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In response to economic hurdles, several countries turn to devaluing their national currencies as a way to cope with economic difficulties. Such acts have a variety of effects on many industries, including real estate, which has led to multiple institutional and regulatory reformations aiming at minimising these effects. This paper uses a system thinking methodology that emphasises underpinning relationships among all entangled components to examine how such reforms affect minimising risks associated with currency devaluation on the real estate market. This paper uses this methodology beyond linear cause-effect analyses to consider interactions and interconnectedness in order to give some insights to gain: * The impact of the currency devaluation on the real estate market based on Egyptian recent situation. * The unintended consequences of government reforms on real estate market variables * Solution leverage points where to intervene in the system. * Holistic understanding which enables decision makers to see a wider picture and factors. Egypt has faced severe fluctuations in the economic climate, which has entailed a sharp devaluation of the currency three times between 2016 and 2023 (which could be considered a special aggressive case study between countries due to repetitiveness and effects). The effects of this devaluation have extended to all sectors, and the most important of these effects was severe challenges that faced the real estate market performance. The Real Estate market (REM) recently in Egypt has faced huge recession of transactions of the market. This research focuses on understanding the relations of reforms of the regulations which is designed to give a comprehensive overview of the government reforms of RE business, and how it has been interacting with the ramifications of those currency devaluation impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrepreneurship education (EE) is about developing students' ability to create economic, social, or cultural value. For sustainable development and achieving the SDGs, collaboration and new alliances will be of key importance. Collaboration can drive and enable innovative practices that bring benefits to the environment, society and organizations. A fully circular economy (CE), aiming to keep resources in economic cycles as long as possible, is required according to the European Green deal. In this paper the connection between sustainability, collaboration, and mentoring in entrepreneurship education has been strengthened. Two theoretical positions have been selected: (1) Entrepreneurship, sustainability and collaboration; and (2) Entrepreneurship education anchored in experiential learning and collaborative orientation in universities' Third Mission. EE and entrepreneurial pedagogy lay out student centered principles for experiential learning, aiming to develop students' creativity, opportunity orientation and innovation skills. Mentoring is an experiential learning concept, regarded as fruitful in higher education and widely used in the business industry. Student teams are often challenged with real-world problems. We explore a collaborative project initiating and structuring industry mentors. The educational setting is two courses at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences (HVL) with partially common educational activities. The course challenges come from organizations in the region and are rooted in sustainability and CE. During 2019 industry mentors were assessed in a pilot-project and implemented after proving the viability of the idea. Initiating industry mentors shows positive outcome, and the three main findings are: (1) Industry mentors seems to cover an important function and role the professors do not cover; (2) Engaging industry mentors confirms the perceived need for structure and a collaboration network; and (3) Applying industry mentor service can lead to more outward and practice-oriented professors and university. Sustainability orientation and external collaboration by industry mentors' entails promising possibilities for experiential learning, knowledge development, networking, value creation, and educational re-directing in line with the Third Mission of Higher Education (HEI). A deeper understanding of entrepreneurial mentoring and the role of industry mentors is achieved. There is a need for further empirical examination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of predator-prey models in economics has a long history, and the model equations have largely evolved since the original Lotka-Volterra system towards more realistic descriptions of the economic dynamics of predation, competition, and synergy. Seminal examples in this regard are the business cycle model (Goodwin, 1967), chaotic hysteresis (Rosser, 1994), and the models of renewable resources (Clark, 1990). Given this background, this paper aims to analyse the mechanism of economic competition under different conditions, by adopting the unifying framework of niche models. Niche models are dynamic competition models that allow for a richer description of the interacting economic variables than the neoclassical economic theory. We conduct a qualitative study of the dynamic behaviour of firms of different types/sizes in the province di Bologna (Italy), analyzing - in discrete time - their competition through simulation experiments. It emerges that the economic system under analysis is coherent with different (in)stability patterns depending on different configurations of the firms within the market, by confirming the theory of industrial districts in the northeast of Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politica y Sociedad is the property of Universidad Complutense de Madrid and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the present context, the consumption and saving patterns are subjected to change both locally and worldwide. The evidence on consumption reveals the importance of data handling and processing using the most relevant tools available. This research paper looks into official statistics data of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for milling and baking products and is based on seasonal adjustment. As