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We describe an innovative forecast presentation that aims to overcome obstacles to using seasonal climate forecasts for decision making, trace factors that influenced how seasonal forecast conventions have evolved, and describe a workshop process for training and supporting farmers in sub-Saharan Africa to use probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Mainstreaming seasonal climate forecasts through Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) was an important milestone in the development of climate services. Most RCOFs and National Meteorological Services (NMS) adopted a subjective process to arrive at a consensus among different sources of prediction, and express the forecast as probabilities that rainfall in the upcoming season will fall in “below-normal,” “normal” or “above-normal” historical tercile categories. The Flexible Forecast is an online presentation that rectifies the main criticisms of the tercile convention by presenting downscaled forecasts as full probability distributions in probability-of-exceedance format along with the historical climate distribution. A map view provides seasonal forecast quantities, anomalies, or probabilities of experiencing above or below a user-selected threshold in amount or percentile, at the spatial resolution of the underlying gridded data (typically 4 to 5 km). We discuss factors that contributed to the persistence of the tercile convention, and milestones that paved the way to adopting seasonal forecast methods and formats that better align with user needs. The experience of adopting the new flexible forecast presentation regionally and at a national level in Eastern Africa illustrates the challenges and how they can be overcome. We also describe a seasonal forecast training and planning workshop process that has been piloted with smallholder farmers in several African countries. Beginning with participants' collective memory of past seasonal climate variations, the process leads them incrementally to understand the forecast presented in probability-of-exceedance format, and apply it to their seasonal planning decisions.

Ester-linked hydroxycinnamic acids ferulic acid (FA) and para-coumaric acid (p-CA) play important roles in crosslinking within cell wall arabinoxylans (AX) and between AX and lignin in grass cell walls. The addition of hydroxycinnamates to AX, is mediated by the Mitchell clade of BAHD acyl-coenzyme A-utilizing transferases. Overexpression of OsAT10 (a Mitchell clade BAHD acyl transferase) in rice, has previously been shown to increase p-CA content in AX in leaves and stems, leading to increased cell wall digestibility, potentially associated with a concomitant decrease in FA content. To investigate the physiological role of OsAT10 we established CRISPR/Cas9 rice knock-out mutants devoid of OsAT10. Our analysis of hydroxycinnamic acid content in wild type plants revealed that AX associated p-CA is found almost exclusively in rice husks, with very little found in other tissues. Mutant plants were essentially devoid of ester-linked p-CA associated with AX, indicating that OsAT10 represents the major enzyme responsible for the addition of p-CA to arabinoxylan in rice plants. We found no change in the digestibility of rice husk lacking AX-associated p-CA, suggesting that the changes in digestibility seen in OsAT10 overexpressing plants were solely due to compensatory decreases in AX-associated FA.

Background Citric acid is typically produced industrially by Aspergillus niger-mediated fermentation of a sucrose-based feedstock, such as molasses. The fungus Aspergillus niger has the potential to utilise lignocellulosic biomass, such as bagasse, for industrial-scale citric acid production, but realising this potential requires strain optimisation. Systems biology can accelerate strain engineering by systematic target identification, facilitated by methods for the integration of omics data into a high-quality metabolic model. In this work, we perform transcriptomic analysis to determine the temporal expression changes during fermentation of bagasse hydrolysate and develop an evolutionary algorithm to integrate the transcriptomic data with the available metabolic model to identify potential targets for strain engineering. Results The novel integrated procedure matures our understanding of suboptimal citric acid production and reveals potential targets for strain engineering, including targets consistent with the literature such as the up-regulation of citrate export and pyruvate carboxylase as well as novel targets such as the down-regulation of inorganic diphosphatase. Conclusions In this study, we demonstrate the production of citric acid from lignocellulosic hydrolysate and show how transcriptomic data across multiple timepoints can be coupled with evolutionary and metabolic modelling to identify potential targets for further engineering to maximise productivity from a chosen feedstock. The in silico strategies employed in this study can be applied to other biotechnological goals, assisting efforts to harness the potential of microorganisms for bio-based production of valuable chemicals.

