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In this paper, we analyse the dynamic cyclical co-movements between oil prices and macroeconomic leading variables in Saudi Arabia within a time-frequency approach. Specifically, we check the relevance of the cyclicality of non-oil GDP, public expenditure, and trade balance with oil price cycles. To overcome the deficiency of traditional econometric methods and standard wavelet correlation methods, our study uses partial and multiple wavelet coherence for an annual data set covering the period 1970–2016. Our findings unveil a high level of coherence between the four variables and these linkages are changing through time scales and frequency bands. Specifically, we uncover pro-cyclical fiscal policy through a negative correlation between non-oil balance and oil prices and via a positive correlation between government spending and changes in oil prices. Our results offer several conspicuous implications and operational recommendations for Saudi policymakers and regulators, especially when elaborating the Government budget.

We study a small open economy with labor, capital accumulation, random death, taxation and a government budget balanced in the long run. We offer methods that provide ordinary differential equations for means and analytical expressions for densities. The latter is achieved by solving stochastic differential equations analytically and deriving the density from this solution. Starting from any distribution, the aggregate distribution converges, both on a transition path towards a steady state and on a transition path towards balanced growth, to a Pareto-distribution. We provide an intuitive economic interpretation for a stationary long-run density with an infinite mean in an economy on a balanced growth path. We also show how government tax policy can lead to non-monotonic links between the equilibrium growth rate of the economy and risk aversion of households.

The PPP mode of rural water environment governance was conducive to attracting social capital for giving full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, coordinating the interests of all parties, and relieving the government budget pressure and debt burden. The cooperation strategy of rural water environment governance PPP projects was analyzed from the perspective of evolutionary game, and dynamic process between project company and farmers was elaborated. First, evolutionary game theory was applied to study the cooperation strategy selection between stakeholders, i.e., the project company and farmers in PPP mode of rural water environment governance project, and evolutionary game model and duplicate dynamic equation were presented for cooperation with project company and farmers, and evolutionary path was obtained. Then four parameters with discount rate of water charges, incentive rate, plant income increasing rate, contribution rate of farmers on the choice of cooperation strategies were simulated. It was indicated that effort strategy of project company and participation strategy of farmers were interrelated from perspective of evolutionary game, and effort strategy of project company was improved discount rate of water charges, incentive rate and plant income increasing rate of farmers, and participation enthusiasm of farmers was improved; thus, engineering quality and efficient operation were assured. As a result, the evolutionary path of cooperation strategy between project company and farmers was suggested as effort strategy and participation strategy, respectively, and corresponding measures of company and participation style of farmers were adopted for promoting the formation of the final equilibrium state.

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the potential of using the results of modeling potential GDP and estimating the output gap to comply with fiscal rules that are adequate for the corresponding economic cycle of the economy of Kazakhstan. The methods of economic, statistical, graphical, system, functional analysis, economic and mathematical modeling are applied. To achieve this goal, the analysis of Kazakhstan’s fiscal stability was carried out based on the assessment of Kazakhstan’s potential GDP and the calculation of output gaps, which were carried out based on the dynamic series method of the reported real GDP in 2005 prices for 1991-2019 using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (CP) using the EViews 10 econometric package. The current mechanism for using the output gap indicator in Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy does not have sufficient flexibility. For a timely response of the budget system to changes in the economic situation in the country or abroad, considering the output gap, it is important to introduce an automatic adjustment system that can eliminate contradictions and inconsistencies when making macroeconomic policy decisions by the main regulator and the government of the country. To do this, there is a need to revise the existing fiscal policy based on building a system of new budget rules on countercyclical principles. The proposed alternative fiscal model with the introduction of the rule on the structural balance of the budget is aimed at ensuring long-term fiscal stability, which does not allow for a pro-cyclical policy.

This research sought to assess the performance of regional financial management in Gianyar Regency during 2016-2020, as measured by the degree of fiscal decentralization ratio, the regional financial dependence ratio, the Original Regional Government Revenue effectiveness ratio, the regional financial efficiency ratio, and the regional expenditure compatibility ratio. In addition, this research also determined the regional financial capacity of Gianyar Regency, measured through the calculation of Share and Growth, the mapping of regional financial capacity, and the index of regional financial capacity. The research results revealed that the financial management performance of Gianyar Regency during 2016-2020 on average was in a bad condition. It can be seen from its low regional autonomy and its high dependency on the central government. In addition, the regional government has not been able to streamline the regional finances in which regional expenditures were greater than regional revenues. The distribution of regional budget in Gianyar Regency has not been evenly allocated so that the performance regional financial management was at worse state. However, viewed from the level of regional financial capacity, Gianyar Regency has very good potential, obstructed by its low level of Original Regional Government Revenue use to finance regional expenditures.

PurposeThis paper analyzes variations in the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on responses of macroeconomic variables, determinacy region, and welfare costs due to changes in trend inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop the New-Keynesian model, in which the central banks can employ either nominal interest rate (IR rule) or money supply (MS rule) to conduct monetary policies. They also use their capital and recurrent spending budgets to conduct fiscal policies. By using the simulated method of moment (SMM) for parameter estimation, the authors characterize Vietnam's economy during 1996Q1–2015Q1.FindingsThe results report that consequences of monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks become more serious if there is a rise in trend inflation. Furthermore, the money supply might not be an effective instrument, and using the government budget for recurrent spending produces severe consequences in the high-trend inflation economy.Practical implicationsThis paper's findings are critical for economists and monetary and fiscal authorities in effectively designing both the monetary and fiscal policies in confronting the shift in the inflation targets.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that examines the effects of trend inflation on the monetary and fiscal policy implementation in the case of Vietnam.

This paper explores the economics and political economy of financialization using Matt Taibbi's vampire squid metaphor to characterize it. The paper makes five innovations. First, it focuses on the mechanics of the ‘vampire squid’ process whereby financialization rotates through the economy, loading sector balance sheets with debt. Second, it identifies the critical role of government budget deficits for the financialization process. Third, it identifies the critical role of central banks, which are the lynchpin of the system and now serve as de facto guarantors of the value and liquidity of private sector liabilities. Fourth, the paper argues financialization imposes a form of policy lock-in. Fifth, it argues financialization transforms popular attitudes and understandings, thereby generating political support despite poor economic outcomes. In effect, there is a politics of financialization that goes hand-in-hand with the economics. The paper concludes with some observations on why mainstream macroeconomics has no equivalent construct to financialization and discusses the disquieting unexplored terrain that the economy is now in.

This research paper attempts to show visually how the COVID-19 quarantines can generate mas-sive unemployment, constant expansion of inflation, reduction of the purchasing power parity, and poverty expansion from a multidimensional perspective. This visualization is only possible by creating a new multivariate graphical modeling called “The Multidimensional Poverty Kaleidoscope Graph.” The multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a particular group of coun-tries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries interested in applying the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. There are four primary phases in the implementation of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. The first phase is the design of the input-output-table. The second phase is divided into two sections of analysis: the first section of analysis assumes that the COVID-19 quarantine time framework growth rate (Y = Independent variable) impacts directly on our four variables in analysis, such as the inflation growth rate (X1);the unemployment growth rate (X2);purchasing power parity growth rate (X3);the government budget deficit (X4). In the second section of the analysis, the last past four variables in analysis became our dependent variables and directly affected the poverty growth rate (Z). The third phase is the construction of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. Finally, the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph was applied to three countries, such as the U.S., Malaysia, and Guatemala. © 2021, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw. All rights reserved.

