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Fertility rates have been falling persistently over the past 50 years in most developed countries around the world. Simultaneously, the trend in outward migration from poorer to richer countries has been steady. These two forces have contributed to declining population growth and in some countries even to depopulation. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the negative effect of decreasing fertility on the aggregate human capital stock of a country is compensated for by increasing education and health investments – both of which raise individual human capital. We find that declining fertility is not fully, but partly compensated when including the full set of countries in our regressions. When focusing on depopulation countries, the compensatory effect is substantially weaker and, in many specifications, even insignificant.

It is widely accepted that environmental and demographic changes will significantly influence the future of our society. In recent years, an increasing number of studies has analyzed the interlinkages among economic growth, environmental factors and a specific demographic variable, namely life expectancy, applying an overlapping generations framework. The aim of this survey is threefold. First, we review the role of life expectancy and pollution for sustainable growth. Second, we discuss the role of intervening factors like health investment and technological progress as well as institutional settings including government expenditures, tax structures and inequality. Finally, we summarize policy implications obtained in different models and compare them to each other.

This study analyses age-specific differences in income trends in nine European countries. Based on data from National Accounts and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, we quantify age-specific changes in income between 2008 and 2017 and decompose these changes into employment, wages, and public transfer components. Results show that income of the younger age groups stagnated or declined in most countries since 2008, while income of the older population increased. The decomposition analysis indicates that the main drivers of the diverging trends are higher employment among the older population and a strong increase in public pensions, especially for women.

As the heterogeneity in life expectancy by socioeconomic status increases, pension systems become more regressive implying wealth transfers from short to long lived individuals. Various pension reforms aim to reduce these inequalities that are caused by ex-ante differences in life expectancy. However, these pension reforms may themselves induce redistribution effects since a) life expectancy is not perfectly correlated to socioeconomic status and b) pension reforms themselves will have an impact on life cycle decisions (education, consumption, health, labor supply) and ultimately also on life expectancy and the composition of the population. To account for these feedback effects of pension reforms in heterogenous aging societies we propose an OLG framework that is populated by heterogeneous individuals that initially differ by their learning ability and disutility from the effort of attending schooling. These initial heterogeneities imply differences in ex ante life expectancies. Within this framework we study two pension reforms that aim to account for these differences in ex ante life expectancies. We show that by including the feedback of pension reforms on individual behavior, new redistributions may result.

Most nations have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by locking down parts of their economies to reduce infectious spread. The optimal timing of the beginning and end of the lockdown, together with its intensity, is determined by the tradeoff between economic losses and improved health outcomes. These choices can be modeled within the framework of an optimal control model that recognizes the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic spread and the increased risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Past work has shown that within such a framework very different strategies may be optimal ranging from short to long and even multiple lockdowns, and small changes in the valuation placed on preventing a premature death may lead to quite different strategies becoming optimal. There even exist parameter constellations for which two or more very different strategies can be optimal. Here we revisit those crucial questions with revised parameters reflecting the greater infectivity of the recently detected "UK variant" of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and describe how the new variant may affect levels of mortality and other outcomes.

In this work, we assess the global impact of COVID-19 showing how demographic factors, testing policies and herd immunity are key for saving lives. We extend a standard epidemiological SEIR model in order to: (a) identify the role of demographics (population size and population age distribution) on COVID-19 fatality rates; (b) quantify the maximum number of lives that can be saved according to different testing strategies, different levels of herd immunity, and specific population characteristics; and (c) infer from the observed case fatality rates (CFR) what the true fatality rate might be. Different from previous SEIR model extensions, we implement a Bayesian Melding method in our calibration strategy which enables us to account for data limitation on the total number of deaths. We derive a distribution of the set of parameters that best replicate the observed evolution of deaths by using information from both the model and the data.