Der Klimawandel bringt häufigere und grössere Herausforderungen im Sicherheitsbereich mit sich. Dies erfordert eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit zwischen ehemals voneinander abgegrenzten politischen Bereichen. Dies wird anhand der Anpassung des Schweizer Bevölkerungsschutzes an den Klimawandel sowie zwei der Schwerpunkte der Schweiz im UNO-Sicherheitsrat, der Klimasicherheit und des nachhaltiger Friedens, veranschaulicht., CSS Analysen zur Sicherheitspolitik, 315, ISSN:2296-0236

In diesem Beitrag setzen sich Simon J. A. Mason und Olivia Lazard mit den Querverbindungen zwischen der Friedensmediation und dem Klimaschutz auseinander. Die AutorInnen zeigen dabei nicht nur mögliche Synergien, sondern auch die Spannungsfelder auf, die bei der Berücksichtigung von Umweltbelangen bei Mediationsprozessen auftreten können. Ferner gehen sie darauf ein, welche Auswirkungen die Wechselwirkung zwischen diesen beiden Bereichen für die Schweizer Friedens- und Sicherheitspolitik haben. Die Schweiz könnte während ihrer Sicherheitsrats-Mitgliedschaft 2023–2024 die beiden thematischen Schwerpunkte der Förderung des nachhaltigen Friedens und dem Angehen der Klimasicherheit verbinden., In this part of the Bulletin 2022, Simon J. A. Mason and Olivia Lazard discuss the interconnections between peace mediation and climate protection. The authors not only show possible synergies, but also the areas of conflict that can arise when environmental concerns are taken into account in mediation processes. They also talk about the effects of the interaction between these two areas on Swiss peace and security policy. During its 2023-2024 Security Council membership, Switzerland could combine the two priority areas of promoting sustainable peace and addressing climate security., Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2022 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-88-2

Das Bulletin 2022 befasst sich erneut mit aktuellen Themen der schweizerischen Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik. Es wird eröffnet durch ein Interview mit Bundespräsident und Vorsteher des Eidgenössischen Departements für auswärtige Angelegenheiten (EDA), Ignazio Cassis. In den darauffolgenden fünf Beiträgen beschäftigen sich unsere Autoren mit Militärischer Drohnennutzung (Constant Despont, Dominika Kunertova und Niklas Masuhr), der sicherheits- und verteidigungspolitischen Zusammenarbeit der Schweiz im Schatten des Ukraine-Krieges (Amos Dossi und Sophie-Charlotte Fischer), Prioritäten der Schweizer UNO-Sicherheitsrats-Mitgliedschaft (Fabien Merz), den Querverbindungen zwischen der Friedensmediation und dem Klimaschutz (Simon J. A. Mason und Olivia Lazard), und der Rolle von Technologie bei der Beobachtung von Waffenstillständen (Alexander Hug und Simon J. A. Mason). Wie jedes Jahr stellt auch dieses Bulletin zudem drei Projekte des CSS vor., The 2022 issue of the CSS’ annual “Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy” again deals with current issues in Swiss foreign and security policy. It starts with an interview with Federal President and Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), Ignazio Cassis. In the following five contributions, our authors address the use of drones in the military (Constant Despont, Dominika Kunertova and Niklas Masuhr), Switzerland's security and defense policy cooperation in the shadow of the Ukraine war (Amos Dossi and Sophie-Charlotte Fischer), Swiss priorities in its UN Security Council membership (Fabien Merz), the interconnections between peace mediation and climate protection (Simon J.A. Mason and Olivia Lazard), and the role of technology in monitoring ceasefires (Alexander Hug and Simon J.A. Mason). As every year, this Bulletin also presents three CSS projects., Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, ISBN:978-3-905696-88-2

Climate change is increasing the frequency and scope of security challenges. This calls for greater collaboration across formerly siloed policy fields, as illustrated in the context of climate change adaptation by Swiss Civil Protection and Switzerland’s “climate security” and “sustainable peace” priorities on the UN Security Council., CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 315, ISSN:2296-0244

Le changement climatique accroît la fréquence et l’ampleur des défis en matière de sécurité. Il en résulte un besoin accru de collaboration dans des domaines politiques autrefois cloisonnés. L’adaptation au changement climatique menée par la Protection civile suisse et le choix par la Suisse des questions de « sécurité climatique » et de « paix durable » comme priorités au Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU l’illustrent bien., Politique de sécurité: analyses du CSS, 315, ISSN:2296-0228