This paper investigates the impact of the Government's capital and current expenditures on economic growth in Azerbaijan. The estimation strategy of the research consists of two directions. First, all estimation approaches were used for the period of 2005Q1-2019Q4. The estimated model for this period is called Model 1. Second, the model which is called Model 2 was estimated for whole period of 2005Q12021Q1. This approach allows comparing the role of the Government expenditures on non-oil economic activity in normal times and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Azerbaijan. Estimations show that coefficients characterizing the impact of Government current expenditures and capital expenditures on non-oil economic growth are almost the same for both periods. Therefore, we can state that COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the structure of the relationship between Government expenditures and non-oil economic growth. Results show that 1 percent increase in capital and current expenditures of state budget increases the real non-oil GDP by 0.10 and 0.40 percentage points, respectively. Accordingly, both capital and current expenditures of the state budget have positive impact on the real non-oil GDP growth for the both periods. This is in contrast to findings in the literature, which argue that increasing current expenditures financed by tax hikes lead to a lagged decrease in private investment, having an overall negative impact on economic growth. We attribute this opposing finding to the Azerbaijani state budget revenue system, which is financed by transfers from the State Oil Fund (Stabilization Fund). Thus, large government investment and social projects mostly rely on non-tax sources. Therefore, we argue that positive impact of capital and current expenditures of government budget on non-oil GDP seems plausible for Azerbaijan. Another result of our estimation is that expansion of economic openness accompanied by non-oil economic growth plunge in Azerbaijan. We interpret this phenomenon with very low share of non-oil export, where openness is mostly caused by increase in import volume.

Kamu harcamalarının seyri hem devletçi iktisadi sistemi uygulayan ülkelerde hem de piyasa ekonomik şartlarını benimseyen ülkelerde sürekli artış göstermektedir. Devlet, sosyal güvenlik, eğitim sağlık, adalet gibi alanlarda ek görevler de üstlenmiştir. Bu nedenle devletin ekonomik sistemdeki rolü sürekli olarak önem kazanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda etkin bir bütçe sistemi kamu harcamalarında da etkinliğin artmasını sağlayacaktır. Toplam kamu harcamalarının bir yansıması olan genel devlet bütçesi giderleri de kaynak dağılımını belirleyen en önemli mekanizmalardan birini oluşturmaktadır. Bütçe harcamalarının incelenmesi, harcamaların hangi hizmetlere ayrıldığının görülmesini sağlamakta ve uygulanan ekonomik ve sosyal politikaların sonuçlarının görülüp değerlendirilmesini sağlayabilmektedir. Çalışmada, Türkiye’nin de üyesi olduğu Ekonomik İş Birliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü (OECD) üyesi olan bazı ülkelerde fonksiyonel sınıflandırma esas alınarak, devlet bütçesinde yer alan harcamaların 2006-2020 dönemindeki gelişimi değerlendirilmiştir. Türkiye’nin, OECD üyesi ülkeleri arasında, genel olarak en düşük harcama payına sahip grupta yer aldığı görülmektedir. Bütçede yer alan harcamaların olumlu ekonomik ve sosyal sonuçlarının görülebilmesi için etkin bir harcama politikası, ihtiyacı bulunmaktadır., In light of developments in military technologies, armies are actively using artificial intelligence technology in order to make fast and accurate decisions on data. Algorithms have reached the level of development to decide who should be detained, set targets, and decide. In the literature, autonomous weapon systems have been evaluated mostly in terms of international humanitarian law. However, in this study, the concepts of algorithmic target construction, autonomous weapon systems, and detention by algorithms were examined in terms of the positive obligations of states to protect human rights, specifically the right to life and the right to privacy. There are two main research questions that were examined in this article. First, to what extent is it possible and reliable to convert legal concepts into computer code? Second, is it possible to trust the decisions taken by the algorithms and the predictions they make and to check their compliance with the law? This study supported the view that the use of autonomous weapon systems and algorithms without meaningful human control to identify targets using machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies will not be compatible with international human rights law and international humanitarian law.

U suvremenom poreznom sustavu postoji nekoliko poreznih oblika koji su važni zbog svoje fiskalne izdašnosti. Posebni porezi i trošarine su neizravni porezi kojima se oporezuje jedan ili nekoliko određenih proizvoda. Posebni porezi nisu prilagođeni zahtjevima Europske unije i u njih ubrajamo poreze na: motorna vozila, kavu, bezalkoholna pića te premije osiguranja od automobilske odgovornosti i premije kasko osiguranja cestovnih vozila. Trošarine su sadržane u harmoniziranom sustavu Europske unije koji obuhvaća: alkohol i alkoholna pića, duhanske proizvode te energente i električnu energiju. Posebni porezi i trošarine su prihod državnog proračuna., In the modern tax system there are several tax forms that are important because of their fiscal generosity. Special taxes and excise duties are indirect taxes that tax one or several specific products. Special taxes aren't adjusted to the requirements of the European union and include taxes on: motor vehicles, coffee, non-alcoholic beverages and the tax on liability and comprehensive road vehicle insurance premiums. Excise duties are contained in harmonised system of the European union which includes: alcohol and alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and energy products and electricity. Special taxes and excise duties are revenue of the government budget.

This study aims to assess the feasibility of regional national economic recovery loans (PEN) in Bone Bolango Regency, by analyzing 4 (four) indicators of eligibility requirements for granting Regional PEN Loans, namely (1) the area is affected by Covid 19; (2) have a Regional Economic Recovery program or activity that supports the National Economic Recovery program; (3) The remaining amount of the loan plus the amount of the loan to be withdrawn does not exceed 75 percent of the general revenue of the previous year's Regional Government Budget; (4) meet the ratio of regional financial capacity to repay regional loans of at least 2.5 percent.The first and second indicators were tested using desk study analysis. then the third and fourth indicators are tested by analyzing the financial statements of the Bone Bolango Regency in 2020 and calculating the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) to assess the ability of the region to repay loans. The results showed that Bone Bolango Regency deserved a regional loan from the Central Government. This is because Bone Bolango fulfills 4 (four) loan requirements for the national economic recovery area.

The purpose of this study was to examine and explain the clarity of budget targets, and the internal control system on performance accountability in OPD Malang City in moderation of budgetary participation. This study uses quantitative research methods. Population of 34 Regional Apparatus Organizations in Malang City. The data analysis technique used multiple regression analysis. The results showed the clarity of budget targets, and the internal control system had an effect on performance accountability in OPD Malang City. A clear budget and according to organizational goals increases the accountability of the performance of government agencies. The implementation of an internal control system in each activity increases the accountability of the performance of government agencies. Participation in budgeting moderates the relationship between the clarity of budget targets and the internal control system that affects performance accountability. Participation in budgeting is very important for the preparation of a government budget in accordance with organizational goals. With participation in budgeting, the clarity of budget targets and the internal control system has increased and has an impact on increasing the accountability of government performance.

