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This study assessed the effects of scaling-up Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) on the quality of care received by sick children in 10 districts in Uganda. Health workers trained in IMCI were found to deliver significantly better care than health workers who had not yet been trained, but absolute levels of service quality remained low. Achieving training coverage alone is not sufficient as a strategy to improve and sustain care quality. Other factors including training quality, effective supervision, availability of essential drugs, vaccines and equipment, and the policy context are also important and must be included in child survival policies and plans

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Objective. To determine the prevalence of microvascular complications in South African black and Indian patients with long-duration diabetes mellitus (DM).Design. A retrospective analysis was undertaken of clinical records of 219 OM patients (132 black, 87 Indian) with longduration OM (over 10 years) attending a diabetes clinic in Durban. Data recorded on each subject included demographic details (age, gender, ethnic group, type of diabetes, age of onset and duration of diabetes), presence of retinopathy, markers of nephropathy and biochemical variables. The prevalence of complications and the clinical and biochemical parameters were evaluated for type 1 and type 2 diabetes and for each ethnic group.Results. Of the 219 patients, 47 had type 1 OM (36 blacks, 11 Indians) and 172 were classified as type 2 OM (96 blacks, 76 Indians). The mean age of onset of OM wa later in blacks than Indians, both for type 1 (P < 0.05) and type 2 OM (P < 0.01). In patients with type 1 OM, the prevalence of retinopathy was 53.2% (blacks 55.6%, Indians 45.5%), persistent proteinuria was found in 23.4% (blacks 25%, Indians 18.2%) and hypertension in 34%. 0 ethnic difference was found except for the prevalence of hyperten ion which was higher in blacks than Indians (41.7% v. 9.1%, P < 0.5). Onset of retinopathy from time of diabetes diagno is occurred earlier in blacks than Indians (13.0 ± 4.6 yrs v. 18.0 ± 4.6 yrs, P < 0.05). For the type 2 DM group, retinopathy was found in 64.5% (black v. Indian 68.8 v. 59.2%) and per istent proteinuria in 25% (black v. Indian 30.2 v. 1 .4%). Hypertension wa observed in 68% and wa more prevalent in blacks (84.4 v. 47.,*%, P < 0.01) There was an earlier onset of retinopathy (P < 0,05) and hypertension (P < 0.01) from time of diabetes diagnosis in blacks than Indians. In the type 1 OM group retinopathy was a sociated with a ignificantly longer duration of diabetes (P < 0.05) and higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1) (P < 0.05). For type 2 DM subjects there was a significant association between retinopathy and longer duration of diabetes (P < 0.05) and higher systolic blood pressure (P < 0.05).Conclusion. 1his study has shown that there is a high prevalence of microvascular complications in South African patients with long-duration diabetes mellitus.

The prevalence of HIV in West Africa is lower than elsewhere in Africa but Gabon has one of the highest rates of HIV in that region. Gabon has a small population and a high per capita gross domestic product making it an ideal place to carry out a programme of early treatment for HIV. The effectiveness, availability and affordability of triple combination therapy make it possible to contemplate ending AIDS deaths and HIV transmission in the short term and HIV prevalence in the long term. Here we consider what would have happened in Gabon without the development of potent anti-retroviral therapy (ART), the impact that the current roll-out of ART has had on HIV, and what might be possible if early treatment with ART becomes available to all. We fit a dynamic transmission model to trends in the adult prevalence of HIV and infer trends in incidence, mortality and the impact of ART. The availability of ART has reduced the prevalence of HIV among adults not on ART from 4.2% to 2.9%, annual incidence from 0.43% to 0.27%, and the proportion of adults dying from AIDS illnesses each year from 0.36% to 0.13% saving the lives of 2.3 thousand people in 2013 alone. The provision of ART has been highly cost effective saving the country at least $18 million up to 2013., arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1311.1815, arXiv:1401.6430

South Africa has more people infected with HIV but, by providing access to anti-retroviral therapy (ART), has kept more people alive than any other country. The effectiveness, availability and affordability of potent anti-retroviral therapy (ART) make it possible to contemplate ending the epidemic of HIV/AIDS. We consider what would have happened without ART, the impact of the current roll-out of ART, what might be possible if early treatment becomes available to all, and what could have happened if ART had been provided much earlier in the epidemic. In 2013 the provision of ART has reduced the prevalence of HIV from an estimated 15% to 9% among adults not on ART, the annual incidence from 2% to 0.9%, and the AIDS related deaths from 0.9% to 0.3% p.a. saving 1.5 million lives and USD727M. Regular testing and universal access to ART could reduce the prevalence among adults not on ART in 2023 to 0.06%, annual incidence to 0.05%, and eliminate AIDS deaths. Cumulative costs between 2013 ands 2023 would increase by USD692M only 4% of the total cost of USD17Bn. If a universal testing and early treatment had started in 1998 the prevalence of HIV among adults not on ART in 2013 would have fallen to 0.03%, annual incidence to 0.03%, and saved 2.5 million lives. The cost up to 2013 would have increased by USD18Bn but this would have been cost effective at US$7,200 per life saved. Future surveys of HIV among women attending ante-natal clinics should include testing women for the presence of anti-retroviral drugs, measuring their viral loads, and using appropriate assays for estimating HIV incidence. These data would make it possible to develop better and more reliable estimates of the current state of the epidemic, the success of the current ART programme, levels of viral load suppression for those on ART and the incidence of infection.

