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Data from monitoring programs with high spatial resolution but low temporal resolution are often overlooked when assessing temporal trends, as the data structure does not permit the use of established trend analysis methods. However, the data include uniquely detailed information about geographically differentiated temporal trends driven by large-scale influences, such as climate or airborne deposition. In this study, we used geographically weighted regression models, extended with a temporal component, to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in environmental monitoring data. To improve the results, we tested approaches for station-wise pre-processing of data and for validation of the resulting models. To illustrate the method, we used data on changes in total organic carbon (TOC) obtained in a monitoring program of around 4800 Swedish lakes observed once every 6 years between 2008 and 2021. On applying the methods developed here, we identified nonlinear changes in TOC from consistent negative trends over most of Sweden around 2010 to positive trends during later years in parts of the country.

The southern regions of Sweden, Norway and Finland are among the areas in Europe most affected by surface water acidification (European Environment Agency, 2016). Since the 1980s, some steps have been taken to contrast this issue, which have contributed to a steady recovery of the water chemistry (Erlandsson et al., 2010). Among others, the Geneva Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution and its associated protocols have made an important contribution to the reduction of sulfate emissions (ibid.). In addition, monitoring programs have been put in place to detect patterns of acidification, and predict the long-term path to full recovery (European Environment Agency, 2016; Fölster et al., 2014). A number of models have been developed in order to study the long-term trends in the levels of PH and other acidifying variables of relevance (Moldan et al., 2013; Wright and Cosby, 2003). Those models are useful to evaluate the overall trend in the levels of water acidity, and discuss whether the process of recovery is going in the right direction. However, a limitation of those models is that they might overlook the occurrence of episodic acidification, which can have severe impacts on local ecosystems (Baker et al., 1996; Heard et al., 1997; Laudon, 2008). Sudden changes in the levels of acidity can be deadly to a large number of fish species, and undermine long-term biodiversity (ibid.). The purpose of this research is to contribute to fill this knowledge gap, by developing a framework to analyse, graphically and numerically, trends in the occurrence of episodic acidification. By combining the use of generalised additive models and quantile regression, models able to incorporate both seasonal and long-term time trends are developed. Patterns in episodic acidification are then illustrated with the help of visual tools first introduced by von Brömssen et al. (2021).

Mälarens vattenvårdsförbund, SMHI och Norrvatten har under mer än 50 år (1967-2019) samlat in vattenkemiska och meteorologiska data över ett antal viktiga vattenkvalitetsparametrar. Denna unika långa serie användes i denna rapport för att studera vilka signifikanta förändringar över tid som kan urskiljas, vilka som är de viktigaste drivvariablerna och om data kan användas för att dra slutsatser om Mälarens framtida vattenkvalitet i ett förändrat klimat.

Introduction Hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance (IR) are strongly associated with obesity and are forerunners of type 2 diabetes. Little is known about metabolic alterations separately associated with obesity, hyperinsulinaemia/IR and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in adolescents. Objectives To identify metabolic alterations associated with obesity, hyperinsulinaemia/IR and hyperinsulinaemia/IR combined with IGT in obese adolescents. Methods 81 adolescents were stratified into four groups based on body mass index (lean vs. obese), insulin responses (normal insulin (NI) vs. high insulin (HI)) and glucose responses (normal glucose tolerance (NGT) vs. IGT) after an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The groups comprised: (1) healthy lean with NI and NGT, (2) obese with NI and NGT, (3) obese with HI and NGT, and (4) obese with HI and IGT. Targeted nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics analysis was performed on fasting and seven post-OGTT plasma samples, followed by univariate and multivariate statistical analyses. Results Two groups of metabolites were identified: (1) Metabolites associated with insulin response level: adolescents with HI (groups 3-4) had higher concentrations of branched-chain amino acids and tyrosine, and lower concentrations of serine, glycine, myo-inositol and dimethylsulfone, than adolescents with NI (groups 1-2). (2) Metabolites associated with obesity status: obese adolescents (groups 2-4) had higher concentrations of acetylcarnitine, alanine, pyruvate and glutamate, and lower concentrations of acetate, than lean adolescents (group 1). Conclusions Obesity is associated with shifts in fat and energy metabolism. Hyperinsulinaemia/IR in obese adolescents is also associated with increased branched-chain and aromatic amino acids.

