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Circulating concentrations of metabolites (collectively called kynurenines) in the kynurenine pathway of tryptophan metabolism increase during inflammation, particularly in response to interferon-gamma (IFN-γ). Neopterin and the kynurenine/tryptophan ratio (KTR) are IFN-γ induced inflammatory markers, and together with C-reactive protein (CRP) and kynurenines they are associated with various diseases, but comprehensive data on the strength of associations of inflammatory markers with circulating concentrations of kynurenines are lacking. We measured circulating concentrations of neopterin, CRP, tryptophan and seven kynurenines in 5314 controls from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The associations of neopterin, KTR and CRP with kynurenines were investigated using regression models. In mixed models, one standard deviation (SD) higher KTR was associated with a 0.46 SD higher quinolinic acid (QA), and 0.31 SD higher 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK). One SD higher neopterin was associated with 0.48, 0.44, 0.36 and 0.28 SD higher KTR, QA, kynurenine and HK, respectively. KTR and neopterin respectively explained 24.1% and 16.7% of the variation in QA, and 11.4% and 7.5% of HK. CRP was only weakly associated with kynurenines in regression models. In summary, QA was the metabolite that was most strongly associated with the inflammatory markers. In general, the inflammatory markers were most strongly related to metabolites located along the tryptophan–NAD axis, which may support suggestions of increased production of NAD from tryptophan during inflammation.

Background Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer. Methods Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium. Results In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I. Conclusions These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease.

Reproducibility and replicability of research findings are central to the scientific integrity of epidemiology. In addition, many research questions require combiningdata from multiple sources to achieve adequate statistical power. However, barriers related to confidentiality, costs, and incentives often limit the extent and speed of sharing resources, both data and code. Epidemiological practices that follow FAIR principles can address these barriers by making resources (F)indable with the necessary metadata , (A)ccessible to authorized users and (I)nteroperable with other data, to optimize the (R)e-use of resources with appropriate credit to its creators. We provide an overview of these principles and describe approaches for implementation in epidemiology. Increasing degrees of FAIRness can be achieved by moving data and code from on-site locations to the Cloud, using machine-readable and non-proprietary files, and developing open-source code. Adoption of these practices will improve daily work and collaborative analyses, and facilitate compliance with data sharing policies from funders and scientific journals. Achieving a high degree of FAIRness will require funding, training, organizational support, recognition, and incentives for sharing resources. But these costs are amply outweighed by the benefits of making research more reproducible, impactful, and equitable by facilitating the re-use of precious research resources by the scientific community.

BackgroundIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) arises from cholangiocytes in the intrahepatic bile duct and is the second most common type of liver cancer. Cholangiocytes express both oestrogen receptor-α and -β, and oestrogens positively modulate cholangiocyte proliferation. Studies in women and men have reported higher circulating oestradiol is associated with increased ICC risk, further supporting a hormonal aetiology. However, no observational studies have examined the associations between exogenous hormone use and reproductive factors, as proxies of endogenous hormone levels, and risk of ICC.MethodsWe harmonised data from 1,107,498 women who enroled in 12 North American-based cohort studies (in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, LCPP) and the UK Biobank between 1980-1998 and 2006-2010, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence internals (CI). Then, meta-analytic techniques were used to combine the estimates from theLCPP (n = 180 cases) and the UK Biobank (n = 57 cases).ResultsHysterectomy was associated with a doubling of ICC risk (HR = 1.98,95%CI:1.27-3.09), compared to women aged 50-54 at natural menopause. Long-term oral contraceptive use (9+ years) was associated with a 62% increased ICC risk (HR = 1.62,95%CI:1.03-2.55). There was no association between ICC risk and other exogenous hormone use or reproductive factors.ConclusionsThis study suggests that hysterectomy and long-term oral contraceptive use may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Background: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) arises from cholangiocytes in the intrahepatic bile duct and is the second most common type of liver cancer. Cholangiocytes express both estrogen receptor-α and -β, and estrogens positively modulate cholangiocyte proliferation. Studies in women and men have reported higher circulating estradiol is associated with increased ICC risk, further supporting a hormonal etiology. However, no observational studies have examined the associations between exogenous hormone use and reproductive factors, as proxies of endogenous hormone levels, and risk of ICC. Methods: We harmonized data from 1,107,498 women who enrolled in 12 North American-based cohort studies (in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, LCPP) and the UK Biobank between 1980-1998 and 2006-2010, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence internals (CI). Then, meta-analytic techniques were used to combine the estimates from LCPP (n=180 cases) and the UK Biobank (n=57 cases). Results: Hysterectomy was associated with a doubling of ICC risk (HR=1.98,95%CI:1.27–3.09), compared to women aged 50-54 at natural menopause. Long-term oral contraceptive use (9+ years) was associated with a 62% increased ICC risk (HR=1.62,95%CI:1.03–2.55). There was no association between ICC risk and other exogenous hormone use or reproductive factors. Conclusions: This study suggests that hysterectomy and long-term oral contraceptive use may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Background: Circulating concentrations of biomarkers that are related to vitamin status vary by factors such as diet, fortification, and supplement use. Published biomarker concentrations have also been influenced by the variation across laboratories, which complicates a comparison of results from different studies. Objective: We robustly and comprehensively assessed differences in biomarkers that are related to vitamin status across geographic regions. Design: The trial was a cross-sectional study in which we investigated 38 biomarkers that are related to vitamin status and one-carbon and tryptophan metabolism in serum and plasma from 5314 healthy control subjects representing 20 cohorts recruited from the United States, Nordic countries, Asia, and Australia, participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All samples were analyzed in a centralized laboratory. Results: Circulating concentrations of riboflavin, pyridoxal 5′-phosphate, folate, vitamin B-12, all-trans retinol, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and α-tocopherol as well as combined vitamin scores that were based on these nutrients showed that the general B-vitamin concentration was highest in the United States and that the B vitamins and lipid soluble vitamins were low in Asians. Conversely, circulating concentrations of metabolites that are inversely related to B vitamins involved in the one-carbon and kynurenine pathways were high in Asians. The high B-vitamin concentration in the United States appears to be driven mainly by multivitamin-supplement users. Conclusions: The observed differences likely reflect the variation in intake of vitamins and, in particular, the widespread multivitamin-supplement use in the United States. The results provide valuable information about the differences in biomarker concentrations in populations across continents.

