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Human behaviour is of profound significance in shaping pathways towards sustainability. Yet, the approach to understanding human behaviour in many fields remains reliant on overly simplistic models. For a better understanding of the interface between human behaviour and sustainability, we take work in behavioural economics and cognitive psychology as a starting point, but argue for an expansion of this work by adopting a more dynamic and systemic understanding of human behaviour, that is, as part of complex adaptive systems. A complex adaptive systems approach allows us to capture behaviour as ‘enculturated’ and ‘enearthed’, co-evolving with socio–cultural and biophysical contexts. Connecting human behaviour and context through a complex adaptive systems lens is critical to inform environmental governance and management for sustainability, and ultimately to better understand the dynamics of the Anthropocene itself. To understand and address sustainability problems, a complex model of human behaviour is proposed, one that co-evolves with their context, as opposed to simpler models.

While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked-in debates are often unnecessarily polarized and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked-in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social-ecological systems in general. We identified five features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked-in debates: 1) The strongly context dependent behaviour of ecological systems. 2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. 3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. 4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which features more detailed species interactions, integrating evolution and dispersal. We include species interactions within and between trophic levels, and additionally, we incorporate the feature that species’ interspecific competition might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. Our modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, our trait-based perspective reveals a strong positive relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Temperature-dependent competition consistently results both in higher trait variation and more responsive communities to altered climatic conditions. Our study demonstrates the importance of species interactions in an eco-evolutionary setting, further expanding our knowledge of the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes., Understanding the dynamics of species interactions can help predict community responses to climate change. A spatially explicit model finds that species interactions and competition mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change, and that temperature-dependent competition makes communities more variable and responsive to changing climates.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which integrates evolution, dispersal, and species interactions within and between trophic levels. This allows us to analyze how these processes interact to shape species- and community-level dynamics under climate change. Additionally, we incorporate the heretofore unexplored feature that species interactions themselves might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. The new modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two new key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on global biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, using a trait-based perspective, we found a strong negative relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Communities resulting from different ecological interaction structures form distinct clusters along this relationship, but varying species’ abilities to disperse and adapt to new temperatures leave it unaffected.

Climate change is altering the structure and functioning of communities1. Trait-based approaches are powerful predictive tools that allow consideration of changes in structure and functioning simultaneously2, 3. The realised biomass-weighted trait distribution of a community rests on the ecophysiology of individuals, but integrates local species interactions and spatial dynamics that feed back to ecosystem functioning. Consider a response trait that determines species performance (e.g. growth rate) as a function of an environmental variable (e.g. temperature). The change in this response trait’s distribution following directional environmental change integrates all factors contributing to the community’s response and directly reflects the community’s response capacity3.Here we introduce the average regional community trait-lag (TLMC) as a novel measure of whole-metacommunity response to warming. We show that functional compensation (shifts in resident species relative abundances) confers initial response capacity to communities by reducing and delaying the initial development of a trait-lag. Metacommunity adaptive capacity in the long-term, however, was dependent on dispersal and species tracking of their climate niche by incremental traversal of the landscape. With increasing inter-patch distances, network properties of the functional connectivity network became increasingly more important, and may guide prioritisation of habitat for conservation.

Non-technical abstract Individual organisms on land and in the ocean sequester massive amounts of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Yet the role of ecosystems as a whole in modulating this uptake of carbon is less clear. Here, we study several different mechanisms by which climate change and ecosystems could interact. We show that climate change could cause changes in ecosystems that reduce their capacity to take up carbon, further accelerating climate change. More research on – and better governance of – interactions between climate change and ecosystems is urgently required.

1. Functional traits mechanistically capture plant responses to environmental gradients as well as plant effects on ecosystem functioning. Yet most trait-based theory stems from terrestrial systems ...

There is growing concern over tipping points arising in ecosystems because of the crossing of environmental thresholds. Tipping points lead to abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states, potentially incurring high societal costs. Trait variation in populations is central to the biotic feedbacks that maintain alternative ecosystem states, as they govern the responses of populations to environmental change that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem states. However, we know little about how evolutionary changes in trait distributions over time affect the occurrence of tipping points and even less about how big-scale ecological shifts reciprocally interact with trait dynamics. We argue that interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes should be taken into account in order to understand the balance of feedbacks governing tipping points in nature. ispartof: NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION vol:3 issue:3 pages:355-362 ispartof: location:England status: published

