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Funder: Australian Government Australian Research Council linkage grant LP170101171, Funder: TW was supported by an anonymous gift to The Nature Conservancy, Funder: CL was supported by an Australian Laureate fellowship (FL200100133)., Funder: MIS was supported by a Julius Career Award from CSIRO and acknowledges the Coasts and Ocean Program ‘Nature-Based Solutions and Restoration’ research domain at CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere., Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

This is the first of a 2 study package looking to identify whether framing climate change messages using the Great Barrier Reef as the message frame enhances the effectiveness of messages (i.e. messages likely to elicit climate-related behaviours for the Great Barrier Reef). This is an online, cross-sectional experimental survey.

This is the second of a 2-study package looking to identify whether framing climate change messages using the Great Barrier Reef as the message frame enhances the effectiveness of messages (i.e. messages likely to elicit intentions to adopt climate-related behaviours for the Great Barrier Reef). This is an online, cross-sectional experimental survey.

Supplementary methods and figures

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. We conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

Background: Cognitively impaired older adults living in the community have been vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19 confinement. The current study’s objectives were to examine the prevalence of loneliness in such adults along with impact of COVID-19 on neuropsychiatric symptoms and functional status. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in community dwelling cognitively impaired older Veterans (N=41). Demographic data such as age, gender, race, and rurality were collected. Loneliness data were collected with the 3-item Loneliness Questionnaire. Cognition was assessed with the Tele-Montreal Cognitive Assessment (T-MoCA) and functional status of instrumental activities of daily living was assessed with the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ). Neuropsychiatry symptoms including severity and distress were collected using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI), and change during COVID was also recorded for each symptom. Results: Demographic characteristics included: mean age of 71.9 (±8.6) years, 95.1% male, 46.3% rural, 75.6% Caucasian, and 19.5% African American. Loneliness was prevalent in most participants (62.5%). T-MoCA and FAQ mean scores were 15.1 (±4.5) and 10.0 (±8.6), respectively. Mean NPI total severity and total distress were 8.4 (±5.9) and 11.4 (±8.5), respectively. Irritability was most frequently reported symptom (65%), followed by agitation (57.5%), anxiety (55%), depression (50%), and night-time behavior (50%). A majority of the participants reported worsening of neuropsychiatric symptoms during COVID (71.1%). Among those that reported worsening neuropsychiatric symptoms, 70.4% noted an increase in ≥ two symptoms. Conclusion: Older adults with pre-existent cognitive impairment may be at high risk for loneliness and worsening of neuropsychiatric symptoms during the COVID pandemic.

Tropical forest landscapes face competing demands for conserving biodiversity, sustaining ecosystem services and accommodating production systems such as forestry and agriculture. Land-sparing and land-sharing have emerged as contrasting strategies to manage trade-offs between production and biodiversity conservation. Both strategies are evident in land-management policies at local-to-international scales. However, studies rarely report the impacts of these strategies, assessed for multiple stakeholders and multiple ecosystem services, particularly in real landscapes. Using a case study from a high-priority region for forest protection, restoration and rural development in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, we analysed the potential outcomes under 10 alternative policy scenarios, including land-sharing, land-sparing and mixed strategies. We used a novel optimization process integrating integer programming with conservation-planning software (Marxan with Zones) to identify production possibility frontiers (PPFs), highlighting the trade-off between smallholder agriculture and oil palm, subject to achievement of a set of carbon, timber and biodiversity conservation targets. All policy scenarios modelled proved to be capable of achieving all targets simultaneously. Most strategies resulted in an expansion of the PPF from the baseline, increasing the flexibility of land allocation to achieve all targets. Mixed strategies gave the greatest flexibility to achieve targets, followed closely by land-sparing. Land-sharing only performed better than the baseline when no yield penalties were incurred, and resulted in PPF contraction otherwise. Strategies assessed required a minimum of 29-37 to be placed in conservation zones, notably protecting the majority of remaining forest, but requiring little reforestation. Policy implications. Production possibility frontiers (PPFs) can evaluate a broad spectrum of land-use policy options. When using targets sought by multiple stakeholders within an ecosystem services framework, PPFs can characterize biophysical, socio-economic and institutional dimensions of policy trade-offs in heterogeneous landscapes. All 10 policy strategies assessed in our case study are biophysically capable of achieving all stakeholder objectives, provided at least 29-37 of the landscape is conserved for biodiversity. This novel methodological approach provides practical options for systematic analysis in complex, multifunctional landscapes, and could, when integrated within a larger planning and implementation process, inform the design of land-use policies that maximize stakeholder satisfaction and minimize conflict. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Background: Conservation decisions not only impact wildlife, habitat, and environmental health, but also human wellbeing and social justice. The inclusion of safeguards and equity considerations in the conservation field has increasingly garnered attention in international policy processes and amongst conservation practitioners. Yet, what constitutes an ‘equitable’ solution can take many forms, and how the concept is treated within conservation research is not standardized. This review explores how social equity is conceptualized and assessed in conservation research. Methods/Design: Using a structured search and screening process, we identified 138 peer-reviewed studies that addressed equity in relation to conservation actions. The authors developed a coding framework to guide the review process, focusing on the current state of, definitions used for, and means of assessing social equity in empirical conservation research. Review Results: Results show that empirical research on social equity in conservation is rapidly growing, with the majority of studies on the topic published only since 2009. Equity within conservation research is skewed toward distributional concerns and to a lesser extent procedural issues, with recognition and contextual equity receiving little attention. Studies are primarily situated in forested biomes of the Global South. Conservation interventions mostly resulted in mixed or negative impacts on equity. Synthesis and Discussion: Our results demonstrate the current limitations of research on equity in conservation, and raise challenging questions about the social impacts of conservation and how to ameliorate equity concerns. Framing of equity within conservation research would benefit from greater transparency of study motivation, more explicit definition of how equity is used within the study context, and consideration for how best to assess it. We recommend that the empirical conservation literature more deeply engage with different notions of equity when studying, planning, and implementing actions to address potential trade-offs among equity and conservation objectives and beneficiaries.

Governments worldwide have implemented climate change mitigation policies that aim to encourage abatement by changing agricultural practices. In Australia, farmers can gain carbon credits for sequestering carbon or reducing emissions. In addition to mitigation, these 'carbon farming' activities often generate ancillary (co-)benefits, such as creating native habitat or preventing erosion. This paper presents results of an Australia-wide choice experiment, conducted to estimate community values for climate change mitigation and the co-benefits of carbon farming. Values for carbon farming benefits are shown to depend on respondent’s opinions about climate change. Respondents who do not believe that climate change is happening have a lower willingness to pay for reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions than people who believe climate change is (at least partly) caused by human actions. On average, respondents’ were willing to pay $1.13/Mt of CO2-e reduction. Respondents were willing to pay around $19/ha increase in the area of native vegetation on farmland. Value estimates for reducing soil erosion were not significant. Our results demonstrate that the community benefits from carbon farming extend beyond their effects on climate change mitigation. Future policies should take these positive values for co- benefits into account., Note: this is the authors’ post-print version of the following published and peer-reviewed article: Kragt M.E., Gibson, F.L., Maseyk, F., and Wilson, K.A. (2016) Public willingness to pay for carbon farming and its co-benefits. Ecological Economics. 126: 125-131.

Conservation triage seems to be at a stalemate between those who accept triage based on utilitarian rationalization, and those that reject it based on a number of ethical principles. We argue that without considered attention to the ethics of conservation triage we risk further polarization in the field of conservation. We draw lessons from the medical sector, where triage is more intuitive and acceptable, and also from disaster planning, to help navigate the challenges that triage entails for conservation science, practice, and policy. We clarify the consequentialist, deontological, and virtue ethical stances that influence the level of acceptance of triage. We emphasize the ethical dimensions of conservation triage in principle and in practice, particularly in the context of stakeholder diversity, a wide range of possible objectives and actions, broader institutions, and significant uncertainties. A focus on a more diverse set of ethics, more considered choice of triage as a conservation tool, open communication of triage objectives, and protocols, greater consideration of risk preferences, and regular review and adaptation of triage protocols is required for conservation triage to become more acceptable among diverse conservation practitioners, institutions, and the general public. Accepting conservation triage as fundamentally an ethical problem would foster more open dialog and constructive debate about the role of conservation triage in a wider system of care.

In many environmental and conservation policy contexts, gaps are observed between policy objectives and implementation outcomes. Carbon farming policies are designed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but policy success depends on the participation of land managers and their adoption of alternative land management practices. We surveyed Western Australian farmers to gauge their knowledge of carbon farming, their current adoption of carbon farming practices, and identified the drivers and barriers to adoption. Drivers for adoption included knowledge and perception of co-benefits (for yield, productivity, and the environment); beliefs and attitudes about climate change and its causes. Key barriers to the adopting carbon farming practices included policy and political uncertainty, and on-farm characteristics. We conclude that, to increase participation, the productivity benefits of carbon farming practices must be actively promoted and practices must be easy to integrate into existing farming systems.

In many environmental and conservation policy contexts, gaps are observed between policy objectives and implementation outcomes. Carbon farming policies are designed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but policy success depends on the participation of land managers and their adoption of alternative land management practices. We surveyed Western Australian farmers to gauge their knowledge of carbon farming, their current adoption of carbon farming practices, and identified the drivers and barriers to adoption. Drivers for adoption included knowledge and perception of co-benefits (for yield, productivity, and the environment); beliefs and attitudes about climate change and its causes. Key barriers to the adopting carbon farming practices included policy and political uncertainty, and on-farm characteristics. We conclude that, to increase participation, the productivity benefits of carbon farming practices must be actively promoted and practices must be easy to integrate into existing farming systems.