This study aims to analyze the role of the West Sumatra Provincial Government in Control of Rock Mining in Sikabu village, Lubuk Alung sub-district, District of Padang Pariaman. As a background of this research is founded that the high level of rock mining exploitation activities in the form of landfill and sirtukil excavation had an impact on road and bridge infrastructure causing damage and disconnection of transportation routes around the mining area, while there was no improvement to the infrastructure. The focus of this research is how to control rock mining in the site. The role of the provincial government in controlling rock mining, and the factors that influence the role of the provincial government in controlling rock mining. The research is a qualitative research with a descriptive method. Data obtained through observation, interviews, and documentation study. The data validity test was done by using source triangulation technique. Data processing techniques with data reduction, data presentation and drawing conclusions. The results of this study indicate that the role of the West Sumatra provincial government which is part of an integrated regional law enforcement team (in accordance with the Decree of the Governor of West Sumatra Province Number 332-107-2019), is not running effectively because the role of the government as information is not well implemented. The lack of mining raids carried out by the government has an impact on the low level of community awareness. Many communities deliberately avoid mining raids which are only occasionally carried out by the government. In fact, this mining raid aims to provide socialization to the community about the importance of environmental balance in exploiting rock mines. Several factors that influence the role of the provincial government in controlling rock mining in the village of Sikabu are among others: a) Disparity of vision and mission among agencies that are members of the integrated regional law enforcement team. b) Limitation of provincial government budget for mining raids.

Since 1979, the technology development projects held by Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) of Taiwan have gradually become the most important policy of Taiwan’s industrial technology development. The organization technology development project (OTDP) takes the major share of government budget. Thus, the performance evaluation for the OTPD has become an important issue for Taiwan’s technology policy. The purpose of this study is to apply the dynamic slack-based measure (DSBM) to investigate the integrated performances for the OTDP in consecutive periods and for various industrial domains that include electronics, information, communications and optoelectronics (EICO), mechanics, mechatronics and transportation (MMT) and biotechnology, pharmaceutics, material and chemistry (BPMC). The experemental results show that BPMC have been funded much more than other organizations but with a worse efficiency. The BPMC gets the lowest execution efficiency score of 0.3082 while the EICO gets the best avernge efficiency score of 0.5831. based on the results, it is suggested that Taiwan government should evaluate the integrated performances of OTDP in consecutive time periods for various industrial domains.

I develop a model of real exchange rate determination that attributes a central role to the intertemporal government budget condition, which equates the market value of government debt to the present value of government surpluses. To enforce this equilibrium condition in the presence of nominal rigidities, the real exchange rate has to adjust in response to shocks to government surpluses. The model predicts that fiscal shocks account for real exchange rate movements, and the factor structure in fiscal shocks aligns with the factor structure in currency returns. Both predictions are confirmed in the sample of developed countries.

Kerajinan sangkar burung adalah usaha ekonomi kreatif yang memanfaatkan potensi lokal juga mengasah kemampuan dan ketrampilan. Sangkar burung yang terbuat dari bahan kayu dengan tambah hiasan ukiran. Pengelolaan kerajinan sangkar burung mampu meningkatkan perekonomian warga Desa Gedog Wetan Kecamatan Turen, Kabupaten Malang. Mampu memproduksi kualitas super dengan pemasaran sudah luar Jawa bahkan mampu ekspor ke Meksiko. Pendekatan penelitian yang dilakukan peneliti adalah jenis penelitian kualitatif deskriptif. Tujuan penelitian adalah mendeskripsikan tentang pemberdayaan masyarakat dalam mengelola kerajinan sangkar burung dan dampak terhadap peningkatan perekonomian masyarakat Desa Gedog Wetan. Pemberdayaan ekonomi masyarakat desa dalam pembuatan sangkar burung sudah memiliki prospek ke depan yang bagus hingga mampu menjadi ciri khas desa dan mampu menyejahterakan perekonomian masyarakat desa. Penting untuk diteliti karena model yang telah diusulkan disetujui dan sudah diterapkan untuk anggaran pemerintah tahun depan sebagai percontohan proyek dengan dukungan berbagai pemangku kepentingan. Diharapkan model tersebut mampu mempercepat pembangunan ekonomi pedesaan, dan perluasan usaha kerajinan yang dikelola secara berkelanjutan.

In the context of transparency and accountability of public money management, the Bandung City Government uses a tool called e-budgeting. Not only has the objectives of transparency and accountability, but the use of a budget formulation application system using e-budgeting is also expected to be able to improve the government's financial performance to be more economical, efficient, and effective. This study aims to measure the financial performance of the Bandung City Government before and after the use of e-budgeting using the concept of value for money for the 2014-2019 fiscal year. Data analysis used descriptive analysis with quantitative research methods. The results of the study are based on the Analysis of the Bandung City Government Budget Realization Report for the 2014-2016 fiscal year (before the use of e-budgeting) using the concept of Value for money, Bandung City Government financial performance shows economic criteria (78.72%), inefficient (98.04%) and effective (90.65%). Meanwhile, for the 2017-2019 fiscal year (after the use of e-budgeting) the financial performance of the Bandung City Government shows economic criteria (83.39%), inefficient (99.48%), and quite effective (88%).

