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Algorithmic predictions are used in insurance to assess the risk exposure of potential customers. This article examines the impact of digital tools on the field of motor insurance, where telematics devices produce data about policyholders’ driving styles. The individual’s resulting behavioural score is combined with their actuarial score to determine the price of the policy or additional incentives. Current experimentation is moving in the direction of proactivity: instead of waiting for a claim to arise, insurance companies engage in coaching and other interventions to mitigate risk. The article explores the potential consequences of these practices on the social function of insurance, which makes risks bearable by socialising them over a pool of insured individuals. The introduction of behavioural variables and the corresponding idea of fairness could instead isolate individuals in their exposure to risk and affect their attitude towards future initiatives.

We study how the spread of the Lost Cause narrative—a revisionist and racist retelling of the US Civil War—shifted opinions and behaviors toward national reunification and racial discrimination against African Americans. Looking at screenings of The Birth of a Nation, a blockbuster movie that greatly popularized the Lost Cause after 1915, we find that the film shifted the public discourse toward a more patriotic and less divisive language, increased military enlistment, and fostered cultural convergence between former enemies. We document how the racist content of the narrative connects to reconciliation through a “common-enemy” type of argument. (JEL J15, L82, N31, N32, N41, Z13)

In this essay the editors-in-chief reflect on recent development of the journal and introduce the Symposium on Revising. We at Sociologica do not aim to be a major journal of sociology, but we do aspire to be a leading journal. Here we briefly gesture to four areas in which we aspire to leadership. These include: identifying vital topics for sociological debate; offering an alternative editorial model where the review process is not regarded as gate keeping; promoting greater diversity of formats for presenting sociological ideas beyond the one-size-fits-all model of Introduction – Theory – Data & Methods – Findings – Discussion – Conclusion; and presenting critical reflections on the practice of sociology., Sociologica, Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022)

How can sociologists observe a war "in the making"? In issuing an "instant call for papers," the editors of Sociologica suggest three lines of research: the semantics and the symbolic representation of war (of any war, but especially of this war); how political, military, economic, and social options and alternatives enter and exit the realm of the possible in connection with shifts in war semantics; how our understanding of "the day after," that is of the future after the war is over, binds and even determines decisions in the present., Sociologica, Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022)

Helga Nowotny, Professor emerita of Science and Technology Studies at ETH Zurich, is a leading scholar in the social studies of science and technology. In her extensive publications she dealt, among other topics, with social and individual structuring of time, technological innovation, uncertainty, social effects of AI, and the interaction between biological life and social life. Always intensely engaged in research policy, Nowotny is one of the founding members of the European Research Council and was its President from 2010 to 2013. In this conversation with Elena Esposito, she talks about her scientific biography, the role of technologies in the experience of time, and the relationship between STS and sociology of science. Drawing on her experience in the organization and funding of science at EU level, she also reflects on the relationship between research and science policy and on the ongoing transformations in the way of doing research and in gender issues., Sociologica, Vol. 16 No. 2 (2022)

The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention – the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic – in Africa. To identify the effect, we combine exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social violence and unrest, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal the largest potential gains in countries with intermediate HIV prevalence where disease control has been given relatively low priority.

Dealing with opaque algorithms, the frequent overlap between transparency and explainability produces seemingly unsolvable dilemmas, as the much-discussed trade-off between model performance and model transparency. Referring to Niklas Luhmann's notion of communication, the paper argues that explainability does not necessarily require transparency and proposes an alternative approach. Explanations as communicative processes do not imply any disclosure of thoughts or neural processes, but only reformulations that provide the partners with additional elements and enable them to understand (from their perspective) what has been done and why. Recent computational approaches aiming at post-hoc explainability reproduce what happens in communication, producing explanations of the working of algorithms that can be different from the processes of the algorithms., Sociologica, Vol. 16 No. 3 (2022)

This short introduction presents the symposium ‘Explaining Machines’. It locates the debate about Explainable AI in the history of the reflection about AI and outlines the issues discussed in the contributions., Sociologica, Vol. 16 No. 3 (2022)

Was wusste Luhmann in den sechziger Jahren des zwanzigsten Jahrhunderts von der Digitalisierung und von Algorithmen? Das mag wie eine rhetorische Frage klingen, so meine ich es aber nicht. Davon wusste Luhmann schon erstaunlich viel, und ich möchte es hier aufgrund eines Texts aus dem Jahr 1966 zeigen, Recht und Automation in der öffentlichen Verwaltung. Ich werde dafür viele direkte Zitate aus Luhmanns Text verwenden, was für mich ziemlich ungewöhnlich ist, hoffe aber, dass die Qualität der Passagen zeigt, warum ich es tue.