The triple nexus approach – understood as a more coherent engagement by humanitarian, peace, and development actors – is necessary to deal with the complexity of third-party engagements in fragile contexts. Implementing the triple nexus approach is challenging yet pivotal for more effective third-party impact., Der Triple-Nexus-Ansatz – verstanden als ein kohärenteres Engagement von humanitären, Friedens- und Entwicklungsakteuren – ist notwendig, um die Komplexität des Engagements Dritter in fragilen Kontexten zu bewältigen. Die Umsetzung des Triple-Nexus-Ansatzes ist eine Herausforderung, aber entscheidend für eine effektivere Wirkung von Drittparteien., CSS Policy Perspectives, 10 (9), ISSN:2296-6471

GC chromatograms and photos of extracts

In numerous intra-state conflicts, societies are polarized along worldview divides and conflicting parties disagree over what kind of society and state they want to build. Such questions can deeply divide societies and entrench intra-state wars by blocking political processes and mediation efforts. This paper suggests a method for addressing such blockages, one which is based on an understanding of the principal challenges that can arise from worldview differences in conflicts and conflict transformation. In order to deal with these challenges, we propose a model of engagement that we call the “mediation space” approach. Mediation space is defined as a process of exchange convened by a mediation team who bring together people across different worldviews in order to coordinate their actions and to agree on ways for practically addressing specific aspects of an ongoing conflict., In vielen innerstaatlichen Konflikten sind die jeweiligen Gemeinschaften entlang weltanschaulicher Trennlinien stark polarisiert und haben unterschiedliche Ansichten über welche Art von Gesellschaft und Staat aufgebaut werden soll. Solche Fragen können Gesellschaften tief spalten und politische Prozesse und Vermittlungsbemühungen blockieren. Diese CSS Mediation Resources schlägt eine Methode vor, um solche Blockaden anzugehen, indem die Autoren die wichtigsten Herausforderungen analysieren, die sich aus weltanschaulichen Differenzen in Konflikten und Konflikttransformation ergeben können. Um diese Herausforderungen zu bewältigen, schlagen die Autoren das sogenannte "mediation space"-Modell vor. Die Idee besteht darin, einen Raum zu schaffen, in dem die führenden Vertreter von Gemeinschaften über die Differenzen hinweg zusammenkommen können, um Konfliktthemen anzusprechen., CSS Mediation Resources, ISSN:2296-7397, ISBN:978-3-905696-87-5

Ceasefire negotiators, monitors, and verifiers should not ignore advances in technology. What technology can and cannot do, however, has to be carefully assessed in relation to other factors that make or break a ceasefire., Waffenstillstandsverhandlungsführende, -überwachende und -überprüfende sollten Fortschritte in der Technologie nicht ignorieren. Was Technologie leisten kann und was nicht, muss jedoch sorgfältig im Verhältnis zu anderen Faktoren bewertet werden, die einen Waffenstillstand bewirken oder brechen., CSS Policy Perspectives, 10 (2), ISSN:2296-6471

GC chromatograms and photos of extracts

In diesem Beitrag betrachten Alexander Hug und Simon J. A. Mason die Rolle von Technologie bei der Beobachtung von Waffenstillständen. Die Erkenntnisse aus dem Kapitel basieren auf den Erfahrungen der 2014 begonnenen und nach dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine im April 2022 beendeten Beobachtermission der OSZE in der Ukraine. Die Mission setzte Technologien wie Drohnen, Satellitenbilder und Sensoren ein und erhöhte und ergänzte so die Reichweite und Effizienz menschlicher Beobachterinnen und Beobachter. Technologie hat damit zur Beobachtung und Verifikation eines Waffenstillstands in Europas akutestem Konflikt beigetragen. Gemäss den Autoren darf sie aber nicht isoliert eingesetzt werden, beinhaltet Risiken, und ihre Einbettung erfordert geeignete Strukturen und Mittel. Deshalb erörtern Hug und Mason, welche Konsequenzen sich für Akteure wie die Schweiz oder andere OSZE-Staaten in Bezug auf Fachleute, Ausrüstung und Strukturen der Missionen ergeben., In this part of the Bulletin 2022, Alexander Hug and Simon J. A. Mason consider the role of technology in monitoring ceasefires. The findings of the chapter are based on the experiences of the OSCE observer mission in Ukraine, which began in 2014 and ended after the Russian attack on Ukraine in April 2022. The mission used technologies such as drones, satellite imagery and sensors, increasing and complementing the range and efficiency of human observers. Technology has thus contributed to the observation and verification of a ceasefire in Europe's most acute conflict. According to the authors, however, it must not be used in isolation, it involves risks and its embedding requires suitable structures and resources. Hug and Mason therefore discuss the consequences for actors such as Switzerland or other OSCE states in terms of experts, equipment and structures of the missions., Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2022 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-88-2