The presence of a multitude of bioactive organic pollutants collectively classified as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in freshwaters is of concern, considering that ecological assessments of their potential impacts on natural systems are still scarce. In this field experiment we tested whether a single pulse exposure to a mixture of 12 pharmaceuticals and personal care products, which are commonly found in European inland waters, can influence the size distributions of natural lake phytoplankton communities. Size is one of the most influential determinants of community structure and functioning, particularly in planktonic communities and food webs. Using an in-situ microcosm approach, phytoplankton communities in two lakes with different nutrient levels (mesotrophic and eutrophic) were exposed to a concentration gradient of the PPCPs mixture at five levels. We tested whether sub-lethal PPCPs doses affect the scaling of organisms' abundances with their size, and the slope of these size spectra, which describe changes in the abundances of small relative to large phytoplankton. Our results showed that a large proportion (approximately 80%) of the dataset followed a power-law distribution, thus suggesting evidence of scale invariance of abundances, as expected in steady state ecosystems. PPCPs were however found to induce significant changes in the size spectra and community structure of natural phytoplankton assemblages. The two highest treatment levels of PPCPs were associated with decreased abundance of the most dominant size class (nano-phytoplankton: 2–5 μm), leading to a flattening of the size spectra slope. These results suggest that a pulse exposure to PPCPs induce changes that potentially lead to unsteady ecosystem states and cascading effects in the aquatic food webs, by favoring larger non-edible algae at the expense of small edible species. We propose higher susceptibility due to higher surface to volume ratio in small species as the likely cause of these structural changes., Science of The Total Environment, 683, ISSN:0048-9697, ISSN:1879-1026

Freshwaters are increasingly exposed to complex mixtures of pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) from municipal wastewater, which are known to alter freshwater communities’ structure and functioning. However, their interaction with other disturbances and whether their combined effects can impact ecological resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to tolerate disturbances without altering the system's original structure and processes) remain unexplored. Using in situ mesocosms in 2 lakes with different nutrient levels (mesotrophic and eutrophic), we assessed whether a pulse exposure to sublethal concentrations of 12 PPCPs affects the ecological resilience of natural phytoplankton communities that experienced an abrupt environmental change involving the destabilization of the water column through mixing. Such mixing events are predicted to increase as the effects of climate change unfold, leading to more frequent storms, which disrupt stratification in lakes and force communities to restructure. We assessed their combined effects on community metrics (biomass, species richness, and composition) and their relative resilience using 4 indicators (cross‐scale, within‐scale, aggregation length, and gap length), inferred from phytoplankton communities by discontinuity analysis. The mixing disturbance alone had negligible effects on the community metrics, but when combined with chemical contaminants significant changes were measured: reducing total biomass, species richness, and altered community composition of phytoplankton. Once these changes occurred, they persisted until the end of the experiment (day 20), when the communities’ structures from the 2 highest exposure levels diverged from the controls. The resilience indicators were not affected by PPCPs but differed significantly between lakes, with lower resilience found in the eutrophic lake. Thus, PPCPs can significantly alter community structures and reinforce mechanisms that maintain ecosystems in a “degraded state.” Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:2197–2208. © 2019 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC., Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 38 (10), ISSN:0277-2248, ISSN:1029-0486, ISSN:0092-9867

Paper contact with cynthia festin: festin@iiasa.ac.at Agraïments: The research leading to these results has received funding from the Stordalen Foundation via the Planetary Boundary Research Network (PB.net), the Earth League's EarthDoc programme, the Leibniz Association (project DOMINOES), Project Grant 2014-589 from the Swedish Research Council Formas, and a core grant to the Stockholm Resilience Centre by Mistra. We thank Malin Ödalen for her comments on the manuscript. Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we construct a stylized global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against complex ESMs, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon-cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. We use our results to analytically study the relative strengths of different climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and how they may change in the future, as well as to compare different feedback formalisms. Simple models such as that developed here also provide 'workbenches' for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the Planetary Boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in complex ESMs.

Adaptive management incorporates learning-by-doing (LBD) in order to capture learning and knowledge generation processes, crucial for sustainable resource use in the presence of uncertainty and environmental change. By contrast, an optimization approach to management identifies the most efficient exploitation strategy by postulating an absolute understanding of the resource dynamics and its inherent uncertainties. Here, we study the potential and limitations of LBD in achieving optimal management by undertaking an analysis using a simple growth model as a benchmark for evaluating the performance of an agent equipped with a 'state-of-the-art' learning algorithm. The agent possesses no a priori knowledge about the resource dynamics, and learns management solely by resource interaction. We show that for a logistic growth function the agent can achieve 90% efficiency compared to the optimal control solution, whereas when a threshold (tipping point) is introduced, efficiency drops to 65%. Thus, our study supports the effectiveness of the LED approach. However, when a threshold is introduced efficiency decreases as experimentation may cause resource collapse. Further, the study proposes that: an appropriate amount of experimentation, high valuation of future stocks (discounting) and, a modest rate of adapting to new knowledge, will likely enhance the effectiveness of LBD as a management strategy. AuthorCount:2

