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This study develops a scenario-based model to assess the current and future trends in energy demand in Africa and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Future energy demand is forecast on the basis of socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanization. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model is applied to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period 2010-2040. Two main policy implications can be derived from the results of this study. First, it is essential for Africa to promote energy conservation policies that will improve energy efficiency and address issues related to energy shortages, energy poverty, and energy security. Second, policies that favour cleaner energies over other sources are required as early as possible to displace fossil fuel usage and to support sustainable economic development.

This paper develops a scenario-based model to identify and provide an array of electricity demand in Africa, and to derive them from the African power system of development. A system-based approach is performed by applying the scenario methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning'. Four scenarios are investigated. The Business as Usual scenario replicates the regional and national master plans. The renewable promotion scenario increases the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix. The demand- and supply-side efficiency scenarios investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the power system. The results show an increase in electricity demand by 4 per cent by 2040, supply shortages, and high emissions of greenhouse gases. Contrary to expectations, the renewable energy scenario did not emerge as the best solution to a sustainable electrification of the region. The energy efficiency scenarios have allowed us to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification.