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1. Advanced HIV disease and engagement in care among patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: results from a multi-state model

Author

Patten, Gabriela E, Euvrard, Jonathan, Anderegg, Nanina, Boulle, Andrew, Arendse, Kirsten D, von der Heyden, Erin, Ford, Nathan, and Davies, Mary-Ann

Subjects
Infectious Diseases, Immunology, Immunology and Allergy, 610 Medicine & health, 360 Social problems & social services
Abstract

OBJECTIVE Despite improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people with HIV (PWH), HIV continues to contribute considerably to morbidity and mortality. Increasingly, advanced HIV disease (AHD) is found among PWH who are ART-experienced. DESIGN Using a multi-state model we examined associations between engagement with care and AHD on ART in South Africa. METHODS Using data from IeDEA Southern Africa, we included PWH from South Africa, initiating ART from 2004 to 2017 aged more than 5 years with a CD4+ cell count at ART start and at least one subsequent measure. We defined a gap as no visit for at least 18 months. Five states were defined: 'AHD on ART' (CD4+ cell count 18 months from ART start) and 'Death'. RESULTS Among 32 452 PWH, men and those aged 15-25 years were more likely to progress to unfavourable states. Later years of ART start were associated with a lower probability of transitioning from AHD to clinically stable, increasing the risk of death following AHD. In stratified analyses, those starting ART with AHD in later years were more likely to re-engage in care with AHD following a gap and to die following AHD on ART. CONCLUSION In more recent years, those with AHD on ART were more likely to die, and AHD at re-engagement in care increased. To further reduce HIV-related mortality, efforts to address the challenges facing these more vulnerable patients are needed.

Published
2022

2. Risk Factors for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Death in a Population Cohort Study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Author

