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We present RDSim, a fast and comprehensive framework for the simulation of the radio emission and detection of downgoing air showers. It can handle any downgoing shower that can be simulated with ZHAireS including those induced by CC and NC neutrino interactions and $\tau$ decays. RDSim is based on a superposition toymodel that disentangles the Askaryan and geomagnetic components of the shower emission. By using full ZHAireS simulations as input, it is able to estimate the full radio footprint on the ground. A single input simulation at a given energy and arrival direction can be scaled in energy and rotated in azimuth by taking into account all relevant effects. This makes it possible to simulate a huge number of geometries and energies using just a few ZHAireS input simulations. The framework takes into account the main characteristics of the detector, such as trigger setups, thresholds and antenna patterns. To accommodate arrays that use particle detectors for triggering, such as the Auger RD extension, it also features a second toymodel to estimate the muon density at ground level, which is used to perform simple particle trigger simulations. It's speed makes it possible to investigate in detail events with a very low trigger probability, as well as many geometrical effects due to the array layout. In case more detailed studies of the radio detection are needed, RDSim can also be used to sweep the phase-space for the efficient creation of dedicated full simulation sets. This is particularly important in the case of neutrino events, that have extra variables that greatly impact shower characteristics, such as interaction or $\tau$ decay depth as well as the type of interaction and it's fluctuations., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2307.07351

RDSim is a fast, accurate and flexible framework for the simulation of the radio emission of downgoing air showers and its detection by an arbitrary array, including showers initiated by neutrino interactions or tau-lepton decays. RDSim was build around speed and is based on simple and fast, yet still accurate, toymodel-like approaches. It models the radio emission using a superposition emission model that disentangles the Askaryan and geomagnetic components of the shower radio emission. It uses full ZHAireS simulations as an input to estimate the electric field at any position on the ground. A single input simulation can be scaled in energy and rotated in azimuth, taking into account all relevant effects. This makes it possible to simulate a huge number of geometries and energies using just a few ZHAireS input simulations. RDSim takes into account the main characteristics of the detector, such as trigger setups, thresholds and antenna patterns. To accommodate arrays that use particle detectors for triggering, such as the Auger RD extension, it also features a second toymodel to estimate the muon density at ground level and perform simple particle trigger simulations. Owing to the large statistics made possible by its speed, it can be used to investigate in detail events with a very low trigger probability and geometrical effects due to the array layout, making it specially suited to be used as a fast and accurate aperture calculator. In case more detailed studies of the radio emission and detector response are desired, RDSim can also be used to sweep the phase-space for the efficient creation of dedicated full simulation sets. This is particularly important in the case of neutrino events, that have extra variables that greatly impact shower characteristics, such as interaction or $\tau$ decay depth as well as the type of interaction and it's fluctuations.

Purpose:The limited knowledge on the molecular profile of patients with BRAF-mutant non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who progress under BRAF-targeted therapies (BRAF-TT) has hampered the development of subsequent therapeutic strategies for these patients. Here, we evaluated the clinical utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-targeted sequencing to identify canonical BRAF mutations and genomic alterations potentially related to resistance to BRAF-TT, in a large cohort of patients with BRAF-mutant NSCLC.Experimental Design:This was a prospective study of 78 patients with advanced BRAF-mutant NSCLC, enrolled in 27 centers across France. Blood samples (n = 208) were collected from BRAF-TT–naïve patients (n = 47), patients nonprogressive under treatment (n = 115), or patients at disease progression (PD) to BRAF-TT (24/46 on BRAF monotherapy and 22/46 on BRAF/MEK combination therapy). ctDNA sequencing was performed using InVisionFirst-Lung. In silico structural modeling was used to predict the potential functional effect of the alterations found in ctDNA.Results:BRAFV600E ctDNA was detected in 74% of BRAF-TT–naïve patients, where alterations in genes related with the MAPK and PI3K pathways, signal transducers, and protein kinases were identified in 29% of the samples. ctDNA positivity at the first radiographic evaluation under treatment, as well as BRAF-mutant ctDNA positivity at PD were associated with poor survival. Potential drivers of resistance to either BRAF-TT monotherapy or BRAF/MEK combination were identified in 46% of patients and these included activating mutations in effectors of the MAPK and PI3K pathways, as well as alterations in U2AF1, IDH1, and CTNNB1.Conclusions:ctDNA sequencing is clinically relevant for the detection of BRAF-activating mutations and the identification of alterations potentially related to resistance to BRAF-TT in BRAF-mutant NSCLC.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a remarkably accelerated development of vaccines worldwide. However, an effective distribution system is crucial for vaccination at a national level. Ecuador was one of the first Latin American countries to be most severely affected by the pandemic. It has been struggling to expand its vaccination drive and requires a strategy that provides an achievable vaccination rate and maintains its primary care services. This study aims to provide an efficient vaccination model to achieve herd immunity by utilizing the country's existing infrastructure (the centralized electoral system) for mass vaccination.The national electoral data from 2017 and 2021 were used to create estimates for the proposed vaccination model. Two model variations, total personnel, needed, and the number of days needed to vaccinate 50%, 75%, and 100% of the population were considered. The numbers of vaccines needed, and vaccination sites were estimated based on the current number of registered voters and polling stations. The results from the proposed model show that 17,892,353 people can be vaccinated, at 40,093 polling stations, by 90,209 personnel if one vaccinator was available per polling station.Based on this model, even a conservative estimate shows that 12.56 days are needed to achieve herd immunity, and 16.74 days are needed to vaccinate the entire population of Ecuador. Additionally, we propose that this vaccination model can be used as a blueprint for any country to address similar catastrophes in the future.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40475-022-00251-y.

This research explores the capacity of Information Fusion and Data Mining to extract knowledge about associations among agricultural products and achieve better predictions for future consumption in local markets in the Andean region of Ecuador. This commercial activity is performed using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups. The time-series forecasting, presented as a machine learning formulation, is enhanced with multi-variate predictions based on association rules extracted from transactions data analysis. These transactional data are used to learn the best association rules between products sold in different local markets, knowledge that allows the system to gain a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy by including these variables in multi-variate forecasting models. In the results we see that, from establishing best association rules valid in the original dataset, we can achieve a considerable improvement in prediction accuracy, validated with independent test subsequences of agricultural products using non-linear regression techniques including neural networks with a varying number of hidden layers.