This paper provides an ex post evaluation of Iran's energy subsidy reform of main law, definitions, its aims and scope, its effectiveness, and problems. Based on an assessment of policy reports, actual data, peer‐reviewed studies, and regression models, this study suggests evidence that the removal of energy subsidies in Iran was effective in reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions only in the first 2 years of policy implementation. But, over the next years, the demand for energy commodities increased because of the incomplete implementation of the policy. Besides some local and international economic, social, and political challenges, the policy was not completed in the subsequent years because the government did not prepare its preliminary theoretical framework and requirements in the three stages of legislation and transparency – implementation and management, control, and adjustment of the negative policy impacts. Moreover, the decline in environmental emissions occurred mainly due to fuel switching, as natural gas consumption in power plants, industries, and transport, and rather the use of renewable energies, increased substantially. Likewise, at the time of removal of energy subsidies, the government introduced a cash transfer scheme until the present. This compensation scheme has had significant burdens on the government budget and reaches the trillions of rials each year, while in the first year of the policy, it improved the socioeconomic welfare. The econometric results showed that removing energy subsidies is an effective policy in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran. This study provides important policy recommendations for sustainable energy security and economic development in Iran. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pandemi Covid-19 memberikan dampak yang sangat luas terhadap segala aspek kehidupan masyarakat. Pemerintah sendiri telah mencanangkan program Desa Tangguh Bencana sejak tahun 2014, dalam memberdayakan masyarakat desa menghadapi bencana. Saat bencana pandemi Covid-19 melanda, di Sumatera Barat program ini digaungkan kembali dalam bentuk Program Nagari Tageh. Namun pemerintah dan masyarakat nagari masih memerlukan penguatan dalam merencanakan dan mengimplementasikan program ini. Kegiatan ini bertujuan untuk memberikan pendampingan kepada masyarakat dan Pemerintah Nagari Sumaniak dalam menyusun rencana pembangunan nagari yang responsif terhadap dampak pandemi Covid-19 melalui penguatan pemberdayaan masyarakat. Kegiatan ini dilakukan pada tahun 2020 dengan tahapan identifikasi masalah dan kebutuhan prioritas masyarakat nagari dalam mengurangi dampak pandemi Covid-19, identifikasi program dan kegiatan untuk menyelesaikan masalah tersebut, dan melakukan pembahasan pembiayaan program melalui anggaran pemerintah nagari. Kegiatan ini telah menghasilkan program dan kegiatan yang telah disepakati oleh masyarakat dan pemerintahan nagari untuk dilaksanakan pada tahun 2021. Rencana pembangunan yang dihasilkan ini mencerminkan rencana pembangunan yang responsif terhadap masalah dan kebutuhan masyarakat, dan partisipatif karena melibatkan masyarakat dalam penyusunannya. Melalui kegiatan kemitraan bersama Unand, tim akan menjadi mitra nagari mulai dari tahap perencanaan, pelaksanaan, monitoring dan evaluasi program pembangunan Nagari Tageh. Sehingga Nagari Sumaniak siap menghadapi pandemi maupun bencana lain di masa datang dan menjadi Nagari Mandiri di segala aspek pembangunan.

One of the conditions needed for development to be carried out properly is the condition of a healthy community. Without a healthy community, development in one area cannot be done well. Health itself is more a public good than a private good, so in this case government intervention is absolutely necessary. This research tries to look at several factors which are predicted to be able to influence the condition of public health. Some of these factors are the availability of infrastructure in the health sector, the government budget and public participation in health insurance issued by the government. Using data between 2017 and 2019 in 38 districts in East Java Province, it was found that only the public participation variable in health insurance issued by the government had a positive and significant impact, while the other variables did not affect the health condition of the community. The behavior of people in Indonesia who tend to register for health insurance if they have experienced health problems is one indication of a positive relationship between public health conditions and the number of participants in government health insurance .

This study aims to analyze the influence of the variables of Local Own Revenue, General Allocation Funds, Special Allocation Funds, Profit Sharing Funds and Employee Expenditures on Capital Expenditures at Regency / City Governments in East Nusa Tenggara Province 2015-2018 partially and simultaneously. The population in this study were 22 regencies / municipalities in East Nusa Tenggara Province during the 2015-2018 period. This study uses secondary data in the form of the East Nusa Tenggara Provincial Government Budget Realization Report. Hypothesis testing in this study using multiple linear regression with t test, F test and coefficient of determination. The data that has been collected is analyzed first with a classical assumption test before testing the hypothesis. The results of the study partially show that the variables of Local Own Revenue and Special Allocation Funds have a significant effect on Capital Expenditures, while the variables of General Allocation Funds, Profit Sharing Funds and Employee Expenditures have no significant effect on Capital Expenditures. The results of the research simultaneously show that the variables of Local Own Revenue, General Allocation Fund, Special Allocation Fund, Profit Sharing Fund and Employee Expenditure have an effect on capital expenditure.

2020年にモンゴル政府が実施した COIVD-19対策は、モンゴルの輸出入の減少、国内生産の減少、サービス収益の減少といった著しい経済収縮をもたらし、対前年同期比実質経済成長率は、2020年第1四半期と第2四半期においてそれぞれ10.7％減と9.1％減となり、上半期で9.7％減の景気後退となった。この景気後退は主として、鉱業・採掘業の付加価値が30％減少したことによるものである。前年においてモンゴルの GDP の23.7％は、鉱業・採掘部門によって生み出されたものであった。2020年上半期に、モンゴルは135カ国と貿易を行ったが、総貿易売上高の56.2％は中国との貿易によるものであり、輸出の74.7％は中国への輸出である。当初、2020年の鉱業輸出はモンゴルの予算収入の1/3を生み出すと見積もられていたが、パンデミックによりその実現はほぼ不可能となった。中国経済が停滞し、鉱物需要が減少したため、一般政府歳入は前年比21.4％減少した。中国への鉱物輸出が減少したため、モンゴルの貿易額と一般政府歳入は急激に減少した。一方で、社会保険からの年金給付（17.8％）と福祉からの年金給付（89.7％）などの社会支出が増加したため、歳出が大幅に拡大した。パンデミックの期間中、政府は国民の福祉を志向する政策を追求することが倫理的に求められる。しかし、福祉支出の過度な拡大は国家財政を圧迫し、このことが景気後退をもたらしうる。したがって、支出に対応して収入を増やす調和がとれた財政政策を続け、財政規律を強化することが肝要である。さらに、財源の備蓄を危険にさらすような政策決定は回避しなければならない。, The Mongolian government took anti-COIVD-19 pandemic measures in 2020, which led to a significant economic contraction characterized by a decline in exports and imports, reduced domestic production and decreased service revenues. The country experienced an economic downturn of 10.7 % and 9.1 % in the first and second quarters, respectively, corresponding to a 9.7 % decline in the first half of the year. This was mainly due to a 30 % reduction of value-added in the mining and quarrying sectors. Value-added generated in the mining and quarrying sectors accounted for 23.7 % of Mongolian GDP in 2019. In the first half of 2020, Mongolia has conducted foreign trades with 135 countries, with China accounting for 56.2 % of total trade turnover and covering 74.7 % of all exports. Mining exports to China were expected to generate one-third of Mongolia’s budget revenue in 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic made that nigh on impossible. As the Chinese economy stagnated and mineral demand declined, the general government budget revenue fell 21.4 % compared to the same time in 2019. The reduction in mineral exports to China led to a sharp decline in Mongolia's trade turnover and general government budget revenues. On the other hand, budget expenditures expanded greatly owing to increases in social spending, such as social insurance pensions/benefits (17.8 %) and welfare pensions/benefits (89.7 %). During the pandemic, the government is ethically required to pursue a people-oriented social welfare policy. However, excessive expansion of welfare outlays will strain the state budget and result in further economic slowdown. Therefore, continuing the unified budget policy to increase revenues corresponding to expenditures and strengthening budget discipline is crucial. Moreover, decision making that would jeopardize the accumulated budget resources must be avoided.