In this paper, we analyse the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). We use NTA and NTTA data, and introduce these data into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state. In the three countries analysed, public policies (e.g. education, health care, and pension benefits) redistribute income from younger individuals to older individuals. Our findings indicate that these policies redistribute more resources to older individuals in Spain and fewer resources to older individuals in Austria. We consider the effects of several reform scenarios, including simulations in which the statutory retirement age is raised and the tax base for financing health care expenditures are changed. We also describe the consequences of the population having a fixed level of educational attainment.

Understanding the relationship between drought and population dynamics is increasingly important, particularly in areas where high population growth corresponds with increasing drought risk due to climate change. We examine the relationship between drought events and population dynamics using a stylized hydrology-demography model that has been calibrated to simulate plausible feedbacks for the population decline of the Ancient Maya of Central America. We employ a deterministic and a stochastic approach. We find that the impact of drought increases abruptly once a critical threshold of population density is exceeded. The critical threshold depends on the intensity and duration of the drought as well as on the level of technology adopted by society, the extent of markets and societal behavior. The simulations show that, for a society to be as food secure post-climate change as they are pre-climate change, strategies would have to be adopted to not only increase the region's capacity to provide sufficient resources for its growing population, but also to buffer the impact of a drier climate on productivity. This study provides suggestions on how technological, societal and economic development can modify the system to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the human population.

In this paper we investigate the impact of a reduction in the pension replacement rate on the schooling choice and on inequality. We develop an overlapping generations model in which individuals differ by their life expectancy and in the cost of attending schooling. Individuals optimally choose their consumption path and their educational attainment. Within our framework we first show how many progressive pension systems are ex ante regressive due to the difference in life expectancy across skill groups and, second, we derive the level of progressivity that restores an equal treatment of the pension system across skill groups.

Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened recently in many countries. Such longevity gaps affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of public pension systems. However, behavioral responses to longevity and policy complicate analysis of possible reforms. Here we consider how some pension reforms would perform in a general equilibrium OLG setting with heterogeneous longevity and ability. We evaluate redistributive effects of three Notional Defined Contribution plans and three Defined Benefit plans, calibrated on the US case. Compared to a nonredistributive plan that accounts for differences in mortality, US Social Security reduces regressivity from longevity differences, but requires group-specific life tables to achieve progressivity. Moreover, without separate life tables, despite apparent accounting gains lower income groups would suffer welfare losses and higher income groups enjoy welfare gains through indirect effects of pension systems on labor supply.

We set up a lifecycle model of a retired scholar who chooses optimally the time devoted to different activities including physical activity, continued work and social engagement. While time spent in physical activity increases life expectancy, continued scientific publications increases the knowledge stock. We show the optimal trade off between these activities in retirement and its sensitivity with respect to alternative settings of the preference parameters.

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.

We analyze the effects of automation on the wages of high-skilled and low- skilled workers and thereby on the evolution of wage inequality. Our model explains the simultaneous presence of i) increasing per capita GDP, ii) de-clining real wages of low-skilled workers, and iii) an increasing skill-premium. These developments are consistent with the experience in the United States over the past decades and have the potential to contribute to the explanation of the rise in overall incomeinequality that we have observed since the 1980s.

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. We find that, the higher the flood risk and the more the firm values the future, i.e. the more sustainable the firm plans, the more the firm will invest in ood defense. Investmentsin productive capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic settings have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial productive capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed productive capital.

We investigate the differential impact that pension systems have on the labor supply and the accumulation of physical and human capital for individuals that differ by their learning ability and levels of life expectancy. Our analysis is calibrated to the US economy using a general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations, in which all population groups interact through the pension system, the labor market, and the capital market. Within our framework we analyze the redistributive and macroeconomic effects of a progressive versus a flat replacement rate of the pension system.

Interdisciplinary research and education programmes in water science are intended to produce groundbreaking research, often with an emphasis on societal relevance, and prepare future water resource experts to work across disciplines. This paper explores the emerging outcomes from an ongoing doctoral programme currently in its seventh year. Within the programme, there is both cross-disciplinary and mono-disciplinary research. Three questions are explored: (i) whether cross-disciplinary research leads to more innovative scientific findings than mono-disciplinary research, (ii) whether cross-disciplinary researchers develop professional skills that benefit their future careers, and (iii) whether cross-disciplinary research produces findings of greater societal relevance than mono-disciplinary research. Various indicators are used to measure research and education outcomes. Analysis of journal impact factors and citation rates of Institute of Scientific Information indexed publications suggests that cross-disciplinary research findings are more innovative. Comparison between graduate research profile and their career destinations suggests that researchers who learn to work across the disciplines continue to work this way in their post-doctoral positions. Analysis of media interest in research findings or their impact on policy suggests that both types of research are of societal value, but researchers often expand their understanding of a societal interest topic by bringing in new research fields., Water Policy, 19 (3), ISSN:1366-7017

According to prior studies, female researchers in Austria exhibit a very high level of childlessness and, consequentially, a low mean number of children. Following up on these studies, we analyse childlessness intentions of young female researchers and compare them to those of other highly educated women in other occupations. We examine factors that are related to female researchers' intent to stay childless. The analysis is based on a survey of 196 female researchers between the ages of 25 and 45 (with the majority being between age 25 and 34). Results indicate that few young, childless researchers plan a life without children: Only 7% intend to stay childless and most of them want to have two children (66%). Their intentions are strikingly close to those of their highly educated peers in other occupations. We discuss three factors that play a role for childlessness intentions of female researchers: work-related conditions (employment uncertainty and work-family reconciliation), personal career orientation, and partnership context.

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between fertility and a direct measure of poverty for Indonesia, a country, which has experienced unprecedented economic growth and sharp fertility declines over recent decades. It focuses on illustrating the sensitivity of the effect of fertility on household consumption with respect to the equivalence scale by applying the propensity score matching method. The analysis suggests that a newborn child decreases household consumption per person by 20 percent within four years. When the estimates of equivalence scales implied by the Indonesian sample are applied, the effect of a child on household consumption is still negative, but the magnitudes are in the range from 20 to 65 percent of that found with the per-capita expenditure as a measure of consumption. Therefore, it is suggested that the analysis based on the conventional measure of poverty is likely to exaggerate the effect of fertility on poverty at least because of the neglect of the proper equivalence scale.

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyse the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defence and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defence capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyse the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defence and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defence capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

We compare selected European countries using an economic dependency ratio which emphasizes the role of age-specific levels of production and consumption. Our analysis reveals large differences in the age- and gender-specific level and type of production activities across selected European countries and identifies possible strategies to adjust age-specific economic behaviour to an ageing population. The cross-country differences in economic dependency of children and elderly persons are largely determined by the age at which people enter, respectively exit, the labour market. The ability of the working age population to support children and elderly persons in turn is strongly influenced by the participation of women in paid work. We also provide a measure for the age-specific production and consumption in form of unpaid household work. The inclusion of unpaid household work leads to a decrease of the gender differences in production activities and indicates that the working age population supports children and elderly persons not only through monetary transfers but also through services produced by unpaid work (e.g. childcare, cooking, cleaning…). Given the available data, we cannot distinguish the age profile of consumption by gender and have to assume – in case of unpaid work - that each member of the household consumes the same. Hence, our results have to be regarded as a first approximation only. Our paper aims to argue that a reform of the welfare system needs to take into account not only public transfers but also private transfers, in particular the transfers in form of goods and services produced through unpaid household work.

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take not only into account the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption. In simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. In addition, the specific deffinitions of the ratios will result in different interpretations of dependency. The choice which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.

