1. Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America
- Author
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Burke, Kevin D., Williams, John W., Brewer, Simon, Finsinger, Walter, Giesecke, Thomas, Lorenz, David J., Ordonez, Alejandro, Palaeo-ecologie, Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of Utah, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics, Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen-Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Aarhus University [Aarhus], École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226, Georg-August-University [Göttingen]-Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Palaeo-ecologie, Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), and American Geophysical Union
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,palaeontology Keywords: climate change ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Climate ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,environmental science ,Biochemistry ,Novel ecosystem ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Divergence ,Novel climate ,climate analogue ,novel climate ,[SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Fossil Record ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all) ,Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) ,Fossils ,Plant Dispersal ,Novelty ,Climatic variables ,Subject Areas: ecology ,Last Glacial Maximum ,Vegetation ,Articles ,Biodiversity ,[SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics ,[SDV.BIBS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM] ,[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society ,Europe ,Geography ,13. Climate action ,North America ,novel ecosystem ,Pollen ,Physical geography ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,Climate analogue ,Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) - Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’
- Published
- 2019