred to Dimorphos from the escaping impact ejecta than was incident with DART. Therefore, the DART kinetic impact was highly effective in deflecting the asteroid Dimorphos., Comment: accepted by Nature

Published
2023
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8. Time to health-related quality of life improvement analysis was developed to enhance evaluation of modern anticancer therapies

Author

Paola Fazi, Gary S. Collins, Amélie Anota, Kristel Van Steen, Francesco Cottone, Emilie Charton, Marco Vignetti, Kathrin Sommer, F. Efficace, Fausto Castagnetti, Johannes M. Giesinger, David Cella, Jacobien M. Kieffer, Neil K. Aaronson, Cottone F., Collins G.S., Anota A., Sommer K., Giesinger J.M., Kieffer J.M., Aaronson N.K., Van Steen K., Charton E., Castagnetti F., Fazi P., Vignetti M., Cella D., and Efficace F.

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factors, Adolescent, Epidemiology, Health-related quality of life, medicine.medical_treatment, Newly diagnosed, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Competing risks, Proof of Concept Study, Targeted therapy, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, 0302 clinical medicine, Quality of life, Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive, Neoplasms, Medicine, Humans, Cumulative incidence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Intensive care medicine, Cancer, Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Health related quality of life, Aged, 80 and over, business.industry, Competing risk, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Quality Improvement, humanities, Progression-Free Survival, Pyrimidines, Treatment Outcome, Cohort, Quality of Life, Time to sustained HRQOL improvement, Female, Immunotherapy, Targeted therapie, Time to HRQOL improvement, business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

Objectives Major advances have recently been made in the treatments of cancer, which now also have the potential to improve patients’ health-related quality of life (HRQOL). We propose the time to HRQOL improvement (TTI) and the time to sustained HRQOL improvement (TTSI) as potentially important cancer outcomes to be used in longitudinal HRQOL analyses. Study Design and Setting As proof of principle, we defined TTI and TTSI, using the Fine–Gray model to include competing risks in estimates, in a case study in real life of a cohort of newly diagnosed patients with cancer receiving a targeted therapy. HRQOL was evaluated before and during therapy with six assessments over a 24-month period, using the well-validated European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire–Core 30. Results For each assessed HRQOL domain, we assessed TTI and TTSI and estimated the cumulative incidence of patients’ clinically meaningful improvements, also accounting for the occurrence of competing events. Conclusion TTI and TTSI are potentially important outcomes in the era of modern anticancer therapies. The analysis of TTI and TTSI by competing risks approach will further add to the statistical methods that can be used to inform on the impact of cancer therapies on patients’ HRQOL.

Published
2019

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