This editorial note turns the attention of sociology to the immediate and pressing present of the COVID-19 pandemic with the aim of understanding the potentially long-term consequences of this extraordinary moment. We suggest to focus on important topics such as the meaning of social change related to COVID-19, the newly emerging social practices due to lockdown measures, the emotional and cognitive impact of the absence of important social rituals, and the political and social effects of enhanced surveillance in our societies. We offer Sociologica as an open forum to host contributions on these topics or on other research questions connected with the COVID-19 crisis.

Researchers are at the very heart of the EOSC: So what do researchers really need to do outstanding research, and produce high-impact research results? Moreover, how do they think could the EOSC support them in their research endeavors? Let’s see what sociologist Elena Esposito has to say.

Studi Urbinati, B - Scienze umane e sociali, V. 65 (1992)

By introducing us into core concepts of Niklas Luhmann's theory of social systems, Elena Esposito shows their relevance for contemporary social sciences and the study of unsettled times. Contending that society is made not by people but by what connects them - as Luhmann does with his concept of communication - creates a fertile ground for addressing societal challenges as diverse as the Corona pandemic or the algorithmic revolution. Esposito more broadly sees in systems theory a relevant contribution to critical theory and a genuine alternative to its Frankfurt School version, while extending its reach to further conceptual refinement and new empirical issues. Fueling such refinement is her analysis of time and the complex intertwinement between past, present and future - a core issue that runs throughout her work. Her current study on the future as a prediction caught between science and divination offers a fascinating empirical case for it, drawing a thought-provoking parallel between the way algorithmic predictions are constructed today and how divinatory predictions were constructed in ancient times.

The paper argues, referring to systems theory, that the problem of our functionally differentiated society is not lack of integration, but rather an excess of integration. When there are difficulties in one area of society, all others are forced to make serious adjustments. In dealing with threats that come from the environment, the opportunities for rationality in society lie in the maintenance and exploitation of differences, not in their elimination. This hypothesis is discussed dealing with integration on three levels: 1) the consequences of the emergency on the relationships between different fields (or functional subsystems) of society: systemic integration; 2) the effects of the pandemic on the conditions of inclusion and exclusion of individuals in society: social integration; 3) the spread of the emergency in all regions of the world and the consequences for globalization: geographical integration.

Non-transparent machine learning algorithms can be described as non-trivial machines that do not have to be understood, but controlled as communication partners. From the perspective of sociological systems theory, the normative component of control should be addressed with a critical attitude, observing what is normal as improbable.

Since the start of the EOSC initiative, the needs of potential stakeholders were put into focus. To understand what the research community requires to perform cutting-edge research, the EOSCSecretariat partner TU Wienlaunched an exploration series with e.g. members of the Marie Curie Alumni Association, ERC grant holders and Nobel Laureates in December 2019. Within this series 17 researchers from various domains like Engineering and Technical Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences and Humanities participated, identifiing visions, needs and requirements for future research environments.&nbsp

Ratings and rankings are criticized for being simplistic, obscurantist, inaccurate, and subjective, yet they are becoming an increasingly influential social form. We elaborate the criticisms of ratings and rankings in various fields but go on to argue that analysis should shift its target. The problem that ratings deal with is not observation of an independent world. Instead, the challenge they face is the circularity of second-order observation in which observations must take into account the observations of others. To this purpose they function well enough not because they mirror how things are but because they offer a highly visible reference point to which others are attentive and thereby provide an orientation to navigate uncertainty. The concluding section places the problem of ratings and rankings in a broader historical perspective, contrasting the ranked society to the society of rankings. Responding to uncertainty, ratings and rankings perpetuates rather than eliminates anxiety.

This editorial note turns the attention of sociology to the immediate and pressing present of the COVID-19 pandemic with the aim of understanding the potentially long-term consequences of this extraordinary moment. We suggest to focus on important topics such as the meaning of social change related to COVID-19, the newly emerging social practices due to lockdown measures, the emotional and cognitive impact of the absence of important social rituals, and the political and social effects of enhanced surveillance in our societies. We offer Sociologica as an open forum to host contributions on these topics or on other research questions connected with the COVID-19 crisis., Sociologica, Vol 14, No 1 (2020)

Additional file 4. Sample ranking to their relative levels of N-terminal PrPres epitopes of antibodies P4 and 12B2. Figure in histogram form to compare the ranking of goat study sample series from high to low N-terminal epitope in ISS-WB and Triplex-WB.

Additional file 6. Graphic comparison of the PrPres double and single triplet state in resp. CH1641 and scrapie/BSE. Figure showing difference in migration of PrPres bands in CH1641 scrapie samples, goat study sample UK-B2 and reference TSEs as obtained with mAbs Sha31 and SAF84 in Triplex-WB.

Additional file 2. Overview of the application of seven different biochemical analyses in goat and control samples. Table containing goat sample sets used in the specific type of analyses performed.

Additional file 5. Correlation between N-terminus data and molecular mass of the PrPres non-glycosylated band obtained by Triplex-WB. Figure in dotplot form showing the correspondence between total PrPres N-terminus level and molecular mass of non-glycosylated PrPres fraction.

Fashion seems to be opening to a trend towards ethnic and multicultural content, and even to a modest fashion based on the desire to avoid attracting attention. The paper discusses the possibility that fashion has a social impact, contrasting it with Simmel’s “abstractness:” the claim that fashion has no reason and cannot have a reason – and if it does, this is not the reason why we follow it. Fashion goes by and this is its real content, beyond the forms it takes over time. The open question is whether a modest fashion can still be modest, or whether it has to give up its nature in order to be fashionable – and whether this is a price that is worth paying., ZoneModa Journal, Vol 10, No 1S (2020): S.I. Be Cool! Aesthetic Imperatives and Social Practices

Additional file 3. ISS-WB of goat TSE brain samples from different geographical regions with antibodies P4 and SAF84. Figure of ISS-WB with mAbs P4 and SAF84 on the set of goat study samples.

An editorial introduction to a tribute to Alessandro Pizzorno., Sociologica, Vol 13, No 2 (2019)

The subject, currently so hot, of social memory, leads to the theme of social oblivion. The problem is that forgetting is a difficult and controversial issue. Trying to forget represents a paradox difficult to sneak away, since every effort to do so, inexorably confronts itself. However, for autological systems, colliding with themselves is a habitual phenomenon, which is why forgetting becomes a normal operation, even necessary for the functioning of social memory. The only condition for oblivion to operate, avoiding overloading the memory, is that this operation remains unnoticed. The memory does not remember the past (that would not be useful and would only serve to overload the system) but rebuild it at every opportunity based on a future projected in a new way. Traditionally, it has been thought that the support of social memory lies in the psychic substratum, since social memory is found in the memories that are shared by all members of society, leaving aside only the strictly intimate memories of each one. Systems theory, on the contrary, maintains that the support of social memory cannot be found outside the system which remembers, but in the structures of it. From the invention of writing onward, social memory rests on the means of transmission of communications and, in our time, increasingly on the mass media.

The spread of Big Data involves a transformation in the use and meaning of data for sciences and for society as a whole, and in particular for social sciences and humanities. Referring to a theory of society and to performativity studies, the paper shows how the problem of assessing the impact of infrastructures in different areas of society is changing, and specifically how the forms and methods of prediction are changing. Assessment tends to be understood as a learning tool.

The debate about ecology, as we understand it here, has a specific history that separates it from the rather organicist discourse concerning the relationship of living beings with their environments (since the second half of the nineteenth century). Ecology deals with the environment, but here we look to a generalization and an abstraction of the concept that have been emerging more recently (since the fifties). We speak of general ecology. And we look for a sharper problematization of the idea of environment—not as a “given,” to which an organism or system must adapt, but as a multifaceted and flexible reference, which changes with the way it is observed and with the perspective of the observer.

The chapter analyses the way in which structured finance manages and controls the openness of the future as a source of profit. Financial modelling relies on a specific form of fiction, based on the careful construction of a present image of the future and its uncertainty—expressed by the evaluation of implied volatility. The problem with this approach is that it fails to take account of the reflexive way in which the fictitious future it constructs affects the (not-yet-existing) future reality. This chapter highlights the dual nature of the future as intersection and combination of both the present future and the future present. It concludes that structured-financed models—despite their attempt to control risk by making calculations in the present about the future and about current market expectations of the future—may, in times of turbulence, increase the indeterminacy and unpredictability of future reality.

La pianificazione non aiuta a realizzare il futuro che si pianifica. Colloquio con Elena Esposito e Nora Schultz

realtà del futuro e realtà futura

Non ci sono immagini realistiche

Die Idee des Neuen hat eine grundlegende Zweideutigkeit, die den Begriff faszinierend und geheimnisvoll macht: Um anerkannt und gewürdigt zu werden, muss das Neue einige vertraute (alte) Seiten haben. Das Neue ersetzt das Alte, bewahrt es aber zugleich. Deshalb ist Neuheit immer ambivalent und flexibel, und ihre positive bzw. negative Bewertung ändert sich mit der Zeit und mit dem Beobachter. Die heutige Tendenz ist eindeutig, das Neue über das Alte zu bevorzugen, aber das war nicht immer den Fall. In alten Zeiten und in allen vormodernen Gesellschaften war das Neue gefürchtet und verachtet. In der modernen Gesellschaft, im Gegenteil, wird das Merkmal der Neuheit fast die Voraussetzung für die Wertschätzung alles Anderem. Diese Haltung hat sich als sehr viel offener auf die Komplexität und Varietät der heutigen Welt gezeigt, hat aber einen paradoxen Fundament: Wenn Neuheit verlangt und Veränderung immer erwartet wird, ist diese Haltung nicht mehr neu und das Streben nach Neuheit vernichtet sich selbst . Die zentrale Frage ist der Bezug auf die Zukunft. Wenn Die Zukunft wirklich künftig ist (wie das Neue, wenn es wirklich neu ist), kann sie nämlich weder kontrolliert noch vorhergesagt werden. Aber gerade diese Unmöglichkeit kann zu einer Ressource werden: Man kann die Zeit benutzen, um Möglichkeiten zu schaffen. Dieser Betrag zeigt, wie Pläne nicht als Zukunftsvorhersagen sondern als Interventionen auf die unkontrollierbare Zukunft verstanden werden können. Das erfordert jedoch, dass man lernt, Überraschungen zu erwarten und sie zu nutzen, um Möglichkeiten zu produzieren.

Die Mode, wie wir sie kennen – als ein sehr komplexes und ziemlich geheimnisvolles Phänomen – hat es nicht immer gegeben. Sie hat sich erst im 17./18. Jahrhundert verbreitet. Worum geht es? Natürlich hat es immer ein Interesse für Kleidung und die Art der Darstellung gegeben; trotzdem ist die Verbreitung der Mode im 17. Jahrhundert als absoluter und unkontrollierbarer Wahnsinn betrachtet worden, als Zeichen einer neuen höchst gefährlichen menschlichen Leichtigkeit und Beschränktheit. Die Entdeckung der Zeitabhängigkeit der Bezüge, die im Moment nicht trotz ihrer Kontingenz gelten, sondern gerade deswegen, war ein echter Skandal der Mode im 17. Jahrhundert und machte aus ihr ein typisch modernes Phänomen – indem nunmehr nur noch kontingente Bezüge interessant sind. Der erste Skandal der Mode war das Interesse für das Vorläufige und für die Unbeständigkeit als solche, nicht mehr betrachtet als eine Art notwendigen Übels.

Futuro Aperto

Following Keynes and Shackle, money can be defined by its temporal nature, as a tool for managing and using the uncertainty of the future – as a problem and as an opportunity. Finance, which relies on money, can be described as a large apparatus that relates to the future while operating in the present, or the present intervention in the construction and structuring of the future. The financial crisis, in this context, can be brought into connection with an inadequate management of the future in terms of risks and its actual conceptualisation. The reference to time also allows one to interpret the approach and the effectiveness of public policies on finance This paper examines the measures of Quantitative Easing, describing it as “injection” of time into markets, in the hope of encouraging the use and construction of the future.

In den 1970er Jahren beteiligten sich zahlreiche französisch- und deutschsprachige Wissenschaftler an lebendigen und konstruktiven Diskussionen über die epistemologischen Folgen der Kybernetik. Die in diesem Heft zusammengestellten Texte geben ein Bild dieser Debatte wieder. Sie legen die Betonung auf die Schnittpunkte von Fragen und Problemen, die in den darauf folgenden Jahren zu Schwerpunkten der Forschung in den Sozialwissenschaften geworden und in die Theorie- und Begriffsarbeit der Geistes- und Kulturwissenschaften eingegangen sind. Welche Faktoren haben dazu geführt, dass die seinerzeit so produktive Zusammenarbeit schließlich fast vollständig in Vergessenheit geraten ist? Die Übersetzung von zentralen Beiträgen aus der damaligen Debatte soll dazu anregen, aus heutiger Sicht wieder an die früheren Diskussionen anzuschließen.

"I piani non aiutano a realizzare il futuro previsto". Conversazione con Nora Schultz