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the exploration of non-convex dynamics in coupled human-nature systems. We study welfare issues associated with the management of a human-nature complex adaptive system with a threshold and a stochastic driver. We exemplify with a specific system where we link changes in the number and diversity of birds to the abundance of a pest (insects) that causes damages to goods and services valuable to human beings. We present a method that simplifies the analysis and helps us discuss different management models that combine direct and indirect controls of the pest. This allows us to show that 1) the choice of control method depends in a highly non-linear way on biodiversity characteristics and 2) the socially optimal outcome may not be reachable using price instruments. Hence the price vs. quantity debate needs to be revisited using a complex adaptive system lens.

(2006). Quick Fixes for the Environment: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development: Vol. 48, No. 10, pp. 20-27.

In this study we analyse with an experiment how the spatial area from which the species pool is sampled, i.e. local vs regional, can have functional consequences for ecosystem processes and structure. Particularly, we analysed how major stocks and processes respond to a change in basal productivity and how this depends on the source of the species pool. The experimental microcosms used in this experiment were developed by inoculating nutrient solution with samples of rockpool sediment containing resting stages. Here we show that communities developed from sediment samples of single origin (local communities) exhibit important differences in ecosystem structure and their response to a productivity gradient compared to systems developed from mixed samples of multiple and spatially dispersed origin (regional communities). The difference between local and regional communities was most pronounced for zooplankton which had much lower abundances in the local communities compared to the regional communities resulting in cascading effects on phytoplankton. We demonstrate that the spatial extend from which the species pool is sampled can affect ecosystem structure and functioning comparable in magnitude to changes in the basal productivity of the system. We discuss with a conceptual model how the regional species pool is important for sustaining diversity in functional groups, and how higher trophic levels are more sensitive to changes in the regional species pool.

We extend the recently proposed graph-theoretical landscape perspective by applying some network-centric methods mainly developed in the social sciences. The methods we propose are suitable to (1) identify individual habitat patches that are disproportionally high in importance in preserving the ability of organisms to traverse the fragmented landscape, and (2) find internally well-connected compartments of habitat patches that contribute to a spatial compartmentalization of species populations. We demonstrate the utility of these methods using an agricultural landscape with scattered dry-forest patches in southern Madagascar, inhabited by the ring-tailed lemur, Lemur catta. We suggest that these methods are particularly suitable in landscapes where species’ traversability is not fully inhibited by fragmentation, but merely limited. These methods are potentially highly relevant in studying spatial aspects of resilience and in the design of natural reserves.

▪ Abstract We explore the social dimension that enables adaptive ecosystem-based management. The review concentrates on experiences of adaptive governance of social-ecological systems during periods of abrupt change (crisis) and investigates social sources of renewal and reorganization. Such governance connects individuals, organizations, agencies, and institutions at multiple organizational levels. Key persons provide leadership, trust, vision, meaning, and they help transform management organizations toward a learning environment. Adaptive governance systems often self-organize as social networks with teams and actor groups that draw on various knowledge systems and experiences for the development of a common understanding and policies. The emergence of “bridging organizations” seem to lower the costs of collaboration and conflict resolution, and enabling legislation and governmental policies can support self-organization while framing creativity for adaptive comanagement efforts. A resilient social-ecological system may make use of crisis as an opportunity to transform into a more desired state.

One of the more intriguing and challenging developments in ecology and in limnology and oceanography is the expansion of the temporal and spatial scales that are being addressed by current work. Researchers are realizing that individual communities and ecosystems are not isolated from each other but rather that they are connected by exchanges of individuals (through dispersal) and materials (through spatial fluxes). From a conceptual perspective, there is a need to develop theories and hypotheses about the roles of these exchanges on different community and ecosystem attributes. Here we focus on the concept of metacommunities, to address how plankton communities are structured and how this may generate patterns of variation in planktonic ecosystems. Our premise is that planktonic systems can be understood in the framework of metacommunities and that the regulation of these metacommunities alter how they work as ‘‘complex adaptive systems.’’ We hypothesize that connectivity through dispersal of local communities that are embedded in aquatic metacommunities show a range of dynamic behaviors related to their capacity to respond adaptively to environmental change. Much work in limnetic ecosystems has shown the rich array of community and ecosystem processes that regulate ponds, lakes, and larger bodies of water such as large lakes, seas, and oceans. This work has shown that limnetic ecosystems as a whole respond strongly to joint effects of abiotic resources (bottom-up effects) and of factors affecting

Biological diversity appears to enhance the resilience of desirable ecosystem states, which is required to secure the production of essential ecosystem services. The diversity of responses to environmental change among species contributing to the same ecosystem function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem renewal and reorganization following change. Here we present examples of response diversity from both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and across temporal and spatial scales. Response diversity provides adaptive capacity in a world of complex systems, uncertainty, and human-dominated environments. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecosystem management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation.