A Summary This report is based on findings from a survey of the SME employees and managers based in the Leeds City Region. A survey was conducted asking questions specifically on succession planning, which is a largely unexplored area of research in the SME literature. The questions were focused on asking survey participants to identify character traits that one needs to have to become a successor in any SME. The findings showed that participants did not perceive either gender, race or class as relevant for succession planning and outlined instead personal characteristics. The existing research has shown the weaknesses of homogenous hiring but in the study, 41.3% of respondents believe cultural fit is the most important factor in succession, this is a considerable weakness for gender equality and diversity as firms continue to preserve their culture. Equally, existing research emphasises the importance of ‘soft skills’ for a successful succession whilst this study highlighted a lack of knowledge in this as a desirable trait, as empathy received the lowest level of importance when considered a trait for successors to have. The abductive analysis showed that women tend to assess gender as more influential in succession than men, however, views are divided on the extent of influence of this characteristic. The majority of women did rate gender highly on the scale of influence (17 women total), most with either 4 or 5. Equally, women were inclined to recognise class as influential albeit to a meaningfully lower extent than gender and those who recognised class seem to often be from working class origin. Race seems to be least recognised except for, not surprisingly, BAME women who rated race either higher or equally influential as gender, but BAME women did not rate class as influential, this characteristic was more recognised by men than women generally and then more by white women than BAME women. Only one man in the sample recognised gender as a relevant characteristic for succession, thus pointing towards a conclusion that men do not recognise women’s inequality in large numbers.

The Giant Radio Array for Neutrino Detection (GRAND) is a planned large-scale observatory of ultra-high-energy (UHE) cosmic particles, with energies exceeding 10^8 GeV. Its goal is to solve the long-standing mystery of the origin of UHE cosmic rays. To do this, GRAND will detect an unprecedented number of UHE cosmic rays and search for the undiscovered UHE neutrinos and gamma rays associated to them with unmatched sensitivity. GRAND will use large arrays of antennas to detect the radio emission coming from extensive air showers initiated by UHE particles in the atmosphere. Its design is modular: 20 separate, independent sub-arrays, each of 10 000 radio antennas deployed over 10 000 km^2. A staged construction plan will validate key detection techniques while achieving important science goals early. Here we present the science goals, detection strategy, preliminary design, performance goals, and construction plans for GRAND., 45 pages, 34 figures. Matches published version

Objective:To assess the impact of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) in adult medical–surgical intensive care units (MS-ICUs) in Latin America.Design:Quasi-experimental prospective with continuous time series.Setting:The study included 77 MS-ICUs in 9 Latin American countries.Patients:Adult patients admitted to an MS-ICU for at least 24 hours were included in the study.Methods:This multicenter study was conducted over 12 months. To evaluate the ASPs, representatives from all MS-ICUs performed a self-assessment survey (0–100 scale) at the beginning and end of the study. The impact of each ASP was evaluated monthly using the following measures: antimicrobial consumption, appropriateness of antimicrobial treatments, crude mortality, and multidrug-resistant microorganisms in healthcare-associated infections (MDRO-HAIs). Using final stewardship program quality self-assessment scores, MS-ICUs were stratified and compared among 3 groups: ≤25th percentile, >25th to Results:In total, 77 MS-ICU from 9 Latin American countries completed the study. Twenty MS-ICUs reached at least the 75th percentile at the end of the study in comparison with the same number who remain within the 25th percentile (score, 76.1 ± 7.5 vs 28.0 ± 7.3; P < .0001). Several indicators performed better in the MS-ICUs in the 75th versus 25th percentiles: antimicrobial consumption (143.4 vs 159.4 DDD per 100 patient days; P < .0001), adherence to clinical guidelines (92.5% vs 59.3%; P < .0001), validation of prescription by pharmacist (72.0% vs 58.0%; P < .0001), crude mortality (15.9% vs 17.7%; P < .0001), and MDRO-HAIs (9.45 vs 10.96 cases per 1,000 patient days; P = .004).Conclusion:MS-ICUs with more comprehensive ASPs showed significant improvement in antimicrobial utilization.

We developed a radio interferometric technique for the observation of extensive air showers initiated by cosmic particles. In this proof-of-principle study we show that properties of extensive air showers can be derived with high accuracy in a straightforward manner. When time synchronisation below $\sim$1 ns between different receivers can be achieved, direction reconstruction resolution of $< 0.2^\circ$ and resolution on the depth of shower maximum of $, 8 pages, 4 figures. Added figures/references with respect to v1

Tau neutrinos are expected to comprise roughly one third of both the astrophysical and cosmogenic neutrino flux, but currently the flavor ratio is poorly constrained and the expected flux at energies above $10^{17}$ eV is low. We present a detector concept aimed at measuring the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos in this energy range via a high-elevation mountaintop detector using the radio technique. The detector searches for radio signals from upgoing air showers generated by Earth-skimming tau neutrinos. Signals from several antennas in a compact array are coherently summed at the trigger level, permitting not only directional masking of anthropogenic backgrounds, but also a low trigger threshold. This design takes advantage of both the large viewing area available at high-elevation sites and the nearly full duty cycle available to radio instruments. We present trade studies that consider the station elevation, frequency band, number of antennas in the array, and the trigger threshold to develop a highly efficient station design. Such a mountaintop detector can achieve a factor of ten improvement in acceptance over existing instruments with 100 independent stations. With 1000 stations and three years of observation, it can achieve a sensitivity to an integrated $\mathcal{E}^{-2}$ flux of $, Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures

Este trabalho apresenta um caso de uso de construcao de uma interface de visualizacao de dados para repositorios de acesso aberto. O caso de analise e a Biblioteca Digital Brasileira de Teses e Dissertacoes (BDTD). O software R e uma ferramenta etatistica muito utilizada entre desenvolvedores e programadores. Um de seus ​pacotes e chamado ​Shiny​, o qual faz que seja facil construir aplicativos web direto sobre R. Por meio do aplicativo, o usuario pode visualizar dados de forma rapida e customizada. Isso pode ajuda-los no rastreamento de metadados e no uso de estatisiticas sobre repositorios institucionais e pode ser utilizado tambem na descoberta de informacao cientifica, tal como referencias bibliograficas e listas de especialistas em determinada area de pesquisa. Estas ferramentas de visualizacao podem estimular outros a criarem repositorios abertos e se juntarem a redes nacionais, regionais e internacionais de repositorios.