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a new 90-90-90 global target for the coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to be reached by 2020. This would mean that 90% of all people infected with HIV know their status, 90% of them are on ART and 90% of them will have full viral load suppression. Here we first estimate the case reproduction number, R0, for countries in sub-Saharan Africa and for India using data on the rate at which the prevalence of HIV increased at the start of the epidemic and the life expectancy of people living with HIV who are not on ART. R0 determines the magnitude of the control problem, that is to say, the extent to which transmission must be reduced to eliminate HIV. We show that in sub-Saharan Africa the median value of R0 is 4.6 and in all but five countries R0 is less than 6.3. If the 90-90-90 target is reached, 73% of all those living with HIV will have full viral load suppression. If this is maintained it should guarantee elimination in 70% of all countries in sub-Saharan Africa and will reduce R0 to less than 2 in the remaining 12 countries, making elimination easy to achieve by increasing the availability of other high impact methods of prevention., We have updated the previous version for two reasons. First, we have given a better approximation for the estimation of R0 from epidemic doubling times. Second, we have added comments on the new UNAIDS '90-90-90' strategy which puts the results into a broader context

The concentration of CD4 T-lymphocytes (CD4 count), in a person's plasma is widely used to decide when to start HIV-positive people on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and to predict the impact of ART on the future course of HIV and tuberculosis (TB). However, CD4 cell-counts vary widely within and among populations and depend on many factors besides HIV-infection. The way in which CD4 counts decline over the course of HIV infection is neither well understood nor widely agreed. We review what is known about CD4 counts in relation to HIV and TB and discuss areas in which more research is needed to build a consensus on how to interpret and use CD4 counts in clinical practice and to develop a better understanding of the dynamics and control of HIV and HIV-related TB., Comment: 6 pages. Updated details of the meeting at which this material was first presented in the footnote on page 1

Anti-retroviral drugs can reduce the infectiousness of people living with HIV by about 96%--treatment as prevention or TasP--and can reduce the risk of being infected by an HIV positive person by about 70%--pre-exposure prophylaxis or PrEP--raising the prospect of using anti-retroviral drugs to stop the epidemic of HIV. The question as to which is more effective, more affordable and more cost effective, and under what conditions, continues to be debated in the scientific literature. Here we compare TasP and PreP in order to determine the conditions under which each strategy is favourable. This analysis suggests that where the incidence of HIV is less than 5% or the risk-reduction under PrEP is less than 50%, TasP is favoured over PrEP; otherwise PrEP is favoured over TasP. The potential for using PreP should therefore be restricted to those among whom the annual incidence of HIV is greater than 5% and TasP reduces transmission by more than 50%. PreP should be considered for commercial sex workers, young women aged about 20 to 25 years, men-who-have-sex with men, or intravenous drug users, but only where the incidence of HIV is high., Comment: 4 pages

OBJECTIVE: An increasing number of countries have been estimating the distribution of new adult HIV infections by modes of transmission (MOT) to help prioritise prevention efforts. We compare results from studies conducted between 2008 and 2012 and discuss their use for planning and responding to the HIV epidemic. METHODS: The UNAIDS recommended MOT model helps countries to estimate the proportion of new HIV infections that occur through key transmission modes including sex work, injecting drug use (IDU), men having sex with men (MSM), multiple sexual partnerships, stable relationships and medical interventions. The model typically forms part of a country-led process that includes a comprehensive review of epidemiological data. Recent revisions to the model are described. RESULTS: Modelling results from 25 countries show large variation between and within regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, new infections occur largely in the general heterosexual population because of multiple partnerships or in stable discordant relationships, while sex work contributes significantly to new infections in West Africa. IDU and sex work are the main contributors to new infections in the Middle East and North Africa, with MSM the main contributor in Latin America. Patterns vary substantially between countries in Eastern Europe and Asia in terms of the relative contribution of sex work, MSM, IDU and spousal transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The MOT modelling results, comprehensive review and critical assessment of data in a country can contribute to a more strategically focused HIV response. To strengthen this type of research, improved epidemiological and behavioural data by risk population are needed.