Reduction in body size has been proposed as a universal response of organisms, both to warming and to decreased salinity. However, it is still controversial if size reduction is caused by temperature or salinity on their own, or if other factors interfere as well. We used natural benthic diatom communities to explore how “body size” (cells and colonies) and motility change along temperature (2–26°C) and salinity (0.5–7.8) gradients in the brackish Baltic Sea. Fourth-corner analysis confirmed that small cell and colony sizes were associated with high temperature in summer. Average community cell volume decreased linearly with 2.2% per °C. However, cells were larger with artificial warming when nutrient concentrations were high in the cold season. Average community cell volume increased by 5.2% per °C of artificial warming from 0 to 8.5°C and simultaneously there was a selection for motility, which probably helped to optimize growth rates by trade-offs between nutrient supply and irradiation. Along the Baltic Sea salinity gradient cell size decreased with decreasing salinity, apparently mediated by nutrient stoichiometry. Altogether, our results suggest that climate change in this century may polarize seasonality by creating two new niches, with elevated temperature at high nutrient concentrations in the cold season (increasing cell size) and elevated temperature at low nutrient concentrations in the warm season (decreasing cell size). Higher temperature in summer and lower salinity by increased land-runoff are expected to decrease the average cell size of primary producers, which is likely to affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels.

Biodiversity plays a vital role for ecosystem functioning in a changing environment. Yet theoretical approaches that incorporate diversity into classical ecosystem theory do not provide a general dynamic theory based on mechanistic principles. In this paper, we suggest that approaches developed for quantitative genetics can be extended to ecosystem functioning by modeling the means and variances of phenotypes within a group of species. We present a framework that suggests that phenotypic variance within functional groups is linearly related to their ability to respond to environmental changes. As a result, the long-term productivity for a group of species with high phenotypic variance may be higher than for the best single species, even though high phenotypic variance decreases productivity in the short term, because suboptimal species are present. In addition, we find that in the case of accelerating environmental change, species succession in a changing environment may become discontinuous. Our work suggests that this phenomenon is related to diversity as well as to the environmental disturbance regime, both of which are affected by anthropogenic activities. By introducing new techniques for modeling the aggregate behavior of groups of species, the present approach may provide a new avenue for ecosystem analysis.

In aquaculture, the benefit of autotrophic production within land-based ponds for fish production has long been recognized. In cage culture, organisms growing on the cage net have so far only been considered as a problem. This study investigated the potential production of periphyton on cage nets used in a tropical mixed tilapia culture of Oreochromis mortimeri (Trewavas), Tilapia rendalli (Boulenger) and Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus) in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. The production of periphyton was assessed experimentally and compared with the energy demand of the caged fish. The tilapias were found to graze intensively on the net, and the primary production of periphyton on the cage net was ≈ 1% relative to the energy demands of the fish.

I present a selected review of ecological concepts that are important for understanding how nature’s services are linked to their support system, the ecosystem. The paper is mainly aimed at an audience of non-biologists to facilitate cooperation among disciplines. A list of services compiled from the literature is classified according to ecological criteria that relate to the properties of the services. These criteria are: (1) if the goods or services are produced and maintained within the ecosystem or shared with other ecosystems; (2) if the goods or object of the service are living or inorganic material; and (3) what biological unit is associated with production and maintenance, i.e. an individual, a species, a group of species, an entire community, the ecosystem, the landscape or on a global scale. Using these criteria I have identified and selected three major groups of ecosystem services for which some common ecological concepts apply. These are: (1) the maintenance of populations; (2) the use of ecosystems as filters of externally imposed compounds; and (3) the property of biological units to create organization through selective processes. These three categories are examined and exemplified in detail.