The limited knowledge on the molecular profile of patients withThis was a prospective study of 78 patients with advancedctDNA sequencing is clinically relevant for the detection of

High-energy astrophysical neutrinos, recently discovered by IceCube up to energies of several PeV, opened a new window to the high-energy Universe. Yet much remains to be known. IceCube has excellent muon flavor identification, but tau flavor identification is challenging. This limits its ability to probe neutrino physics and astrophysics. To address this limitation, we present a concept for a large-scale observatory of astrophysical tau neutrinos in the 1-100 PeV range, where a flux is guaranteed to exist. Its detection would allow us to characterize the neutrino sources observed by IceCube, to discover new ones, and test neutrino physics at high energies. The deep-valley air-shower array concept that we present provides highly background-suppressed neutrino detection with pointing resolution, 15 pages, 6 figures, white paper submitted to the Latin American Strategy Forum for Research Infrastructure (LASF4RI)

Tau neutrinos are expected to comprise roughly one third of both the astrophysical and cosmogenic neutrino flux, but currently the flavor ratio is poorly constrained and the expected flux at energies above $10^{17}$ eV is low. We present a detector concept aimed at measuring the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos in this energy range via a high-elevation mountaintop detector using the radio technique. The detector searches for radio signals from upgoing air showers generated by Earth-skimming tau neutrinos. Signals from several antennas in a compact array are coherently summed at the trigger level, permitting not only directional masking of anthropogenic backgrounds, but also a low trigger threshold. This design takes advantage of both the large viewing area available at high-elevation sites and the nearly full duty cycle available to radio instruments. We present trade studies that consider the station elevation, frequency band, number of antennas in the array, and the trigger threshold to develop a highly efficient station design. Such a mountaintop detector can achieve a factor of ten improvement in acceptance over existing instruments with 100 independent stations. With 1000 stations and three years of observation, it can achieve a sensitivity to an integrated $\mathcal{E}^{-2}$ flux of $, 26 pages, 11 figures

Southern African tropical lows are synoptic-scale cyclonic vortices that propagate westward across southern Africa in the Austral summer. They strongly influence local rainfall and aggregate in the climatological DJF mean to form the Angola Low. In this study, tropical lows are identified and tracked using an objective feature tracking method. The statistics of tropical low tracks over southern Africa are presented and compared across three reanalysis products. Findings are compared to the literature of tropical low pressure areas elsewhere in the world, where it is found that most tracking statistics compare well, but that the tendency of tropical lows to become semi-stationary over Angola is unique to Southern southern Africa. The hypothesis that tropical lows in Angola have a causal relationship with Tropical Temperate Troughs is tested, and a correlation between occurrence frequencies is found at inter-annual but not daily time-scales. Precipitation is attributed to the tropical lows and it is found that tropical lows are associated with 31% of rainfall across tropical southern Africa, based on gridded precipitation products. The inter-annual variability of the number of tropical lows that form\ud 34 per year (σ = 6 events/annum) is linked to ENSO and the tropical easterly jet. The mean latitude of tropical lows is shifted northwards during El Nino and southwards during La Nina. Much of the inter-annual precipitation variability maximum in Angola is attributed to rainfall associated with tropical lows. These results provide insights into the southern African response to ENSO and into the mechanisms of rainfall in the southern African tropical edge.

Children in the Bolivian Andes are exposed to endemic infections and meager nourishment, and live under poor hygienic conditions. The prevention of children malnutrition is a priority in many countries including Bolivia. In this study, the health status of schoolchildren in Taraco, a Puna district, at 4,000 meters above sea level (masl) and in Caranavi, at 650 masl in the wealthier subtropical valleys, was compared. The weight, height, and hematological and biochemical parameters in blood, parasites in stool, and clinical information in 120 children from rural Taraco and in 96 from semi-urban Caranavi, both predominantly of Aymara ethnicity, were registered. Eleven percent of Taraco children were undernourished compared with 3% in Caranavi. Instead, 41% of the children in Caranavi were obese or overweight, compared with 8% in Taraco. Anemia was found in 74% of the children in Taraco compared with 7% in Caranavi. Albumin levels were normal in all samples, albeit lower in Taraco. Similar and normal serum zinc levels were measured in both groups. Approximately 60% of the children in both locations showed insufficient vitamin D levels, with lower levels in Taraco children. Hymenolepis nana and Entamoeba coli, parasites determinant of poor hygienic conditions, were respectively detected in 78% and 21% of fecal samples from Taraco, and in 29% and 8% of samples from Caranavi. We show increased anemia, nutritional deficiencies, and indications of poor hygienic conditions in highlands compared with lowlands. The prevalence of obesity in the lowlands demands addressing diverse nutritional deficiencies in the regions of Bolivia.

