1. Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model for Early Admission to the Intensive Care Unit of Patients with Pneumonia
- Author
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Labarère J. Schuetz P. Renaud B. Claessens Y.-E. Albrich W. Mueller B.
- Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Risk of Early Admission to the Intensive Care Unit (REA ICU) index is a clinical prediction model that was derived based on 4593 patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) for predicting early admission to the intensive care unit (ICU; i.e. within 3 days following emergency department [ED] presentation). This study aimed to validate the REA ICU index in an independent sample. METHODS: The authors retrospectively stratified 850 CAP patients enrolled in a multicenter prospective randomized trial conducted in Switzerland using the REA ICU index alternate clinical prediction models of severe pneumonia (SMART COP CURXO 80 and the 2007 IDSA/ATS minor severity criteria) and pneumonia severity assessment tools (the Pneumonia Severity Index [PSI] and CURB 65). Results: The rate of early ICU admission did not differ between the validation and derivation samples within each risk class of the REA ICU index ranging from 1.1 to 1.8 in risk class I to 27.1 to 27.6 in risk class IV. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0.76 (95 confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.83) and 0.80 (95 CI = 0.77 to 0.83) in the validation and derivation samples respectively. In the validation sample the REA ICU index performed better than the pneumonia severity assessment tools but failed to demonstrate an accuracy advantage over alternate prediction models in predicting ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: The REA ICU index reliably stratifies CAP patients into four categories of increased risk for early ICU admission within 3 days following ED presentation. Further research is warranted to determine whether inflammatory biomarkers may improve the performance of this clinical prediction model.
- Published
- 2012
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