1. A prospective, observational study on conversion of Clinically Isolated Syndrome to Multiple Sclerosis during 4-year period (MS NEO study) in Taiwan
- Author
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Kon-Ping Lin, Kuo-Hsuan Chang, Li-Chieh Huang, Long-Sun Ro, Tzung-Chang Tsai, Ching-Piao Tsai, Rong-Kuo Lyu, Chih-Chao Yang, and Shiang-Ru Lu
- Subjects
Male ,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine ,Logistic regression ,Nervous System ,Diagnostic Radiology ,Geographical Locations ,0302 clinical medicine ,Infectious Diseases of the Nervous System ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Prospective Studies ,Enzyme-Linked Immunoassays ,Young adult ,Child ,Prospective cohort study ,First episode ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,Clinically isolated syndrome ,Radiology and Imaging ,Brain ,Neurodegenerative Diseases ,Myelitis ,Middle Aged ,Prognosis ,Magnetic Resonance Imaging ,Infectious Diseases ,Neurology ,Spinal Cord ,Disease Progression ,Medicine ,Female ,Anatomy ,Research Article ,Adult ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Multiple Sclerosis ,Asia ,Adolescent ,Imaging Techniques ,Science ,Immunology ,Population ,Taiwan ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Autoimmune Diseases ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,Signs and Symptoms ,Diagnostic Medicine ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Immunoassays ,education ,Aged ,business.industry ,Clinical events ,Multiple sclerosis ,Biology and Life Sciences ,medicine.disease ,Demyelinating Disorders ,Clinical trial ,Neuroanatomy ,People and Places ,Lesions ,Immunologic Techniques ,030221 ophthalmology & optometry ,Clinical Immunology ,Observational study ,Clinical Medicine ,business ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Neuroscience ,Demyelinating Diseases - Abstract
ImportanceCIS to MS conversion rates vary depending on population cohorts, initial manifestations, and durations of follow-up.ObjectiveTo investigate conversion rate of patients from CIS to MS and the prognostic significance of demographic and clinical variables in Taiwanese population.DesignNationwide, prospective, multi-centric, observational study from November 2008 to November 2014 with 4 years follow-up.SettingMulti-centre setting at 5 institutions in Taiwan.Participants152 patients having single clinical event potentially suggestive of MS in last 2 years were enrolled as consecutive sample. 33 patients were lost to follow-up and 16 patients did not complete the study.103 patients completed the study.Intervention(s) (for clinical trials) or Exposure(s) (for observational studies)Natural progression from first episode of CIS to MS or NMO was observed.Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)Variables analysed were ‘proportion of patients converting to MS or NMO after first episode of CIS’, ‘duration between first episode of neurological event and diagnosis of MS’, ‘status of anti-AQP4 IgG’ and ‘length of longest contiguous spinal cord lesion in MS patients’. Association between baseline characteristics and progression to MS from CIS was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Multivariate time dependent effect of baseline characteristics on progression to MS was plotted.Results14.5% patients with CIS converted to MS after 1.1 ± 1.0 years with greater predisposition (18.8%) in those having syndromes referable to the cerebral hemispheres. Conversion rate from ON to MS was 9.7%. 90.9% patients had benign disease course. 46.7% patients had abnormal MRIs at baseline, with 0.6±0.5 contrast enhanced lesions. ‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘MRI lesion load (≥ 4 lesions)’ were identified as risk indicators for the development of MS. Only 4.5% were positive for anti-AQP4 antibody in MS patients and amongst them, 80% were NMO patients as diagnosed by modern criteria.Conclusions and Relevance‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘number of demyelinating lesions (≥4)’ are significant predictors of conversion from CIS to MS. A low conversion rate to MS in Taiwanese CIS patients and majority of them having a benign course and minimal disability suggest the roles of geographic, genetic and ethnic factors.Trial RegistrationNon-trial observational study.
- Published
- 2018
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