Este estudio se realizó en 36 Comunidades y/o Centros de Turismo Comunitario (CTC) del Ecuador, el mismo que da cuenta sobre el impacto de esta actividad en el ámbito social, ambiental y de sostenibilidad de los emprendimientos relacionados con el sector, donde se encuentra un segmento de la población más vulnerable de la sociedad ecuatoriana, como son los habitantes de las áreas rurales. También se analizó la situación real del turismo y su influencia social, económica y ambiental como rama de la actividad dedicada a la prestación de los servicios y atención a los visitantes que buscan conseguir la satisfacción de las necesidades espirituales, de conocimiento, recreación, descanso personal y familiar. El estudio evidencia los aportes positivos del Turismo Comunitario en Ecuador, como son la generación de puestos de trabajo, el posicionamiento en mercados no tradicionales, la utilización racional de los recursos naturales, bases fundamentales del turismo ecológico y la responsabilidad social – comunitaria a partir de la organización comunitaria, la identificación de los recursos disponibles para el turismo; así como se evidencian algunas debilidades en cuanto a la disponibilidad de la infraestructura básica, promoción y la deficiente organización laboral en el sector público.

Context: uropathogenic Escherichia coli (ECUP) is one of the main etiologic agents in uncom-plicated urinary tract infections (UTIs),(70-95%). The end point of antibiotic therapy is a full clinical and microbiological response. Objective: to identify bacterial resistance profiles to firstline antibiotics, used to treat uncomplicated UTI’s within indigenous communities in Ecuador, where the empiric treatment approach is based mainly on the use of trime-thoprim/sulfamethoxazole, ampicillin and ciprofloxacin.Methods: a total of 335 urine samples were collected and analysed during a four-month period (February- May 2016) in Zumbahua, Colta and Guamote. The samples were incubated for 24 and 48 hours in Eosin Methylene Blue (EMB) and subsequently identified at the genus and species level by biochemical tests. The Kirby-Bauer method (disc diffusion) was performed for phenotypic profiling of antibiotic susceptibility, and for the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), Vitek 2 broth micro-dilution was used. The double disk method was used for the identification of extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL).Results: 90/335 (26,9%) urine samples were compatible with ITU (significant count of ≥105 colony forming units cfu/ml). The most frequently microorganism recov-ered was E.coli (n=75; 83,3%). The antibiotic resistance found in E. coli was trime-thoprim/sulfamethoxazole 56,7%; 52,5% to ampicillin; 43.3% to nalidixic acid; 32.5% to ciprofloxacin; 28.3% to norfloxacin; 25% to levofloxacin; 15.85% to cefazolin; 17.5% to cefoxitin, 15%; to cefuroxime; 15% to ceftazidime, cefotaxime, and ceftriaxone; 15% to cefepime; 7,5% to nitrofurantoin and 1,7% to phosphomycin. Seven extended spectrum betalactamases (ESBL) isolates were identified.Conclusion: these results drive to the recommendation of not using ampicillin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, nor quinolones in the area studied. We recommend empirical therapy with phosphomycin or nitrofurantoin Contexto: Escherichia coli uropatógena (ECUP) se presenta como uno de los principales agentes etiológicos en infecciones del tracto urinario (ITUs) no complicadas (70-95%). El objetivo del tratamiento de ITUs no complicadas es obtener curación clínica y microbiológica. Para ello, es de particular importancia el conocimiento de las tasas de resistencia antibiótica local.Objetivo: identificar los perfiles de resistencia a antibióticos de primera línea para ITUs no complicadas en poblaciones nativas amerindias Kichwas ecuatorianas, en donde el tratamiento empírico se basa en trimetoprim/sulfametoxazol, ampicilina, y ciprofloxacina mayoritariamente.Métodos: se analizaron 335 muestras de orina procedentes de las poblaciones de Zumbahua, Colta y Guamote, en un periodo de 4 meses (febrero-mayo 2016). Las muestras fueron incubadas por 24 y 48 horas en agar Eosin Methylene Blue (EMB), para luego ser identificadas en género y especie por pruebasbioquímicas. Para determinar la susceptibilidad antibiótica, se realizó la técnica de difusión en disco de Kirby-Bauer. Para la Concentración Inhibitoria Mínima (CIM), se utilizó la técnica de microdilución en caldo (Vitek 2). El método de doble disco fue la técnica utilizada para la detección de betalactamasas deespectro extendido (BLEE).Resultados: noventa (26,9%) muestras mostraron un recuento significativo de ≥105 (ufc)/ml, compatibles con ITUs. El microorganismo identificado con mayor frecuencia fue E. coli (n=75; 83,3%). La resistencia antibiótica encontrada para los aislados de E. coli fue de 56,7% a trimetoprim/sulfametoxazol, 52,5% aampicilina, 43.3% a ácido nalidíxico, 32.5% a ciprofloxacina, 28.3% a norfloxacina, 25% a levofloxacina, 15.85% a cefazolina, 17.5% a cefoxitina, 15% a cefuroxima, 15% a ceftazidima, cefotaxima, y ceftriaxona, 15% a cefepima, 7,5% a nitrofurantoina y 1,7% a fosfomicina. Se identificaron 7 aislados productores de betalactamasas de espectro extendido (BLEE).Conclusión: con los resultados obtenidos se recomienda no utilizar ampicilina, trimetoprim/sulfametoxazol, ni quinolonas en la zona estudiada como terapia empírica. Se sugiere instaurar tratamiento empírico con fosfomicina o nitrofurantoina para ITUs no complicadas

We present a characterization of the Saharan heat low (SHL) based on dropsonde observations made on 22 June 2011 by two simultaneously flying aircraft during the Fennec project. The observations are used to identify moisture transport pathways and to validate the UK Met Office limited area model for northern Africa (Africa‐LAM). The observations capture the SHL, harmattan, and monsoon surge. The SHL has a northeast‐southwest orientated elongated shape centered over northern Mauritania. The SHL core is associated with a 950 hPa temperature minimum (36.4°C) in the morning caused by the monsoon surge and a maximum (42.6°C) in the afternoon. The monsoon surge east of the SHL core splits into two transport pathways: (a) curving around the SHL core in the north, especially pronounced in a morning near‐surface layer, and (b) northeastward transport within the ~2 km deep monsoon surge (afternoon observations only). In the morning the model forecasts the harmattan, monsoon surge, and the SHL geographic location and northeast‐southwest orientation well but the model represents the SHL flatter and more spatially extended and overestimates the convective boundary layer (CBL) by up to ~0.3 km. The simulated afternoon SHL location appears shifted westward by up to ~1°. The model overestimates the shallow afternoon monsoon surge CBL depth of ~1.8 km by >2 km resulting in southwestward transport of vertically mixed moisture above ~2.5 km contrasting observed northeastward‐only transport at lower levels. This moisture distribution model error is likely to have consequences for simulations of Saharan thermodynamics and dust emissions caused by convection‐driven cold pools.