Current demographic developments are expected to challenge the sustainability of welfare in industrialised economies. Persistent low fertility levels and increasing survival rates to older age imply a decreasing share of younger individuals within the labour force that needs to support an increasing share of old people out of the labour force. We use matched employeremployee data for Austria at the firm level in order to study the link between the age structure and labour productivity and concentrate on the role played by regional location and sector affiliation. We apply multilevel estimation techniques in order to account for systematic variation of the age-productivity pattern with regard to these two dimensions. Our results indicate that the age-productivity pattern differs significantly across regions and across sectors and that sectoral differences are the more sizable source of heterogeneity in the link between the age structure and firm productivity.

In general, the spreading of egalitarian family values has often been associated with a decline in fertility. However, recently a rebound in fertility has been observed in several industrialized countries. A possible explanation of this trend may be the spread of egalitarian values that induced institutional changes - such as expansion of child care facilities and father leave - fostering the combination of parenthood and the egalitarian lifestyle. In our paper we build up a formal model to study the diffusion from traditional to egalitarian gender-behavior and its impact on fertility. We find that the long-run development of the total fertility within a population not only depends on the pace of diffusion of egalitarianism and the extent to which social interactions affect the egalitarians' birth rates, but also on the initial number of traditionalists and egalitarians. We show under which conditions a fertility decline is followed by a subsequent recovery.

Comparative Population Studies, Vol. 36 No. 2-3 (2011): Fertility Dynamics in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

This paper investigates the role of recent pension reforms for the development of the social security system and economic growth in Austria. We use a computable general equilibrium model that is built up of overlapping generations that differ by their household structure, longevity, educational attainment, and capital accumulation. Each household optimally decides over its consumption paths, work effort, and retirement age according to the life-cycle theory of labor, while they face survival risk. We find that the pension reforms implemented from 2000 to 2004, although in the correct direction, are not sufficient to solve the labor market distortion caused by the Austrian PAYG pension system. Using alternative policy options, our simulations indicate that a change to a notional defined contribution system and an increase in the educational distribution of the work force would increase the incentive for later retirement ages and thereby increase labor supply and economic growth.

In diesem Artikel werden die offiziellen Fertilitätsprognosen der Statistischen Ämter in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz untersucht. Zunächst betrachten wir für alle drei Länder die historische Entwicklung der Fertilitätsprognosen. Es zeigt sich, dass in allen drei Ländern die Fertilitätsprognosen auf einer Fortschreibung der aktuellen Fertilitätsentwicklungen in die Zukunft beruhen. Im Anschluss untersuchen wir detailliert die aktuellen Prognosen – mit besonderer Berücksichtigung ihrer Beschaffenheit im Hinblick auf die Veränderungen im Timing und Quantum der Fertilität. Wir zeigen, dass die Annahmen zum erwarteten Ende des Anstiegs des durchschnittlichen Gebäralters im Prognosezeitraum einen Rückgang im Quantum der Fertilität implizieren. Dies ist insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund niedriger Geburtenziffern, wie sie in den drei betrachteten Ländern vorherrschen, von Relevanz. Analoge Schlussfolgerungen zeigen sich, wenn wir von einer Kohortenperspektive ausgehen. Basierend auf diesen Ergebnissen, schlagen wir vor, explizit die Verschiebung des durchschnittlichen Gebäralters und deren Auswirkung auf die Fertilitätsniveaus zu berücksichtigen. Dies könnte mittels des Bongaarts-Feeney-Ansatzes zur Tempokorrektur oder auf Grundlage eines ähnlichen Tempoansatzes geschehen. Zudem zeigen wir drei konsistente Varianten (niedrig, mittel und hoch) am Beispiel von Deutschland und weisen nach, dass eine entsprechende Berechnungen unter Berücksichtigung des Tempoansatzes in den meisten Fällen die mittlere Variante der Prognose, die von einem konstanten Niveau der Fertilität ausgeht, übertreffen kann. In this article, the official fertility projections of the statistical agencies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are examined. We refer to the literature on this topic and the history of fertility projections in all three countries. We conclude that the basis of fertility projections is the persistence of the present. We then investigate the most recent projections in more detail – with special regard for their consistency of timing and level changes of fertility. This shows that in the low fertility context, such as in the three countries under consideration, where fertility postponement is expected to stop sometime in upcoming decades, the medium assumptions of constancy contain an implicit decline in the forecasted level of fertility. Both tempo and cohort perspectives on projected fertility reveal this conclusion. Consequently, we suggest that agencies should deal explicitly with the prospect of postponement and their effect on fertility levels. The Bongaarts-Feeney framework or similar ones could be used. We also provide examples of three consistent variants (low, medium, and high) in the case of Germany, and show that such a forecast can in some cases outperform the usual constant level forecast in a low-fertility context.