The induction of long-lasting clinical and virological protection is needed for a successful vaccination program against the bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV). In this study, calves with BRSV-specific maternally derived antibodies were vaccinated once, either with (i) a BRSV pre-fusion protein (PreF) and MontanideTM ISA61 VG (ISA61, n = 6), (ii) BRSV lacking the SH gene (ΔSHrBRSV, n = 6), (iii) a commercial vaccine (CV, n = 6), or were injected with ISA61 alone (n = 6). All calves were challenged with BRSV 92 days later and were euthanized 13 days post-infection. Based on clinical, pathological, and proteomic data, all vaccines appeared safe. Compared to the controls, PreF induced the most significant clinical and virological protection post-challenge, followed by ΔSHrBRSV and CV, whereas the protection of PreF-vaccinated calves was correlated with BRSV-specific serum immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibody responses 84 days post-vaccination, and the IgG antibody titers of ΔSHrBRSV- and CV-vaccinated calves did not differ from the controls on this day. Nevertheless, strong anamnestic BRSV- and PreF-specific IgG responses occurred in calves vaccinated with either of the vaccines, following a BRSV challenge. In conclusion, PreF and ΔSHrBRSV are two efficient one-shot candidate vaccines. By inducing a protection for at least three months, they could potentially improve the control of BRSV in calves.

Under året har provtagning utförts en gång i månaden vid 4 stationer i Fyrisån samt i tillflödena Vendelån, Jumkilsån och Sävjaån. Provtagning och analys har utförts av det ackrediterade kemiska laboratoriet vid institutionen för vatten och miljö, SLU (SWEDAC nr 1208) på uppdrag av Fyrisåns vattenförbund. Utöver detta har under sommaren 2020 provtagning för analys av 12 PFAS-substanser och cirka 80 andra organiska mikroföroreningar utförts vid tre av de ordinarie provtagningsstationerna samt vid fyra tillfälliga stationer, se Tabell 1. Dessa prover har analyserats på POPs-laboratoriet, forskningslaboratoriet för organiska miljöföroreningar, vid institutionen för vatten och miljö, SLU. Resultaten bifogas detta nyhetsbrev. Detta nyhetsbrev innehåller en kortfattad sammanfattning av årets analysresultat.

A number of studies have evaluated the effects of forest harvest on mercury (Hg) concentrations and exports in surface waters, but few studies have tested the effect from forest harvest on the change in fish Hg concentrations over the course of several years after harvest. To address this question, mercury (Hg) concentrations in perch (Perca fluviatilis) muscle tissue from five lakes were analyzed for two years before (2010-2011) and three years after (2013-2015) forest harvest conducted in 2012. Fish Hg concentrations in the clear-cut catchments (n = 1373 fish specimens) were related to temporal changes of fish Hg in reference lakes (n = 1099 fish specimen) from 19 lakes in the Swedish National Environmental Monitoring Programme. Small (length < 100 mm) and large perch (length >= 100 mm) were analyzed separately, due to changing feeding habitats of fish over growing size. There was considerable year-to-year and lake-to-lake variation in fish Hg concentrations (-14%-121%) after forest harvest in the clearcut lakes, according to our first statistical model that count for fish Hg changes. While the effect ascribed to forest harvest varied between years, after three years (in 2015), a significant increase of 26% (p < 0.0001) in Hg concentrations of large fish was identified in our second statistical model that pooled all 5 clearcut lakes. The large fish Hg concentrations in the 19 reference lakes also varied, and in 2015 had decreased by 7% (p = 0.03) relative to the concentrations in 2010-2011. The majority of the annual changes in fish Hg concentrations in the clearcut lakes after harvest were in the lower range of earlier predictions for high-latitude lakes extrapolated primarily from the effects of forest harvest operations on Hg concentrations in water. Since the risk of forest harvest impacts on Hg extends to fish and not just surface water concentrations, there is even more reason to consider Hg effects in forestry planning, alongside other ecosystem effects.