Boulle, Andrew, Davies, Mary-Ann, Hussey, Hannah, Ismail, Muzzammil, Morden, Erna, Vundle, Ziyanda, Zweigenthal, Virginia, Mahomed, Hassan, Paleker, Masudah, Pienaar, David, Tembo, Yamanya, Lawrence, Charlene, Isaacs, Washiefa, Mathema, Hlengani, Allen, Derick, Allie, Taryn, Bam, Jamy-Lee, Buddiga, Kasturi, Dane, Pierre, Heekes, Alexa, Matlapeng, Boitumelo, Mutemaringa, Themba, Muzarabani, Luckmore, Phelanyane, Florence, Pienaar, Rory, Rode, Catherine, Smith, Mariette, Tiffin, Nicki, Zinyakatira, Nesbert, Cragg, Carol, Marais, Frederick, Mudaly, Vanessa, Voget, Jacqueline, Davids, Jody, Roodt, Francois, van Zyl Smit, Nellis, Vermeulen, Alda, Adams, Kevin, Audley, Gordon, Bateman, Kathleen, Beckwith, Peter, Bernon, Marc, Blom, Dirk, Boloko, Linda, Botha, Jean, Boutall, Adam, Burmeister, Sean, Cairncross, Lydia, Calligaro, Gregory, Coccia, Cecilia, Corin, Chadwin, Daroowala, Remy, Dave, Joel A, De Bruyn, Elsa, De Villiers, Martin, Deetlefs, Mimi, Dlamini, Sipho, Du Toit, Thomas, Endres, Wilhelm, Europa, Tarin, Fieggan, Graham, Figaji, Anthony, Frankenfeld, Petro, Gatley, Elizabeth, Gina, Phindile, Govender, Evashan, Grobler, Rochelle, Gule, Manqoba Vusumuzi, Hanekom, Christoff, Held, Michael, Heynes, Alana, Hlatswayo, Sabelo, Hodkinson, Bridget, Holtzhausen, Jeanette, Hoosain, Shakeel, Jacobs, Ashely, Kahn, Miriam, Kahn, Thania, Khamajeet, Arvin, Khan, Joubin, Khan, Riaasat, Khwitshana, Alicia, Knight, Lauren, Kooverjee, Sharita, Krogscheepers, Rene, Kruger, Jean Jacque, Kuhn, Suzanne, Laubscher, Kim, Lazarus, John, Le Roux, Jacque, Lee Jones, Scott, Levin, Dion, Maartens, Gary, Majola, Thina, Manganyi, Rodgers, Marais, David, Marais, Suzaan, Maritz, Francois, Maughan, Deborah, Mazondwa, Simthandile, Mbanga, Luyanda, Mbatani, Nomonde, Mbena, Bulewa, Meintjes, Graeme, Mendelson, Marc, Möller, Ernst, Moore, Allison, Ndebele, Babalwa, Nortje, Marc, Ntusi, Ntobeko, Nyengane, Funeka, Ofoegbu, Chima, Papavarnavas, Nectarios, Peter, Jonny, Pickard, Henri, Pluke, Kent, Raubenheimer, Peter J, Robertson, Gordon, Rozmiarek, Julius, Sayed, A, Scriba, Matthias, Sekhukhune, Hennie, Singh, Prasun, Smith, Elsabe, Soldati, Vuyolwethu, Stek, Cari, van den berg, Robert, van der Merwe, Le Roux, Venter, Pieter, Vermooten, Barbra, Viljoen, Gerrit, Viranna, Santhuri, Vogel, Jonno, Vundla, Nokubonga, Wasserman, Sean, Zitha, Eddy, Lomas-Marais, Vanessa, Lombard, Annie, Stuve, Katrin, Viljoen, Werner, Basson, De Vries, Le Roux, Sue, Linden-Mars, Ethel, Victor, Lizanne, Wates, Mark, Zwanepoel, Elbe, Ebrahim, Nabilah, Lahri, Sa’ad, Mnguni, Ayanda, Crede, Thomas, de Man, Martin, Evans, Katya, Hendrikse, Clint, Naude, Jonathan, Parak, Moosa, Szymanski, Patrick, Van Koningsbruggen, Candice, Abrahams, Riezaah, Allwood, Brian, Botha, Christoffel, Botha, Matthys Henndrik, Broadhurst, Alistair, Claasen, Dirkie, Daniel, Che, Dawood, Riyaadh, du Preez, Marie, Du Toit, Nicolene, Erasmus, Kobie, Koegelenberg, Coenraad F N, Gabriel, Shiraaz, Hugo, Susan, Jardine, Thabiet, Johannes, Clint, Karamchand, Sumanth, Lalla, Usha, Langenegger, Eduard, Louw, Eize, Mashigo, Boitumelo, Mhlana, Nonte, Mnqwazi, Chizama, Moodley, Ashley, Moodley, Desiree, Moolla, Saadiq, Mowlana, Abdurasiet, Nortje, Andre, Olivier, Elzanne, Parker, Arifa, Paulsen, Chané, Prozesky, Hans, Rood, Jacques, Sabela, Tholakele, Schrueder, Neshaad, Sithole, Nokwanda, Sithole, Sthembiso, Taljaard, Jantjie J, Titus, Gideon, Van Der Merwe, Tian, van Schalkwyk, Marije, Vazi, Luthando, Viljoen, Abraham J, Yazied Chothia, Mogamat, Naidoo, Vanessa, Wallis, Lee Alan, Abbass, Mumtaz, Arendse, Juanita, Armien, Rizqa, Bailey, Rochelle, Bello, Muideen, Carelse, Rachel, Forgus, Sheron, Kalawe, Nosi, Kariem, Saadiq, Kotze, Mariska, Lucas, Jonathan, McClaughlin, Juanita, Murie, Kathleen, Najjaar, Leilah, Petersen, Liesel, Porter, James, Shaw, Melanie, Stapar, Dusica, Williams, Michelle, Aldum, Linda, Berkowitz, Natacha, Girran, Raakhee, Lee, Kevin, Naidoo, Lenny, Neumuller, Caroline, Anderson, Kim, Begg, Kerrin, Boerlage, Lisa, Cornell, Morna, de Waal, Renée, Dudley, Lilian, English, René, Euvrard, Jonathan, Groenewald, Pam, Jacob, Nisha, Jaspan, Heather, Kalk, Emma, Levitt, Naomi, Malaba, Thoko, Nyakato, Patience, Patten, Gabriela, Schneider, Helen, Shung King, Maylene, Tsondai, Priscilla, Van Duuren, James, van Schaik, Nienke, Blumberg, Lucille, Cohen, Cheryl, Govender, Nelesh, Jassat, Waasila, Kufa, Tendesayi, McCarthy, Kerrigan, Morris, Lynn, Hsiao, Nei-yuan, Marais, Ruan, Ambler, Jon, Ngwenya, Olina, Osei-Yeboah, Richard, Johnson, Leigh, Kassanjee, Reshma, and Tamuhla, Tsaone

Subjects
sub-Saharan Africa, 0301 basic medicine, Microbiology (medical), Adult, Male, Tuberculosis, antiretroviral, 030106 microbiology, Population, HIV Infections, HIV Infections/complications, Cohort Studies, South Africa, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Major Article, Medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, Proportional Hazards Models, education.field_of_study, South Africa/epidemiology, business.industry, Proportional hazards model, SARS-CoV-2, Hazard ratio, HIV, Correction, COVID-19, medicine.disease, Confidence interval, AcademicSubjects/MED00290, Infectious Diseases, Standardized mortality ratio, tuberculosis, Attributable risk, business, Viral load, Demography
Abstract

Background Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. Methods We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates. Results Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID-19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1). Conclusions While our findings may overestimate HIV- and tuberculosis-associated COVID-19 mortality risks due to residual confounding, both living with HIV and having current tuberculosis were independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. The associations between age, sex, and other comorbidities and COVID-19 mortality were similar to those in other settings.

Published
2021

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