There is a strong interdependency between public transfers and the shape of the economic life-cycle. Austria and Sweden are very similar economies in terms of production, income and the size of the public sector. There are however remarkable differences in the design of public transfers, their distribution over age-groups and consequently in the shape of the average economic life-cycle: One of the most remarkable differences is the earlier labour force exit age in Austria. The period of active labour force participation is consequently more compressed in Austria, leading to higher contributions to the public transfer system for the age-groups 20-45 and to a higher share of public transfers directed to the elderly. Using economic dependency ratios we show that the sustainability of the public transfer system depends less on its size than on its design: The Swedish system collects the contributions from a wider range of age-groups, transfers a smaller share to the elderly and provides more support to younger generations, supporting them to invest in own children. These characteristics have a positive effect on the sustainability of the Swedish system: Although in Sweden there is a larger share of the population in the age-group 60+, the total economic dependency of the elderly is lower.

We examine within a life-cycle set-up the simultaneous choice of health care and retirement (together with consumption), when health care contributes to both a reduction in mortality and in morbidity. Health tends to impact on retirement via morbidity, determining the disutility of work, and through longevity, determining the need to accumulate retirement wealth. In contrast, the age of retirement drives health through changes in the value of survival and the value of morbidity reductions. We apply our model to analyse the effects of moral hazard in the annuity market: While moral hazard always induces excessive health investments and an excessive duration of working life it also triggers an excessive level of consumption if the impact of health on the disutility of work is sufficiently large. We examine a transfer scheme and mandatory retirement as policies to curtail moral hazard. Numerical analysis illustrates the working of our model.

In this paper, we discuss the role of a diverse set of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences, namely the Austrian, Berlin-Brandenburg, Russian and Norwegian academies and the Royal Society. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies across these academies, regulating the number of elections and influencing their age structure. We illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state and transient dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and agecompositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing tradeoffs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further note that academies need to take into consideration their current age structure before enacting this type of intake regime as the potential of (negative) momentum could be sizable.

Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The model explains the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off during the transition explains why in modern economies high growth of productivity and income is associated with low or negative population growth. Because growth in modern economies is based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are much better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.

"Verknüpfte Arbeitgeber-Arbeitnehmer (Panel-) Datensätze gewinnen in der Analyse von Arbeitsmärkten zunehmend an Bedeutung. In Zusammenarbeit mit Statistik Austria haben wir den Aufbau eines verknüpften Arbeitgeber-Arbeitnehmer Panel-Datensatzes für Österreich über die Jahre 2002 bis 2005 initiiert. Das Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, diesen Datensatz einem größeren Publikum gegenüber bekannt zu machen. Zunächst stellen wir dessen Aufbau vor, wobei wir explizit sowohl auf die zugrunde liegenden Datenquellen als auch die Verknüpfungsprozedur eingehen. In einem weiteren Schritt präsentieren wir deskriptive Statistiken der im Datensatz enthaltenen Kernvariablen. Zu diesem Zweck betrachten wir drei unterschiedliche Analyseebenen: die Stichprobe als Ganzes, die Firmenebene sowie das einzelne Individuum." (Autorenreferat) "Matched employer-employee (panel) data sets are gaining increasing importance in the analysis of labour markets. In collaboration with Statistics Austria we recently initiated the set up of a matched employer-employee panel data set for Austria, which covers the years 2002-2005. The aim of the paper is to introduce the data set to a broader audience. We first present the set up of the panel data, indicating in more detail the data sources and matching procedure underlying the matched employer-employee data set for Austria. In a second step we show descriptive statistics of the main variables included in our data set. These various statistics encompass three levels of analysis: the aggregate level (i.e. the entire sample), firm level and individual (employee) level." (author's abstract)