The most marked effect of cage aquaculture in an environment is the output of suspended solids and dissolved nutrients, which in some cases have been shown to cause environmental degradation. Instead of using traditional methods built on technological solutions, integrated farming methods have been put forward as a mean for treating nutrients and particulate wastes from fish cage farming. However, the results from integrated experiments, where filter feeders have been used to absorb suspended particles from fish cages, have not in many cases resulted in the expected beneficial effects. By modelling the output of waste from a salmon cage cultivation and particle filtration by mussels, the following main constraints for using filter feeders for removing particles from fish cages were identified: (1) Suspended solids from the fish cages will be highly diluted by the large volume of water passing through the cages. During continuous feeding (demand feeding) the concentration of released suspended solids was low (0.06‐0.3 mg l 1 ). Only when fish density in the cages was high prior to harvest, and water currents were slow (0.03‐0.05 m s 1 ), the increase in released concentrations were \0.1 mg l 1 . (2) Addition of feed in pulses showed a 3‐30-fold increase in water particle concentration, but the short duration of a pulse and saturation of mussel feeding would make long term seston concentration more important for mussel growth. (3) The potential particle retention from a rich pulse was limited by mussel pseudofaeces threshold level. It is concluded that, in a co-cultivation of mussels and salmons, the ambient seston concentration is of greater importance in controlling mussel growth, and increases in suspended solids from the fish cages may contribute significantly only during periods of low plankton production. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

We studied trophic interactions in experimental rockpools with three different food web structures: phytoplankton and small-bodied zooplankton; phytoplankton, small-bodied zooplankton and Daphnia; and phytoplankton, small-bodied zooplankton, Daphnia and Notonecta. Nutrients, primary productivity, chlorophyll a and zooplankton species composition and biomass were measured over eight weeks. 2. Daphnia had a negative impact on other zooplankton and reduced the phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity. In the absence of Daphnia, small-bodied zooplankton species were abundant, in particular cyclopoid copepods. Concentrations of dissolved nutrients were lower and the standing crop of primary producers was higher when Daphnia was absent. 3. The presence of the invertebrate predator Notonecta produced a top-down effect which was similar to that reported for planktivorous fish, i.e. a selective reduction of daphnids followed by an increase of small-bodied zooplankton species and phytoplankton biomass. 4. The study showed that consumer regulation of Daphnia by Notonecta and of algae by Daphnia are important, but also demonstrated that trophic level biomasses were controlled by a combination of predation and resource limitation.

I examined the effect of temperature and light on ecosystem composition was examined in a two factorial design using microcosms set up from natural rockpool communities. Furthermore I tested if the effect of temperature on different ecosystem components was dependent on the initial community composition by using communities from seven different rockpools that differed considerably in standing stocks of phytoplankton, zooplankton, zooplankton species composition, sediment mass and nutrient concentrations. Increased light caused phytoplankton biomass to decrease while zooplankton biomass and sediment dry weight was positively correlated to increased light levels. The effect of temperature on phytoplankon was largely determined by community type. Zooplankton biomass decreased with increasing temperature between 10 °C and 25 °C and this trend was not significantly different between different community types. A negative effect on zooplankton biomass was found at 7 °C in one community. I propose, that the stronger temperature sensitivity of metabolical cost for herbivorous organisms compared to algae productivity might explain the decrease in zooplankton biomass at high temperatures. I discuss how edibility of algae and grazer characteristics may influence the response of ecosystem composition to temperature.

A model of a closed phytoplankton—zooplankton ecosystem was analyzed for effects of temperature on stocks and stability and the dependence of these effects on light and total nutrient concentration of the system. An analysis of the steady state equations showed that the effect of temperature on zooplankton and POM biomass was levelled when primary production is nutrient limited. Temperature increase had a generally negative effect on all biomasses at high nutrient levels due to increased maintenance costs. Nutrient limitation of net primary production is the main factor governing the effect of stocks and flows as well as the stability of the system. All components of the system, except for phytoplankton biomass, are proportional to net production and thus to the net effect of light on photosynthesis. However, temperature determines the slope of that relationship. The resilience of the system was measured by calculating the eigenvalues of the steady state. Under oligotrophic conditions, the system can be stable, but an increase in temperature can cause instability or a decrease in resilience. This conclusion is discussed in the face of recent models that take spatial heterogeneity into account and display far more stable behavior, in better agreement to empirical data. Using simulations, we found that the amplitude of fluctuations of the herbivore stock increases with temperature while the mean biomass and minimum values decrease in comparison with steady state predictions