In This Paper, A Monitoring System Of Agricultural Production Is Modeled As A Data Fusion System (Data From Local Fairs And Meteorological Data). The Proposal Considers The Particular Information Of Sales In Agricultural Markets For Knowledge Extraction About The Associations Among Them. This Association Knowledge Is Employed To Improve Predictions Of Sales Using A Spatial Prediction Technique, As Shown With Data Collected From Local Markets Of The Andean Region Of Ecuador. The Commercial Activity In These Markets Uses Alternative Marketing Circuits (Cialco). This Market Platform Establishes A Direct Relationship Between Producer And Consumer Prices And Promotes Direct Commercial Interaction Among Family Groups. The Problem Is Presented First As A General Fusion Problem With A Network Of Spatially Distributed Heterogeneous Data Sources, And Is Then Applied To The Prediction Of Products Sales Based On Association Rules Mined In Available Sales Data. First, Transactional Data Is Used As The Base To Extract The Best Association Rules Between Products Sold In Different Local Markets, Knowledge That Allows The System To Gain A Significant Improvement In Prediction Accuracy In The Spatial Region Considered. This work was supported in part by Project MINECO TEC2017-88048-C2–2-R, Salesian Polytechnic University of Quito-Ecuador and by Commercial Coordination Network, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Ecuador

The ORCID in Repositories Task Force was charged with drafting recommendations for repository platform developers, intended to ensure a consistent base level of support for ORCID across different platforms. Their draft recommendations were shared for community comment, and that feedback has been incorporated into this document, which represents the group's overall recommendations.

We report an error found during independent review of the NuTauSim publicly available code \url{https://github.com/harmscho/NuTauSim} that forms the basis of this publication. The error in the code was in tracking the density of the medium during particle propagation. After the first interaction, the code was referencing the depth of penetration back to the surface of the Earth rather than the location of the last interaction. The results were obtained using densities that were systematically underestimated when the particle was traversing the inner layers of the Earth by assigning the density of either ice or bedrock, depending on the particle energy or ice thickness of the simulation. This error was fixed and the repository updated on September 29, 2018., Comment: erratum to arXiv:1707.00334

The ORCID in Repositories Task Force was charged with drafting recommendations for repository platform developers, intended to ensure a consistent base level of support for ORCID across different platforms. Their draft recommendations were shared for community comment, and that feedback has been incorporated into this document, which represents the group's overall recommendations.

Global climate models fail to represent the annual cycle of tropical-extratropical cloud bandsand produce too much summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa. This study demonstrates thatrunning a regional convective-permitting climate simulation alleviates these biases, counteracting biasesthat are present in the parent model. The improvement emerges from stronger vertical mass flux in thetropics, which forces a stronger local Hadley overturning into the summer hemisphere. This enhancedoverturning increases upper-level subsidence in the subtropics and amplifies the forcing of the localsubtropical jet. Together, these improvements halve the wet subtropical rainfall bias and are associatedwith a 50% increase to an 80% match bet ween the simulated and observed annual cycle of crucialtropical-extratropical cloud band rainfall systems. The results advocate for the increased use ofconvective-permitting climate models with domains that include regional tropical convection hot spots, inorder to fully benefit from the explicit representation of deep convection.

This research explores the ability to extract knowledge about the associations among agricultural products which allows to improve the prediction of future consumption in the local markets of the Andean region of Ecuador. This commercial activity is carried out using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups. The fusion of information from spatially located heterogeneous data sources allows to establish the best association rules between data sources (several products in several local markets) to infer a significant improvement in spatial prediction accuracy for sales future agricultural products.

The Southern Hemisphere subtropical convergence zones are important regions of rainfall in the subtropics. The South Indian convergence zone (SICZ) has the strongest seasonality and exhibits substantial interannual variability in strength and position during austral summer. On synoptic time scales, the SICZ is a preferred region for the formation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands with local maxima over the southern African mainland and Madagascar. This study investigates how the seasonality in satellite-observed cloud band frequency emerges from the interplay between the asynchronous seasonal cycles in convective instability and upper-level flow, as represented by reanalysis data. These atmospheric mean-states are diagnosed with a gross convective instability metric and a method to distinguish between subtropical and eddy-driven jet axes. Month-by-month analysis of these diagnostics elucidates how mean-state perturbations during ENSO events modifies cloud band likelihood. Typically, 150-200% more cloud bands develop during La Niña seasons supported by 5-10° latitudinal separation between the local subtropical and eddy-driven jets and higher values of convective instability, especially in semi-arid parts of mainland southern Africa. During El Niño events, fewer cloud bands develop over southern Africa in a more convectively stable environment without a distinct subtropical jet. However, east of Madagascar cloud bands are 150% more likely. Plausible teleconnection pathways based on these ENSO-related perturbations are discussed. The paper concludes with a conceptual framing of the seasonal cycle in the mean-state pertinent to TE cloud band likelihood.

This research explores information fusion and data mining techniques and proposes a methodology to improve predictions based on strong associations among agricultural products, which allows prediction for future consumption in local markets in the Andean region of Ecuador using spatial prediction techniques. This commercial activity is performed using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups.

This work proposes a methodology that reduces the error of future estimations in commercialization based on multivariate spatial prediction techniques (cokriging) considering the products with strong associations. It is based on the Apriori algorithm to find association rules in sales of agricultural products of local markets. Results show the improvement in spatial prediction accuracy after using the best association rules.

This research explores the capacity of Information Fusion to extract knowledge about associations among agricultural products, which allows prediction for future consumption in local markets in the Andean region of Ecuador. This commercial activity is performed using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups. In the results we see that, information fusion from heterogenous data sources that are spatially located allows to establish best association rules among data sources (several products on several local markets) to infer significant improvement in time forecasting and spatial prediction accuracy for the future sales of agricultural products.

