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Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved., John C Martin Foundation [2019-G024]; Gilead Sciences [IN-US-987-5808]; AbbVie [4200907861]; ZeShan Foundation [2021-0101-1-CDA-HEP-10]; The Hepatitis Fund; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan [19HC1001], This analysis was funded by a grant from the John C Martin Foundation (2019-G024) through the Polaris Observatory for low-income and middleincome countries. Grants for analyses in high-income countries and territories were provided by Gilead Sciences (IN-US-987-5808) and AbbVie (4200907861). ZeShan Foundation (2021-0101-1-CDA-HEP-10) supported country and regional analyses in Asia and The Hepatitis Fund supported country and regional analyses in Africa. We thank the Epidemiological Research Group on the Burden of Viral Hepatitis and Measures for its Elimination (grant number 19HC1001; led by JT) funded by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. We thank the contributors included in the appendix (pp 2-3), who contributed to the country or territory analyses but did not meet authorship requirements.

OBJECTIVE: Timely identification of acute or early HIV infection (AEHI) is important to help prevent onward transmission, and understanding the number of secondary infections resulting from individuals with AEHI is key to planning HIV prevention services and case finding. DESIGN: We performed a phylogenetic investigation of a dense sample of individuals with AEHI who took part in the Netherlands Cohort Study on Acute HIV infection (NOVA) in the Netherlands during 2015-2021. METHODS: Transmission clusters were identified using phylogenetic analyses based on HIV pol sequences. The Tamura-Nei model was used to estimate genetic distance. A number of 1000 bootstraps was used to check the reliability of clustering using maximum likelihood. A cluster was defined as having a bootstrap value of at least 95% and a genetic distance of at most 1.5%. Sensitivity analyses using different values for the bootstrap and genetic distance were performed to study the reproducibility of the clustering. RESULTS: Of the 156 participants included in NOVA between July 2015 and April 2021, 134 individuals for whom baseline characteristics and genotypic resistance data at baseline were available could be included. We identified 10 clusters, but the majority of persons (111/134) were not part of a cluster, suggesting mainly independent transmission events. CONCLUSION: Mainly independent transmission events among a study population consisting predominantly of MSM in a low-incidence high-resource setting is likely the result of active AEHI case finding and direct start of treatment, and the roll-out over recent years of preventive measures such as preexposure prophylaxis.

Background: Direct acting antivirals (DAA) cure 95% of patients infected with hepatitis C (HCV). Modeling studies predict that universal HCV treatment will lead to a decrease in the incidence of new infections but real-life data are lacking. The incidence of HCV among Dutch HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) has been high for >10 years. In 2015 DAA became available to all Dutch HCV patients and resulted in a rapid treatment uptake in HIV-positive MSM. We assessed whether this uptake was followed by a decrease in the incidence of HCV infections. Methods: Two prospective acute HCV treatment studies enrolled patients in 17 Dutch HIV centers, having 76% of the total HIV-positive MSM population in care in the Netherlands. Patients were recruited in 2014 and 2016, the year preceding and following unrestricted DAA availability. We compared the HCV incidence in both years. Results: The acute HCV incidence decreased from 93 infections during 8290 person years of follow up in 2014 (11.2/1000 PYFU, 95% CI 9.1-13.7) to 49 during 8961 PYFU in 2016 (5.5/1000, 95% CI 4.1-7.2). The incidence rate ratio of 2016 compared with 2014 was 0.49 (95% C.I. 0.35-0.69). Simultaneously, a significant increase in the percentage positive syphilis (+2.2%) and gonorrhea (+2.8%) tests in HIV-positive MSM was observed at sexual health clinics across the Netherlands and contradicts a decrease in risk behavior as an alternative explanation. Conclusions: Unrestricted DAA availability in the Netherlands was followed by a 51% decrease in acute HCV infections among HIV-positive MSM.

PMID: 25849352 WOS:000354825700001 Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes.We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05–1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06–1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12–1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01–1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12–1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92–1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions—a proxy for recent infection—yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs—K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A—accounted for >80% of NNRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. Sixteen nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs accounted for >69% of NRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. In SSA and SSEA, 89% of NNRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz, whereas only 27% of NRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to zidovudine, lamivudine, tenofovir, or abacavir. Of 763 viruses with TDR in SSA and SSEA, 725 (95%) were genetically dissimilar; 38 (5%) formed 19 sequence pairs. Inherent limitations of this study are that some cohorts may not represent the broader regional population and that studies were heterogeneous with respect to duration of infection prior to sampling.Most TDR strains in SSA and SSEA arose independently, suggesting that ARV regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance combined with improved patient adherence may mitigate TDR increases by reducing the generation of new ARV-resistant strains. A small number of NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of high-level resistance, suggesting that inexpensive point-mutation assays to detect these mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in regions with high levels of TDR. In the context of a public health approach to ARV therapy, a reliable point-of-care genotypic resistance test could identify which patients should receive standard first-line therapy and which should receive a protease-inhibitor-containing regimen. publishersversion published