As a consequence of global environmental change, management strategies that can deal with unexpected change in resource dynamics are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we undertake a novel approach to studying resource growth problems using a computational form of adaptive management to find optimal strategies for prevalent natural resource management dilemmas. We scrutinize adaptive management, or learning-by-doing, to better understand how to simultaneously manage and learn about a system when its dynamics are unknown. We study important trade-offs in decision-making with respect to choosing optimal actions (harvest efforts) for sustainable management during change. This is operationalized through an artificially intelligent model where we analyze how different trends and fluctuations in growth rates of a renewable resource affect the performance of different management strategies. Our results show that the optimal strategy for managing resources with declining growth is capable of managing resources with fluctuating or increasing growth at a negligible cost, creating in a management strategy that is both efficient and robust towards future unknown changes. To obtain this strategy, adaptive management should strive for: high learning rates to new knowledge, high valuation of future outcomes and modest exploration around what is perceived as the optimal action.

Systems linking people and nature, known as social-ecological systems, are increasingly understood as complex adaptive systems. Essential features of these complex adaptive systems – such as nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions, individual and spatial heterogeneity, and varying time scales – pose substantial challenges for modeling. However, ignoring these characteristics can distort our picture of how these systems work, causing policies to be less effective or even counterproductive. In this paper we present recent developments in modeling social-ecological systems, illustrate some of these challenges with examples related to coral reefs and grasslands, and identify the implications for economic and policy analysis.

The temporal variation in force application of uni sized Asterias rubens on mussels of three different sizes was monitored by equipping mussel shells with electronic indicator devices and connecting them to a dynamometer. Three types of behaviour were observed. On small mussels a short pulse of ≈150 s was applied whereas on medium sized mussels the pulse exceeded 500 s. On large mussels a short pulse of ≈ 150 s was followed by a change in position to the dorsal side of the mussel. Sometimes a pulse was applied from this position. The maximum force during a pulse was between 7.6 and 70 N and not correlated to size of either mussel or starfish. Asterias seems to be able to respond to mussel size and morphology by changing its attack strategy. If the starfish is not able to open the mussel by a short force pulse or by exhaustion, it seems to use a siege strategy and wait out its prey. A high variability in mussel morphology was found between and within three different habitats in the North Sea. 70% of Mytilus edulis of North Sea origin were able to resist the force applied by Asterias rubens whereas all mussels of Baltic Sea origin were opened within one hour. Differences in mussel height, muscle size and muscle attachment were found between surviving and non-surviving mussels. These differences can also be noted between habitats with high versus low predation pressure.

explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduceextinctions,becausetheshiftingrangesofsomespecies hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change createdextinctionandevolutionarydebts,withchangesinspecies richness and traits occurring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additionalalterationsinglobalbiodiversity. Mostmodelsofspecies’responsestoclimatechangeexplorehow dispersal alone affects communities through shifting geographic ranges and ignore species interactions and evolutionary adaptation. However, species interactions often influence responses to climate 6 and climate-related traits can evolve rapidly 7,8 . Adaptation to new climates could moderate the direst predictions of biodiversity loss 9 whereas species interactions could enhance or diminish extinction risks depending on interaction type 10,11 . The available data do not yet permit the incorporation of these processes into quantitative estimates of extinction risk, but given the massive effort required to collect such data, a critical need exists for new theory to identify circumstances under which different processes may be particularly influential. Here we evaluate how ecological and evolutionary processes will interact in mediating species responses to climate change. To persist despite climate change, species need to disperse rapidly enough to track moving climate conditions, adapt to local conditions, or respond through plasticity 12 . These mechanisms interact with each other and with community dynamics through

International audience; Research on the interactions between evolutionary and ecological dynamics has largely focused on local spatial scales and on relatively simple ecological communities. However, recent work demonstrates that dispersal can drastically alter the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, often in unexpected ways. We argue that a dispersal-centered synthesis of metacommunity ecology and evolution is necessary to make further progress in this important area of research. We demonstrate that such an approach generates several novel outcomes and substantially enhances understanding of both ecological and evolutionary phenomena in three core research areas at the interface of ecology and evolution.

Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.