Within conservation literature increasing attention is on conservation opportunity valuing actual implementation. Previously focus has been on conservation priority among areas with the highest biological value or lowest cost. However, when nature management has to take place on private land through voluntary agreement it becomes important to know landowner preferences for such agreements. This study combines data from a choice experiment on landowner preferences with spatial data on the need for biodiversity conservation, groundwater protection and recreation. The aim is to discuss if spatial variation influences landowner preferences and the possibility of including preferences when prioritizing Preliminary results show a negative impact of increasing population density on willingness to provide recreation.

Within conservation literature increasing attention is on conservation opportunity valuing actual implementation. Previously focus has been on conservation priority among areas with the highest biological value or lowest cost. However, when nature management has to take place on private land through voluntary agreement it becomes important to know landowner preferences for such agreements. This study combines data from a choice experiment on landowner preferences with spatial data on the need for biodiversity conservation, groundwater protection and recreation. The aim is to discuss if spatial variation influences landowner preferences and the possibility of including preferences when prioritizing Preliminary results show a negative impact of increasing population density on willingness to provide recreation.

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.

Policy-driven shifts from net deforestation to forest expansion are being stimulated by increasing social preferences for forest ecosystem services. However, policy uncertainty can disrupt or reverse the positive effects of forest transitions. For instance, if the loss of remnant (primary) forest continues, the ecological benefits of net forest gains may be small. We investigated how peak periods of uncertainty in forest conservation policy affected forest transition outcomes in Queensland, Australia, as well as a globally-relevant biodiversity hotspot in the state, the Brigalow Belt South (BBS) bioregion. Political, socioeconomic, and biophysical factors associated with net forest cover change and remnant forest loss from 1991 to 2014 were identified through spatial longitudinal analysis. This informed a Bayesian structural causal impact assessment of command-and-control regulation and policy uncertainty on remnant and non-remnant forest cover. The results indicate that forest cover was negatively influenced by increasing temperatures, food prices, and policy uncertainty, and positively influenced by strengthening regulation. Regulation during 2007–2014 avoided 68,620 ± 19,214 km2 of deforestation (with 18,969 ± 10,340 km2 of this in remnant forests) throughout Queensland, but was ineffective on remnant forests in the BBS. For state-wide remnant forests, perverse effects from policy uncertainty (e.g. pre-emptive deforestation) were strong enough to negate regulatory impacts. This study reveals a cautionary tale for conservation policy: despite strict environmental regulations, forest transition can be delayed (or reversed) when political inconsistency or instability provoke unintended reactions from landholders Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Recent rates of deforestation on private lands in Australia rival deforestation hotspots around the world, despite conservation policies in place to avert deforestation. This study uses causal impact estimation techniques to determine if a controversial conservation policy-the Vegetation Management Act (VMA)-has successfully reduced deforestation of remnant trees in the Brigalow Belt South, a 21.6 Mha biodiversity hotspot in Queensland. Weuse covariate matching to determine the regulatory effect of the policy on deforestation rates over time, compared to two counterfactual scenarios representing upper and lower estimates of policy impact. The VMA significantly reduced the rate of remnant deforestation in the highest impact scenario, saving 17, 729 +/- 1733 ha during 2000-2016. In the lowest scenario, 'panic clearing' before and after enactment of the VMA minimized the amount of remnant forests saved and may have marginally increased deforestation relative to the counterfactual (-404 +/- 617 ha). At peak effectiveness, the VMA successfully counteracted the amount of remnant deforestation during 2010-2012, but this only represents 4.78% of the 371, 252 ha of remnant forests cleared in the bioregion since enactment in 1999. Thus, while deforestation rates in the region have substantially reduced since the policy was enacted, our results of positive yet limited direct regulatory impact suggests the policy's effectiveness is strongly confounded by other deforestation drivers, like changing socio-economic or climate conditions, as well as new social signals provoked by the policy. The mechanisms through which the policy influences deforestation behavior must be further investigated to ensure real, desirable change is achieved. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Environmental policies and regulations have been instrumental in influencing deforestation rates around the world. Understanding how these policies change stakeholder behaviours is critical for determining policy impact. In Queensland, Australia, changes in native vegetation management policy seem to have influenced land clearing behaviour of landholders. Periods of peak clearing rates have been associated with periods preceding the introduction of stricter legislation. However, the characteristics of clearing patterns during the last two decades are poorly understood. This study investigates the underlying spatiotemporal patterns in land clearing using a range of biophysical, climatic, and property characteristics of clearing events. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses were applied to identify dissimilarities between years along the political timeline. Overall, aggregate landholders' clearing characteristics remain generally consistent over time, though noticeable deviations are observed at smaller regional and temporal scales. While clearing patterns in some regions have shifted to reflect the policy's goals, others have experienced minimal or contradictory changes following regulation. Potential 'panic' or 'pre-emptive' effects are evident in the analysis, such as spikes in clearing for pasture expansions, but differ across regions. Because different regions are driven by different pressures, such as land availability and regulatory opportunity, it is imperative that the varying spatial and temporal behavioural responses of landholders are monitored to understand the influence of policy and its evolution. Future policy amendments would benefit from monitoring these regional responses from landholder s to better assess the effectiveness of policy and the potential perversities of policy uncertainty. Refereed/Peer-reviewed