Search

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

Two coupled general circulation models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models, were chosen to examine changes in mixed layer depth (MLD) in the equatorial tropical Pacific and its relationship with ENSO under climate change projections. The control experiment used pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations whereas the 2 x CO2 experiment used doubled CO2 levels. In the control experiment, the MLD simulated in the MRI model was shallower than that in the GFDL model. This resulted in the tropical Pacific's mean sea surface temperature (SST) increasing at different rates under global warming in the two models. The deeper the mean MLD simulated in the control simulation, the lesser the warming rate of the mean SST simulated in the 2 x CO2 experiment. This demonstrates that the MLD is a key parameter for regulating the response of tropical mean SST to global warming. In particular, in the MRI model, increased stratification associated with global warming amplified wind-driven advection within the mixed layer, leading to greater ENSO variability. On the other hand, in the GFDL model, wind-driven currents were weak, which resulted in mixed-layer dynamics being less sensitive to global warming. The relationship between MLD and ENSO was also examined. Results indicated that the non-linearity between the MLD and ENSO is enhanced from the control run to the 2 x CO2 run in the MRI model, in contrast, the linear relationship between the MLD index and ENSO is unchanged despite an increase in CO2 concentrations in the GFDL model.