The rate of government budget revenue has tended to decrease in recent years because of the policies of tax exemption, relaxation and reduction after 2012 and the annual inflation rate was lower in the 2012 period compared to the 2008 period - 2011 caused the revenue growth rate of some taxes dependent on inflation to decrease. Discipline of government budget expenditure still had some limitations when, for many consecutive years, government budget expenditures were actually higher than estimated. Government budget deficit had been high for many years and was higher than the original estimate, leading to a tendency to increase public debt per GDP and peaked in 2016 at 63.7% of GDP. Government budget revenue in the first 9 months of 2020 decreased by 11.5% compared to the same period in 2019, reaching 975.3 trillion VND, as 64.5% of the estimation. In which, the central budget was estimated at 60.4% of the estimation, the local budget was estimated at 69.8% of the estimate. Domestic revenue in 9 months was at the lowest level compared to the same period in some recent years. This paper gave an assessment of the current government budget revenue, expenditure, overspending situation and public debt and from there on, some recommendations for Vietnam were proposed.

To stimulate the capital-constrained manufacturer to produce green products, the government often adopts two incentive mechanisms: green credit (i.e., subsidy offered directly to bank) and subsidy (i.e., subsidy offered directly to manufacturer). This paper examines the optimal interest rate of the bank, and the optimal product green degree and sales price of the manufacturer under the two mechanisms, respectively. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of these mechanisms on the optimal decisions, the profits of players, the social welfare and the environmental benefits. Several important results are obtained. First, when the total government subsidy is low, the green credit mechanism can bring the higher green degree, product sales price and demand, as well as higher profits for the bank and manufacturer, rather than the subsidy mechanism. Otherwise, the result is opposite. Second, the government should adopt the green credit mechanism to support the manufacturer to develop green products when the budget is limited and relatively low. If the government budget is sufficient, the subsidy mechanism is the best choice, which can bring higher economic and environmental benefits.

Health prepayment, a key indicator under the Sustainable Development Goals monitoring framework, is strongly associated with household financial protection; however, the impact of government health budget on the level of prepayment has rarely been discussed.To address the following research questions. (1) Does a higher government health budget translate into higher prepayment rates in the healthcare financing system? (2) What are the effects of government health budget on public prepayment and private prepaid plans? (3) What are the heterogeneities between groups of countries with different income levels and public health prepayment systems?Analysis of panel co-integration, impulse response function, and variance decomposition were conducted in 34 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members for the period 1995-2016.Government health budget has a long-running equilibrium relationship with the level of public and total prepayment. However, a stable relationship could not be confirmed with private prepaid plans. Moreover, government health budget played a significant positive role in explaining the fluctuations in the total and public prepayments over a long time, that is, 51 and 37 periods, respectively. Considering differences between groups of countries, the impacts are greater for those with higher income levels and more public-dominated health-financing systems.Government health budget has a long-time relationship with the levels of both total prepaid expenditure and public prepayment. By contrast, it does not systematically crowd out private prepaid plans.أثر الميزانية الحكومية على مستويات الدفع المسبق في مجال الصحة: دلائل مستمدة من بلدان منظمة التعاون والتنمية في الميدان الاقتصادي.ينج تشانج، جاك فانيست، وينكينج بان، ليوي تشانج.يرتبط الدفع المسبق للحصول على الخدمات الصحية، وهو مؤشر رئيسي في إطار رصد أهداف التنمية المستدامة، بصورة وثيقة بالحماية المالية للأسر؛ غير أنه من النادر أن تجري مناقشة تأثير الميزانية الحكومية للصحة على مستويات الدفع المسبق.هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى الرد على الأسئلة البحثية التالية: (1) هل يُترجَم ارتفاع مخصصات الميزانية الحكومية للصحة إلى ارتفاع معدلات الدفع المسبق في نظام تمويل الرعاية الصحية؟ (2) ما هي آثار الميزانية الحكومية للصحة على خطط الدفع المسبق العامة وخطط الدفع المسبق الخاصة؟ (3) ما هي أوجه التفاوت بين مجموعات البلدان المختلفة من حيث مستويات الدخل ونُظُم الدفع المسبق في مجال الصحة العامة؟.أجري تحليل تآلف المجموعة، ووظيفة الاستجابة الاندفاعية، وتحليل التفكك التبايني في 34 عضواً في منظمة التعاون والتنمية في الميدان الاقتصادي خلال الفترة من 1995 وحتى 2016.هناك علاقة طويلة الأمد ومتوازنة بين الميزانية الحكومية للصحة ومستوى الدفع المسبق العام وإجمالي الدفع المسبق. ومع ذلك، لم يتسن تأكيد وجود علاقة مستقرة مع خطط الدفع المسبق الخاصة. وعلاوة على ذلك، فقد أدت الميزانية الحكومية للصحة دوراً إيجابياً هاماً في تفسير التقلبات في إجمالي الدفع المسبق والدفع المسبق العام على مدى فترة طويلة بلغت 51 و 37 دورة على التوالي. وبالنظر إلى الاختلافات بين مجموعات البلدان، فإن الآثار المترتبة تكتسي أهمية أكبر بالنسبة للبلدان التي لديها مستويات دخل أعلى ونُظُم تمويل صحي يهيمن عليها القطاع العام أكثر من أي قطاع آخر.هناك علاقة ممتدة بين الميزانية الحكومية للصحة ومستويات إجمالي الإنفاق المدفوع مقدماً والدفع المسبق العام على حد سواء. وعلى العكس من ذلك، فإن الميزانية الحكومية لا تتنافس مع خطط الدفع المسبق الخاصة.Impact du budget de l’État sur les niveaux de prépaiement pour les soins de santé : données probantes des pays membres de l’OCDE.Le prépaiement pour les soins de santé, un indicateur clé du cadre de suivi des objectifs de développement durable, est fortement associé à la protection financière des ménages ; toutefois, l’impact du budget public de la santé sur le niveau de prépaiement a rarement été examiné.Répondre aux questions de recherche suivantes. 1) Une augmentation du budget public de la santé se traduitelle par des taux de prépaiement plus élevés dans le système de financement des soins de santé ? 2) Quels sont les effets du budget public de la santé sur le prépaiement public et les systèmes privés de prépaiement ? 3) Quelles sont les hétérogénéités entre les groupes de pays ayant des niveaux de revenu et des systèmes de prépaiement de santé différents ?Pour la période 1995-2016, 34 membres de l'Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) ont procédé à une analyse de la co-intégration des panels, de la fonction de réponse impulsive et de la décomposition des variances.Le budget public de la santé est depuis longtemps en équilibre avec le niveau des prépaiements publics et totaux. Cependant, une relation stable n'a pas pu être confirmée avec les systèmes privés de prépaiement. En outre, le budget de la santé a joué un rôle positif important en expliquant les fluctuations de l’ensemble des prépaiements et des prépaiements publics sur une longue période, c'est-à-dire 51 et 37 périodes, respectivement. Compte tenu des différences entre groupes de pays, les impacts sont plus importants pour ceux dont les niveaux de revenu sont plus élevés et dont les systèmes de financement de la santé sont plus à dominante publique.Le budget public de la santé est lié depuis longtemps aux niveaux du total des dépenses prépayées et des prépaiements publics. En revanche, il ne permet pas de supplanter systématiquement les systèmes privés de prépaiement.