There is a strong interdependency between public transfers and the shape of the economic life-cycle. Austria and Sweden are very similar economies in terms of production, income and the size of the public sector. There are however remarkable differences in the design of public transfers, their distribution over age-groups and consequently in the shape of the average economic life-cycle: One of the most remarkable differences is the earlier labour force exit age in Austria. The period of active labour force participation is consequently more compressed in Austria, leading to higher contributions to the public transfer system for the age-groups 20-45 and to a higher share of public transfers directed to the elderly. Using economic dependency ratios we show that the sustainability of the public transfer system depends less on its size than on its design: The Swedish system collects the contributions from a wider range of age-groups, transfers a smaller share to the elderly and provides more support to younger generations, supporting them to invest in own children. These characteristics have a positive effect on the sustainability of the Swedish system: Although in Sweden there is a larger share of the population in the age-group 60+, the total economic dependency of the elderly is lower.

This article introduces a social planner version of a model central to the New Economic Geography for explicitly answering whether the symmetric equilibrium outcome of the decentralized market economy is socially desirable. We find that savings incentives are too weak, resulting in an inefficiently low capital stock and therefore an inadequate number of product varieties. The optimal subsidy and taxation scheme to remedy these distortions resulting from the monopolistic competition structure is shown to be a sales subsidy financed by a lump-sum tax that results in marginal cost pricing. Interestingly, implementing this optimal policy might actually destroy the stability of the symmetric equilibrium and result in unintended agglomeration processes.

This paper investigates the role of recent pension reforms for the development of the social security system and economic growth in Austria. We use a computable general equilibrium model that is built up of overlapping generations that differ by their household structure, longevity, educational attainment, and capital accumulation. Each household optimally decides over its consumption paths, work effort, and retirement age according to the life-cycle theory of labor, while they face survival risk. We find that the pension reforms implemented from 2000 to 2004, although in the correct direction, are not sufficient to solve the labor market distortion caused by the Austrian PAYG pension system. Using alternative policy options, our simulations indicate that a change to a notional defined contribution system and an increase in the educational distribution of the work force would increase the incentive for later retirement ages and thereby increase labor supply and economic growth.