This article aims at evaluating linkages between selected local traditional knowledge (LTK) indicators with meteorological drought forecasting parameters in the Mzingwane catchment area of Zimbabwe. In addition, the article investigates possible ways of integrating selected LTK indicators with the meteorological drought forecasting parameters to improve applicability of meteorological drought forecasts at local level. LTK forecast data from trees and plants for 2012/2013 season was collected through structured questionnaires administered on 40 household heads. Monthly rainfall data spanning the period September 1999–May 2013 (14 years) were used for the calculation of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for the study catchment. The trends in drought severity scale were then compared to the results from local traditional knowledge drought forecasting (LTKDF) to find out the degree to which they could be correlated. The GEONETCast ten day composite, SPOT VEGETATION, normalized difference vegetation index (S10 NDVI) dataset with a 1 km resolution was used to evaluate vegetation condition and hence track drought occurrence and severity. The trends in drought severity scale from NDVI were then compared to the results from LTKDF to establish the level of correlation. The analyses carried out shows a good correlation between traditional plant and tree indicators with resulting conditions captured as NDVI and SPI. The challenge on the LKDF systems, however, was lack of historical data to ensure adequate analysis and comparison with meteorological data. The study therefore recommends continuous monitoring and standardisation of LTK data.

Contexto: el síndrome metabólico (SM) es un grupo de problemas de salud que se relaciona con mayor riesgo o probabilidad de complicaciones cardiovasculares, diabetes y mortalidad. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico en médicos que laboran en el Hospital San Francisco de la ciudad de Quito y describir el consumo de grasas saturadas, de frutas y verduras y el nivel de actividad física. Métodos: estudio observacional, diseño epidemiológico transversal en 90 médicos que laboran en el hospital San Francisco de la ciudad de Quito en quienes se determinó: Síndrome metabólico, con Criterios IDF y ATP III, además se realizó una encuesta de ejercicio y consumo alimentario. Resultados: se estudiaron 90 sujetos, 84% entre 30 y 50 años de edad; 60% mujeres. La prevalencia de síndrome metabólico fue del 16,67 con mayor frecuencia en hombres que en mujeres (p < 0,05), en una razón de 3:1, no hubo diferencias significativas con respecto a la edad y la glucosa, pero si con niveles de colesterol, triglicéridos, presión arterial y circunferencia abdominal. El 52,5% son mínimamente activos y el 98,9% no consume frutas ni fibra, el 41,1% consume sal y el 1,1% consume grasas saturadas. Conclusiones: la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico en profesionales médicos de un hospital de la red pública de salud del Ecuador es alto y es más frecuente en hombres. El sedentarismo y los malos hábitos alimentarios parecen estar relacionados con esta alta prevalencia lo que implica que programas de educación para disminuir los factores de riesgo son necesarios.

Coupled models are the tools by which we diagnose and project future climate, yet in certain regions they are critically underevaluated. The Congo Basin is one such region which has received limited scientific attention, due to the severe scarcity of observational data. There is a large difference in the climatology of rainfall in global coupled climate models over the basin. This study attempts to address this research gap by evaluating modeled rainfall magnitude and distribution amongst global coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Mean monthly rainfall between models varies by up to a factor of 5 in some months, and models disagree on the location of maximum rainfall. The ensemble mean, which is usually considered a “best estimate” of coupled model output, does not agree with any single model, and as such is unlikely to present a possible rainfall state. Moisture flux (qflux) convergence (which is assumed to be better constrained than parameterized rainfall) is found to have a strong relationship with rainfall; strongest correlations occur at 700 hPa in March–May (r = 0.70) and 850 hPa in June–August, September–November, and December–February (r = 0.66, r = 0.71, and r = 0.81). In the absence of observations, this relationship could be used to constrain the wide spectrum of modeled rainfall and give a better understanding of Congo rainfall climatology. Analysis of moisture transport pathways indicates that modeled rainfall is sensitive to the amount of moisture entering the basin. A targeted observation campaign at key Congo Basin boundaries could therefore help to constrain model rainfall.

There has been a recent surge in interest in the detection of $\tau$ lepton-induced air showers from detectors at altitude. When a $\tau$ neutrino ($\nu_\tau$) enters the Earth it produces $\tau$ leptons as a result of nuclear charged current interactions. In some cases, this process results in a $\tau$ lepton exiting the surface of the Earth, which can subsequently decay in the atmosphere and produce an extensive air shower. These upward-going air showers can be detected via fluorescence, optical Cherenkov, or geomagnetic radio emission. Several experiments have been proposed to detect these signals. We present a comprehensive simulation of the production of $\tau$ leptons by $\nu_\tau$'s propagating through Earth to aid the design of future experiments. These simulations for $\nu_\tau$'s and leptons in the energy range from $10^{15}$ eV to $10^{21}$ eV treat the full range of incidence angles from Earth-skimming to diametrically-traversing. Propagation of $\nu_\tau$'s and leptons include the effects of rock and an ocean or ice layer of various thicknesses. The interaction models include $\nu_\tau$ regeneration and account for uncertainties in the Standard Model neutrino cross-section and in the photo-nuclear contribution to the $\tau$ energy loss rate., Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures

Purpose – This research paper is informed by a study to assess performance of local knowledge drought forecasts (LKDFs) in the Mzingwane catchment which is located in the Limpopo River Basin in Zimbabwe. The purpose of this paper is to validate local traditional knowledge (LTK) indicators being applied in Mzingwane catchment and verify their accuracy and reliability in drought forecasting and early warning. Design/methodology/approach – LTK forecast data for 2012/2013 season were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 40 selected household heads and focus group discussions. Observations and key informant interviews with chiefs and the elderly (>55 years) were also used to collect additional LTK forecast data. Meteorological data on seasonal rainfall were collected from the meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe (MSD). Two sets of comparisons were conducted namely the hind-cast comparison where the LKDF system results were evaluated against what the season turned out to be and forecast comparison where local LKDF system results were compared with downscaled meteorological forecasts. Findings – The results showed that the majority of the LTK indicators used were accurate in forecasting weather and drought conditions when compared to the observed data of what the season turned out to be. LTK forecasts were found to be more accurate than meteorological forecast at local scale. This study has shown that the reliability of LTKs is high as demonstrated by the fact that the predicted event occurs. Research limitations/implications – Further validation be carried out for a number of seasons, in order to standardise the LTK indicators per geographical area. Originality/value – The research creates platform for adoption of LTKs into formal forecasting systems. The research is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource constrained communities in Mzingwane catchment.