Globally, 2.01 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW) were generated in 2016, about 37% of which was disposed of into landfills. This study evaluates the environmental and financial viability of producing ethanol from autoclaved MSW via fermentation. Experimental screening of four different microorganisms (i.e., S. cerevisiae, Z. mobilis, E. coli, and S. pombe) and process modelling indicate that MSW-derived ethanol can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions relative to gasoline (84% reduction following EU Renewable Energy Directive accounting methodology, and by 156–231% reduction following the US Energy Independence and Security Act methodology). Utilisation of wastes for biofuel production in the UK benefits from policy support and financial support for renewable fuels (Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates). Financial analysis highlights that microorganisms achieving higher ethanol yield and productivity (S. cerevisiae and Z. mobilis) can achieve financial viability with higher cumulative net present value than E. coli, S. pombe. However, the positive net present value can be achieved primarily due to the benefit of gate fees received by diverting wastes to autoclave and ethanol production (64% of total revenues), rather than from revenues from ethanol sales (7% of total revenues). Key process improvements must be achieved to improve the financial viability of ethanol production from MSW and deliver a clear advantage over waste incineration, specifically improving hydrolysis yield, reducing enzyme loading rate and, to a lesser extent, increasing solid loading rate. The results provide significant insights into the role of policy and technology development to achieve viable waste-to-biofuel systems.

he oomycete pathogen Aphanomyces astaci, also known as "crayfish plague", is an obligate fungal-like parasite of freshwater crustaceans and is considered responsible for the ongoing decline of native European crayfish populations. A. astaci is thought to secrete a wide array of effectors and enzymes that facilitate infection, however their molecular mechanisms have been poorly characterized. Here, we report the identification of AA15 lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs) as a new group of secreted virulence factors in A. astaci. We show that this enzyme family has greatly expanded in A. astaci compared to all other oomycetes, and that it may facilitate infection through oxidative degradation of crystalline chitin, the most abundant polysaccharide found in the crustacean exoskeleton. These findings reveal new roles for LPMOs in animal-pathogen interactions, and could help inform future strategies for the protection of farmed and endangered species.

Additional file 12: Fig. S7. Characterisation of the recombinant bacterial CAZymes encoded by the endosymbionts. DNS reducing sugars assays showing activities on a number of substrates for LpsGH5_8, LpsGH11, LpsGH134a and LpsGH134b. CMC = carboxymethyl cellulose, LBG = locust bean gum. The nanomoles of sugars released by the different proteins cannot be compared quantitatively as different amounts were used for the assay. File format .DOCX.

Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have failed thus far, for numerous reasons. One specific challenge has been how to address the concerns of religious actors. Local mediators’ engagement with religious actors highlight some ways forward, with insights relevant beyond the specific Israeli-Palestinian context., CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 281, ISSN:2296-0244

Additional file 8: Table S2. CAZy families. List of the CAZy families mentioned in the results, with the description of the activities that have been recorded for enzymes listed in each family. The information has been gathered from the CAZy database ( http://www.cazy.org ). File format .DOCX.