In this article, the official fertility projections of the statistical agencies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are examined. We refer to the literature on this topic and the history of fertility projections in all three countries. We conclude that the basis of fertility projections is the persistence of the present. We then investigate the most recent projections in more detail – with special regard for their consistency of timing and level changes of fertility. This shows that in the low fertility context, such as in the three countries under consideration, where fertility postponement is expected to stop sometime in upcoming decades, the medium assumptions of constancy contain an implicit decline in the forecasted level of fertility. Both tempo and cohort perspectives on projected fertility reveal this conclusion. Consequently, we suggest that agencies should deal explicitly with the prospect of postponement and their effect on fertility levels. The Bongaarts-Feeney framework or similar ones could be used. We also provide examples of three consistent variants (low, medium, and high) in the case of Germany, and show that such a forecast can in some cases outperform the usual constant level forecast in a low-fertility context. In diesem Artikel werden die offiziellen Fertilitätsprognosen der Statistischen Ämter in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz untersucht. Zunächst betrachten wir für alle drei Länder die historische Entwicklung der Fertilitätsprognosen. Es zeigt sich, dass in allen drei Ländern die Fertilitätsprognosen auf einer Fortschreibung der aktuellen Fertilitätsentwicklungen in die Zukunft beruhen. Im Anschluss untersuchen wir detailliert die aktuellen Prognosen – mit besonderer Berücksichtigung ihrer Beschaffenheit im Hinblick auf die Veränderungen im Timing und Quantum der Fertilität. Wir zeigen, dass die Annahmen zum erwarteten Ende des Anstiegs des durchschnittlichen Gebäralters im Prognosezeitraum einen Rückgang im Quantum der Fertilität implizieren. Dies ist insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund niedriger Geburtenziffern, wie sie in den drei betrachteten Ländern vorherrschen, von Relevanz. Analoge Schlussfolgerungen zeigen sich, wenn wir von einer Kohortenperspektive ausgehen. Basierend auf diesen Ergebnissen, schlagen wir vor, explizit die Verschiebung des durchschnittlichen Gebäralters und deren Auswirkung auf die Fertilitätsniveaus zu berücksichtigen. Dies könnte mittels des Bongaarts-Feeney-Ansatzes zur Tempokorrektur oder auf Grundlage eines ähnlichen Tempoansatzes geschehen. Zudem zeigen wir drei konsistente Varianten (niedrig, mittel und hoch) am Beispiel von Deutschland und weisen nach, dass eine entsprechende Berechnungen unter Berücksichtigung des Tempoansatzes in den meisten Fällen die mittlere Variante der Prognose, die von einem konstanten Niveau der Fertilität ausgeht, übertreffen kann.

Matched employer-employee (panel) data sets are gaining increasing importance in the analysis of labour markets. In collaboration with Statistics Austria we recently initiated the set up of a matched employer-employee panel data set for Austria, which covers the years 2002-2005. The aim of the paper is to introduce the data set to a broader audience. We first present the set up of the panel data, indicating in more detail the data sources and matching procedure underlying the matched employer-employee data set for Austria. In a second step we show descriptive statistics of the main variables included in our data set. These various statistics encompass three levels of analysis: the aggregate level (i.e. the entire sample), firm level and individual (employee) level.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effectivity of family policies in the context of different assumptions regarding the social structure of a society. We use an agent based simulation model to analyse the impact of family policies on individual fertility decisions and on cohort fertility, intended fertility, and the fertility gap on the aggregate level. The crucial features of our simulation model are the agents' heterogeneity with respect to age, income, parity, and intended fertility, the social network and social influence. Our results indicate that both fixed and income dependent child supports have a positive and significant impact on fertility. However, several network and social influence parameters have the ability not only to influence fertility itself but also the effectivity of family policies. Therefore, policymakers aiming to transfer a certain policy mix that has proved successful from one country to another one ignoring differences in the social structure may fail. Family policies can only be successful if they explicitly take into account the characteristics of the society they are assigned for.

Academic women in Austria and Germany have extraordinarily high final levels of childlessness of 45-60%, as documented by prior research. This study investigates how female scientists' fertility behaviour relates to their childbearing ideals and intentions in Austria. It analyses whether high childlessness and low numbers of children are intended or not. By looking additionally at employment conditions and partnership status, this study points to possible obstacles hindering couples to realise their childbearing desires. Furthermore, it shows how female scientists combine their academic career and childcare. The analysis is based on a sample of female scientists who had applied for a grant at the Austrian Academy of Sciences (n=196). It comprises women aged 25-45 who work in different scientific fields in Austria. Female scientists aged 40-45 have 0.9 children on average and 44% remain childless. However, these levels are far from the number of offspring that young scientists under the age of 35 intend to have. They perceive on average two as their ideal and intended number; only around 10% want to stay childless. Several obstacles which impede childbearing were identified, e.g. the strong work commitment of the female scientists, the need to be geographically mobile and the high prevalence of living apart together relationships. As for the combination of work and family, female scientists return back to work quickly after they have a child. Most do not regard the family as the main caregiver but perceive a division of tasks between the family and the public as preferable.