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify, analyse and document local traditional indicators used in drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment and to assess the possibility of integrating traditional rainfall forecasting, using the local traditional indicators, with meteorological forecasting methods. Design/methodology/approach – Self-administered structured questionnaires were conducted on 101 respondents in four districts of the Mzingwane Catchment area, namely, Beitbridge, Mangwe, Esighodini and Mwenezi from February to August 2012. In addition, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used in data collection and the collected data were analysed for drought history and demographics; drought adaptation and the use of drought forecasting methods in the catchment using Statistical Package for Social Science. Findings – The paper reveals the growing importance of precipitation forecasts among Mzingwane communities, particularly the amount, timing, duration and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall was cited as the major cause of drought by 98 per cent of the respondents in the catchment. Whilst meteorological rainfall forecasts are available through various channels, they are not readily accessible to rural communities. Furthermore, they are not very reliable at local level. The paper shows that communities in the Mzingwane Catchment still regard local traditional knowledge forecasting as their primary source of weather forecasts. The paper finds that plant phenology is widely used by the local communities in the four districts for drought forecasting. Early and significant flowering of Mopane trees (Colophospermum mopane) from September to December has been identified to be one of the signals of poor rainfall season in respect to quantity and distribution and subsequent drought. Late and less significant flowering of Umtopi trees (Boscia albitrunca) from September to December also signals a poor rainfall season. Originality/value – The paper fulfils an identified need to study and document useful traditional drought indicators. Furthermore, the paper provides a platform for possible integration of traditional drought forecasting and meteorological forecasting and ensure sustainable rural livelihood development. The paper is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource-constrained communities in Mzingwane Catchment.

Objective: The aim of the present research was to evaluate the correlation of vertically transmitted IgG antibodies induced by T. cruzi and newborn early outcome assessment, mainly birth weight and gestational age. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study with 183 pregnant women (64 with asymptomatic Chagas disease) and their newborns. Both were subjected to complete clinical examination. Peripheral parasitemia was assessed in mother and neonates by parasite detection through microscopic examination of the buffycoat from mother’s peripheral and cord blood. Antibodies induced by T. cruzi, such as anti-FRA, anti-B13, anti-p2β and anti-T. cruzi were assessed by immunoassay. Birth weight, general condition evaluation by APGAR Score and gestational age by Capurro Score, were determined in newborns. Results: The rate of stillbirth background and pregnancy-induced hypertension were higher in patients with Chagas disease (p = 0.01 and p = 0.02, respectively). Parasitemia was detectable in 17 mothers and 4 newborns. The newborns of mothers with detectable parasitemia presented decreased gestational age (p = 0.006) and body weight (p = 0.04). Mostly all the mothers with Chagas disease and all their newborns have positive values of antibodies induced by T. cruzi; however, only anti-p2β showed to be related to the presence of complication during pregnancy (OR 2.35, p = 0.036), and to low birth weight (OR 1.55, p = 0.02). Conclusions: Low birth weight and decreased postnatal estimation of maturity were related to detectable parasitemia in the mother. Also, vertical transmission of T. cruzi-induced autoantibodies might have clinical implication in newborns given the negative association between anti-p2β values and weight. Fil: Vicco, Miguel Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Rodeles Antonelli, Luz María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Capovilla, Gabriela Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina Fil: Perrig, Melina Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina Fil: Choque, Ana Gabriela Herrera. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia Fil: Marcipar, Iván Sergio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Bottasso, Oscar Adelmo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; Argentina Fil: Rodriguez, Celeste. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia Fil: Cuña, Washington. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia

There is an urgent need in the University Teachers to create their own digital educational materials, (MED) that they allow them to customize and contextualize their areas of knowledge with an inclusive approach to support their academic practice as mediators' elements in the teaching-learning process. From this perspective, this text aims, guide, orient, and promote from the theory to practice in the design and production of digital teaching resources, through the paradigm of Learning Objects (OA) without the necessity to be a computer expert and taking into consideration and agile mythologies standards for construction.

Kenya is one of Africa’s most dynamic and entrepreneurial economies, but one with increasing water security risks. These risks are of growing concern to the poor; where it is clear current poverty metrics do not capture the impact and implications of water shocks or long-term human exposure to water risks. This report highlights 4 significant but uncertain developments that will interact to determine Kenya’s progress in its quest to reach middle-income status by 2030 and improve water security for over 17 million poor people: the impacts of decentralisation resilience to climate shocks reducing inequality harnessing mobile ecosystems. The report presents potential locations to establish Water Security Observatories that address these key issues and developments. Through a risk-based approach and science-practitioner partnerships, the observatories are proposed to examine ‘small towns in fragile lands’ and ‘build water secure institutions’ with the goal of reducing water security risks for the poor. This paper is an output from the REACH Improving Water Security for the Poor programme

Sodium accumulating playas (also termed sodic or natric playas) are typically covered by polygonal crusts with different pattern characteristics, but little is known about the short-term (hours) dynamics of these patterns or how pore water may respond to or drive changing salt crust patterning and surface roughness. It is important to understand these interactions because playa-crust surface pore-water and roughness both influence wind erosion and dust emission through controlling erodibility and erosivity. Here we present the first high resolution (10−3m; hours) co-located measurements of changing moisture and salt crust topography using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and infra-red imagery for Sua Pan, Botswana. Maximum nocturnal moisture pattern change was found on the crests of ridged surfaces during periods of low temperature and high relative humidity. These peaks experienced non-elastic expansion overnight, of up to 30 mm and up to an average of 1.5 mm/night during the 39 day measurement period. Continuous crusts on the other hand showed little nocturnal change in moisture or elevation. The dynamic nature of salt crusts and the complex feedback patterns identified emphasise how processes both above and below the surface may govern the response of playa surfaces to microclimate diurnal cycles.

