1. Profit Loss Risk Modeling and Avoidance Decision of Power Selling Companies for Medium and Long-term Electricity Market
- Author
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Jingshu Yang, Xiao Gao, Zhaochun Luo, Zhou Shupeng, Jingbin Wu, Ming Wen, and Peipei You
- Subjects
Competition (economics) ,Expected shortfall ,Electricity generation ,Profit (accounting) ,Risk aversion ,business.industry ,Collusion ,Electricity market ,Business ,Electricity ,Industrial organization - Abstract
In the new round of electricity marketization reform, the opening up of the sales side market marks that the operation mode of China’s power market has started the transformation from wholesale competition mode to retail competition mode, and also means that the competition risks that were borne by the generation side alone in the past transaction process now need to be shared by the sales side. With the aggravation of market competition in power selling side, the risk of profit loss of power selling companies is becoming increasingly prominent in medium and long-term trading. On the basis of considering the different scenarios such as the annual long-term alliance and clean energy market, aiming at the risk factors such as collusion of power generation companies, instability of clean energy power generation output and uncertainty of actual electricity demand of users, the risk degree is determined by conditional value at risk method, the design of risk aversion factor is proposed, and the risk aversion model of profit loss of multi types of power sales companies is constructed, and the decision of avoiding is given.
- Published
- 2020
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