BACKGROUND: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Limited data suggest that lung function decline normalizes with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest ongoing risk. We hypothesized that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease. METHODS: Longitudinal spirometry measures and self-reported smoking behaviors were harmonized across six US population-based cohorts. FEV1 decline of sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers using mixed models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV1 decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (pack-years) and current (cigarettes-per-day) cigarette consumption. FINDINGS: 25,352 participants (ages 17—93 years) completed 70,228 valid spirometry exams. Over median 7-year follow-up (interquartile range, 3—20), FEV1 decline at the median age (57 years) was 31·01, 34·97, and 39·92 mL/year in sustained never-smokers, former smokers, and current smokers, respectively. With adjustment, former smokers demonstrated 1·82 mL/year accelerated FEV1 decline (95% CI, 1·24—2·40) compared to never-smokers, which was 20% of the effect estimate for current smokers. Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV1 decline was observed for decades after smoking cessation and in smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (

INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, an estimated 189 million adults smoke tobacco “occasionally” but not every day. Yet, few studies have examined the health risks of non-daily smoking. METHODS: Data from the 1991, 1992, and 1995 US National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS), a nationally representative sample of 70,913 US adults (18–95 years) were pooled. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death through 2011 were estimated from Cox proportional hazards regression using age as the underlying time metric and stratified by 5-year birth cohorts in 2017. RESULTS: Non-daily smokers reported smoking a median of 15 days and 50 cigarettes per month in contrast to daily smokers who smoked a median of 600 cigarettes per month. Compared with never smokers, lifelong non-daily smokers who had never smoked daily had a 72% higher mortality risk (95%CI, 1.36–2.18): higher risks were observed for cancer, heart disease, and respiratory disease mortalities. Higher mortality risks were observed among lifelong non-daily smokers who reported 11–30 (HR, 1.34, 95%CI, 0.81–2.20), 31–60 (HR, 2.02, 95%CI, 1.17–3.29), and >60 cigarettes per month (HR, 1.74, 95%CI, 1.12–2.72) than never smokers. Median life-expectancy was about five years shorter for lifelong non-daily smokers than never smokers. As expected, daily smokers had even higher mortality risks (HR, 2.50, 95%CI, 2.35–2.66) and shorter survival (ten years). CONCLUSIONS: While the mortality risks of non-daily smokers are lower than daily smokers, they are still substantial. Policies should be specifically directed at this growing group of smokers.

The role of alcoholic beverages in the etiology of gastric cancer is unclear. Recent summaries showed a positive association between higher alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk, but the magnitude of association is small, there is moderate heterogeneity among studies, and most cases were from Asian populations. We prospectively investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) in 490,605 adults, aged 50-71 years at baseline who participated in the NIH-AARP diet and health study. Alcohol consumption in the past year was assessed at baseline by questionnaire and defined as total grams of ethanol intake per day or as a categorical variable: nondrinker, up to or including one drink per day, one to three drinks per day and greater than three drinks per day. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between alcohol intake and risk of gastric adenocarcinomas. Through 2011, 662 incident cases of GCA and 713 of GNCA occurred. We found no association between higher alcohol consumption and GCA or GNCA, when examined as total alcoholic beverage intake or individual beverage types of beer, wine and liquor. Furthermore, we observed no association by stratum of sex, ethnic group, educational level or smoking status. We did, however, observe lower risk of GNCA among participants who drank up to one drink per day (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97) compared to nondrinkers. In conclusion, alcohol consumption was not associated with increased risk of GCA or GNCA in this large U.S. cohort.

