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Background An increase in fire weather is expected in a warming climate, but its translation to fire activity (fire numbers and sizes) remains largely unknown. Additionally, disentangling the extent to which geographic and seasonal extensions as well as intensification contribute to future fire activity remain largely unknown. Aims We aimed to assess the impact of future climate change on fire activity in southeastern France and estimate changes in spatial and seasonal distributions. Methods We projected future fire activities using a Bayesian modelling framework combined with ensemble climate simulations. Changes in numbers of escaped fires (>1 ha), large fires (>100 ha) and burned area were studied for different emission scenarios or degrees of global warming. Key results Fire activity could increase by up to +180% for +4°C of global warming, with large expansions of fire-prone regions and long seasonal lengthenings. Overall, changes will be dominated by intensification within the historical fire niche, representing two-thirds of additional future fire activity, half of this occurring during the high fire season. Conclusions This study confirms that major changes in fire niches would be expected in Euro-Mediterranean regions. Implications Long-term strategic policies for adapting prevention and suppression resources and ecosystems are needed to account for such changes.

Purpose: Optimizing return to work after knee arthroplasty is becoming more important because of the growing incidence of KA among workers and poor return to work outcomes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of Back At work After Surgery (BAAS): an integrated clinical pathway for return to work after knee arthroplasty. Method: Working patients who received unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) between January 2021 and November 2021, younger than 65 years and motivated to return to work were eligible to participate. Feasibility was investigated on five domains: reach, dose delivered, dose received, fidelity and patients’ attitudes. These outcomes were obtained by a patient-reported questionnaire and an interview with the occupational case manager and medical case manager.Results: Of the eligible 29 patients, eleven were willing to participate (response rate 38%; due to travel distance to and from the hospital). The dose delivered was between 91 and 100%, except information given about return to work from the orthopedic surgeon which was 18%. The dose received was 100%. For fidelity, case managers reported nine shortcomings for which five solutions were mentioned. In terms of patients’ attitude, all patients were satisfied and one patient mentioned an improvement. Conclusions: In terms of reach, participation was low: only 29%. The BAAS clinical pathway seems feasible based on dose delivered, dose received, fidelity and patient attitudes. The next step is to assess the effectiveness of the BAAS clinical pathway for return to work.

Background: Globally, efforts to curtail the HIV pandemic are growing. The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners set the 95-95-95 targets to be achieved by 2025. Tanzania’s ongoing transition from single-month ARV to longer multi-month dispensing (MMD) involves significant planning and shifts in existing resources, including health commodities, clinical staff and storage space. This study aimed at evaluating the costs and efficiency gains of rolling out MMD compared to the prior monthly dispending (MD) standard of care before the new guidelines. Methods: The analysis employed a health provider perspective utilising prior costing data collected to estimate cost of treatment for HIV/AIDS, including salaries, laboratory costs, antiretroviral drugs, other supplies and overhead costs. The projections were run from 2018 to 2030 using the Spectrum package for Tanzania. Results: Our model estimated that total treatment cost without MMD (including salaries, laboratory costs, antiretroviral drugs, other supplies, and overhead costs) is estimated to rise from USD 189 million in 2018 to USD 244 million in 2030. The introduction of a six-month MMD would lead to the total annual facility-based treatment costs being reduced to USD 205 million in 2030. When comparing MD to a six-month MMD, the total savings over the 13-year period would be USD 425 million. The introduction of six-month MMD for stable patients would reduce the average cost from USD 180 to USD 156 per patient per year if stable patients were only required to make six-monthly visit. Conclusions: The introduction of differentiated service delivery models (DSDMs) and MMD is already contributing to significant cost savings for Tanzania and will continue to do so as the country puts more stable patients on MMD. The potential gains from MMD implantation could further be harnessed if retention of treatment and viral suppression monitoring are prioritised.

En esta propuesta de mejoramiento busca generar alternativas para aumentar la producción en el área de Clavel de la empresa Sagaro ubicada en el municipio de Cota (Cundinamarca), para ello es necesario identificar las variables principales que afectan la producción de clavel en la finca, basándonos en la metodología Stanford para la toma de decisiones estratégicas, cada una de estas variables será estudiada con detenimiento en el capítulo 10 para generar estrategias que permitan a la empresa desarrollar su potencial productivo acorde a las proyecciones realizadas previamente por la misma en el área de clavel. Para cada una de estas variables se mostrará el impacto en términos porcentuales que puede llegar a generar en los indicadores productivos teniendo en cuenta el manejo realizando en los procesos que definen dichas variables dentro de la compañía. Esta propuesta de mejoramiento busca potenciar productivamente a la empresa Sagaro, así mismo busca que a partir de los datos recolectados, se pueda replicar a cualquier otra organización con características similares. Hay que tener en cuenta que la toma de decisiones debe considerar el costo beneficio de las estrategias propuestas cómo se mostrará más adelante. This work seeks to generate a proposal for productive improvement in the Carnation area of the Sagaro company located in the municipality of Cota, for this it is necessary to identify the main variables that affect carnation production on the farm, based on the Stanford methodology. For strategic decision-making, each of these variables will be carefully studied to generate strategies that allow the company to develop its productive potential according to the projections previously made by it in the carnation area. For each of these variables we will show the impact in percentage terms that it can generate in the productive indicators taking into account the management carried out in the processes that define these variables within the company. This evaluation proposal seeks to promote the Sagaro company productively, likewise it is sought that from the data collected, it can be replicated to any other organization with similar characteristics, taking into account that decision-making must consider the cost benefit of the proposed strategies. Especialista en Gerencia de Empresas Agropecuarias Especialización

This research is to analyze the potential of local taxes and their achievement targets in Serang Regency. The research approach used is quantitative. Data collection techniques with documentation studies using secondary data from various documents from several agencies. The analysis technique used is projection analysis with reference to macroeconomic indicators, the weight prediction of obstacles and opportunities refers to the IFAS-EFAS matrix. The results of the study show that first, the determination of tax potential and targets must be carried out scientifically referring to the juridical basis and economic indicators which refer to both national and regional economic growth and the weight of the obstacles faced in tax management based on expert judgment., Penelitian ini untuk menganalisis potensi pajak daerah dan target capaiannya di Kabupaten Serang. Pendekatan penelitian yang digunakan kuantitatif. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan studi dokumentasi menggunakan data sekunder dari berbagai dokumen dari beberapa instansi. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis proyeksi dengan mengacu indikator ekonomi makro, prediksi bobot hambatan dan peluang mengacu pada matrik IFAS-EFAS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pertama, Penentuan Potensi dan Target Pajak harus dilakukan secara ilmiah mengacu pada landasan yuridis dan indikator perekonomian yang mengacu pada pertumbuhan ekonomi baik Nasional maupun Regional dan bobot kendala yang dihadapi dalam pengelolaan pajak berdasarkan penilaian pakar.

Although the performance of popular optimization algorithms such as the Douglas-Rachford splitting (DRS) and the ADMM is satisfactory in small and well-scaled problems, ill conditioning and problem size pose a severe obstacle to their reliable employment. Expanding on recent convergence results for DRS and ADMM applied to nonconvex problems, we propose two linesearch algorithms to enhance and robustify these methods by means of quasi-Newton directions. The proposed algorithms are suited for nonconvex problems, require the same black-box oracle of DRS and ADMM, and maintain their (subsequential) convergence properties. Numerical evidence shows that the employment of L-BFGS in the proposed framework greatly improves convergence of DRS and ADMM, making them robust to ill conditioning. Under regularity and nondegeneracy assumptions at the limit point, superlinear convergence is shown when quasi-Newton Broyden directions are adopted.

