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In the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation in stratospheric and lower mesospheric water were compared using 30 data sets from 13 different satellite instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database which can be considered in subsequent observational and modelling studies. For the amplitudes, a good agreement of their latitude and altitude distribution was found. Quantitatively there were differences in particular at high latitudes, close to the tropopause and in the lower mesosphere. In these regions, the standard deviation over all data sets typically exceeded 0.2 ppmv for the annual variation and 0.1 ppmv for the semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation. For the phase, larger differences between the data sets were found in the lower mesosphere. Generally the smallest phase uncertainties can be observed in regions where the amplitude of the variability is large. The standard deviations of the phases for all data sets were typically smaller than a month for the annual and semi-annual variation and smaller than 5 months for the quasi-biennial variation. The amplitude and phase differences among the data sets are caused by a combination of factors. In general, differences in the temporal variation of systematic errors and in the observational sampling play a dominant role. In addition, differences in the vertical resolution of the data, the considered time periods and influences of clouds, aerosols as well as non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects cause differences between the individual data sets. © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

The influence of deep convection on water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), the region just below the high ($\sim$18 km), cold tropical tropopause, remains an outstanding question in atmospheric science. Moisture transport to this region is important for climate projections because it drives the formation of local cirrus (ice) clouds, which have a disproportionate impact on the Earth's radiative balance. Deep cumulus towers carrying large volumes of ice are known to reach the TTL, but their importance to the water budget has been debated for several decades. We show here that profiles of the isotopic composition of water vapor can provide a quantitative estimate of the convective contribution to TTL moistening. Isotopic measurements from the ACE satellite instrument, in conjunction with ice loads inferred from CALIOP satellite measurements and simple mass-balance modeling, suggest that convection is the dominant source of water vapor in the TTL up to near-tropopause altitudes. The relatively large ice loads inferred from CALIOP satellite measurements can be produced only with significant water sources, and isotopic profiles imply that these sources are predominantly convective ice. Sublimating ice from deep convection appears to increase TTL cirrus by a factor of several over that expected if cirrus production were driven only by large-scale uplift; sensitivity analysis implies that these conclusions are robust for most physically reasonable assumptions. Changes in tropical deep convection in future warmer conditions may thus provide an important climate feedback., Comment: Submitted to PNAS

Differences between stratospheric water vapor measurements by NOAA frost point hygrometers (FPHs) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are evaluated for the period August 2004 through December 2012 at Boulder, Colorado, Hilo, Hawaii, and Lauder, New Zealand. Two groups of MLS profiles coincident with the FPH soundings at each site are identified using unique sets of spatiotemporal criteria. Before evaluating the differences between coincident FPH and MLS profiles, each FPH profile is convolved with the MLS averaging kernels for eight pressure levels from 100 to 26 hPa (~16 to 25 km) to reduce its vertical resolution to that of the MLS water vapor retrievals. The mean FPH - MLS differences at every pressure level (100 to 26 hPa) are well within the combined measurement uncertainties of the two instruments. However, the mean differences at 100 and 83 hPa are statistically significant and negative, ranging from -0.46 ± 0.22 ppmv (-10.3 ± 4.8%) to -0.10 ± 0.05 ppmv (-2.2 ± 1.2%). Mean differences at the six pressure levels from 68 to 26 hPa are on average 0.8% (0.04 ppmv), and only a few are statistically significant. The FPH - MLS differences at each site are examined for temporal trends using weighted linear regression analyses. The vast majority of trends determined here are not statistically significant, and most are smaller than the minimum trends detectable in this analysis. Except at 100 and 83 hPa, the average agreement between MLS retrievals and FPH measurements of stratospheric water vapor is better than 1%.

Time series of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour using 33 data sets from 15 different satellite instruments were compared in the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II). This comparison aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database that can be considered in the future in observational and modelling studies, e.g addressing stratospheric water vapour trends. The time series comparisons are presented for the three latitude bands, the Antarctic (80°–70°S), the tropics (15°S–15°N) and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (50°–60°N) at four different altitudes (0.1, 3, 10 and 80hPa) covering the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The combined temporal coverage of observations from the 15 satellite instruments allowed the consideration of the time period 1986–2014. In addition to the qualitative comparison of the time series, the agreement of the data sets is assessed quantitatively in the form of the spread (i.e. the difference between the maximum and minimum volume mixing ratios among the data sets), the (Pearson) correlation coefficient and the drift (i.e. linear changes of the difference between time series over time). Generally, good agreement between the time series was found in the middle stratosphere while larger differences were found in the lower mesosphere and near the tropopause. Concerning the latitude bands, the largest differences were found in the Antarctic while the best agreement was found for the tropics. From our assessment we find that most data sets can be considered in future observational and modelling studies, e.g. addressing stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour variability and trends, if data set specific characteristics (e.g. drift) and restrictions (e.g. temporal and spatial coverage) are taken into account.