While vitamin D has been associated with improved overall cancer survival in some investigations, few have prospectively evaluated organ-specific survival. We examined the accepted biomarker of vitamin D status, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], and cancer survival in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. Of 4616 cancer cases with measured serum 25(OH)D, 2884 died of their cancer during 28 years of follow-up and 1732 survived or died of other causes. Proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between pre-diagnostic 25(OH)D and overall and site-specific survival. Serum 25(OH)D was significantly lower among cases who subsequently died from their malignancy compared with those who did not (medians 34.7 vs. 36.5 nmol/L, respectively; p = 0.01). Higher 25(OH)D was associated with lower overall cancer mortality (HR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.85 for highest vs. lowest quintile, p-trend 0.0001). Higher 25(OH)D was related to lower mortality from the following site-specific malignancies: prostate (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.55-1.01, p-trend = 0.005), kidney (HR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.35-0.98, p-trend = 0.28), and melanoma (HR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.20-0.78, p-trend = 0.01), but increased mortality from lung cancer (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.02-1.61, p-trend = 0.19). Improved survival was also suggested for head and neck, gastric, pancreatic, and liver cancers, though not statistically significantly, and case numbers for the latter two organ sites were small. Higher 25(OH)D status years prior to diagnosis was related to improved survival for overall and some site-specific cancers, associations that should be examined in other prospective populations that include women and other racial-ethnic groups.

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone precursor that is associated with a range of human traits and diseases. Previous GWAS of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations have identified four genome-wide significant loci (GC, NADSYN1/DHCR7, CYP2R1, CYP24A1). In this study, we expand the previous SUNLIGHT Consortium GWAS discovery sample size from 16,125 to 79,366 (all European descent). This larger GWAS yields two additional loci harboring genome-wide significant variants (P = 4.7×10-9 at rs8018720 in SEC23A, and P = 1.9×10-14 at rs10745742 in AMDHD1). The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%, with statistically significant loci explaining 38% of this total. Further investigation identifies signal enrichment in immune and hematopoietic tissues, and clustering with autoimmune diseases in cell-type-specific analysis. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants and gene-gene interactions in the heritability of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone precursor that is associated with a range of human traits and diseases. Previous GWAS of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations have identified four genome-wide significant loci (GC, NADSYN1/DHCR7, CYP2R1, CYP24A1). In this study, we expand the previous SUNLIGHT Consortium GWAS discovery sample size from 16,125 to 79,366 (all European descent). This larger GWAS yields two additional loci harboring genome-wide significant variants (P = 4.7×10-9 at rs8018720 in SEC23A, and P = 1.9×10-14 at rs10745742 in AMDHD1). The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%, with statistically significant loci explaining 38% of this total. Further investigation identifies signal enrichment in immune and hematopoietic tissues, and clustering with autoimmune diseases in cell-type-specific analysis. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants and gene-gene interactions in the heritability of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.

Vitamin D is an essential fat soluble vitamin and steroid pro-hormone that plays an important role in musculoskeletal health. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to autoimmune1,2 and infectious disease3, cardiovascular disease4, cancer5 and neurodegenerative conditions6. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a primary circulating form of vitamin D and a measure that best reflects vitamin D stores, is influenced by many factors including sun exposure, age, body mass index7, dietary intake of certain foods such as fortified dairy products and oily fish, supplements, and genetic factors8. The concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D has been reported to be highly heritable, with heritability estimates of 50%-80% from classical twin studies9,10.A genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D11 in 4,501 participants of European ancestry and replication in 2,221 samples identified variants in three loci (group component (GC), 7-dehydrochlesterol reductase (NADSYN1/DHCR7), and 25-hydroxylase (CYP2R1)). A larger GWAS conducted by the SUNLIGHT consortium in 16,125 European ancestry individuals, with a replication sample of 17,871, replicated these three loci and discovered one additional locus (CYP24A1)8. However, despite these loci being in or near genes encoding proteins involved in vitamin D synthesis, the associated variants collectively explain only a small fraction of the variance in 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (~5%)8,11,12. Therefore, to extend our previous findings and better understand the genetic architecture underlying serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, as well as test for interactions between dietary vitamin D intake and genetic factors, we conducted a large-scale GWAS meta-analysis on this important vitamin. Our GWAS with 79,366 discovery samples and 40,562 replication samples replicate four previous loci and identify two new genetic loci for serum levels of 25-hydrovxyvitamin D. We further find evidence for a shared genetic basis between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and autoimmune diseases. Our analyses suggest a relatively modest SNP-heritability rate of 25-hydroxyvitamin D when considering only common variants. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants. The novel genetic instruments identified by our results could be used in future Mendelian Randomization analyses of the association between vitamin D and complex traits