We present “EU-Trees4F”, a dataset of current and future potential distributions of 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. We provide both climatically suitable future areas of occupancy and the future distribution expected under a scenario of natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time steps (2035, 2065, and 2095). Also, we provide a version of the dataset where tree ranges are limited by future land use. These data-driven projections were made using an ensemble species distribution model calibrated using EU-Forest, a comprehensive dataset of tree species occurrences for Europe, and driven by seven bioclimatic parameters derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations, and two soil parameters. “EU-Trees4F”, can benefit various research fields, including forestry, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and bio-economy. Possible applications include the calibration or benchmarking of dynamic vegetation models, or informing forest adaptation strategies based on assisted tree migration. Given the multiple European policy initiatives related to forests, this dataset represents a timely and valuable resource to support policymaking.

Recently, the number and intensity of hydrological droughts have been increasing; thus, it is necessary to identify and respond to them quickly. Since the primary hydrological data in Lithuania are water levels, and converting these data into discharge takes additional time, there is a need to develop a methodology or adapt these data to analyze and detect hydrological droughts. This paper examines the concept of the standardized water level index (SWLI) calculation, which is based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI) methods. SDI and SWLI data were compared; SWLI was used to analyze the situation in the past and future. A total of 15 main sub-basins were considered, and the future discharge of three rivers was estimated; SWLI showed good compatibility with SDI. To better analyze droughts, the use of severe drought threshold values (SDTV) was suggested as some river data (especially those for small rivers) needed to be corrected due to dense riverine flora. The dry years and trends identified by SWLI are consistent with previous studies. Keywords: hydrological droughts; Lithuanian rivers; HBV model; SWLI; SDI; trends; projections

Представленная статья ставит своей целью проанализировать концептуальные модели, которые ярко проявляются в спортивном дискурсионном пространстве в англоязычных и русскоязычных электронных СМИ. Диалектическая соотнесенность рассматриваемых концептов позволяет выявить набор коррелирующих элементов, с помощью которых реализуется метафорическое сопоставление. Метафора как стилистическое средство в целом, так и спортивные метафорические модели в частности, достаточно долго оставались предметом пристального внимания представителей различного гуманитарного знания. Новизна предпринятого исследования заключается в специфике репрезентации военной метафоры в русскоязычной и англоязычной (британской) массмедийной культуре., The present article attempts to analyse the conceptual models that are prominently manifested in the sports discourse space in the English- and Russian-language electronic media. The dialectical correlation of the examined concepts makes it possible to identify a set of correlating elements through which the metaphorical juxtaposition is realized. Metaphor as a stylistic means in general, and sports metaphorical models in particular, have long remained the subject of close attention of representatives of various humanitarian studies. The novelty of the attempted research lies in the specificity of military metaphor representation in Russian and English (British) media culture., Russian Linguistic Bulletin, Выпуск 4 (40) 2023

Autopsy data indicate that the locus coeruleus (LC) is one of the first sites in the brain to accumulate hyperphosphorylated tau pathology, with the rostral part possibly being more vulnerable in the earlier stages of the disease. Taking advantage of recent developments in ultra-high field (7 T) imaging, we investigated whether imaging measures of the LC also reveal a specific anatomic correlation with tau using novel plasma biomarkers of different species of hyperphosphorylated tau, how early in adulthood these associations can be detected and if are associated with worse cognitive performance. To validate the anatomic correlations, we tested if a rostro-caudal gradient in tau pathology is also detected at autopsy in data from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP). We found that higher plasma measures of phosphorylated tau, in particular ptau231, correlated negatively with dorso-rostral LC integrity, whereas correlations for neurodegenerative plasma markers (neurofilament light, total tau) were scattered throughout the LC including middle to caudal sections. In contrast, the plasma Aβ42/40 ratio, associated with brain amyloidosis, did not correlate with LC integrity. These findings were specific to the rostral LC and not observed when using the entire LC or the hippocampus. Furthermore, in the MAP data, we observed higher rostral than caudal tangle density in the LC, independent of the disease stage. The in vivo LC-phosphorylated tau correlations became significant from midlife, with the earliest effect for ptau231, starting at about age 55. Finally, interactions between lower rostral LC integrity and higher ptau231 concentrations predicted lower cognitive performance. Together, these findings demonstrate a specific rostral vulnerability to early phosphorylated tau species that can be detected with dedicated magnetic resonance imaging measures, highlighting the promise of LC imaging as an early marker of AD-related processes.

Wind energy is one of the most important ways to implement green energy in Lithuania. The development of wind energy infrastructure by state funding is directly related to wind energy resources. Changes in wind energy resources induced by ongoing climate change have not been well analyzed either in Lithuania or in Europe or worldwide. This article analyses data taken from long-term wind observations and IPCC projections. It was found that during the last decades (1980–2019), the wind speed in Lithuania decreased up to 0.69 m/s in the coastal region and up to 0.24 m/s in the central part of Lithuania. The decrease in wind speed caused a decrease in generated energy by 15.6 % and 17.8 % in the coastal and the central parts of Lithuania. Analysis of wind speed projections for the period 2010–2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, has shown that the average annual wind speed would decrease by 7.3 % in Lithuanian’s coastal region and 8.8 % the central region by the end of the century. The change in wind speed will cause up to a 25 % reduction in wind potential. As the average lifetime of wind turbines is about 25 years, the amount of electricity generated during this period will be up to 20 % lower than planned at the design stage.

Predstava Kolona...opet diplomski je rad kolegice Hane Schonfeld i moje malenkosti. Pod stručnim vodstvom profesora Jasmina Novljakovića i njegovog asistenta Marijana Josipovića, udružili smo snage sa studentima Neverbalnog teatra i napravili predstavu koja se bavi tematikom rata. Bavi se osjećajima koje proživljavaju ratnici na bojištu, ali i osjećajima koje proživljava njihova obitelj, skrivajući se i čekajući ih da se vrate. To nije klasična dramska prestava, već predstava koja se temeljila na fizičkom i vizualnom teatru. The play Colon...again is the graduate work of my colleague Hana Schonfeld and me. Under the leadership of professor Jasmin Novljaković and his assistant Marijan Josipović, we joined forces with students of Non-verbal theater and created a play dealing with the theme of war. It deals with the feelings experienced by warriors on the battlefield, but also with the feelings experienced by their family waiting for them to return. This is not a classical drama performance, but a performance based on physical and visual theater.

Hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (F-gases) play a substantial role in global warming via the greenhouse effect and thus have been under increased investigation recently. EU member states, including the Czech Republic, already have measures limiting F-gas use based on their GWP such as EU regulation No. 517/2014. This manuscript explains the current status of F-gas emissions and describes a methodology of their estimation for the years 2010 to 2050. The computational method is based on the IPCC 2006 Guidelines. Currently available data, distribution of F-gases and active policies are crucial parameters for standard greenhouse gas emission estimates as well as for long-term projections. The outcomes demonstrate the effectiveness of the regulations implemented and provides a prediction scenario for how F-gas emissions will develop. According to these projections, a total F-gas emission decline is expected in the Czech Republic. For F-gas applications in refrigeration and air-conditioning, the predicted downward trend is more significant compared to the other F-gas application sectors, as they are currently some of the biggest contributors in the actual state of emissions.

ilustraciones El propósito de esta investigación es desarrollar una aproximación conceptual y aplicada para cuantificar y proyectar emisiones de contaminantes atmosféricos generadas por el transporte terrestre por carretera en Colombia. Se construye una ruta metodológica que permite la estimación de emisiones a partir de los kilómetros recorridos anualmente por los vehículos (portales web de ventas vehiculares y revisiones técnico-mecánicas), los factores de emisión de Computer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) y la cantidad de vehículos activos por departamento. La aproximación metodológica para la proyección de emisiones se apoya en el crecimiento del parque automotor según las dinámicas demográficas y económicas del país; se considera constante la actividad y los factores de emisión (valores del año base). El enfoque metodológico se aplicó para la construcción del inventario de emisiones nacionales por el transporte terrestre por carretera del año base 2019 y para su proyección en el período 2020-2050. Se obtiene que los vehículos de carga son la tipología vehicular que más aporta a las emisiones nacionales de contaminantes atmosféricos, representado más del 53% de las emisiones de BC y NO2, y alrededor del 49% de las emisiones de PM2.5. Las motocicletas, que representan alrededor del 58% del parque automotor registrado, es la tipología vehicular que más contribuye a las emisiones de CO. El automóvil contribuye con un 55% y 33% a las emisiones de SO2 y CO2 respectivamente. En cuanto a las proyecciones, las emisiones de CO2 y SO2 aumentarán, mientras que las emisiones de BC, CO, NO2 y PM2.5 tienden a disminuir. Esta ruta metodológica para estimación y proyección de emisiones se convierte en una herramienta que apoya a los tomadores de decisiones con un método confiable para regular y controlar los niveles de emisiones del transporte terrestre por carretera, fortaleciendo así la evaluación de la calidad del aire. (Texto tomado de la fuente). This investigation aims to develop a conceptual and practical approach for quantifying and projecting atmospheric pollutant emissions released by road transport in Colombia. A methodology is developed that enables the estimation of emissions based on the annual mileage traveled by vehicles (technical-mechanical reviews and vehicle sales websites), the Computer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) emission factors, and the number of active vehicles per department. The methodological approach to estimating emissions relies on the growth of the automobile fleet according to the country's demographic and economic dynamics; activity and emission factors will be constant (values of the base year). The methodological approach was used to build the national emissions inventory for road transportation for the base year 2019 and project those emissions for 2020–2050. Cargo vehicles are shown to contribute the most to national emissions of air pollutants, accounting for more than 53% of emissions of BC and NO2, and almost 49% of emissions of PM2.5. The type of vehicle that contributes most to CO emissions is the motorcycle, which represents around 58% of the registered motor fleet. The automobile's contribution to SO2 and CO2 emissions is 55% and 33%, respectively. According to projections, CO2 and SO2 emissions will rise, while BC, CO, NO2, and PM2.5 emissions are expected to decline. This methodology for estimating and forecasting emissions becomes a tool that supports stakeholders by providing a reliable method for regulating and controlling the emissions levels from road-based transportation, strengthening the assessment of air quality. Incluye anexos Maestría Magíster en Ingeniería - Transporte Planeación de la movilidad

Background: The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. Objective: We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. Methods: Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Results: Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. Conclusions: LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide. This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China Excellent Young Scientists Fund (82022064), Natural Science Foundation of China International/Regional Research Collaboration Project (72061137001), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973150), the Natural Science Foundation of China Young Scientist Fund (81703278), the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2018ZX10721102), the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2018ZX10715004), the Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (SZSM201811071), the High Level Project of Medicine in Longhua, Shenzhen (HLPM201907020105), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFC0840900), the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission Basic Research Program (JCYJ20190807155409373), Special Support Plan for High-Level Talents of Guangdong Province (2019TQ05Y230), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (58000-31620005).

Estimating the impact of climate change and emission scenarios on air pollution can be done using regional climate models (RCMs). Climate uncertainties are commonly estimated using RCM ensembles such as provided by EURO-CORDEX. Despite the strong relations between the weather and air pollutants, interactions are usually complex and require meteorological parameters that are not commonly available for the RCM ensembles. Pollution peaks, however, often coincide with stagnant atmospheric conditions that can be captured with widely-available RCM data. We first show that a commonly-used atmospheric stability index that uses rainfall, near-surface and 500 hPa wind speed, relates well to average and extreme air pollutant concentrations over Europe using Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data. We then provide an in-depth validation of 25 RCMs to reproduce the spatio-temporal features of air stagnation by comparison with ERA5. Overall the models were found to reproduce stagnant episodes fairly well, especially after bias correction. The systematic underestimation of stagnation frequency and duration is traced back to overestimated near-surface wind speed for a large group of models at high-elevation regions where the temporal correlations are also low. Regardless of the reference dataset, two model groups are identified that, independent on their resolution, give strongly different results in terms of orographic dependence of surface wind speed. These strong discrepancies underscore the need for bias correction when using RCM data for analysis of stagnation episodes.

Received June 17, 2022; accepted December 28, 2022. Дата поступления 17 июня 2022 г.; дата принятия к печати 28 декабря 2022 г. Relevance. Given the volatile global economy, unfriendly policy towards Russia and other external challenges, it is necessary to improve tools for predicting threats and risks to regional economic security and resilience. To this end, individual projections and indicators, as well as complex models should be examined. Research objective. The study aims to develop a new differentiated approach to diagnostics of indicators (projections) of economic security and resilience at the regional level, which can help visualize and evaluate threats to economic meso-systems. Data and Methods. Comparative and indicative approaches, ranking, piecewise linear approximation (scaling) and correlation analysis were used in the study. Results. As a result, the study presents the author’s system of indicators of economic security and risks to the regional economy based on a differentiated approach. 36 indicators were grouped into 4 projections – general economic, social, technological and financial – and divided into sub-projections. In order to provide adequate and comparable estimates in the regional and temporal context, various methodological principles were used: application of relative indicators; assessment of cost indicators of regional development using the number of fixed market baskets (FMB) of the region (ratio of the regional cost indicator and the cost of a fixed market basket). Such approach allowed us to evaluate regional economic security in dynamics. The diagnostics of resilience of regional economic systems was performed in the context of individual projections by comparing crisis and relatively stable periods. Conclusions. The methodology was tested using data from regions of the Volga Federal District. The study revealed specific projections, sub-projections and indicators affected by threats, as well as demonstrated the ability of regions of the Volga Federal District to face the crisis and, in particular, resist sanctions. Актуальность. Нестабильность ситуации в мировой экономике, недружественные действия ряда стран по отношению к России и другие внешние вызовы ставят задачу совершенствования инструментов диагностики угроз и рисков обеспечения экономической безопасности национальной и региональных экономик с позиции их стрессоустойчивости и стабильности как в разрезе отдельных проекций и индикаторов, так и на основе комплексного моделирования. Целью исследования послужила разработка нового дифференцированного подхода к диагностике индикаторов в разрезе рекомендуемого комплекса проекций экономической безопасности с позиции стрессоустойчивости регионов, позволяющего наглядно представлять и оценивать угрозы экономических систем мезо-уровня. Данные и методы. В ходе исследования были использованы сравнительный, индикативный подходы, ранжирование, метод кусочно-линейной аппроксимации (масштабирования), корреляционный анализ. Результаты. В рамках исследования получены результаты, обладающие научной новизной: предложена авторская система индикаторов экономической безопасности и рисков региональной экономики в рамках дифференцированного подхода с позиции группировки по следующим направлениям – проекциям: общие экономические, социальные, производственно-технологические и финансовые с разбивкой на подпроекции (36 индикаторов), при этом для получения адекватных и сопоставимых оценок в региональном и временном разрезе использован ряд методологических принципов: применение относительных показателей; оценка стоимостных показателей развития региона в количестве фиксированных потребительских корзин (ФПК) региона, т.е. в форме отношения стоимостного индикатора региона к стоимости ФПК, что позволило оценить в динамике уровень угроз экономической безопасности регионов с учетом их региональных особенностей. Также уделено внимание диагностике уровня стрессоустойчивости экономики регионов в разрезе отдельных проекций и в целом относительно периода стабильного развития. Заключение. Диагностика проведена на примере регионов Приволжского федерального округа. Выявлены конкретные проекции, подпроекции и индикаторы, подверженные влиянию угроз в динамике, а также уровень стрессоустойчивости к кризисным, в частности, санкционным факторам, в разрезе регионов ПФО. 现实性：全球经济形势的不稳定、一些国家对俄罗斯的不友好行为以及 其他外部挑战使得改进诊断威胁和风险的工具成为任务。这是为了确保 国家和地区的经济安全。该研究以复杂建模为基础，用抗压能力和稳定 性的指标来单独分析。 研究目标：在预测的经济安全背景下，从区域抗压能力的角度，文章开 发了一种新的差异化指标诊断方法。它可对经济系统的威胁进行可视化 展示和评估。 研究方法：在研究过程中，使用了比较、指示性、排序、分段线性近似 （定标）的研究方法和相关分析。 研究结果：在研究中获得了以下具有科学新颖性的结果：在差异化方法 的框架内，在一定时间和区域内，将经济、社会、生产技术和金融细分 为36个指标，对经济安全和区域经济风险指标进行了分组预测。研究还 评估了区域固定篮子指数的发展成本，即以区域成本指标与固定篮子指 数进行比较，从而评估各区域的动态经济安全威胁。此外，研究还诊断 了在稳定发展时期和特殊时期的区域抗压能力。 结论：研究是以伏尔加联邦区为例进行的。文章确定了该区域在动态中受 到威胁的具体预测和指标，以及对危机，特别是对制裁因素的抗压能力。 The article has been prepared in the framework of the project “Development and substantiation of the concept, integrated model of resilience diagnostics of risks and threats to the security of regional ecosystems and technology of its application based on a digital twin” (grant of the President of the Russian Federation NSh-5187.2022.2 for state support of leading scientific schools of the Russian Federation). Исследование проведено в рамках проекта «Разработка и обоснование концепции, комплексной модели резилиенс-диагностики рисков и угроз безопасности региональных экосистем и технологии ее применения на основе цифрового двойника» (грант Президента Российской Федерации НШ- 5187.2022.2 для государственной поддержки ведущих научных школ Российской Федерации).

Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region’s greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB.

Touring installations, massive concerts, and public art pieces have pushed the field of multi-media spectacle into public awareness, but what processes go into creating these works? The purpose of this thesis is to research and deconstruct the design process of multi-media spectacle events, examining both how and what creates spectacle. In order to better understand this process I examined events with a significant media component and identified elements which I identified as creating spectacle. I then conducted interviews with designers, directors, and other producers of multimedia spectacle to better understand their design processes and philosophies. Based on this research I defined specific elements which can be incorporated into the design process when creating spectacle and applied this research by designing media for three different case studies in which spectacle was a specific goal.

This paper presents results from high-resolution climate change simulations that permit convection and resolve mesoscale orography at 3-km grid spacing over Fenno-Scandinavia using the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) model. Two global climate models (GCMs) have been dynamically down-scaled for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and for both near and far future periods in the 21st century. The warmer and moister climate conditions simulated in the GCMs lead to changes in precipitation characteristics. Higher precipitation amounts are simulated in fall, winter and spring, while in summer, precipitation increases in northern Fenno-Scandinavia and decreases in the southern parts of the domain. Both daily and sub-daily intense precipitation over Fenno-Scandinavia become more frequent at the expense of low-intensity events, with most pronounced shifts in summer. In the Scandinavian mountains, pronounced changes occur in the snow climate with a shift in precipitation falling as snow to rain, reduced snow cover and less days with a significant snow depth. HCLIM at 3-km grid spacing exhibits systematically different change responses in several aspects, e.g. a smaller shift from snow to rain in the western part of the Scandinavian mountains and a more consistent decrease in the urban heat island effect by the end of the 21st century. Most importantly, the high-resolution HCLIM shows a significantly stronger increase in summer hourly precipitation extremes compared to HCLIM at the intermediate 12-km grid spacing. In addition, an analysis of the statistical significance of precipitation changes indicates that simulated time periods of at least a couple of decades is recommended to achieve statistically robust results, a matter of important concern when running such high-resolution climate model experiments. The results presented here emphasizes the importance of using “convection-permitting” models to produce reliable climate change information over the Fenno-Scandinavian region.

Understanding how air pollution events may change in the future is of key importance to decision makers. Multi-model intercomparison projects focussing on atmospheric chemistry and air quality have been performed to inform the latest IPCC assessments. Future anthropogenic emission changes have generally been the foci of such model experiments, envisaged as the dominant driver of future atmospheric composition. The latest model assessments such as AerChemMIP utilise multi-model ensembles but also have limited individual model ensembles which permit different sources of uncertainty to be characterised. The recent study by Fiore et al. (2022) specifically considers a multi-model and multi-member ensemble approach. It adds to the quantification of uncertainty in future projections through delineating uncertainty due to model diversity and due to internal or natural climate variability within the climate system, for mean and high PM2.5 air pollution events over the Eastern USA in the 21st century. Exploring the separate roles of internal climate variability and model diversity adds further value to the important research issue of quantifying how future anthropogenic climate change impacts air quality. Future multi-model intercomparisons need to balance the additional knowledge gained from research into understanding multiple sources of uncertainty that can inform decision making versus the resource costs of performing these experiments using Earth System Models with interactive chemistry.

The climate projections atlas of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Italy) is a tool created to raise awareness and support decision-making in matters related to climate change. The data illustrated in this platform represent the climate projections of daily data that cover the 1971-2100 time frame for the climate models EC-EARTH-CCLM4-8-17, EC-EARTH-RACMO22E, EC-EARTH-RCA4, e MPI-ESM-LR-REMO2009 and the climate variables of average temperature (tas), maximal temperature (tasmax), minimal temperature (tasmin), and average precipitation (pr) according to the intermediate emission scenario RCP4.5 (IPCC AR5). The data miss bias-correction, which is planned and future versions of the platform will host bias-corrected data. The source of the data is the Regional Agency for the Environmental Safeguard of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia (ARPA FVG). Area Science Park has processed the data, realized and maintains the platform. The climate projections atlas illustrates the future climate in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region according to the scenario, models, and climate variables described previously. The interactive buttons positioned on the bottom of the report pages allow to navigate the maps, graphs, and summary tables helpful in interpreting the data. The buttons temperature and precipitation show the average monthly and annual values of average temperature and precipitation whereas the buttons average temperature and average precipitation show the anomalies of average temperature and precipitation. The buttons hot days, cold days, wet days, and dry days show the anomalies of: i) frequency (number of days in a season with temperatures/precipitations above the 95th percentile for a given municipality), ii) intensity (average maximal temperature or mm of precipitation of days above 95th percentile for a given municipality), iii) length (average length of consecutive days with temperatures and/or precipitations above the 95th percentile for a given municipality). The data compares the historical (1990-2020) time frame with the short term (2020-2040), medium term (2040-2070), and long term (2070-2100) time frame. At the top of the pages are positioned the filters that allow to observe the tendencies for each municipality, model, season, or time frame. On the bottom of the pages are positioned the data summary tables and the graphs that statistically compare the tendencies of the historical time frame with those of the short term, medium term, or long term time frame according to the non-parametric statistical Mann-Kendall test. The summary of these analyses is shown at the bottom of each page and in the summary page that also contains a summary table that can be used to perform climate audits (e.g: the Covenant of Mayors climate audit). In this case, it is recommended to set the filters of the model to model average, the season to year, and the time frame to short term. In the summary page, the option model average represents the preponderant tendency of the models, whereas in the remaining pages the model average represents the average of the variable values. The climate projections atlas of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia can be accessed at this link., The climate projections atlas can be reproduced for any region or municipality, model and variable of any spatial and temporal resolution.