such, JDemetra+ software is selected as officially recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment. First section presents the official software recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment, while section two discusses the characteristics and functionalities of the software. Furthermore, the following section presents the selected seasonal adjustment technique and describes the usage of monthly data. Section four analysing the results of all the seasonality tests for the selected series is followed next by a brief concluding remarks and observations section. Moreover, in terms of the conducted analysis, the paper examines to test JDemetra+ 3.0.0 pre-release version against JDemetra+ 2.2.4. Evidence favouring JDemetra+ 2.2.4 is obtained, the results showing that some new strategies might be needed in order to obtain better results on seasonal adjustment process using TRAMO-SEATS in JDemetra+ 3.0.0. Seasonal adjustment practitioners in official statistics should be aware and recognize the impact of statistical package selection. In this respect, optimal selection of analysis procedures is needed in the evaluation of a series and thus migrating from JDemetra+ 2.2.4 to JDemetra+ 3.0.0 is problematic without employing resources in developing appropriate strategies for improvement of the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article offers a chronological review of Jornal Nacional, Brazil's popular TV news programme, covering eight presidential elections post-redemocratization. With 108 texts analysed, including journal articles, conference papers, theses, and dissertations, the study focused on 'Jornal Nacional' and 'presidential election' keywords. It reconstructs a detailed historical account of pivotal electoral moments in Brazilian politics as portrayed on TV. The most significant discovery is the enduring scrutiny of the 1989 Lula vs. Collor debate's shortened version aired by the newscast. Notably, there's a lack of English-language publications on this topic. Brazil's economic fluctuations from 1989 to 2018, ranking between 6th and 12th globally, emphasize the need for international research attention to its political mass communication coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to assess the impact of output changes on gender-, age- and educational attainment level-specific employment considering two business cycle phases. It also aims to answer whether education is essential in reducing the risk of losing a job during an economic downturn. Methodology: We employ the first differences approach to evaluate the asymmetric response of different employment types to output changes in 27 EU countries from 2000 to 2020. The Eurostat database provides the data for this analysis, and we use the Pooled OLS estimation technique for our calculations, ensuring the robustness of our findings. Findings: The results of this study are significant, indicating that during periods of economic upturn, the reaction of employment to output changes is weaker than during economic downturn. This is a crucial insight, as it suggests that the negative impact on employment is more severe, particularly for young and less educated individuals, with men generally facing sharper declines in employment compared to women. However, older and more educated workers exhibit greater job stability during economic downturns, highlighting the protective role of higher education and experience. These findings underscore the importance of education in reducing the risk of job loss during economic downturns, a key point of this research. Originality: This research stands out for its comprehensive examination of how employment reacts to output changes in the EU, considering the asymmetric output-employment relationship and the various employment types segmented by age, gender, and educational attainment levels. The findings underscore the necessity for targeted measures to uphold employment stability across diverse economic circumstances and demographic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the responses of credit and business cycle to various policy actions of the Government of Indonesia during the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, the paper addresses two key questions (1) How do the credit and business cycle behave during the COVID-19 crisis in Indonesia? (2) Do the central bank and government policy responses effectively stabilize the credit and business cycle? Using the concordance Index and DCC-GARCH methodology, we found that the COVID-19 crisis increased Indonesia's credit and business cycle co-movements. Similarly, using the mixed data sampling regression technique, our findings suggest fiscal policy measures and government support help the business cycle revival during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the monetary policy transmission is weak during the pandemic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The manufacturing sector has been regarded as a key factor in the history of economic development and growth. However, economic fluctuations affect manufacturing seriously. This study examines the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on Turkish manufacturing sector profitability. This paper uses micro-econometric difference in differences methods in conjunction with the macroeconomic forecasting method to investigate how profit levels in the Turkish manufacturing industry are affected by the crisis. The results indicate that the profit levels changed significantly after the crisis with a one-year lag and actual profits exceeded the estimated profits in the later years. Economic impacts of crises have long been investigated; however, this paper differs from the literature in using a new analytical framework for the issue. The suggested method can be expanded to other areas, which can spark new future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of economic cycle, this paper describes the failure mechanism of the associated credit risk contagion among enterprises by constructing a cascade effect model, and further simulates and analyses the anti-credit risk capability of the enterprise network. It is found that the anti-credit risk capability of the associated enterprise