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Experiment location. Figure S2. Coverage estimates for each 16S rRNA amplicon library for all biological replicates across each time point. Figure S3. CAZyme families identified within the metatranscriptomic databases presented as transcripts per million. Figure S4. CAZyme producing genera and their respective CAZyme contributions. Figure S5. Productivity index for CAZyme producing taxa at family level resolution. Figure S6. Phylogenetic distribution of CAZyme classes at class resolution for week one. Figure S7. Phylogenetic distribution of CAZyme classes at class resolution for week three. Figure S8. Phylogenetic distribution of CAZyme classes at class resolution for week five. Figure S9. Phylogenetic distribution of CAZyme classes at class resolution for week ten. Figure S10. Functional classification of proteins within the metasecretome. Figure S11. Fungal profiles and OTU richness elucidated from internal transcribed spacer region 2 amplicon sequencing across the 16-week time course. Figure S12. Nutrient acquisition strategy of fungi profile across the 16-week time course. Figure S13. Bacteria profiles elucidated from 16S rRNA sequence homology. Figure S14. Bacteria profiles elucidated from 16S rRNA sequence homology. Table S1. Transect position of the five biological replicates in Welwick salt marsh. Table S2. Sequence reads throughout RNA sequence processing and assembly. Table S3. Commands for the replication of the 16S rRNA amplicon database processing pipeline.

Additional file 14: Table S6. Primers used for the cloning of the bacterial proteins LpsGH5_8, LpsGH11, LpsGH134a and LpsGH134b. LpsAA10A could not be amplified from the cDNA and therefore a synthetic version of the gene was codon-optimised for E-coli expression. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 2: Fig. S2. Searching for the opening of the duct of Deshayes in the shipworm digestive system. Left, transverse sections through the shell valve, from the anterior to posterior adductor muscle (A-E). Right, 3D rendered model of the whole shipworm, with the green highlighted region showing the position of the transverse cross section displayed on the left. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 10: Table S4. Details of the proteins for which heterologous recombinant expression from symbionts cDNA was successful. The annotation was performed against the NCBI non-redundant database, the signal peptides were identified with the Signal P4.1 server and the CAZy domains were searched using dbCAN. Dis. bonds = disulfide bonds. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 1: Fig. S1. Scanning electron microscopic images of the gills and food groove of L. pedicellatus. A) Close up of the gills lamellae to show the numerous cilia that capture food and draw it to the food groove. B) Close up of the food groove to show the numerous cilia (most of the mucus is lost during critical point drying). File format .DOCX.

Additional file 6: Fig. S6. Immunogold labelling of LpsGH5_8 in L. pedicellatus using pre-immune serum (negative control). A) SEM image illustrating the anatomical position of the gills, food groove, caecum and mouth in the shipworm body. B-D) Immunogold labelling of the lumen of the food groove (B), lumen of the caecum (C), and the gills (D) performed with pre-immune serum. No gold particles are observed in any of the samples. B = bacteria. File format .DOCX.

Understanding, “right-sizing,” and adequately respecting the role of value systems in conflict transformation avoids both over- and under-emphasis. It aims at a better understanding of the interplay between tangible conflict issues and religious or secular value systems, argue Abbas Aroua, Jean-Nicolas Bitter and Simon J. A. Mason in this CSS Policy Perspective., Verständnis, «right-sizing», und die angemessene Berücksichtigung der Rolle von Wertesystemen bei der Konflikttransformation vermeidet sowohl eine Über- als auch eine Unterbewertung. Es zielt auf ein besseres Verständnis des Zusammenspiels zwischen konkreten Konfliktthemen und religiösen oder säkularen Wertesystemen ab, argumentieren Abbas Aroua, Jean-Nicolas Bitter und Simon J. A. Mason in dieser CSS Policy Perspective., CSS Policy Perspectives, 9 (9), ISSN:2296-6471

Additional file 11: Table S5. The amino acid sequences of the bacterial proteins LpsGH5_8, LpsGH11, LpsGH134a, LpsGH134b and LpsAA10A. Text in red represents the signal peptide. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 7: Table S1. Details of the proteins identified through proteomic analysis of the crystalline style. The annotation was performed against the NCBI non-redundant database, the signal peptides were identified with the Signal P4.1 server and the CAZy domains were searched using dbCAN. Many of the contigs were out of frame or not full length (particularly the bacterial ones) and therefore the identification of the signal peptide was not possible. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 1: Table S1. The functional annotations of proteins identified in the proteome of PfMig188. Table S2. The distribution of upregulated proteins across the different secretomes containing sugarcane bagasse.