Background: Provision of shelter for horses kept on summer pasture is rarely considered in welfare guidelines, perhaps because the benefits of shelter in warm conditions are poorly documented scientifically. For cattle, shade is a valued resource during summer and can mitigate the adverse effects of warm weather on well-being and performance. We found in a previous study that horses utilized shelters frequently in summer. A shelter with a roof and closed on three sides (shelter A) was preferred and can reduce insect pressure whereas a shelter with roof and open on three sides was not utilized. However, shelter A restricts the all-round view of a horse, which may be important for horses as flight animals. Therefore, we studied whether a shelter with roof, where only the upper half of the rear wall was closed (shelter B), would be utilized while maintaining insect protection properties and satisfying the horses' sense for security. A third shelter was offered with walls but no roof (shelter C) to evaluate whether the roof itself is an important feature from the horse's perspective. Eight Warmblood horses were tested each for 2 days, kept individually for 24 h in two paddocks with access to shelters A and B, or shelters A and C, respectively. Shelter use was recorded continuously during the night (1800-2400 h, 0200-0600 h) and the following day (0900-1600 h), and insect defensive behaviour (e.g., tail swish) in instantaneous scan samples at 5-min intervals during daytime.Results: Seven horses used both shelters A and B, but when given the choice between shelters A and C, shelter C was scarcely visited. There was no difference in duration of shelter use between night (105.8 +/- 53.6 min) and day (100.8 +/- 53.8, P = 0.829). Daytime shelter use had a significant effect on insect defensive behaviours (P = 0.027). The probability of performing these behaviours was lowest when horses used shelter A compared to being outside (P = 0.038).Conclusions: Horses only utilized shelters with a roof whilst a shelter with roof and closed on three sides had the best potential to lower insect disturbance during daytime in summer.

Kvävenedfallet har stor betydning för försurning och övergödning. Uppdraget har finansierats av Naturvårdsverket, med syfte att förbättra underlaget för att följa upp miljökvalitetsmålet Bara naturlig försurning . En ny, unik databas har etablerats, med de flesta mätningar som har skett i Sverige av nederbördsmängder och -kemi på öppet fält från 1955 och fram till idag. Beräkningar av nedfallet av oorganiskt kväve (NO3- + NH4+) med nederbörden (våtdepositionen) vid de sammanlagt 362 mätplatserna visar att nedfallet är högre i hela Sverige idag än när mätningarna startade 1955. Data visar en stor variation i kvävenedfallet mellan mätplatser och år, vilket gör det svårt att detektera statistiskt signifikanta förändringar över tid. Nedfallet av kväve med nederbörden till Sverige ökade signifikant under 20-årsperioden 1970-1989 i sydvästra Sverige, men inte i sydöstra eller norra Sverige. Under 20-årsperioden 1990-2009 skedde ingen förändring av nedfallet i norra eller sydvästra Sverige, men i sydöstra Sverige minskade nedfallet av olika kväveformer med nederbörden signifikant. Parallellt har kvävenedfallet uppskattats med MATCH-modellen med två olika simuleringar. Den ena simuleringen (TRENDMATCH) har använt indata från observerad meteorologi tillsammans med emissioner bestämda inom EMEP-programmet medan den andra (KLIMATMATCH) använder meteorologi från en klimatmodell och emissioner sammanställt för RCP4.5. Den med TRENDMATCH modellerade depositionen visar nedåtgående trender för såväl NO3- som NH4+ från 1990 till 2009 i alla regioner. Resultaten från KLIMATMATCH visar inte lika tydliga trender för NH4+, beroende på att de historiska emissionerna i RCP4.5 databasen både visar upp- och nedåtgående trender för perioden. Trender i kvävenedfall beräknade med MATCH-modellen är till mycket stor del styrda av trender i de emissioner som används av spridningsmodellen. Det kan finnas flera orsaker till att vi inte ser tydliga trender i kvävenedfallet under de senaste decennierna. Trendanalyser kräver data med långa tidsserier, vilket av olika orsaker ofta saknas. Om kvävenedfallet har förändrats, men förändringen är liten, så är det svårt eller omöjligt att urskilja detta ur de stora slumpmässiga mellanårsvariationerna. Det är också möjligt att nedfallet inte har förändrats, trots minskande emissioner i Europa, på grund av ändrade atmosfärskemiska förhållanden (t ex klimat och minskande svavelemissioner), eller om utsläppen av kväve från källor som är av vikt för Sverige inte har minskat i samma utsträckning som emissionerna för Europa som helhet har. Det är också svårt att uppskatta kväveemissioner, vilket i rapporten illustreras av de två emissionsuppskattningar som har använts, där den ena rapporterar minskande emissioner av ammoniak och den andra ökande. För att uppnå precision och statistiskt kunna säkerställa förhållandevis små förändringar i kvävenedfallet, i storleksordningen 20 procent under en period av 20 år, behövs mätningar vid ett stort antal platser runt om i landet. Vi föreslår en genomgång av hur de framtida mätningarna av kvävenedfallet, som utgör basen för övervakningen, bör utformas. En viktig punkt är att existerande stationer med långa tidsserier bör bevaras, något som kräver långsiktig finansiering.