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decisionmaking process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models., European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre 690462

10,4 milliards d'habitants en 2100... C'est ce qu'annoncent les projections démographiques des Nations Unies, rendues publiques le 11 juillet 2022. Les Nations Unies révisent à la baisse leurs résultats de 2019. Deux ans plus tôt, un groupe de chercheurs de l'IHME (Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation) avaient annoncé 8,8 milliards en 2100 et en août 2022 des statisticiens d'HSBC font la une des médias avec de nouveaux résultats à 4 milliards... Que penser de ces projections de population en 2100 qui selon les sources varient considérablement ? Comment s’expliquent les différences ?

Clinical effects of deep brain stimulation are largely mediated by the activation of myelinated axons. Hence, increasing attention has been paid in the past on targeting white matter tracts in addition to gray matter. Aims of the present study were: (i) visualization of discrete afferences and efferences of the nucleus accumbens (NAc), supposed to be a major hub of neural networks relating to mental disorders, using probabilistic fiber tractography and a data driven approach, and (ii) validation of the applied methodology for standardized routine clinical applications. MR‐data from 11 healthy subjects and 7 measurement sessions each were acquired on a 3T MRI‐scanner. For probabilistic fiber tracking the NAc as a seed region and the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), amygdala (AMY), hippocampus (HPC), dorsomedial thalamus (dmT) and ventral tegmental area (VTA) as target regions were segmented for each subject and both hemispheres. To quantitatively assess the reliability and stability of the reconstructions, we filtered and clustered the individual fiber‐tracts (NAc to target) for each session and subject and performed a point‐by‐point calculation of the maximum cluster distances for intra‐subject comparison. The connectivity patterns formed by the obtained fibers were in good concordance with published data from tracer and/or fiber‐dissection studies. Furthermore, the reliability assessment of the (NAc to target)‐fiber‐tracts yielded to high correlations between the obtained clustered‐tracts. Using DBS with directional lead technology, the workflow elaborated in this study may guide selective electrical stimulation of NAc projections., The nucleus accumbens (NAc), as a mesolimbic and dopaminergic relay station, and its efferent and afferent fiber‐projections play a central role within neuronal networks whose functions are impaired in various underlying neuro‐psychiatric disorders and could therefore be effective targets for the treatment of these disorders using deep brain stimulation (DBS). Therefore, the aim of the underlying work was a literature‐driven and diffusion‐weighted MRI‐based connectivity analysis, in vivo imaging, and subsequent inter‐ and intraproband comparison with respect to stability and reliability of the major neuronal fiber connections of the NAc. Overall, high anatomical validity, reliability, and stability were demonstrated for all considered and reconstructed NAc fiber connections, so that prospectively, from a clinical point of view, a valid preoperative fiber pathway reconstruction and thus a standardized preoperative intervention planning in the context of DBS would be possible and thus could improve the effectiveness and clinical outcome of this surgical method.

We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near-surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light-windy days and fewer strong-windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric-asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100), respectively., We appreciate several helpful discussions with colleagues in the Regional Climate Group at the University of Gothenburg. This research has been supported by the Swedish Formas (2019–00509 and 2017–01408) and VR (2021–02163 and 2019–03954), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42005023), the International Postdoc grant from the Swedish Research Council (2021–00444), the Leonardo grant 2021 from the BBVA Foundation, the IBER-STILLING project RTI 2018-095749-A-100 (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE), the VENTS project AICO/2021/023 (GVA), and the CSIC Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform PTI-CLIMA.

Flow features of a meandering river can vary seasonally and widely in the boreal zone, as seasonal variation in discharges affect the properties of meander bends and the spatial location of flow magnitudes. However, a better understanding of the impacts of consecutive high-discharge events in the boreal zone requires further analyses. Thus, the impacts of the fluvial processes and their magnitudes on different types of meander bends (e.g., sinuosity, symmetricity) were analysed throughout an open-channel flow period, using accurate flow measurements and hydrodynamic (two-dimensional) modelling. In particular, the research compared the impacts of different discharge events in magnitude and length of river evolution, and whether there is a difference in the erosion forces of the rising and falling phases of discharge hydrographs, and which of the phases has the greatest relevance to erosion forces. A case study was carried out in a middle boreal zone meandering river (Koitajoki in eastern Finland) during the 2020 open water season from May to October. Five different types of meander bends were considered in the study area. Flow magnitudes and shear forces were at their strongest during the spring flood peak, which is normally considered as the highest flow event during the hydrological year. Exceptionally, the largest summer discharge event reached a level that was close to the spring floods' maximum erosional capabilities. Bed shear stress values indicated the falling phases of the flood hydrographs are more important to river evolution than during the ascent stage, as the long duration of the flood downstage contributes more strongly to meander bend erosion and development. The smaller the curvature and larger the sinuosity of the bends, the more variation in erosional forces occurs between discharge stages. The study provides new insights into seasonal fluvial processes in boreal river meander bends as well as reinforces results from earlier river studies.

À l’aide de résultats issus du modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, développé par Statistique Canada, nous estimons l’évolution de la situation matrimoniale et de la proportion d’individus sans enfant survivant des futures personnes âgées selon l’âge et le sexe pour le Canada en 2001 et 2031. Ces projections permettent de montrer comment l’évolution de la structure par âge, des situations matrimoniales et de la proportion de personnes sans enfant va transformer l’environnement familial des personnes âgées tant dans leur structure que dans leurs effectifs. Les résultats montrent que la baisse attendue du veuvage aura pour effet de diminuer la proportion de femmes de 75 ans et plus sans conjoint; par ailleurs, ils montrent que l’arrivée de baby-boomers à l’âge de 75 ans dès 2021 fera grimper plus particulièrement le nombre de personnes de cet âge dont l’environnement familial est caractérisé par l’absence d’enfant survivant., With the help of the results obtained from the LifePaths Microsimulation Model developed by Statistics Canada, we made estimates as to the situation of marriage and the changes in the proportion of individuals with no surviving children amongst future elderly people, based on gender and age, with location in Canada 2001 and 2031. Our projections allow us to see how changes in age, matrimonial situations and the number of individuals with no surviving children will affect the family environment of the elderly both as concerns the structure of their lives and their numbers. The results indicate that the anticipated retarding of male deaths will lessen the number of spouseless women aged 75 and over. The results also anticipate that the number of baby boomers reaching the age of 75, as from the year 2021, will more specifically increase the number of this age in whose family environment there will characteristically be no surviving children.