Environmental change is as multifaceted as are the species and communities that respond to these changes. Current theoretical approaches to modeling ecosystem response to environmental change often deal only with single environmental drivers or single species traits, simple ecological interactions, and/or steady states, leading to concern about how accurately these approaches will capture future responses to environmental change in real biological systems. To begin addressing this issue, we generalize a previous trait-based framework to incorporate aspects of frequency dependence, functional complementarity, and the dynamics of systems composed of species that are defined by multiple traits that are tied to multiple environmental drivers. The framework is particularly well suited for analyzing the role of temporal environmental fluctuations in maintaining trait variability and the resultant effects on community response to environmental change. Using this framework, we construct simple models to investigate two ecological problems. First, we show how complementary resource use can significantly enhance the nutrient uptake of plant communities through two different mechanisms related to increased productivity (over-yielding) and larger trait variability. Over-yielding is a hallmark of complementarity and increases the total biomass of the community and, thus, the total rate at which nutrients are consumed. Trait variability also increases due to the lower levels of competition associated with complementarity, thus speeding up the rate at which more efficient species emerge as conditions change. Second, we study systems in which multiple environmental drivers act on species defined by multiple, correlated traits. We show that correlations in these systems can increase trait variability within the community and again lead to faster responses to environmental change. The methodological advances provided here will apply to almost any function that relates species traits and environmental drivers to growth, and should prove useful for studying the effects of climate change on the dynamics of biota.

Background. The role of erbB tyrosine kinases, especially Her-2, in osteosarcoma has engendered intense debate. Some investigators identified an association between low-level Her-2 expression, compared to none, and poor patient outcome. Others questioned the importance of apparent cytoplasmic expression of Her-2, since membranous overexpression is associated with poor outcome in carcinomas. We previously demonstrated that primary osteosarcoma cells express cell-surface EGFR and Her-2, with the p80 isoform of Her-4 localized to the nucleus. We wished to determine if erbB kinases in osteosarcoma were phosphorylated, and if this was required for growth. Procedures. We cultured early passage osteosarcoma cell lines in the presence or absence of the pan-erbB inhibitor CI-1033 and examined the phosphorylation status of EGFR, Her-2, and Her-4 by immunohistochemistry, cell-based ELISA, flow cytometry and two dimensional Western blot. We also assessed the impact of CI-1033 upon osteosarcoma growth and survival in vitro. Results. EGFR, Her-2, and Her-4 were constitutively phosphorylated in early passage osteosarcoma cells cultured in vitro. CI-1033 abrogated erbB receptor phosphorylation and caused growth inhibition and apoptosis in a titratible fashion with concentrations of 1 mM or more. Conclusions. EGFR, Her-2, and Her-4 are constitutively phosphorylated in early passage osteosarcoma cells in tissue culture, and erbB signaling provides essential growth and anti-apoptotic signals to osteosarcoma cells. This suggests that erbB overexpression is not required for erbB to promote malignancy, but rather that overexpression is one of several mechanisms that generate unregulated erbB signaling. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2006;46:614‐ 623. 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The authors demonstrate that floating-plant dominance can be a self-stabilizing ecosystem state, which may explain its notorious persistence in many situations. Their results, based on experiments, field data, and models (in Dutch ditches and Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe), represent evidence for alternative domains of attraction in ecosystemsInvasion by mats of free-floating plants is among the most important threats to the functioning and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems ranging from temperate ponds and ditches to tropical lakes. Dark, anoxic conditions under thick floating-plant cover leave little opportunity for animal or plant life, and they can have large negative impacts on fisheries and navigation in tropical lakes. Here, we demonstrate that floating-plant dominance can be a self-stabilizing ecosystem state, which may explain its notorious persistence in many situations. Our results, based on experiments, field data, and models, represent evidence for alternative domains of attraction in ecosystems. An implication of our findings is that nutrient enrichment reduces the resilience of freshwater systems against a shift to floating-plant dominance. On the other hand, our results also suggest that a single drastic harvest of floating plants can induce a permanent shift to an alternative state dominated by rooted, submerged growth forms.

"Approaches to natural resource management are often based on a presumed ability to predict probabilistic responses to management and external drivers such as climate. They also tend to assume that the manager is outside the system being managed. However, where the objectives include long-term sustainability, linked social-ecological systems (SESs) behave as complex adaptive systems, with the managers as integral components of the system. Moreover, uncertainties are large and it may be difficult to reduce them as fast as the system changes. Sustainability involves maintaining the functionality of a system when it is perturbed, or maintaining the elements needed to renew or reorganize if a large perturbation radically alters structure and function. The ability to do this is termed 'resilience.' This paper presents an evolving approach to analyzing resilience in SESs, as a basis for managing resilience. We propose a framework with four steps, involving close involvement of SES stakeholders. It begins with a stakeholder-led development of a conceptual model of the system, including its historical profile (how it got to be what it is) and preliminary assessments of the drivers of the supply of key ecosystem goods and services. Step 2 deals with identifying the range of unpredictable and uncontrollable drivers, stakeholder visions for the future, and contrasting possible future policies, weaving these three factors into a limited set of future scenarios. Step 3 uses the outputs from steps 1 and 2 to explore the SES for resilience in an iterative way. It generally includes the development of simple models of the system's dynamics for exploring attributes that affect resilience. Step 4 is a stakeholder evaluation of the process and outcomes in terms of policy and management implications. This approach to resilience analysis is illustrated using two stylized examples."