The current demographic developments and their consequences for workforce ageing challenge the sustainability of intergenerational transfers and economic growth. A shrinking share of the young workforce will have to support a growing share of elderly, non-working people. Therefore, the productivity of the workforce is central to a sustainable economic future. In order to study the relation between the age structure of employees and labour productivity at the firm level, we use a new matched employer-employee panel data set for Austrian firms spanning the period 2002- 2005. These data allow us to account simultaneously for socio-demographic characteristics of the employees as well as firm heterogeneity to explain labour productivity. Our results clearly show that the age-productivity as well as age-wage profile have a strong industry-specific component. In the service sector, an ageing workforce does not necessarily imply a negative productivity effect. Moreover, we cannot find any evidence for an overpayment of elderly employees.

Matched employer-employee (panel) data sets are gaining increasing importance in the analysis of labour markets. In collaboration with Statistics Austria we recently initiated the set up of a matched employer-employee panel data set for Austria, which covers the years 2002-2005. The aim of the paper is to introduce the data set to a broader audience. We first present the set up of the panel data, indicating in more detail the data sources and matching procedure underlying the matched employer-employee data set for Austria. In a second step we show descriptive statistics of the main variables included in our data set. These various statistics encompass three levels of analysis: the aggregate level (i.e. the entire sample), firm level and individual (employee) level. Verknüpfte Arbeitgeber-Arbeitnehmer (Panel-) Datensätze gewinnen in der Analyse von Arbeitsmärkten zunehmend an Bedeutung. In Zusammenarbeit mit Statistik Austria haben wir den Aufbau eines verknüpften Arbeitgeber- Arbeitnehmer Panel-Datensatzes für Österreich über die Jahre 2002 bis 2005 initiiert. Das Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, diesen Datensatz einem größeren Publikum gegenüber bekannt zu machen. Zunächst stellen wir dessen Aufbau vor, wobei wir explizit sowohl auf die zugrunde liegenden Datenquellen als auch die Verknüpfungsprozedur eingehen. In einem weiteren Schritt präsentieren wir deskriptive Statistiken der im Datensatz enthaltenen Kernvariablen. Zu diesem Zweck betrachten wir drei unterschiedliche Analyseebenen: die Stichprobe als Ganzes, die Firmenebene sowie das einzelne Individuum.

The reproductive value (see Fisher 1930) arises as part of the shadow price of the population in a large class of age-structured optimal control models.

The purpose of this article is to identify the role of population size, population growth and population ageing in models of endogenous economic growth. While in exogenous growth models demographic variables are linked to economic prosperity mainly via the population size, the structure of the workforce, and the capital intensity of workers, endogenous growth models and their successors also allow for interrelationships between demography and technological change. However, most of the existing literature considers only the interrelationships based on population size and its growth rate and does not explicitly account for population ageing. The aim of this paper is (a) to review the role of population size and population growth in the most commonly used economic growth models (with a focus on endogenous economic growth models), (b) discuss models that also allow for population ageing, and (c) sketch out the policy implications of the most commonly used endogenous growth models and compare them to each other.

We study socially vs. individually optimal lifecycle allocations of consumption and health care, when individual health expenditure curbs own mortality but also has a spillover effect on other persons' survival. Such spillovers arise, for instance, when health care activity at aggregate level triggers improvements in treatment through learningbydoing (positive externality) or a deterioration in the quality of care through congestion (negative externality). We combine an agestructured optimal control model at population level with a conventional lifecycle model to derive the social and private value of life. We then examine how individual incentives deviate from social incentives and how they can be aligned by way of a transfer scheme. The agepatterns of socially and individually optimal health expenditure and the transfer rate are derived. Numerical analysis illustrates the workings of our model.

Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate R&D-based growth into a unified growth setup with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.