Addendum: Sept. 2, 2022 In the note below we argue that v/c acts as a projection i.e. as cos(theta), but give no direct evidence for this. In a second note posted Sept. 2, 2022 and called Part II we address this issue and show that a photon bouncing back and forth perpendicular to the direction of motion has both a momentum and a rest mass type of term and v/c is cos(theta). Special relativity is often described in terms of a Lorentz transformation. Historically Lorentz considered Maxwell’s electromagnetic equations viewed from a moving frame. Einstein considered motion in a moving frame using light as a measuring device with the assumption that the speed of light is the same in all frames and cannot be surpassed. In this note we try to think of a single equation describing E and p, but with the ability to describe two different objects, namely a particle with rest mass and a photon. The photon is known to have the dispersion relationship E=pc while one may postulate p=E(v) v for a particle with rest mass i.e. a usual flux equation. At first these seem very different, but if one considers Ev/c with c being the largest velocity attainable (as Einstein assumed) then v/c maps into sin(theta) i.e. it is a projection. If v→c then E→E which is the photon result so there can be no extra component. What is the extra component for v

This report contains a description of models, background data and projections of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2040 using a ‘with measures’ scenario. Official Danish projections of activity rates are used in the models for those sectors for which projections are available, e.g. the latest official projection from the Danish Energy Agency. The emission factors refer to international guidelines and some are country-specific and refer to Danish legislation, Danish research reports or calculations based on emission data from a considerable number of industrial plants. The projection models are based on the same structure and method as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency.

Intermediate dimensions were recently introduced to interpolate between the Hausdorff and box-counting dimensions of fractals. Firstly, we show that these intermediate dimensions may be defined in terms of capacities with respect to certain kernels. Then, relying on this, we show that the intermediate dimensions of the projection of a set $E \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ onto almost all $m$-dimensional subspaces depend only on $m$ and $E$, that is, they are almost surely independent of the choice of subspace. Our approach is based on `intermediate dimension profiles' that are expressed in terms of capacities. We discuss several applications at the end of the paper, including a surprising result that relates the box dimensions of the projections of a set to the Hausdorff dimension of the set., Comment: 17 pages, 0 figures

Recently revised estimates of levels and trends of maternal mortality based on three sources are reviewed and trajectory for reaching the mortality reducing target by 2030 is assessed. According to the estimates provided by the UN Maternal Mortality Inter-agency Group (MMEIG), the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) started from a high of 901 in 1990, dropping to 258 in 2015, or a reduction of 71% over the 25 year period. Between 2000 and 2015, MMEIG estimates showed a reduction of 53%. The MMR is targeted to be reduced to at least to 70 by 2030. This implies a reduction of 73%, which is considerably higher than the reduction recorded during the earlier (2000-2015) period (which was 53%), or annualized rate of decline of 8.7% v 5.0%. Therefore, the future trajectory warrants undertaking strategic interventions more intensively than what may have been hitherto. Concurrently, more attention also needs to be given to strengthening the recording and reporting of maternal deaths.Keywords: levels and trends; maternal mortality; Nepal; projections

The world's most complex climate models are currently running a range of experiments as part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Added to the output from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the total data volume will be in the order of 20PB. Here, we present a dataset of annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean means derived from a selection of experiments of key interest to climate data analysts and reduced complexity climate modellers. The derived dataset is a key part of validating, calibrating and developing reduced complexity climate models against the behaviour of more physically complete models. In addition to its use for reduced complexity climate modellers, we aim to make our data accessible to other research communities. We facilitate this in a number of ways. Firstly, given the focus on annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean mean quantities, our dataset is orders of magnitude smaller than the source data and hence does not require specialized ‘big data’ expertise. Secondly, again because of its smaller size, we are able to offer our dataset in a text‐based format, greatly reducing the computational expertise required to work with CMIP output. Thirdly, we enable data provenance and integrity control by tracking all source metadata and providing tools which check whether a dataset has been retracted, that is identified as erroneous. The resulting dataset is updated as new CMIP6 results become available and we provide a stable access point to allow automated downloads. Along with our accompanying website (cmip6.science.unimelb.edu.au), we believe this dataset provides a unique community resource, as well as allowing non‐specialists to access CMIP data in a new, user‐friendly way.

International audience; This paper describes the extension of the previously CMIP5 based high-resolution climate projections with additional ones based on the more recent climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment. The downscaling method and data processing are the same but the reference dataset is now the ERA5-Land reanalysis (compared to ERA5 previously) allowing to increase the resolution of the new downscaled projections from 0.25° x 0.25° to 0.1°x 0.1°. The extension comprises 5 climate models and includes 2 surface variables at daily resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with mitigation policy (SSP1-2.6), an intermediate one (SSP2-4.5), and one without mitigation (SSP5-8.5).

We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer.We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates.Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes.In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.

Knowing the behavior of extreme hydrological phenomena is essential so that the impacts resulting from these natural events are minimized. Rio Grande do Sul has frequently been hit by extreme events such as droughts and floods, and these events are associated with several consequences, such as energy or water rationing, urban flooding and damage to hydraulic structures. In this context, the analysis of historical series extremes of hydrometeorological data through the Extreme Values Theory ​​(EVT) is one of the ways to determine the variability due to climate change, enabling the modeling of extreme events. EVT makes it possible to know the frequency with which extreme events occur, allowing extrapolation beyond the historical series, generating occurrence probabilities of such an event. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to apply the Extreme Values Theory ​​in hydrological the data historical series of flow and precipitation in the Guaíba hydrographic region and to carry out occurrence probabilities of intense events return, helping in the planning of the hydrographic watersheds that are in this region, as well as to verify whether the EVT has return periods similar to the climate projections of CMIP5 models. The results demonstrate that the values of flow and precipitation, in the historical series used, have already presented changes regarding the volume and frequency of extreme events occurrence and, in the future, for some stations, values ​​can be expected both above and below the extremes already observed in the historical series. Conhecer o comportamento dos fenômenos hidrológicos extremos é essencial para que os impactos decorrentes desses eventos naturais sejam minimizados. O Rio Grande do Sul tem sido frequentemente atingido por eventos extremos como secas e enchentes, e esses eventos estão associados a diversas consequências, como racionamento de energia ou água, alagamentos e danos em estruturas hidráulicas. Nesse contexto, a análise de séries históricas de extremos de dados hidrometeorológicos por meio da Teoria de Valores Extremos (TVE) é uma das formas de determinar a variabilidade decorrente das mudanças climáticas, possibilitando a modelagem de eventos extremos. A TVE possibilita conhecer a frequência com que esses eventos ocorrem, permitindo a extrapolação para além da série histórica para gerar probabilidades de ocorrência de tais eventos e, desse modo, auxiliar no planejamento e gestão de bacias hidrográficas. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e analisar a probabilidade de ocorrência e retorno de eventos extremos com a aplicação da TVE em séries históricas de dados hidrológicos de vazão e precipitação na região hidrográfica do Guaíba. Também se avaliou se a TVE apresenta períodos de retorno semelhantes às projeções climáticas de modelos do CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Os resultados demonstram que os valores de vazão e precipitação, nas séries históricas utilizadas, já apresentaram alterações quanto ao volume e à frequência de ocorrência de eventos extremos e, futuramente, para algumas estações, podem ser esperados valores tanto acima quanto abaixo dos extremos já observados na série histórica.