Marine resource exploitation can deplete stocks faster than regulatory agencies can respond. Institutions with broad authority and a global perspective are needed to create a system with incentives for conservation.

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social-ecological system, the system-wide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state.

Ecosystem services (ES) is a valuable concept to be used in the planning and management of social–ecological landscapes. However, the understanding of the determinant factors affecting the interaction between services in the form of synergies or trade-offs is still limited. We assessed the production of 16 ES across 62 municipalities in the Norrström drainage basin in Sweden. We combined GIS data with publically available information for quantifying and mapping the distribution of services. Additionally, we calculated the diversity of ES for each municipality and used correlations and k-means clustering analyses to assess the existence of ES bundles. We found five distinct types of bundles of ES spatially agglomerated in the landscape that could be explained by regional social and ecological gradients. Human-dominated landscapes were highly multifunctional in our study area and urban densely populated areas were hotspots of cultural services. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0601-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0593-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This study examines the relationship between cladoceran species richness and ecosystem functioning. I conducted an experiment in which four cladocerans, Daphnia. magna, D. longispina, D. pulex and Chydorus sphaericus, were cultured in microcosms using different species combinations and levels of species richness. The results demonstrate that even within this closely related group of organisms the effects on ecosystem-level variables, such as total algae and zooplankton biomass, per capita productivity, and nutrient concentrations, as well as phytoplankton community structure, were highly variable between different combinations of these species. Since only four species where involved in this study, species-specific effects dominated the general relationship between species richness and ecosystem functioning. Particular combinations of species resulted in effects that indicated more efficient grazing. These effects, which were most pronounced in combinations including both D. magna and C. sphaericus, were manifested as an indirect effect as the prey community shifted towards grazing-resistant species. As a result, the productivity of the prey community decreased, because phytoplankton species with lower per capita productivity became more dominant. I suggest that the primary mechanism that caused this significant effect was complementarity in prey-size use of D. magna and C. sphaericus. In terms of prey-size range, D. pulex and D. longispina were redundant when D. magna was present and were quickly out-competed by the latter despite higher per capita filtering efficiency. The results show that different mechanisms are important for different combinations of species. Furthermore, the ability of the prey community to respond to changes of consumer species composition is an important factor in experiments in which consumer species richness is experimentally manipulated.

Ecosystem resistance to a single stressor relies on tolerant species that can compensate for sensitive competitors and maintain ecosystem processes, such as primary production. We hypothesize that resistance to additional stressors depends increasingly on species tolerances being positively correlated (i.e. positive species co-tolerance). Initial exposure to a stressor combined with positive species co-tolerance should reduce the impacts of other stressors, which we term stress-induced community tolerance. In contrast, negative species co-tolerance is expected to result in additional stressors having pronounced additive or synergistic impacts on biologically impoverished functional groups, which we term stress-induced community sensitivity. Therefore, the sign and strength of the correlation between species sensitivities to multiple stressors must be considered when predicting the impacts of global change on ecosystem functioning as mediated by changes in biodiversity.

Environmental factors regulate biodiversity through species sorting processes. Species distributions in communities affect ecosystem processes and environmental factors. These dynamics are determined by the properties (traits) of species in the community. The optimal temperatures for growth, the minimal amount of resource that sustains positive mass balance, and the amount of energy allocated to predator defenses are examples of such traits. Over time, the trait distributions in communities may change in response to environmental changes, which, in turn, changes the processes and consequently the structure of the system. The result of such processes is the focus of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory. This paper gives an overview of how CAS theory can contribute to understanding the role of biodiversity on the ability of functional groups that make up the ecosystem to change their species compositions in response to changes in the environment. Any trait that requires investment of energy, mass, or time is subjected to a tradeoff for alternative use of this resource. Such interspecies tradeoff relationships can be used to make predictions about past environmental conditions, as well as the response of the properties of a group of species, e.g., total productivity and species distributions, to future changes in the environment. The traitbased framework presented here makes explicit predictions regarding the relation between the environment, trait distributions, and ecosystem processes. Trait variance, a measure of the width of the distribution of traits in the community, is proportional to the rate at which species within functional groups can replace each other in response to environmental changes. This adaptive capacity is crucial for the ecosystem’s ability to maintain certain processes under times of change. Examples of empirical tradeoffs are given as well as how to formalize them to use in the CAS framework.