The paper aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the construction industry of Nepal. This research is based on primary data, and the nature of the data is qualitative. The sources of empirical data have been collected with the help of unstructured interviews with nine professional contractors who have been directly involved in the construction sectors for a long time. This study used a thematic analysis to examine the responses provided by participants in the research field. The major three themes and 12 sub-themes were generated from the study to find the impact of COVID-19 on the construction industry in Nepal. The study finds the three-level of impacts—financial, operational, and institutional on construction sectors. The government budget reduction, the deteriorating financial situation of the contractors, late payment, and over cost runs of the projects are the financial impact. Likewise, the operational level impact is related to delay in project completion, supply chain problems, difficulty in workforce management, and maintaining the health and safety of the workforce. The study finds no adequate support and special packages from the government, including professional associations. The government and regulatory authority should support the construction industry to build efficient, competent, and resourceful sectors. Once the issues and expectations of constructional professionals are addressed, that ultimately helps to enhance the construction industry’s performance. Finally, the construction professionals, the industry, and the government will be benefited.

Cilj je ovoga rada, analizom multiplikativnih učinaka i intenziteta regionalne povezanosti, identificirati sektore s najvećim potencijalom za ublažavanje negativnih gospodarskih posljedica širenja COVID-19 virusa u Hrvatskoj. Hrvatska je podijeljena u dvije regije: Kontinentalna Hrvatska i Jadranska Hrvatska. U izradi regionalnih input-output tablica korištena je metodologija međusektorskih lokacijskih kvocijenata (Cross-industry location quotient, CILQ). Metoda se temelji na specijalizaciji pojedinih regija u proizvodnji određenih skupina proizvoda, a temeljem čega se nacionalni tehnički koeficijenti prilagođavaju na razini pojedinih regija. U istraživačkom smislu doprinos rada temelji se na nepostojanju empirijske literature koja bi se bavila regionalnom input-output analizom za hrvatsko gospodarstvo. Rezultati rada mogu se koristiti i kao podloga za definiranje izlazne ekonomske strategije usmjerene na oporavak gospodarstva i brži izlazak iz recesije. Najveći multiplikativni učinci i najveći intenzitet regionalne povezanosti uočen je u određenim sektorima prerađivačke industrije, poljoprivredi i građevinarstvu. Ova skupina djelatnosti može se uz određene mjere opreza odvijati na dosadašnji način bez velikih rizika za širenje virusa. Poticanje ovih aktivnosti daje pozitivne rezultate već u kratkom roku, a zbog visokih multiplikativnih učinaka, pozitivni poticaj širi se i na ostale djelatnosti i regije. Osim ovih djelatnosti naglasak treba biti i na unapređivanju sektora zdravstva i sektora informacijsko-komunikacijskih tehnologija, kod kojih su neizravni gospodarski učinci nešto niži, ali koji će biti ključni za nesmetano odvijanje gospodarske aktivnosti u budućem razdoblju. Sektor turizma ima vrlo plitke multiplikatine učinke, ali nadprosječno velik udio isporuka za finalnu potrošnju, a time i utjecaj na prihode državnog proračuna.

This article reviews challenges of monitoring and regulation of military and dual use goods and technologies in Ukraine. These challenges are not new; their different aspects have been analyzed previously by many Ukrainian researchers, such as G. Androshchuk, O. Fradynskyi, I. Anokhin, V. Davydovskyy and more, but all earlier analyses, while looking into theoretical and practical aspects of military and dual use goods and technologies export per se, left aside economic and financial aspects of this problem, which are in the focus of our investigation. The object of the study is the export of military and dual use goods and technologies. The subject of the study is the FinTech tools that can be applied to analysis of export of military and dual use goods and technologies. The aim of the research is to analyze the current situation in export of military and dual use goods and technologies and based on results of analysis to outline the FinTech tools that will be useful to evaluate and regulate gray exports of military and dual use goods and technologies. The methodology of research is based on economic analysis in which we have applied an alternative approach to assessing key indicators. Firstly, we determined government budget military expenditure and then compared it with the scope of relevant exports. Further, we analyzed the black market of military and dual use goods and technologies based on the data obtained from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This analysis demonstrated that official numbers represent only 10% of the total expected amount of military and dual use goods and technologies export; the balance is shared between the domestic black market and gray exports. As result of the research we propose modern FinTech tools, including financial markers and the BlockChain technology, as instruments to detect such gray exports. Financial markers are specific FinTech indicators making banks aware that a transaction involves transfer of military or dual use goods or technologies and therefore requires special attention (to verify whether the company has an appropriate license or whether a license is needed for the transaction etc.) BlockChain is the best solution for tracking the financial marker information since it supports storage of information about the whole transaction chain and analysis of this information on any transaction stage. BlockChain technology can generate information on possible gray exports automatically and chain breaks (where the end user does not typically use or sell military or dual use goods or technologies but is a vendor of conventional goods or technologies).

This paper finds that more internet users as a percentage of total population promote economic growth in Mexico and that the impact exhibited a nonlinear relation and was greater in the initial stage of Internet adoption. In addition, less government budget deficit as a percent of GDP, a higher real stock price, real peso appreciation, a higher real crude oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would enhance economic growth.

This study aims to analyze for factors that cause delays in the absorption of the Bogor City Government's expenditure budget so that a strategy can be formulated to improve the performance of this budget absorption. Searching for variables forming the causal factors is done by using primary data sourced from Dinas Kesehatan and Sekretariat Daerah, based on the researcher's work experience when assigned to the Finance Section and the Planning and Reporting Division of Dinas Kesehatan and Bagian Pengadaan Barang dan Jasa Sekretariat Daerah Kota Bogor for approximately 10 years of the assignment period and library data search. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) is used to look for underlying factors extracted from the factors forming variables. The search foralternative strategies to improve performance of budget absorption was carried out using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The EFA analysis found five main factors causing delays in the absorption of budget expenditure, namely factor in budget planning activities, factor in government regulation and bureaucracy, factor of work conditions, factor influencing financial activities and disbursement of the Government budget, and human resources of the state civil apparatus (ASN). AHP analysis shows that of the five leading sectors of the Regional Apparatus that play a role as key leaders in improving the performance of budget absorption is Sekretariat Daerah. The main obstacle in improving budget absorption is internal and external intervention. The main strategy to correct delays inspending is to improve quality of budget planning and procurement of service goods.