The sea level is changing around the world due to a combination of complex processes, such as changes in ocean density and circulation, the melt of ice sheets and glaciers, terrestrial water storage and vertical land motion. Projections of how much and how fast sea level will change are crucial information for adaptation planning. At the basis of most sea-level projections are global climate models, which can be used to simulate how different components of the Earth’s system, such as the ocean and the atmosphere, evolve as the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere increases. However, differences between global climate models introduce uncertainties in sea-level projections. Additionally, due to their typically low grid resolution, such models poorly capture sea-level change in coastal regions in which small-scale bathymetric features and oceanic processes are important. Another uncertainty is natural sea-level variability, which can obscure long-term sea-level change in model simulations and observational records. In this thesis, the sea-level projections of two generations of global climate models (CMIP5 & CMIP6) are compared to understand how the increased climate sensitivity in CMIP6 affects sea-level projections. Additionally, regional ocean models are used to refine the simulations of two global climate models on the Northwestern European Shelf (dynamical downscaling) and to better understand the drivers of interannual sea-level variability in this region. Finally, global climate model simulations of future changes in the seasonal sea-level cycle on the Northwestern European Shelf are analyzed and explained using sensitivity tests performed with a regional climate model. Based on this research, this thesis concludes that embedding regional ocean models in sea-level science will help to improve the simulations of global climate models, to better understand the mechanisms behind sea-level change and variability and to provide stakeholders with the local sea-level information they need.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been causing negative impacts on various sectors in Sri Lanka, as a result of the public health interventions that the government had to implement in order to reduce the spread of the disease. Equivalent work carried out in this context is outdated and close to ideal models. This paper presents a mathematical epidemiological model, called SEQIJRDS, having additional compartments for quarantine and infected people divided into two compartments as diagnosed and non diagnosed, compared to the SEIR model. We have presented the rate equations for the model and the basic reproduction number is derived. This model considers the effect of vaccination, the viral load of the variants, mask use, mobility, contact tracing and quarantine, natural immunity development of the infected people, and immunity waning of the recovered group as key developments of the model. The model has been validated for the COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka by parameter derivation using mathematical formulations with the help of the existing data, the literature, and by model fitting for historical data. We present a comparison of the model projections for hospitalized infected people, the cumulative death count, and the daily death count against the ground truth values and projections of the SEIR and SIR models during the model validation. The validation results show that the proposed SEQIJRDS model’s 12-week projection performance is significantly better than both the SEIR and SIR models; the 2-, 6-, 8-, and 10-week projection performance is always better, and the 4-week projection performance is only slightly inferior to other models. Using the proposed SEQIJRDS model, we project mortality under different lockdown procedures, vaccination procedures, quarantine practices, and different mask-use cases. We further project hospital resource usage to understand the best intervention that does not exhaust hospital resources. At the end, based on an understanding of the effect of individual interventions, this work recommends combined public health interventions based on the projections of the proposed model. Specifically, three recommendations—called minimum, sub-optimum, and optimum recommendations—are provided for public health interventions.

El autor intenta hacer algunas proyecciones de las tendencias que hoy aparecen como evidentes en los indígenas de Venezuela, con la conciencia de las limitaciones de tales proyecciones, pues no se cuenta aún con la materia prima básica que permita establecer escenarios globales posibles con rangos de error aceptables. Por esto sólo se proponen hacer aquí predicciones mínimamente confiables, refiriéndose no a la configuración total de las futuras sociedades indígenas sino a algunos de sus elementos más destacados, procurando evitar emitir juicios de valor sobre las proyecciones, por corresponder este rola los propios indígenas. Empieza por la dinámica que ha caracterizado a éstos desde la llegada del español, para ocuparse de los actuales hiwi (Guahibos), Ye' Kwana, Piaroa, etc. Y llegar a la conclusión que la perspectiva desarrollada excluye ya toda posibilidad de desaparición, y que los indígenas lograrán su base territorial, con integración lenta a la sociedad global The author attempts to make some projections from apparently clear tendencies in present day Venezuela indigenous peoples; he is aware of the limitations of these projections, since the basic material wich would allow possible global scenarios with acceptable ranges of error to be established is not available. He thus aims to make only to the general configuration of future indigenous societies but to some of their most outstanding aspects, and avoiding value judgments with regard to te projections (since this role should be played by the indigenous peoples themselves). He begins with the dynamics of their survival since the arrival of the Spanish, and goes on to concern himself with the present-day Hiwi (Guahibos), Ye' Kwana, Piaroa, etc; he concludes that according to this perspective there exist no possibility of the disappearance of the indigenous peoples since they will succeed in ensuring their territorial base and slowly integrate into society in general 16-32 Museo Arqueológico “Gonzalo Rincón Gutiérrez” pupeto47@gmail.com Cuatrimestral www.saber.ula.ve/boletin_antropologico

ispartof: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES vol:41 status: published

Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevalence are useful, not only for enabling a more precise disease risk stratification, but also for guiding the planning of more reliable spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas. Despite the methodological advances that have been made in each area independently, efforts to link transmission models and geostatistical maps have been limited. Motivated by this fact, we developed a Bayesian approach that combines fine-scale geostatistical maps of disease prevalence with transmission models to provide quantitative, spatially explicit projections of the current and future impact of control programs against a disease. These estimates can then be used at a local level to identify the effectiveness of suggested intervention schemes and allow investigation of alternative strategies. The methodology has been applied to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa to provide estimates of the impact of different intervention strategies against the disease., Comment: 48 pages

Solar and wind assets are climate-dependent and changes in climate will result in variations in their generation and intermittency. Developers of solar and wind parks in India have observed changes in climate conditions and variability in solar irradiation and wind profiles at the seasonal and year-to-year timescales. Future climate change perturbations, including monsoon shifts, could lead to lower-than-predicted wind and solar energy production and affect the economics of solar and wind assets. Regional climate models (RCMs) are the basis of climate impact assessments and the most trusted source of information to extract knowledge about future trends in climate variables. However, RCM projections are tainted with variability and uncertainty about the future trends. For India as a case study, we use the RCMs generated by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment West Asia project (CORDEX WAS) to calculate individual wind, radiation, and temperature trends at selected sites; estimate wind and solar PV energy time series; and embed them in portfolio methods to test the impact of combining wind and solar assets on the variability of the total production and the uncertainty about the predicted production. We include a comparison of CORDEX RCMs with the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and conclude that all available RCMs reasonably simulate the main annual and seasonality features of wind speed, surface solar radiation, and temperature in India. The analysis demonstrates that the uncertainty about the portfolio return can be reduced by optimizing the combination of wind and solar assets in a producer portfolio, thus mitigating the economic impact of climate change. We find that the reduction obtained with a mixed portfolio ranges from 33 to 50% compared to a wind only portfolio, and from 30 to 96% compared to a solar only portfolio.

Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures.

High-resolution, daily precipitation climate products that realistically represent extremes are critical for evaluating local-scale climate impacts. A popular bias-correction method, empirical quantile mapping (EQM), can generally correct distributional discrepancies between simulated climate variables and observed data but can be highly sensitive to the choice of calibration period and is prone to overfitting. In this study, we propose a hybrid bias-correction method for precipitation, EQM-LIN, which combines the efficacy of EQM for correcting lower quantiles, with a robust linear correction for upper quantiles. We apply both EQM and EQM-LIN to historical daily precipitation data simulated by a regional climate model over a region in the northeastern USA. We validate our results using a five-fold cross-validation and quantify performance of EQM and EQM-LIN using skill score metrics and several climatological indices. As part of a high-resolution downscaling and bias-correction workflow, EQM-LIN significantly outperforms EQM in reducing mean, and especially extreme, daily distributional biases present in raw model output. EQM-LIN performed as good or better than EQM in terms of bias-correcting standard climatological indices (e.g., total annual rainfall, frequency of wet days, total annual extreme rainfall). In addition, our study shows that EQM-LIN is particularly resistant to overfitting at extreme tails and is much less sensitive to calibration data, both of which can reduce the uncertainty of bias-correction at extremes. National Science Foundation under VT EPSCoR [NSF OIA 1556770] Published version The development of this manuscript was supported by the National Science Foundation under VT EPSCoR Grant No. NSF OIA 1556770.

