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To improve the uncertainty quantification of variance networks, we propose a novel tree-structured local neural network model that partitions the feature space into multiple regions based on uncertainty heterogeneity. A tree is built upon giving the training data, whose leaf nodes represent different regions where region-specific neural networks are trained to predict both the mean and the variance for quantifying uncertainty. The proposed Uncertainty-Splitting Neural Regression Tree (USNRT) employs novel splitting criteria. At each node, a neural network is trained on the full data first, and a statistical test for the residuals is conducted to find the best split, corresponding to the two sub-regions with the most significant uncertainty heterogeneity between them. USNRT is computationally friendly because very few leaf nodes are sufficient and pruning is unnecessary. Furthermore, an ensemble version can be easily constructed to estimate the total uncertainty including the aleatory and epistemic. On extensive UCI datasets, USNRT or its ensemble shows superior performance compared to some recent popular methods for quantifying uncertainty with variances. Through comprehensive visualization and analysis, we uncover how USNRT works and show its merits, revealing that uncertainty heterogeneity does exist in many datasets and can be learned by USNRT.

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression tasks. This conditional distribution's quantiles of probability levels spreading the interval $(0,1)$ are boosted by additive models which are designed by us with intuitions and interpretability. We seek an adaptive balance between the structural integrity and the flexibility for $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$, while Gaussian assumption results in a lack of flexibility for real data and highly flexible approaches (e.g., estimating the quantiles separately without a distribution structure) inevitably have drawbacks and may not lead to good generalization. This ensemble multi-quantiles approach called EMQ proposed by us is totally data-driven, and can gradually depart from Gaussian and discover the optimal conditional distribution in the boosting. On extensive regression tasks from UCI datasets, we show that EMQ achieves state-of-the-art performance comparing to many recent uncertainty quantification methods. Visualization results further illustrate the necessity and the merits of such an ensemble model.

Extensive studies on Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) have propelled the deployment of deep learning from limited experimental datasets into real-world unconstrained domains. Most UDA approaches align features within a common embedding space and apply a shared classifier for target prediction. However, since a perfectly aligned feature space may not exist when the domain discrepancy is large, these methods suffer from two limitations. First, the coercive domain alignment deteriorates target domain discriminability due to lacking target label supervision. Second, the source-supervised classifier is inevitably biased to source data, thus it may underperform in target domain. To alleviate these issues, we propose to simultaneously conduct feature alignment in two individual spaces focusing on different domains, and create for each space a domain-oriented classifier tailored specifically for that domain. Specifically, we design a Domain-Oriented Transformer (DOT) that has two individual classification tokens to learn different domain-oriented representations, and two classifiers to preserve domain-wise discriminability. Theoretical guaranteed contrastive-based alignment and the source-guided pseudo-label refinement strategy are utilized to explore both domain-invariant and specific information. Comprehensive experiments validate that our method achieves state-of-the-art on several benchmarks., Comment: Accepted at ACMMM 2022

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) aims to transfer knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain. Most existing UDA approaches enable knowledge transfer via learning domain-invariant representation and sharing one classifier across two domains. However, ignoring the domain-specific information that are related to the task, and forcing a unified classifier to fit both domains will limit the feature expressiveness in each domain. In this paper, by observing that the Transformer architecture with comparable parameters can generate more transferable representations than CNN counterparts, we propose a Win-Win TRansformer framework (WinTR) that separately explores the domain-specific knowledge for each domain and meanwhile interchanges cross-domain knowledge. Specifically, we learn two different mappings using two individual classification tokens in the Transformer, and design for each one a domain-specific classifier. The cross-domain knowledge is transferred via source guided label refinement and single-sided feature alignment with respect to source or target, which keeps the integrity of domain-specific information. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art UDA methods, validating the effectiveness of exploiting both domain-specific and invariant