This paper reinterprets the mixed evidence of the relationship and the long-run relationships between the general government budget (GGB) and some macroeconomics variables (current account deficit, fixed investment (FI), gross savings (GS), government consumption (GC) and gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita) in Tunisia using the VAR model. The period of the study runs from 1975 until 2018 with a yearly data. We obtain evidence of fluctuations in current account deficit (CAD) as a response to GGB shocks. But during the end of the period, the shocks of the CAD have a negative effect on the GGB and the two deficits are found to be positively linked. Our results suggest that impulse responses of budget deficit did a weak impact on gross saving of Tunisia, but the one savings strategy has a positive effect on this deficit. On the basis of results published in the empirical literature, the general government deficit increase the fixed investment, but the response of the GGB to FI shocks is weak and almost stable. In addition, fiscal deficit shocks have a positive effect on consumption. Any increase in the GGB to an increase in consumption. GDP per capital’s impulse responses to GGB shocks is characterized by such stable and positive effects. The Granger causality test indicates that causation run from GGB shocks to most macroeconomics variables with the exception of the CAD, implying that variation in general government deficit is explained by increasing public spending and also by these five other variables.Keywords: VAR modeling, Budget Deficit, MacroeconomicsJEL Classifications: C22, E21, H62DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10372

This article discusses how the tax reforms affect the budget and business atmosphere in Uzbekistan. The country has already implemented several tax methods but few of them have made the economy flourish. Yet, recent changes differ from previous ones with these reforms reflecting the experiences of those countries whose economy is highly affected by the tax in a positive way. In order to dramatically decrease the tax burden on companies and individuals, the number of direct taxes has been cut hoping to open the hidden economy in the country. However, the meaning of direct taxes has been moved into indirect ones such as VAT. Below we will do our best to analyze the outcomes of the previous tax reforms and offer some taxation mechanisms which can help the economy of the country.

This study proposes the concept of Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) on the market of active substances used in treatment of HIV and checks the control factors and criteria interconnection and implements Random Forest forecasting model. The new method must help to improve the management decision-making process in the fields of healthcare government budget planning. It has become a prime concern for understanding and comparing of publicly available information with internal market data and the consequences of companies` and government`s actions in choosing the best approach for correct construction of to reduce HIV incidence in Russia. The paper develops the forecasting model of one of the parameters, which has a substantial role in decision-making process. The medication market data in this study represents the cumulative daily concluded contracts, used in treatment of HIV in Russia, the level of HIV incidence (yearly) and federal budget on healthcare (yearly). The proposed approach have more than 82% average accuracy at predicting the sum of medication contract prices at the 3-year time period. The received figures are effective in predicting the factors` behavior in future. It can be used for improved modulation of AHP and consequently, the overall accuracy of the model structure.

Purpose: This study aims to highlight the concept of public budget to become acquainted with the notion of participation. We also try to clarify the role of social organizations in the general budget and Shed light on the role of the State in the disclosure and transparency of public funds. Methodology: Practically, the study depends on a questionnaire prepared statistically to analyze Financial Statements of the General Budget for three frequent years (2015, 2016, and 2017). Main Findings: The aftereffects of the monetary and measurable examination show that there is no straightforwardness and exposure by the legislature during its distribution of the general financial plan of the last and last records. In addition, incomprehensiveness of the financial plan by a proper measure of straightforwardness and divulgence, the Ministry of Finance reports incorporate information and disaggregated information on government consumption, open obligation, and how to cover inability. Application of Study: The best application of this research is to regulate and manage the government's economic resources and public budget, and how to spend and deal with them in appropriate ways in accordance with the regulations and instructions for providing services to the people. Novelty/Originality: The significance of the exploration exists in keeping up the job of individual and the general public and their degree of cooperation in the strategy-making process. In other words, the issue of the examination lies without the cooperation of residents and social associations in the arrangement and execution of the general financial plan.

Using the Keynesian model set out in McDonald (2020), in which downward wage rigidity is supported by worker loss aversion with respect to wages, this article shows that a period of social distancing (SD) can leave a post-SD economy with both stimulatory and depressive effects A loss of productive capacity is stimulating Costs of restarting firms, lower labour productivity when restarted and a desire to restore wealth from debt incurred during the period of SD are depressive If, as seems highly probable, the net effect on economic activity is negative then a fiscal expansion can restore activity To avoid an increased government budget deficit, this expansion would probably require an increased tax rate Reductions in real wages may also be necessary A desire to balance the government budget combined with no increase in the tax rate would be unfortunate, because it would cause a further contraction in activity from its post-SD level

In this paper, the long-run incidence of a tax on pure rent is analyzed in an OLG two-sector small open economy, in which one sector produces a capital good and one sector a consumer good. Contrary to what is obtained in a one-sector closed economy, a land rent tax does not necessarily foster nonhumam wealth accumulation and capital formation. The accommodating scheme for the government budget plays a crucial role for the effects of pure rent taxation. A rent tax stimulates nonhuman wealth if distortionary taxes on wealth or on income from nonland inputs are alleviated. The mechanism spurring capital formation is brought into action, instead, only when the rent tax is matched by a fall in capital taxation or, if the capital sector is capital intensive, by an increase in government spending on the capital good.

This research explains the role of regional governance in the preservation of the Bilih fish population in Lake Singkarak based on Gubenur regulation No 81 year 2017. Research aims to describe the role of local governance, constraints and efforts of local governance. Methods used are qualitative methods. Data is derived from documentation studies, interviews, and observations. Things that are considered in collecting data in the selection of informant among them to the community, community leaders, head of the field of capture and head of PRL and PSDKP and Walinagari. Based on the results of the research conducted in the service can be concluded: first, the role of the Marine Service and fisheries of West Sumatra province in the preservation of Bilih fish populations in the use of Centrum, Putas/poison, the vacuum and mesh that the net eyes are too tightly in Lake Singkarak. Second, the Marine Service and fisheries of West Sumatra province which is seen from external and internal constraints which is a constraint for the government in the preservation of Bilih fish populations in the use of Centrum, Putas/poison, and nets and mesh that the net eyes are too tightly in Lake Singkarak. Third, the efforts undertaken by the local government in stopping the constraints that occur: 1) DKP that conducts coaching to the fishermen community in providing training, awareness, counseling, and socialization of the preservation of the population of Bilih fish in Lake Singkarak; 2) The Government has the purpose of providing the assistance of an environmentally friendly arrest tool to the fishermen who operate the fishing equipment in the lake Salingka; 3) Conduct raids to the fishermen communities that operate the use of Centrum, Putas/poison, the vacuum and nets that the net eye is too tightly in Lake Singkarak; 4) The plan to propose the government budget to the preservation of Bilih fish in Lake Singkarak has not been running in accordance with the role of the Government on the construction and supervision of this still many fishermen people who use the Centrum, Putas/poison, the vacuum and nets that the net is too tightly in Lake Singkarak.

This review describes interactions between monetary and fiscal policies that affect equilibrium price levels and interest rates by critically surveying theories about ( a) optimal anticipated inflation, ( b) optimal unanticipated inflation, and ( c) conditions that secure a nominal anchor in the sense of a unique price level path. We contrast incomplete theories whose inputs are budget-feasible sequences of government-issued bonds and money with complete theories whose inputs are bond/money strategies described as sequences of functions that map time t histories into time t government actions. We cite historical episodes that confirm the theoretical insight that lines of authority between a Treasury and a central bank can be ambiguous, obscure, and fragile.