Additional file 4: Fig. S4. Bacterial symbionts in L. pedicellatus. A) TEM image of a gill bacteriocyte. Arrows indicate the numerous rod-shaped bacteria in the cell. B) Close-up view of gill bacteria (TEM). C) Detailed TEM showing a cross section of a gill bacterium and some of its features (periplasmic space and membranes). File format .DOCX.

Additional file 5: Fig. S5. SDS-PAGE and nitrocellulose western blot obtained by loading 0.6 ��g of the recombinant purified bacterial LpsGH5_8 (without the appended CBM). A) Coomassie Brilliant Blue stained SDS-PAGE gel of the purified protein. B) Western blot detection performed with the purified pre-immune serum. C) Western blot detection performed with the purified anti-protein serum. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 3: Fig. S3. Scanning electron microscopy of L. pedicellatus. A dissected specimen with the mantle removed, showing the food groove connecting the gills to the mouth. File format .DOCX.

Les pourparlers de paix israélo-palestiniens ont échoué à ce jour. L’une des difficultés étant de répondre aux préoccupations des acteurs religieux. L’instauration d’un dialogue entre des médiateurs locaux et ces acteurs met en lumière certaines perspectives, avec des enseignements qui pourraient s’appliquer au-delà du contexte israélo-palestinien., Politique de sécurité: analyses du CSS, 281, ISSN:2296-0228

Additional file 13: Fig. S8. MALDI-TOF MS analysis of in vitro activity assays with purified LpsAA10A under the same experimental conditions as in Fig. 5 C. Panels from a to d show spectra of products obtained after incubation of the enzyme with 4 mg mL-1 Avicel (a), 4 mg mL-1 Avicel plus 4 mM gallic acid (b), 4 mg mL-1 Avicel plus 2 ��M LPMO (c) and 4 mg mL-1 Avicel plus 2 ��M LPMO and 4 mM gallic acid (d). In panels a to d, 100% relative intensity represents 1.3 �� 104 arbitrary units (a.u.). The panels from e to g show spectra of products obtained after incubation of 4 mg mL-1 PASC (e), 4 mg mL-1 PASC plus 4 mM gallic acid (f) and 4 mg mL-1 PASC plus 2 ��M LPMO (g). In panels e to g, 100% relative intensity represents 1.0 �� 104 arbitrary units. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 9: Table S3. CAZy families of the caecum. Table showing the relative abundance (calculated from the emPAI score) of eukaryotic and prokaryotic CAZy families identified in the proteomic analysis of the caecum content of L. pedicellatus. File format .DOCX.

Additional file 1. Containing Q-Q plots of GWAS

There is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.

Additional file 7. Full derivation of the fitness function used for in silico evolution of organic acid production.

Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.

Additional file 4. Detailed calculation for estimated gains of using a marker in breeding

Little has been documented about the benefits and impacts of the recent growth in climate services, despite a growing call to justify their value and stimulate investment. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), an integral part of the public and private enterprise of climate services, have been implemented over the last 20 years with the objectives of producing and disseminating seasonal climate forecasts to inform improved climate risk management and adaptation. In proposing guidance on how to measure the success of RCOFs, we offer three broad evaluative categories that are based on the primary stated goals of the RCOFs: 1) quality of the climate information used and developed at RCOFs; 2) legitimacy of RCOF processes focused on consensus forecasts, broad user engagement, and capacity building; and 3) usability of the climate information produced at RCOFs. Evaluating the quality of information relies largely on quantitative measures and statistical techniques that are standardized and transferrable, but assessing the RCOF processes and perceived usability of RCOF products will necessitate a combination of quantitative and qualitative social science methods that are sensitive to highly variable regional contexts. As RCOFs have taken up different formats and procedures to adapt to diverse institutional and political settings and varied technical and scientific capacities, objective evaluation methods adopted should align with the goals and intent of the evaluation and be performed in a participatory, coproduction manner where producers and users of climate services together design the evaluation metrics and processes. To fully capture the potential benefits of the RCOFs, it may be necessary to adjust or recalibrate the goals of these forums to better fit the evolving landscape of climate services development, needs, and provision.

Additional file 5: Table S15. Index numbers of mutations and corresponding reactions and mutation effects.