In the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation in stratospheric and lower mesospheric water were compared using 30 data sets from 13 different satellite instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database which can be considered in subsequent observational and modelling studies. For the amplitudes, a good agreement of their latitude and altitude distribution was found. Quantitatively there were differences in particular at high latitudes, close to the tropopause and in the lower mesosphere. In these regions, the standard deviation over all data sets typically exceeded 0.2 ppmv for the annual variation and 0.1 ppmv for the semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation. For the phase, larger differences between the data sets were found in the lower mesosphere. Generally the smallest phase uncertainties can be observed in regions where the amplitude of the variability is large. The standard deviations of the phases for all data sets were typically smaller than a month for the annual and semi-annual variation and smaller than 5 months for the quasi-biennial variation. The amplitude and phase differences among the data sets are caused by a combination of factors. In general, differences in the temporal variation of systematic errors and in the observational sampling play a dominant role. In addition, differences in the vertical resolution of the data, the considered time periods and influences of clouds, aerosols as well as non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects cause differences between the individual data sets.

Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), profile-to-profile comparisons of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour were performed by considering 33 data sets derived from satellite observations of 15 different instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a picture of the typical biases and drifts in the observational database and to identify data-set-specific problems. The observational database typically exhibits the largest biases below 70 hPa, both in absolute and relative terms. The smallest biases are often found between 50 and 5 hPa. Typically, they range from 0.25 to 0.5 ppmv (5 % to 10 %) in this altitude region, based on the 50 % percentile over the different comparison results. Higher up, the biases increase with altitude overall but this general behaviour is accompanied by considerable variations. Characteristic values vary between 0.3 and 1 ppmv (4 % to 20 %). Obvious data-set-specific bias issues are found for a number of data sets. In our work we performed a drift analysis for data sets overlapping for a period of at least 36 months. This assessment shows a wide range of drifts among the different data sets that are statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In general, the smallest drifts are found in the altitude range between about 30 and 10 hPa. Histograms considering results from all altitudes indicate the largest occurrence for drifts between 0.05 and 0.3 ppmv decade$^{−1}$. Comparisons of our drift estimates to those derived from comparisons of zonal mean time series only exhibit statistically significant differences in slightly more than 3 % of the comparisons. Hence, drift estimates from profile-to-profile and zonal mean time series comparisons are largely interchangeable. As for the biases, a number of data sets exhibit prominent drift issues. In our analyses we found that the large number of MIPAS data sets included in the assessment affects our general results as well as the bias summaries we provide for the individual data sets. This is because these data sets exhibit a relative similarity with respect to the remaining data sets, despite the fact that they are based on different measurement modes and different processors implementing different retrieval choices. Because of that, we have by default considered an aggregation of the comparison results obtained from MIPAS data sets. Results without this aggregation are provided on multiple occasions to characterise the effects due to the numerous MIPAS data sets. Among other effects, they cause a reduction of the typical biases in the observational database.

As part of the second SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapor assessment (WAVAS-II), we present measurements taken from or coincident with seven sites from which ground-based microwave instruments measure water vapor in the middle atmosphere. Six of the ground-based instruments are part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and provide datasets that can be used for drift and trend assessment. We compare measurements from these ground-based instruments with satellite datasets that have provided retrievals of water vapor in the lower mesosphere over extended periods since 1996. We first compare biases between the satellite and ground-based instruments from the upper stratosphere to the upper mesosphere. We then show a number of time series comparisons at 0.46 hPa, a level that is sensitive to changes in H₂O and CH₄ entering the stratosphere but, because almost all CH₄ has been oxidized, is relatively insensitive to dynamical variations. Interannual variations and drifts are investigated with respect to both the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; from 2004 onwards) and each instrument's climatological mean. We find that the variation in the interannual difference in the mean H₂O measured by any two instruments is typically ~ 1%. Most of the datasets start in or after 2004 and show annual increases in H₂O of 0–1 % yr⁻¹. In particular, MLS shows a trend of between 0.5 % yr⁻¹ and 0.7 % yr⁻¹ at the comparison sites. However, the two longest measurement datasets used here, with measurements back to 1996, show much smaller trends of +0.1 % yr−1 (at Mauna Loa, Hawaii) and −0.1 % yr⁻¹ (at Lauder, New Zealand).