PMID: 25849352 WOS:000354825700001 Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-14T22:02:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2015-04-01 publishersversion published

Background: HIV-1 genotypic drug resistance is an important threat to the success of antiretroviral therapy and transmitted resistance has reached 9% prevalence in Europe. Studies have demonstrated that HIV-1 DNA load in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) have a predictive value for disease progression, independently of CD4 counts and plasma viral load. Methodology/Principal Findings: Molecular-beacon-based real-time PCR was used to measure HIV-1 second template switch (STS) DNA in PBMC in newly-diagnosed HIV-1 patients across Europe. These patients were representative for the HIV-1 epidemic in the participating countries and were carrying either drug-resistant or sensitive viral strains. The assay design was improved from a previous version to specifically detect M-group HIV-1 and human CCR5 alleles. The findings resulted in a median of 3.32 log(10) HIV-1 copies/10(6) PBMC and demonstrated for the first time no correlation between cellular HIV-1 DNA load and transmitted drug-resistance. A weak association between cellular HIV-1 DNA levels with plasma viral RNA load and CD4(+) T-cell counts was also reconfirmed. Co-receptor tropism for 91% of samples, whether or not they conferred resistance, was CCR5. A comparison of pol sequences derived from RNA and DNA, resulted in a high similarity between the two. Conclusions/Significance: An improved molecular-beacon-based real-time PCR assay is reported for the measurement of HIV-1 DNA in PBMC and has investigated the association between cellular HIV-1 DNA levels and transmitted resistance to antiretroviral therapy in newly-diagnosed patients from across Europe. The findings show no correlation between these two parameters, suggesting that transmitted resistance does not impact disease progression in HIV-1 infected individuals. The CCR5 co-receptor tropism predominance implies that both resistant and non-resistant strains behave similarly in early infection. Furthermore, a correlation found between RNA-and DNA-derived sequences in the pol region suggests that genotypic drug-resistance testing could be carried out on either template.

The SPREAD Programme investigated prospectively the time trend from September 2002 through December 2005 of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) among 2793 patients in 20 European countries and in Israel with newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. The overall prevalence of TDR was 8.4% (225 of 2687 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4%-9.5%), the prevalence of nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance was 4.7% (125 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 3.9%-5.5%), the prevalence of nonucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance was 2.3% (62 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 1.8%-2.9%), and the prevalence of protease inhibitor (PI) resistance was 2.9% (79 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 2.4%-3.6%). There was no time trend in the overall TDR or in NRTI resistance, but there was a statistically significant decrease in PI resistance (P = .04) and in NNRTI resistance after an initial increase (P = .02). We found that TDR appears to be stabilizing in Europe, consistent with recent reports of decreasing drug resistance and improved viral suppression in patients treated for HIV-1 infection.

INTRODUCTION: Antiparkinsonian drugs can induce behavioural disturbances, which should be treated by first reducing antiparkinsonian drugs and/or starting a benzodiazepine. If this approach fails, then antipsychotics can be considered. The aim of this study was to determine how often antiparkinsonian drugs are decreased and benzodiazepines are started in levodopa users before start of an antipsychotic drug. METHODS: Data came from the PHARMO database, which includes drug dispensing records for all residents of six Dutch cities. All patients were selected who had started antipsychotic drug therapy at least 360 days later than, and 180 days before the earliest and the latest dispensing date for levodopa in PHARMO respectively. For each patient who started an antipsychotic drug we randomly selected 2 matched controls who used levodopa for at least 540 days and who did not start an antipsychotic. We determined how many persons had reduced antiparkinsonian drug treatment (i.e., dosage decrement or discontinuation of an antiparkinsonian agent) or had started a benzodiazepine in the 180 days before the start of the antipsychotic or before a randomly chosen index date in the controls. RESULTS: We identified 40 antipsychotic starters and 64 matched controls. The prescribed daily dose of antiparkinsonian drug treatment was reduced in 14 antipsychotic starters (37%) and in 17 controls prior to the index date (27%) (relative risk 1.27, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.08). Of these, 2 antipsychotic starters (5%) and 5 controls (8%) had started with a benzodiazepine (relative risk 0.73; 0.22-2.96). A further 34 antipsychotic starters (85%) and 49 controls (77%) returned later than expected to their community pharmacy before the index date (relative risk 1.43; 0.70-2.96). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that the advice to reduce the levodopa dose or to start with a benzodiazepine when behavioural disturbances occur during levodopa treatment prior to the start of an antipsychotic, is not followed in daily practice.