The concentration of CD4 T-lymphocytes (CD4 count), in a person's plasma is widely used to decide when to start HIV-positive people on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and to predict the impact of ART on the future course of HIV and tuberculosis (TB). However, CD4 cell-counts vary widely within and among populations and depend on many factors besides HIV-infection. The way in which CD4 counts decline over the course of HIV infection is neither well understood nor widely agreed. We review what is known about CD4 counts in relation to HIV and TB and discuss areas in which more research is needed to build a consensus on how to interpret and use CD4 counts in clinical practice and to develop a better understanding of the dynamics and control of HIV and HIV-related TB., 6 pages. Updated details of the meeting at which this material was first presented in the footnote on page 1

If people at risk of HIV infection are tested annually and started on treatment as soon as they are found to be HIV-positive it should be possible to reduce the case reproduction number for HIV to less than one, eliminate transmission and end the epidemic. If this is to be done it is essential to know if it would be affordable, and cost effective. Here we show that in all but eleven countries of the world it is affordable by those countries, that in these eleven countries it is affordable for the international community, and in all countries it is highly cost-effective., Comment: Several typographical errors have been corrected. Main change is the addition of data on the cost of military spending in each country and a comparison with the cost of universal ART

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir gel, an antiretroviral-based vaginal microbicide, reduced HIV acquisition by 39% in women in a recent randomized controlled clinical trial in South Africa. METHODS: To inform policy, we used a dynamical model of HIV transmission, calibrated to the epidemic in South Africa, to determine the population-level impact of this microbicide on HIV incidence, prevalence, and deaths and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: If women use tenofovir gel in 80% or more of sexual encounters (high coverage), it could avert 2.33 (0.12 to 4.63) million new infections and save 1.30 (0.07 to 2.42) million lives and if used in 25% of sexual encounters (low coverage), it could avert 0.50 (0.04 to 0.77) million new infections and save 0.29 (0.02 to 0.44) million deaths, over the next 20 years. At US $0.50 per application, the cost per infection averted at low coverage is US $2392 (US $562 to US $4222) and the cost per disability-adjusted life year saved is US $104 (US $27 to US $181); at high coverage the costs are about 30% less. CONCLUSIONS: Over 20 years, the use of tenofovir gel in South Africa could avert up to 2 million new infections and 1 million AIDS deaths. Even with low rates of gel use, it is highly cost-effective and compares favorably with other control methods. This female-controlled prevention method could have a significant impact on the epidemic of HIV in South Africa. Programs should aim to achieve gel use in more than 25% of sexual encounters to significantly alter the course of the epidemic.

In several countries in southern Africa, including South Africa, the prevalence of HIV remains stubbornly high in spite of considerable efforts to reduce transmission and to provide anti-retroviral therapy (ART). It is important to know the extent to which the high prevalence of HIV reflects the increasing number of people on ART in which case the prevalence of those not on ART may be falling. Unfortunately, direct measures of the proportion of HIV-positive people who are on ART are lacking in most countries and we need to use dynamical models to estimate the impact of ART on the prevalence of HIV. In this paper we show that the current level of ART provision in South Africa has probably reduced the prevalence of HIV among those not on ART by 1.9 million, averted 259 thousand new infections and 428 thousand deaths., Comment: Two typographical errors have been corrected. Two lines from the bottom of page 1 '2010' has been replaced by '2012'. In the fourth line of the discussion 'over the next twenty years' has been replaced by 'up to 2020'

In people infected with HIV the RNA viral load is a good predictor of the rate of loss of CD4 cells at a population level but there is still great variability in the rate of decline of CD4 cells among individuals. Here we show that the pre-infection distribution of CD4 cell counts and the distribution of survival times together account for 87% of the variability in the observed rate of decline of CD4 cells among individuals. The challenge is to understand the variation in CD4 levels, among populations and individuals, and to establish the determinants of survival of which viral load may be the most important., Two pages with one figure

n this age of molecular biology, The healthcare industry, politicians and the community at large are trying to find ‘magic bullet’ drugs and vaccines to conquer disease. Although smallpox has been eradicated and polio may soon be a scourge of the past, many pathogens replicate rapidly and mutate prodigiously, enabling them to evolve ways to circumvent our immune systems, as well as our drugs and vaccines. To fight and win the war against new emerging infections such as HIV/AIDS, TB and now SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), it is important to understand the temporal and spatial dynamics of the pathogens in human and, in some cases, animal reservoirs or vector populations. It is also necessary to understand the complex web of socio-economic factors pertinent to controlling the spread of disease, so that feasible, affordable and, most importantly, effective public-health policies can be devised and implemented.