This paper is focused on Lee-Carter Model and Functional Data Model, both of which were de veloped in the field of Statistics. These models are applied in order to carry out the projection of mortality and life expectancies at birth on three departments of the province of Córdoba (Argen tina) from 2020 to 2040. The strengths and weakness of said models are also analyzed. In order to do that, data from Vital Statistics and National Census in Argentina were used. Moreover, there is reference to the relationship between Demography and Statistics as well.

The rostromedial tegmental nucleus (RMTg), a brake of the dopamine system, is specifically activated by aversive stimuli, such as foot shock. It is principally composed of gamma-aminobutyric acid neurons. However, there is no exact location of the RMTg on the brain stereotaxic atlas. The RMTg can be defined by c-Fos staining elicited by psychostimulants, the position of retrograde-labeled neurons stained by injections into the ventral tegmental area (VTA), the terminal field formed by axons from the lateral habenula, and some molecular markers identified as specifically expressed in the RMTg such as FoxP1. The RMTg receives a broad range of inputs and produces diverse outputs, which indicates that the RMTg has multiple functions. First, the RMTg plays an essential role for non-rapid eye movement sleep. Additionally, the RMTg serves a vital role in response to addiction. Opiates increase the firing rates of dopaminergic neurons in the VTA by acting on μ-opioid receptors on RMTg neurons and their terminals inside the VTA. In this review, we summarize the recent research advances on the anatomical location of the RMTg in rats and mice, its projections, and its regulation of sleep–wake behavior and addiction.

Ya-Nan Zhao,1,* Yu-Dong Yan,1,* Chen-Yao Wang,1 Wei-Min Qu,1 Thomas C Jhou,2 Zhi-Li Huang,1 Su-Rong Yang1 1Department of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neuroscience, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Su-Rong Yang; Zhi-Li HuangDepartment of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaTel/Fax +86-21-54237228; +86-21-54237103Email sryang@shmu.edu.cn; huangzl@fudan.edu.cnAbstract: The rostromedial tegmental nucleus (RMTg), a brake of the dopamine system, is specifically activated by aversive stimuli, such as foot shock. It is principally composed of gamma-aminobutyric acid neurons. However, there is no exact location of the RMTg on the brain stereotaxic atlas. The RMTg can be defined by c-Fos staining elicited by psychostimulants, the position of retrograde-labeled neurons stained by injections into the ventral tegmental area (VTA), the terminal field formed by axons from the lateral habenula, and some molecular markers identified as specifically expressed in the RMTg such as FoxP1. The RMTg receives a broad range of inputs and produces diverse outputs, which indicates that the RMTg has multiple functions. First, the RMTg plays an essential role for non-rapid eye movement sleep. Additionally, the RMTg serves a vital role in response to addiction. Opiates increase the firing rates of dopaminergic neurons in the VTA by acting on μ-opioid receptors on RMTg neurons and their terminals inside the VTA. In this review, we summarize the recent research advances on the anatomical location of the RMTg in rats and mice, its projections, and its regulation of sleep–wake behavior and addiction.Keywords: rostromedial tegmental nucleus, anatomical location, projections, sleep–wake behavior, addiction

Dogs process faces and emotional expressions much like humans, but the time windows important for face processing in dogs are largely unknown. By combining our non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) protocol on dogs with machine-learning algorithms, we show category-specific dog brain responses to pictures of human and dog facial expressions, objects, and phase-scrambled faces. We trained a support vector machine classifier with spatiotemporal EEG data to discriminate between responses to pairs of images. The classification accuracy was highest for humans or dogs vs. scrambled images, with most informative time intervals of 100–140 ms and 240–280 ms. We also detected a response sensitive to threatening dog faces at 30–40 ms; generally, responses differentiating emotional expressions were found at 130–170 ms, and differentiation of faces from objects occurred at 120–130 ms. The cortical sources underlying the highest-amplitude EEG signals were localized to the dog visual cortex.

Background and purpose Scatter correction of cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) projections may enable accurate online dose-delivery estimations in photon and proton-based radiotherapy. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of scatter correction in CBCT-based proton range/dose calculations, in scans acquired in both proton and photon gantries. Material and methods CBCT projections of a Catphan and an Alderson phantom were acquired on both a proton and a photon gantry. The scatter corrected CBCTs (corrCBCTs) and the clinical reconstructions (stdCBCTs) were compared against CTs rigidly registered to the CBCTs (rigidCTs). The CBCTs of the Catphan phantom were segmented by materials for CT number analysis. Water equivalent path length (WEPL) maps were calculated through the Alderson phantom while proton plans optimized on the rigidCT and recalculated on all CBCTs were compared in a gamma analysis. Results In medium and high-density materials, the corrCBCT CT numbers were much closer to those of the rigidCT than the stdCBCTs. E.g. in the 50% bone segmentations the differences were reduced from above 300 HU (with stdCBCT) to around 60–70 HU (with corrCBCT). Differences in WEPL from the rigidCT were typically well below 5 mm for the corrCBCTs, compared to well above 10 mm for the stdCBCTs with the largest deviations in the head and thorax regions. Gamma pass rates (2%/2mm) when comparing CBCT-based dose re-calculations to rigidCT calculations were improved from around 80% (with stdCBCT) to mostly above 90% (with corrCBCT). Conclusion Scatter correction leads to substantial artefact reductions, improving accuracy of CBCT-based proton range/dose calculations.

Highlights • The knowledge of essential insights into Marche, Italy in particular to virus transmission dynamics. • Geographical characteristics, and the imposing of mitigation measures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak. • The outbreak SI distribution Marche region is estimated R0 is 1.852 (0.6–2.3) with 95% CI. • The prediction of cumulative incidences of four-week projection with 95% CI was 12 (7–), 31 (18–), 63 (21–), and 121 (26–) respectively., Background COVID-19 disease is becoming a global pandemic and more than 200 countries were affected because of this disease. Italy is one of the countries is largely suffered with this virus outbreak, and about 180,000 cases (as of 20 April 2020) were registered which explains the large transmissibility and reproduction case numbers. Objective In this study, we considered the Marche region of Italy to compute different daily transmission rates (Rt) including five provinces in it. We also present forecasting of daily and cumulative incidences associated after the next thirty days. The Marche region is the 8th in terms of number of people infected in Italy and the first in terms of diffusion of the infection among the 4 regions of the center of Italy. Methods Epidemic statistics were extracted from the national Italian Health Ministry website. We considered outbreak information where the first case registered in Marche with onset symptoms (26 February 2020) to the present date (20 April 2020). Adoption of incidence and projections with R statistics was done. Results The median values of Rt for the five provinces of Pesaro and Urbano, Ancona, Fermo, Ascoli Piceno, and Macerata, was 2.492 (1.1–4.5), 2.162 (1.0–4.0), 1.512 (0.75–2.75), 1.141 (1.0–1.6), and 1.792 (1.0–3.5) with 95% of CI achieved. The projections at end of 30th day of the cumulative incidences 323 (95% CI), and daily incidences 45 (95% CI) could be possible. Conclusions This study highlights the knowledge of essential insights into the Marche region in particular to virus transmission dynamics, geographical characteristics of positive incidences, and the necessity of implementing mitigation procedures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak.