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In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, as submitted to The Multi-disciplinary Conference on Reinforcement Learning and Decision Making

We present an approach to data fusion that combines the interpretability of structured probabilistic graphical models with the flexibility of neural networks. The proposed method, lightweight data fusion (LDF), emphasizes posterior analysis over latent variables using two types of information: primary data, which are well-characterized but with limited availability, and auxiliary data, readily available but lacking a well-characterized statistical relationship to the latent quantity of interest. The lack of a forward model for the auxiliary data precludes the use of standard data fusion approaches, while the inability to acquire latent variable observations severely limits direct application of most supervised learning methods. LDF addresses these issues by utilizing neural networks as conjugate mappings of the auxiliary data: nonlinear transformations into sufficient statistics with respect to the latent variables. This facilitates efficient inference by preserving the conjugacy properties of the primary data and leads to compact representations of the latent variable posterior distributions. We demonstrate the LDF methodology on two challenging inference problems: (1) learning electrification rates in Rwanda from satellite imagery, high-level grid infrastructure, and other sources; and (2) inferring county-level homicide rates in the USA by integrating socio-economic data using a mixture model of multiple conjugate mappings.

Robust data association is critical for analysis of long-term motion trajectories in complex scenes. In its absence, trajectory precision suffers due to periods of kinematic ambiguity degrading the quality of follow-on analysis. Common optimization-based approaches often neglect uncertainty quantification arising from these events. Consequently, we propose the Joint Posterior Tracker (JPT), a Bayesian multi-object tracking algorithm that robustly reasons over the posterior of associations and trajectories. Novel, permutation-based proposals are crafted for exploration of posterior modes that correspond to plausible association hypotheses. JPT exhibits more accurate uncertainty representation of data associations with superior performance on standard metrics when compared to existing baselines. We also show the utility of JPT applied to automatic scheduling of user-in-the-loop annotations for improved trajectory quality.

Modern vehicles are equipped with increasingly complex sensors. These sensors generate large volumes of data that provide opportunities for modeling and analysis. Here, we are interested in exploiting this data to learn aspects of behaviors and the road network associated with individual drivers. Our dataset is collected on a standard vehicle used to commute to work and for personal trips. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) trained on the GPS position and orientation data is utilized to compress the large amount of position information into a small amount of road segment states. Each state has a set of observations, i.e. car signals, associated with it that are quantized and modeled as draws from a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP). The inference for the topic distributions is carried out using HDP split-merge sampling algorithm. The topic distributions over joint quantized car signals characterize the driving situation in the respective road state. In a novel manner, we demonstrate how the sparsity of the personal road network of a driver in conjunction with a hierarchical topic model allows data driven predictions about destinations as well as likely road conditions.

For large scale on-line inference problems the update strategy is critical for performance. We derive an adaptive scan Gibbs sampler that optimizes the update frequency by selecting an optimum mini-batch size. We demonstrate performance of our adaptive batch-size Gibbs sampler by comparing it against the collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian Lasso, Dirichlet Process Mixture Models (DPMM) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) graphical models.

Ego-centric data streams provide a unique opportunity to reason about joint behavior by pooling data across individuals. This is especially evident in urban environments teeming with human activities, but which suffer from incomplete and noisy data. Collaborative human activities exhibit common spatial, temporal, and visual characteristics facilitating inference across individuals from multiple sensory modalities as we explore in this paper from the perspective of meetings. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric model that enables us to efficiently pool video and GPS data towards collaborative activities analysis from multiple individuals. We demonstrate the utility of this model for inference tasks such as activity detection, classification, and summarization. We further demonstrate how spatio-temporal structure embedded in our model enables better understanding of partial and noisy observations such as localization and face detections based on social interactions. We show results on both synthetic experiments and a new dataset of egocentric video and noisy GPS data from multiple individuals.

Data augmentation is a key element in training high-dimensional models. In this approach, one synthesizes new observations by applying pre-specified transformations to the original training data; e.g.~new images are formed by rotating old ones. Current augmentation schemes, however, rely on manual specification of the applied transformations, making data augmentation an implicit form of feature engineering. With an eye towards true end-to-end learning, we suggest learning the applied transformations on a per-class basis. Particularly, we align image pairs within each class under the assumption that the spatial transformation between images belongs to a large class of diffeomorphisms. We then learn a class-specific probabilistic generative models of the transformations in a Riemannian submanifold of the Lie group of diffeomorphisms. We demonstrate significant performance improvements in training deep neural nets over manually-specified augmentation schemes. Our code and augmented datasets are available online.

This paper presents a methodology for creating streaming, distributed inference algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models. In the proposed framework, processing nodes receive a sequence of data minibatches, compute a variational posterior for each, and make asynchronous streaming updates to a central model. In contrast to previous algorithms, the proposed framework is truly streaming, distributed, asynchronous, learning-rate-free, and truncation-free. The key challenge in developing the framework, arising from the fact that BNP models do not impose an inherent ordering on their components, is finding the correspondence between minibatch and central BNP posterior components before performing each update. To address this, the paper develops a combinatorial optimization problem over component correspondences, and provides an efficient solution technique. The paper concludes with an application of the methodology to the DP mixture model, with experimental results demonstrating its practical scalability and performance., Comment: This paper was presented at NIPS 2015. Please use the following BibTeX citation: @inproceedings{Campbell15_NIPS, Author = {Trevor Campbell and Julian Straub and John W. {Fisher III} and Jonathan P. How}, Title = {Streaming, Distributed Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametrics}, Booktitle = {Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS)}, Year = {2015}}

Sparse signal representations and approximations from overcomplete dictionaries have become an invaluable tool recently. In this paper, we develop a new, heuristic, graph-structured, sparse signal representation algorithm for overcomplete dictionaries that can be decomposed into subdictionaries and whose dictionary elements can be arranged in a hierarchy. Around this algorithm, we construct a methodology for advanced image formation in wide-angle synthetic aperture radar (SAR), defining an approach for joint anisotropy characterization and image formation. Additionally, we develop a coordinate descent method for jointly optimizing a parameterized dictionary and recovering a sparse representation using that dictionary. The motivation is to characterize a phenomenon in wide-angle SAR that has not been given much attention before: migratory scattering centers, i.e. scatterers whose apparent spatial location depends on aspect angle. Finally, we address the topic of recovering solutions that are sparse in more than one objective domain by introducing a suitable sparsifying cost function. We encode geometric objectives into SAR image formation through sparsity in two domains, including the normal parameter space of the Hough transform.

ISBN:978-3-03837-005-5

In continuously operating robotic systems, efficient representation of the previously seen camera feed is crucial. Using a highly efficient compression coreset method, we formulate a new method for hierarchical retrieval of frames from large video streams collected online by a moving robot. We demonstrate how to utilize the resulting structure for efficient loop-closure by a novel sampling approach that is adaptive to the structure of the video. The same structure also allows us to create a highly-effective search tool for large-scale videos, which we demonstrate in this paper. We show the efficiency of proposed approaches for retrieval and loop closure on standard datasets, and on a large-scale video from a mobile camera., Hon Hai/Foxconn International Holdings Ltd., Lincoln Laboratory, Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology Center (Future Urban Mobility Project), United States. Office of Naval Research. Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (Grant N00014-09-1-1051)