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone precursor that is associated with a range of human traits and diseases. Previous GWAS of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations have identified four genome-wide significant loci (GC, NADSYN1/DHCR7, CYP2R1, CYP24A1). In this study, we expand the previous SUNLIGHT Consortium GWAS discovery sample size from 16,125 to 79,366 (all European descent). This larger GWAS yields two additional loci harboring genome-wide significant variants (P = 4.7×10−9 at rs8018720 in SEC23A, and P = 1.9×10−14 at rs10745742 in AMDHD1). The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%, with statistically significant loci explaining 38% of this total. Further investigation identifies signal enrichment in immune and hematopoietic tissues, and clustering with autoimmune diseases in cell-type-specific analysis. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants and gene–gene interactions in the heritability of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone precursor that is associated with a range of human traits and diseases. Previous GWAS of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations have identified four genome-wide significant loci (GC, NADSYN1/DHCR7, CYP2R1, CYP24A1). In this study, we expand the previous SUNLIGHT Consortium GWAS discovery sample size from 16,125 to 79,366 (all European descent). This larger GWAS yields two additional loci harboring genome-wide significant variants (P = 4.7×10-9 at rs8018720 in SEC23A, and P = 1.9×10-14 at rs10745742 in AMDHD1). The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%, with statistically significant loci explaining 38% of this total. Further investigation identifies signal enrichment in immune and hematopoietic tissues, and clustering with autoimmune diseases in cell-type-specific analysis. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants and gene-gene interactions in the heritability of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.

Background Experimental and clinical evidence implicates testosterone in the aetiology of prostate cancer. Variation across the normal range of circulating free testosterone concentrations may not lead to changes in prostate biology, unless circulating concentrations are low. This may also apply to prostate cancer risk, but this has not been investigated in an epidemiological setting. Objective To examine whether men with low concentrations of circulating free testosterone have a reduced risk of prostate cancer. Design, setting, and participants Analysis of individual participant data from 20 prospective studies including 6933 prostate cancer cases, diagnosed on average 6.8 yr after blood collection, and 12 088 controls in the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Odds ratios (ORs) of incident overall prostate cancer and subtypes by stage and grade, using conditional logistic regression, based on study-specific tenths of calculated free testosterone concentration. Results and limitations Men in the lowest tenth of free testosterone concentration had a lower risk of overall prostate cancer (OR = 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69–0.86; p < 0.001) compared with men with higher concentrations (2nd–10th tenths of the distribution). Heterogeneity was present by tumour grade (phet = 0.01), with a lower risk of low-grade disease (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67–0.88) and a nonsignificantly higher risk of high-grade disease (OR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.95–2.57). There was no evidence of heterogeneity by tumour stage. The observational design is a limitation. Conclusions Men with low circulating free testosterone may have a lower risk of overall prostate cancer; this may be due to a direct biological effect, or detection bias. Further research is needed to explore the apparent differential association by tumour grade. Patient summary In this study, we looked at circulating testosterone levels and risk of developing prostate cancer, finding that men with low testosterone had a lower risk of prostate cancer. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Nature Communications 9(1), 3184 (2018). doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05537-2

Serum pepsinogen 1 (SPG1) and anti-Helicobacter pylori serology have been used for gastric risk stratification in Asia.To assess utility of these markers in a Western population.SPG1 measurements were available for 21 895 Finnish male smokers in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders to estimate gastric cancer hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for low SPG1 (25 μg/L). In a subset (n = 3555) with anti-H. pylori serology, these markers jointly defined the following: Group A (H. pylori[-], SPG1[normal]; reference group), Group B (H. pylori[+], SPG1[normal]), Group C (H. pylori[+], SPG1[low]) and Group D (H. pylori[-], SPG1[low]). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CI were calculated using multivariate logistic regression.There were 329 gastric cancers diagnosed an average of 13.9 years after baseline. Pre-diagnostic low SPG1 was significantly associated with increased gastric cancer risk (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.99-3.61). Among subjects with both SPG1 and H. pylori serology, groups B, C and D had increased gastric cancer ORs (95% CI) of 1.79 (1.21-2.64), 3.85 (2.36-6.28) and 6.35 (2.20-18.34), respectively. CagA seropositives had significantly higher ORs than CagA seronegatives within group B (PLow SPG1 was associated with increased gastric cancer risk in our large Finnish cohort. A single measurement of SPG1 along with H. pylori whole cell and CagA serology provides potentially useful prediction of gastric cancer risk.

An increasing proportion of US smokers smoke ≤10 cigarettes per day (CPD) or do not smoke every day, yet the health effects of low-intensity smoking are poorly understood. We identified lifelong smokers of1 or 1-10 CPD and evaluated risk of incident cancer among 238,525 cancer-free adults, aged 59-82, in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. A questionnaire administered in 2004-2005 assessed CPD during nine age-periods (15 to ≥70). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression with age as the underlying time metric. Of the 18,233 current smokers, (7.6%), 137 and 1,243 reported consistently smoking1 CPD and 1-10 CPD, respectively. Relative to never smokers, current smokers who reported consistently smoking 1-10 CPD over their lifetime were 2.34 (95% CI = 1.86-2.93) times more likely to develop smoking-related cancer. Current lifetime smokers of1 CPD were 1.89 (95% CI = 0.90-3.96) times more likely to develop tobacco-related cancer, although the association did not reach statistical significance. Associations were observed for lifelong smoking of ≤10 CPD with lung cancer (HR = 9.65, 95% CI = 6.93-13.43); bladder cancer (HR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.22-4.05); and pancreatic cancer (HR = 2.03, 95%CI: 1.05-3.95). Among lifelong ≤10 CPD smokers, former smokers had lower risks of smoking-related cancer with longer time since cessation and longer smoking duration. Lifelong1 and 1-10 CPD smokers are at increased risk of incident cancer relative to never smokers and would benefit from cessation, providing further evidence that even low-levels of cigarette smoking cause cancer.

Circulating vitamin B6 levels have been found to be inversely associated with lung cancer. Most studies have focused on the B6 form pyridoxal 5′-phosphate (PLP), a direct biomarker influenced by inflammation and other factors. Using a functional B6 marker allows further investigation of the potential role of vitamin B6 status in the pathogenesis of lung cancer. We prospectively evaluated the association of the functional marker of vitamin B6 status, the 3-hydroxykynurenine:xanthurenic acid (HK:XA) ratio, with risk of lung cancer in a nested case–control study consisting of 5,364 matched case–control pairs from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between HK:XA and lung cancer, and random effect models to combine results from different cohorts and regions. High levels of HK:XA, indicating impaired functional B6 status, were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, the odds ratio comparing the fourth and the first quartiles (OR4th vs. 1st) was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.10–1.41). Stratified analyses indicated that this association was primarily driven by cases diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. Notably, the risk associated with HK:XA was approximately 50% higher in groups with a high relative frequency of squamous cell carcinoma, i.e., men, former and current smokers. This risk of squamous cell carcinoma was present in both men and women regardless of smoking status.

Previous studies have found associations between one-carbon metabolism nutrients and risk of several cancers, but little is known regarding upper gastrointestinal tract (UGI) cancer. We analyzed prediagnostic serum concentrations of several one-carbon metabolism nutrients (vitamin B12, folate, vitamin B6, riboflavin and homocysteine) in a nested case-control study within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study of male smokers, which was undertaken in Finland between 1985 and 1988. We conducted a nested case-control study including 127 noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA), 41 esophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma and 60 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma incident cases identified within ATBC. Controls were matched to cases on age, date of serum collection and follow-up time. One-carbon nutrient concentrations were measured in fasting serum samples collected at baseline (up to 17 years prior to cancer diagnosis). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Lower prediagnostic vitamin B12 concentrations at baseline were associated with a 5.8-fold increased risk of NCGA (95% CI = 2.7-12.6 for lowest compared to highest quartile, p-trend0.001). This association remained in participants who developed cancer more than 10 years after blood collection, and after restricting the analysis to participants with clinically normal serum vitamin B12 (300 pmol/L). In contrast, pepsinogen I, a known serologic marker of gastric atrophy, was not associated with NCGA in this population. As vitamin B12 absorption requires intact gastric mucosa to produce acid and intrinsic factor, our findings suggest vitamin B12 as a possible serologic marker for the atrophic gastritis that precedes NCGA, one more strongly associated with subsequent NCGA than pepsinogen.

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified six risk loci for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We conducted a meta-analysis of two new scans of 5,198 cases and 7,331 controls together with four existing scans, totalling 10,784 cases and 20,406 controls of European ancestry. Twenty-four loci were tested in an additional 3,182 cases and 6,301 controls. We confirm the six known RCC risk loci and identify seven new loci at 1p32.3 (rs4381241, P=3.1 × 10-10), 3p22.1 (rs67311347, P=2.5 × 10-8), 3q26.2 (rs10936602, P=8.8 × 10-9), 8p21.3 (rs2241261, P=5.8 × 10-9), 10q24.33-q25.1 (rs11813268, P=3.9 × 10-8), 11q22.3 (rs74911261, P=2.1 × 10-10) and 14q24.2 (rs4903064, P=2.2 × 10-24). Expression quantitative trait analyses suggest plausible candidate genes at these regions that may contribute to RCC susceptibility.

ImportanceThe causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation.ObjectiveTo conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases.Data sourcesGenomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015.Study selectionGWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available.Data extraction and synthesisSummary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population.Main outcomes and measuresOdds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation.ResultsSummary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.05-0.15]).Conclusions and relevanceIt is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.

Obesity relatively late in adulthood has been consistently associated with increased risk of primary liver cancer. However, little is known about the role of early adult adiposity and evolution of adiposity across adulthood in hepatocarcinogenesis. We examined adult body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) in relation to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) in a large prospective cohort. Weight at ages 18, 35, 50 and at study baseline was retrospectively reported by 303,620 participants. BMI trajectories were identified using latent class trajectory modeling. Incidence of HCC and ICC was determined through 2011. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 372 HCC cases and 104 ICC cases occurred during follow-up. Being obese (BMI ≥ 30) at ages 18, 35, 50 and at baseline (mean age 62.3 years, range 50.3–71.5 years) was associated with an 86%–119% elevated risk of HCC. BMI trajectories that resulted in obesity were associated with ~80% higher HCC incidence. BMI at age 18, per 5 kg/m2, was associated with a 34% higher risk of ICC, but the association attenuated for BMI at older ages. In conclusion, our findings suggest that maintaining a healthy BMI throughout the lifetime may reduce liver cancer risk. Future studies with longitudinally collected weight information are warranted to further elucidate the role of life-course adiposity in liver cancer development.

IMPORTANCE The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation. OBJECTIVE To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases. DATA SOURCES Genomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015. STUDY SELECTION GWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation. RESULTS Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [ 95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [ 95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [ 95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [ 95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [ 95% CI, 0.05-0.15]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified six risk loci for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We conducted a meta-analysis of two new scans of 5,198 cases and 7,331 controls together with four existing scans, totalling 10,784 cases and 20,406 controls of European ancestry. Twenty-four loci were tested in an additional 3,182 cases and 6,301 controls. We confirm the six known RCC risk loci and identify seven new loci at 1p32.3 (rs4381241, P=3.1 × 10−10), 3p22.1 (rs67311347, P=2.5 × 10−8), 3q26.2 (rs10936602, P=8.8 × 10−9), 8p21.3 (rs2241261, P=5.8 × 10−9), 10q24.33-q25.1 (rs11813268, P=3.9 × 10−8), 11q22.3 (rs74911261, P=2.1 × 10−10) and 14q24.2 (rs4903064, P=2.2 × 10−24). Expression quantitative trait analyses suggest plausible candidate genes at these regions that may contribute to RCC susceptibility.

The nonessential amino acid cysteine is known to be involved in many antioxidant and anticarcinogenic pathways. Cysteinylglycine is a pro-oxidant metabolite of glutathione and a precursor of cysteine.To examine the relation between serum cysteine and cysteinylglycine and risk of gastric adenocarcinomas, esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, and head and neck squamous cell carcinomas, we conducted a nested case-control study within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention study of male Finnish smokers aged 50-69 y at baseline.In total, 170 gastric adenocarcinomas, 68 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, and 270 head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (identified from the Finnish Cancer Registry) were matched one-to-one with cancer-free control subjects on age and the date of serum collection. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs with the use of a multivariate-adjusted conditional logistic regression.Cysteine had a U-shaped association with gastric adenocarcinomas; a model that included a linear and a squared term had a significant global P-test (P = 0.036). Serum cysteinylglycine was inversely associated with adenocarcinomas of the gastric cardia (OR for above the median compared with below the median: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.70; n = 38 cases) but not for other sites. Both cysteine and cysteinylglycine were not associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma or head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.We observed associations between serum cysteine and cysteinylglycine with upper gastrointestinal cancer risk. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings. This trial was registered at clininicaltrials.gov as NCT00342992.

Background: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.Methods: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.Results: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.Conclusions: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

Esophageal (EA) and esophagogastric junction (EGJA) adenocarcinoma have been steadily increasing in frequency in younger people, however the etiology of these cancers is poorly understood. We therefore investigated associations of body- mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, gastroesophageal reflux, and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in relation to age-specific risks of EA and EGJA. We pooled individual participant data from eight population-based, case-control studies within the international Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON). The analysis included 1,363 EA patients, 1,472 EGJA patients, and 5,728 control participants. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for age-specific (

We conducted a genome-wide association study of gastric cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in ethnic Chinese subjects in which we genotyped 551,152 SNPs. We report a combined analysis of 2,240 gastric cancer cases, 2,115 ESCC cases and 3,302 controls drawn from five studies. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex and study, multiple variants at 10q23 had genome-wide significance for gastric cancer and ESCC independently. A notable signal was rs2274223, a nonsynonymous SNP located in PLCE1, for gastric cancer (P = 8.40 x 10(-9); per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.31) and ESCC (P = 3.85 x 10(-9); OR = 1.34). The association with gastric cancer differed by anatomic subsite. For tumors in the cardia the association was stronger (P = 4.19 x 10(-15); OR = 1.57), and for those in the noncardia stomach it was absent (P = 0.44; OR = 1.05). Our findings at 10q23 could provide insight into the high incidence of both cancers in China.

Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common SNPs for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49,492 cancer cases and 34,131 controls. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, hl2, on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% CI = 14% - 37%) and 7% (4% - 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (ρ=0.73, SE=0.28), Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (ρ=0.53, SE=0.21), DLBCL and Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) (ρ=0.51, SE=0.18), and bladder and lung (ρ=0.35, SE=0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a non-smoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures. DESIGN Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis. RESULTS Overall, 503 905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar. CONCLUSIONS Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Studies of the fecal microbiome have implicated the gut microbiota in obesity, but few studies have examined the microbial diversity at other sites. The association between obesity and the upper gastrointestinal (UGI) microbial diversity was explored.The UGI microbiome of 659 healthy Chinese adults with a measured body mass index (BMI) range of 15.0 to 35.7 was characterized using the 16S rRNA gene DNA microarray (HOMIM).In multivariate-adjusted models, alpha diversity was not associated with BMI. However, beta diversity, assessed by principal coordinate vectors generated from an unweighted UniFrac distance matrix of pairwise comparisons, was associated with BMI (third and fourth vectors, P = 0.01 and P = 0.03, respectively). Moreover, beta diversity, assessed by cluster membership (three clusters), was also associated with BMI; individuals in the first cluster [median BMI 22.35, odds ratio (OR) = 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.05-4.34] and second cluster [median BMI 22.55, OR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.09-0.75] were significantly less likely to be obese (BMI ≥ 27.5) than those in the third cluster (median BMI 23.59).A beta-diversity metric of the UGI microbiome is associated with a four fold difference in obesity risk in this Asian population. Future studies should address whether the UGI microbiome plays a causal role in obesity.

Analyses of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data have revealed that detectable genetic mosaicism involving large (>2 Mb) structural autosomal alterations occurs in a fraction of individuals. We present results for a set of 24,849 genotyped individuals (total GWAS set II [TGSII]) in whom 341 large autosomal abnormalities were observed in 168 (0.68%) individuals. Merging data from the new TGSII set with data from two prior reports (the Gene-Environment Association Studies and the total GWAS set I) generated a large dataset of 127,179 individuals; we then conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the patterns of detectable autosomal mosaicism (n = 1,315 events in 925 [0.73%] individuals). Restricting to events >2 Mb in size, we observed an increase in event frequency as event size decreased. The combined results underscore that the rate of detectable mosaicism increases with age (p value = 5.5 × 10(-31)) and is higher in men (p value = 0.002) but lower in participants of African ancestry (p value = 0.003). In a subset of 47 individuals from whom serial samples were collected up to 6 years apart, complex changes were noted over time and showed an overall increase in the proportion of mosaic cells as age increased. Our large combined sample allowed for a unique ability to characterize detectable genetic mosaicism involving large structural events and strengthens the emerging evidence of non-random erosion of the genome in the aging population.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures. DESIGN Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis. RESULTS Overall, 503 905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar. CONCLUSIONS Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 × 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 × 10(-36) and PConditional = 2.36 × 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 × 10(-12) and PConditional = 5.19 × 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and PConditional = 2.04 × 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 × 10(-15) and PConditional = 5.35 × 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene (Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 × 10(-18) and PConditional = 7.06 × 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 x 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 x 10(-36) and P-Conditional = 2.36 x 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 x 10(-12) and P-Conditional = 5.19 x 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and P-Conditional = 2.04 x 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 x 10 215 and P-Conditional = 5.35 x 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene(Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 x 10(-18) and P-Conditional = 7.06 x 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci.

Populations in north central China are at high risk for gastric cancers (GC), and altered FAS-mediated cell signaling and/or apoptosis may contribute to this risk. We examined the association of 554 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 53 Fas signaling-related genes using a pathway-based approach in 1758 GC cases (1126 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas (GCA) and 632 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas (GNCA)), and 2111 controls from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of GC in ethnic Chinese. SNP associations with risk of overall GC, GCA and GNCA were evaluated using unconditional logistic regressions controlling for age, sex and study. Gene- and pathway-based associations were tested using the adaptive rank-truncated product (ARTP) method. Statistical significance was evaluated empirically by permutation. Significant pathway-based associations were observed for Fas signaling with risk of overall GC (P = 5.5E-04) and GCA (P = 6.3E-03), but not GNCA (P = 8.1E-02). Among examined genes in the Fas signaling pathway, MAP2K4, FAF1, MAPK8, CASP10, CASP8, CFLAR, MAP2K1, CAP8AP2, PAK2 and IKBKB were associated with risk of GC (nominal P < 0.05), and FAF1 and MAPK8 were significantly associated with risk of both GCA and GNCA (nominal P < 0.05). Our examination of genetic variation in the Fas signaling pathway is consistent with an association of altered Fas signaling and/or apoptosis with risk of GC. As one of the first attempts to investigate a pathway-level association, our results suggest that these genes and the Fas signaling pathway warrant further evaluation in relation to GC risk in other populations.

China has some of the highest incidence rates for gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the world. Prospective studies suggested that vitamin C may reduce risks; however, associations are unclear because of limited sample size.The objective was to examine the relation between prediagnostic plasma vitamin C and the risk of GA and ESCC.A case-cohort study was used to assess the association between prediagnostic plasma vitamin C and incidence of GA (n = 467) and ESCC (n = 618) in the General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial. With the use of multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated the HRs and 95% CIs. We also conducted a meta-analysis of the literature up to 1 October 2012 on the relation between circulating vitamin C and gastric cancer incidence. Two cohort studies and the current study were included to assess the body of evidence.For GA, each 20-μmol/L increase in plasma vitamin C was associated with a 14% decrease in risk (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.96). Compared with individuals with low plasma vitamin C concentrations (≤28 μmol/L), those with normal concentrations (28 μmol/L) had a 27% reduced risk of GA (HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.94). No association between vitamin C concentrations and ESCC was seen. Meta-analysis showed that the risk of incident GA among those with the highest concentration of plasma vitamin C was 31% lower (random-effects-pooled-odds ratio 0.69; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.89) than those in the lowest category.Our data provide evidence that higher circulating vitamin C was associated with a reduced risk of incident GA, but no association was seen for ESCC.