The COVID-19 pandemic induces the worst economic downturn since the Second World War, requiring governments to design large-scale recovery plans to overcome this crisis. This paper quantitatively assesses the potential of government investments in eco-friendly construction projects to boost the economy and simultaneously realise environmental gains through reduced energy consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model that examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis in a small open economy (Belgium). Subsequently, the impact of the proposed policy is assessed through comparative analysis for macroeconomic parameters as well as CO2 equivalent emissions for four scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic damages economies considerably, however, the reduction in emissions is less than proportionate. Still, well-designed public policies can reverse this trend, achieving both economic growth and a disproportionally large decrease in emissions. Moreover, the positive effect of such a decoupling policy on GDP is even stronger during the pandemic than compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. This is the result of a targeted, investment-induced green transition towards low energy-intensive economic activities. Finally, this paper describes how the net effect on the government budget is positive through the indirect gains of the economic uptake. ispartof: ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS vol:76 issue:4 pages:731-750 ispartof: location:Netherlands status: published

This study aimed at knowing the effect of government budget on education, health, and infrastructure sector toward poverty level in Lombok Timur, both partially and simultaneously. This study was quantitative descriptive study. The data of this study was the data of government budget on education, health, infrastructure, and the poverty level in Lombok Timur 2010 - 2018 periods. The data of this study was secondary data that gained from literature study both using book, journal, and research, and the data of regional committee of central statistics. The technique of data analysis of this study was used regression-linear-fold analysis by using SPSS. The result showed that partially the government budget on education health, and on infrastructure sector take effect significantly toward poverty level in Lombok Timur, it proved by the significance score on each variable showed t-account was x1 0.026, x2 was 0.001, and x3 was 0.025. It showed that the government budget increment in Lombok Timur Region toward each variables including education, health, and infrastructure sector take effect toward the decreasing of poverty level in Lombok Timur during study periods.

A new public project usually provides economic benefits to property owners. In general, a delay caused by a government budget shortage proportionally reduces the future cash flow of the private developer potentially benefitted from a new public project. Based on that eventuality, this study examines a mechanism of willingness to pay, which asks private developers to voluntarily participate in sharing the budget shortage. This participation process is investigated by applying system dynamics, which demonstrate several causal loops, such as between the delay cause and the reaction of the private developer. In spite of difficulty in predicting the actual effect of this idea due to its conceptual origin, this innovative approach can contribute to real-world exigencies in two ways: the provision of background for research on the on-time completion of public projects via private developer cost-sharing participation and the illustration of an alternative that minimizes private developers’ future revenue deduction caused by delays. First published online 23 June 2020

The aim of this article is to test the possibility of a more efficient allocation of resources using market tools when proposing the government budget. The tool is the distribution of ownership rights when designing individual chapters of the budget at the specific stage of the government budget finalisation. The assumption is that the exchange of ownership rights between the individual chapters would lead to a more efficient allocation of resources than mere negotiation. The precondition is the correct setting for such negotiation. For this reason, the article uses an economic experiment in which three budget chapters of expenditure (industry, education, transport) can exchange ownership rights with allocated funds for the following areas: salary expenditure, investment, current expenditure. The design of the experiment is based on a review of relevant studies and literature; illustrative data used in the experiment correspond to the current reality. The article shows these innovative possibilities based on the conducted experiments where the roles were divided between the group of participants representing the individual ministries while the needs and possibilities of the ministries to exchange resources were defined within a set framework of the experiment rules and using the government budget of the Czech Republic for 2020 as the example. The article also implies the possible applications of this method. This method is generally applicable under the proper method design.

This study empirically investigates the “relative tax gap hypothesis,” which posits that the greater the size of the relative tax gap, the greater the degree to which the U.S. Treasury must borrow from domestic and/or other credit markets and hence the higher the ex ante real interest rate yield on the Bellwether 30 year U.S. Treasury bond. The study uses the most current data available for computing what is referred to here as the “relative tax gap,” which is the ratio of the aggregate tax gap (the loss in federal income tax revenue resulting from personal income tax evasion) to the GDP level. For each year of the study period, the nominal value of the tax gap is scaled by the nominal GDP level and expressed as a percentage. The study period runs from 1982 through 2016, reflecting data availability for all of the variables. The estimation results provide strong support for the hypothesis. In addition, in separate estimations, evidence is provided that the relative tax gap also acts to elevate the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds. It logically follows, then, that to the extent that a greater relative tax gap leads to higher ex ante real interest rates, it may contribute to the crowding out of corporate investment in new plant equipment associated heretofore with government budget deficits per se.

The fiscal effects of a hypothetical temporary reduction in gross wages financed by the general government budget are “relatively” modest (between 0.38 and 1.22% of GDP), but the consequences due to the impact on key economic indicators (GDP, budget revenue, and indirectly, the deficit and public debt) can be large and lasting. However, the current situation is a threat to the economy and public finances, but at the same time an opportunity for urgently needed structural reforms, selective and well-thought-out cuts, and the reorganisation and optimisation of the Croatian public sector.

Bu çalışmada, devlet bütçe gelir ve gider tahminleri ile gerçekleşmeleri arasındaki sapmalar doğrultusunda politik istikrarsızlık ile bütçenin tutarlık ilkesi arasındaki ilişkinin tespiti amaçlanmıştır. Bir başka ifade ile çalışmada, bütçe dokümanlarında yer alan hedeflerin tutarlılığı, performans denetimi ve politik istikrarsızlığın belirleyicileri üzerinden bütçeye etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Konu çerçevesinde belirlenen değişkenler ile yapılan analizde, Türkiye’de 1984-2018 dönemine ait veriler ile ARDL yöntemi kullanılarak, politik istikrarsızlığın bütçe tahminlerini ve gerçekleşmelerini ne ölçüde etkilediği değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca 2006 yılında gerçekleştirilen bütçe sistemindeki yapısal değişimin bütçe hedeflerine ulaşma noktasında olumlu etki yarattığı bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, gelecekteki tahmin tutarlığını sağlamak ve politik istikrarsızlığın yol açabileceği sorunları iyileştirmeye yönelik çözüm önerileri geliştirilmiştir., In this study, it is aimed to determine the relationship between the political instability and the consistency of the budget in line with the deviations between the government budget revenue and expenditure estimates and their realizations. In other words, the study evaluated the consistency of the objectives in the budget documents, the performance audit and the effects of the political instability on the budget. In the analysis performed with the variables identified in the framework of the subject in Turkey by using the ARDL method with data for the 1984-2018 period, the budget estimates and the realization of political instability assessed to what extent the effects. In addition, it was found that the structural change in the budget system realized in 2006 had a positive effect on the achievement of budget targets. As a result of this study, solutions for improving the consistency of forecasting and problems that may be caused by political instability were developed.

This study examines the effect of government budget announcement on stock return of selected companies listed at Nepal Stock Exchange. For this purpose, secondary data of 48 companies are used over the study period from 5th November 2018 to 30th June 2019 and analyzed using the event study methodology with an estimation period of 120 days and event window of 41 days. The market model has been used to predict expected stock returns and use of regression technique helps to find the constant parameters of the regression equation. Calculations of AAR and CAAR are done to make sense of the aggregate effect of the government budget announcement on stock returns. Student’s t-statistics of AAR and CAAR have provided the evidence that there is a positive effect of government budget announcement on stock returns of selected companies in Nepal.