Topographic depressions serve as the key spatial control on large global dust sources. In contrast, the temporal control on these hotspots has remained elusive. We provide the first global observational evidence that the annual cycle of emissions from dust hotspots is determined by an erosivity feature in the form of wind gustiness. We use TOMS AI and an aridity index to define 131 global dust hotspots. The correlation between the annual cycle of gustiness is 70% stronger than the corresponding correlation with wind. The mean significant correlation with wind (n = 106 hotspots) is 0.37 (σ = 0.24) and the mean of significant correlation (n = 118 hotspots) with gustiness is 0.64 (σ = 0.12). Whereas most model simulations of dust have relied on the broadscale wind, gustiness holds overwhelmingly more power in explaining the annual cycle of dust emissions from global dust hotspots.

Southern Africa is subject to strong interannual summer rainfall extremes associated with modes of climate variability. Interaction between these modes and the climate change signal make improving understanding of their future operation and links with southern African rainfall a priority. This paper examines future southern African summer rainfall variability related to meridional dipole mode of southwest Indian Ocean SST variability (thw SWIOD) in coupled climate model HadCM3. The SWIOD is central to southern African rainfall in a 1000-year control simulation, and remains so during the twenty-first century under two different CO2 forcing scenarios: SRES A2 and B1. Future rainfall variability connected with this mode is found to be sensitive to the emissions pathway, particularly in the second half of the century. Flooding episodes with anomalies near 4 mm day-¹ in already wet regions and which are unprecedented in a 1000 year control run are simulated under A2 SRES forcing.

This research uses data mining techniques to establish data predicting consumption of products that are grown in areas of the Andean region of Ecuador by relatives and marketed in alternative circuits that prevent intermediary called Cialcos to improve their income groups.

International audience; We present a characterization of the Saharan heat low (SHL) based on dropsonde observations made on 22 June 2011 by two simultaneously flying aircraft during the Fennec project. The observations are used to identify moisture transport pathways and to validate the UK Met Office limited area model for northern Africa (Africa-LAM). The observations capture the SHL, harmattan, and monsoon surge. The SHL has a northeast-southwest orientated elongated shape centered over northern Mauritania. The SHL core is associated with a 950 hPa temperature minimum (36.4°C) in the morning caused by the monsoon surge and a maximum (42.6°C) in the afternoon. The monsoon surge east of the SHL core splits into two transport pathways: (a) curving around the SHL core in the north, especially pronounced in a morning near-surface layer, and (b) northeastward transport within the ~2 km deep monsoon surge (afternoon observations only). In the morning the model forecasts the harmattan, monsoon surge, and the SHL geographic location and northeast-southwest orientation well but the model represents the SHL flatter and more spatially extended and overestimates the convective boundary layer (CBL) by up to ~0.3 km. The simulated afternoon SHL location appears shifted westward by up to ~1°. The model overestimates the shallow afternoon monsoon surge CBL depth of ~1.8 km by >2 km resulting in southwestward transport of vertically mixed moisture above ~2.5 km contrasting observed northeastward-only transport at lower levels. This moisture distribution model error is likely to have consequences for simulations of Saharan thermodynamics and dust emissions caused by convection-driven cold pools.

A distributed modeling approach is applied at a scale that permits visualization of hydrological drought conditions in different tertiary catchments. Hydrological drought sequences are calculated from runoff time-series data. Statistics of runoff and drought impact information from literature are applied to classify hydrological droughts on magnitude, duration, recurrent interval and impact to define a set of hydrological drought indices for specific conditions. The indices are applied on a sample of hydrological drought seasons in a selected primary catchment and visualized in a geographical information software. Scenarios are created to identify worst cases.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

The first size-resolved airborne measurements of dust fluxes and the first dust flux measurements from the central Sahara are presented and compared with a parameterization by Kok [2011a]. High frequency measurements of dust size distribution were obtained from 0.16-300 μm diameter and eddy covariance fluxes were derived. This is more than an order of magnitude larger size range than previous flux estimates. Links to surface emission are provided by analysis of particle drift velocities. Number flux is described by a -2 power law between 1 and 144 μm diameter, significantly larger than the 12 μm upper limit suggested by Kok [2011a]. For small particles, the deviation from a power law varies with terrain type and the large size cut-off is correlated with atmospheric vertical turbulent kinetic energy, suggesting control by vertical transport rather than emission processes. The measured mass flux mode is in the range 30-100 μm. The turbulent scales important for dust flux are from 0.1 km to 1-10 km. The upper scale increases during the morning as boundary layer depth and eddy size increase. All locations where large dust fluxes were measured had large topographical variations. These features are often linked with highly erodible surface features, such as wadis or dunes. We also hypothesize that upslope flow and flow separation over such features enhance the dust flux by transporting large particles out of the saltation layer. The tendency to locate surface flux measurements in open, flat terrain means these favored dust sources have been neglected in previous studies.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a crude Trypanosoma cruzi antigen (TCA) and its partially purified subfractions TCF1, TCF2 on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of normal donors and chagasic patients. TCFI and TCF2 stimulated cells from normal donors and chagasic patients in association with a significant production of interleukin (IL)-10. Only PBMC from chagasic patients multiplied after incubation with TCA and released mainly interferon-y but also IL-10. Neither the production of IL-2 and IL-4 nor CD4/CD8 ratios were changed after culture with antigens. These data suggest that some antigens active during the acute phase of T. cruzi infection would stimulate the production of cytokines that promote progression of infection, and the immune system can produce a desired cytokine(s) once the appropriate antigenic stimulus is used.