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of > 2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 x 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 x 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.

Regular use of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) has been reported to reduce risks for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and esophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma (EGJA). However, individual studies have been too small to accurately assess the effects of medication type, frequency, or duration of use. We performed a pooled analysis to investigate these associations.

BACKGROUND: Several obesity-related factors have been associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but it is unclear which individual factors directly influence risk. We addressed this question using genetic markers as proxies for putative risk factors and evaluated their relation to RCC risk in a mendelian randomization (MR) framework. This methodology limits bias due to confounding and is not affected by reverse causation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Genetic markers associated with obesity measures, blood pressure, lipids, type 2 diabetes, insulin, and glucose were initially identified as instrumental variables, and their association with RCC risk was subsequently evaluated in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 10,784 RCC patients and 20,406 control participants in a 2-sample MR framework. The effect on RCC risk was estimated by calculating odds ratios (ORSD) for a standard deviation (SD) increment in each risk factor. The MR analysis indicated that higher body mass index increases the risk of RCC (ORSD: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-1.70), with comparable results for waist-to-hip ratio (ORSD: 1.63, 95% CI 1.40-1.90) and body fat percentage (ORSD: 1.66, 95% CI 1.44-1.90). This analysis further indicated that higher fasting insulin (ORSD: 1.82, 95% CI 1.30-2.55) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; ORSD: 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.47), but not systolic blood pressure (ORSD: 0.98, 95% CI 0.84-1.14), increase the risk for RCC. No association with RCC risk was seen for lipids, overall type 2 diabetes, or fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel evidence for an etiological role of insulin in RCC, as well as confirmatory evidence that obesity and DBP influence RCC risk.

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of > 2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 x 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 x 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.

Background Several obesity-related factors have been associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but it is unclear which individual factors directly influence risk. We addressed this question using genetic markers as proxies for putative risk factors and evaluated their relation to RCC risk in a mendelian randomization (MR) framework. This methodology limits bias due to confounding and is not affected by reverse causation. Methods and findings Genetic markers associated with obesity measures, blood pressure, lipids, type 2 diabetes, insulin, and glucose were initially identified as instrumental variables, and their association with RCC risk was subsequently evaluated in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 10,784 RCC patients and 20,406 control participants in a 2-sample MR framework. The effect on RCC risk was estimated by calculating odds ratios (ORSD) for a standard deviation (SD) increment in each risk factor. The MR analysis indicated that higher body mass index increases the risk of RCC (ORSD: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44–1.70), with comparable results for waist-to-hip ratio (ORSD: 1.63, 95% CI 1.40–1.90) and body fat percentage (ORSD: 1.66, 95% CI 1.44–1.90). This analysis further indicated that higher fasting insulin (ORSD: 1.82, 95% CI 1.30–2.55) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; ORSD: 1.28, 95% CI 1.11–1.47), but not systolic blood pressure (ORSD: 0.98, 95% CI 0.84–1.14), increase the risk for RCC. No association with RCC risk was seen for lipids, overall type 2 diabetes, or fasting glucose. Conclusions This study provides novel evidence for an etiological role of insulin in RCC, as well as confirmatory evidence that obesity and DBP influence RCC risk., Using mendelian randomization approaches, Paul Brennan and colleagues reveal an association between 12 obesity-related factors, including insulin and the development of renal cell carcinoma., Author summary Why was this study done? Traditional observational studies wherein putative risk factors are measured directly have found several obesity-related factors associated with increased risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Traditional observational studies are subject to confounding and reverse causation and have not been able to disentangle which obesity-related risk factors directly influence RCC risk. This study used an alternative methodology commonly referred to as mendelian randomization (MR). MR circumvents many of the inherent limitations of traditional observational study by use of genetic proxies of putative risk factors when evaluating their associations with disease risk, as they are not subject to reverse causation and are less likely to be confounded by other risk factors. What did the researchers do and find? First, we used large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify genetic variants associated with obesity measures, blood pressure, lipids, type 2 diabetes, insulin, and glucose. Second, these genetic variants were used as proxies for the above-mentioned risk factors and evaluated in relation RCC risk using GWAS data from 10,000 RCC patients and 20,000 control participants. Based on these genetic data, we found that multiple measures of obesity, as well as diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and fasting insulin, are associated with RCC risk. In contrast, we found little evidence for an association with RCC risk for systolic blood pressure (SBP), circulating lipids, overall diabetes, or fasting glucose. What do these findings mean? This study provided robust and confirmatory evidence of an important role of obesity as an important risk factor of RCC. Further confirmatory evidence was found for elevated DBP as a risk factor of RCC, but it is not clear why DBP rather than SBP is important in RCC. The study, to our knowledge, provided novel evidence of an important role of circulating insulin in RCC etiology. This study provided some novel insights into the pathways involved in mediating the risk increase in RCC that is caused by obesity, most notably through insulin and DBP, but further research is needed to fully elucidate the important relationship between obesity and RCC.