network is enhanced with the increase of enterprises redundant resources. In the process of the prosperity and development of the economic cycle, the credit risks encountered by large enterprises are more likely to cause cascade effect in the enterprise network. This paper expands the application scope of the cascade effect model, and provides a new perspective for enterprises to manage and control credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to construct a monthly carbon emission index based on energy combustion in order to investigate its predictive power for the real GDP growth rate in the United States. Our objective is to evaluate and quantify the predictive performance and the potential impact of carbon-related factors on the GDP growth rate. We define the carbon emission index as the change rate index of monthly carbon dioxide emissions after accounting for seasonal effects, encompassing five sectors of energy consumption (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric power). Our findings demonstrate the robust and exceptional predictive capability of the newly developed carbon emission indices for GDP growth rates, particularly in relation to the transportation and industrial sectors. Moreover, in addition to popular macroeconomic variables, the carbon emission index contains incremental predictive information. The results obtained under diverse business cycle conditions and during the COVID-19 Pandemic further underscore the significance of our study. The findings of this paper provide more concise and efficient predictors for GDP growth rate forecasts. • This paper examines the relationship between carbon dioxide and economic growth. • This paper constructs a new set of carbon emission indexes (CEI) • These indexes have robust and excellent predictive power for GDP growth rate. • In particular, the carbon emission indices of the transportation sector and the industrial sectors show the strongest predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ensayos - Revista de Economía is the property of Ensayos Revista de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

With the proposal of sustainable development goals, the world has placed increasing emphasis on energy transition and green, low-carbon initiatives, leading to the emergence of green technology. This article explores the spillover effects among green technology innovation (GTI), oil prices (OP), clean energy (CE), sustainable development (SD), and economic cycles (EC) with the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness method. The empirical results demonstrate that, in static analysis, the short-term connectedness is significantly stronger than that in the long term. SD serves as the main transmitter, while EC acts as the primary receiver. Furthermore, dynamic analysis suggests that spillover effects fluctuate with time and frequency. Finally, the net direction and net pairwise connectedness reveal that GTI is favorable for mitigating OP shocks and accelerating EC in the long term, while it is driven by CE and SD in the short term. The contribution of this paper lies in its incorporation of GTI, energy markets, economic cycles, and SD into a unified framework, and its detailed analysis of the channels of influence. Also, based on a time-frequency domain perspective, the paper dynamically examines the different performances of specific markets in the short or long term. Finally, the paper proposes some policy recommendations, including the strengthening of green technology innovation and the acceleration of energy transition. • The connectedness among GTI, OP, CE, SD and GLI are presented. • Spillover effects are more significant in the short term. • GTI accepts the spillover effects of ESG and CEI in the short term. • OP and CLI exert dynamic influence on GTI in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes Okun's Law for Spain using regional data. The results confirm a very high Okun coefficient for Spain, with a high degree of regional heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that panel data techniques provide notably more stable estimates than time series techniques applied to the same regional data. Finally, the results reveal a remarkable degree of regional heterogeneity in cyclical asymmetry in Okun's Law for the Spanish case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ensayos - Revista de Economía is the property of Ensayos Revista de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revue Economique is the property of Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Prefabricated housing estates represent an important urban, architectural and historical phenomenon in the Czech Republic. Most people prefer to live in prefabricated buildings because of their central location, good transport services and a lot of amenities in their vicinity. Owners or tenants of flats prefer prefabricated buildings after revitalization, as they are more affordable than new developments and at the same time do not have such high energy consumption costs as prefabricated buildings without revitalization. The paper aims to focus on the energy savings of a specific prefabricated building. The heating consumption and the resulting monetary savings are addressed. The aim of the research is the performance of economic and life cycle analyses of the building. Firstly, the original condition of the prefabricated building and the extent of the revitalization carried out in 2001 were specified. Secondly, an energy assessment of the apartment building was carried out, where the heating consumption before and after the revitalization of the apartment building was determined and the resulting heat savings for each year of the assessment were determined in the appropriate units (GJ, kWh/(m2/yr)). Economic indicators and life cycle costs were determined based on the modelling of the heat price development and possible energy savings. Currently, there has been a huge increase in energy prices. The reason for the price increase is the current situation in the wholesale market, where the prices have been reaching extreme amounts for several months and their further development is difficult to predict. The energy crisis has deepened as a result of the geopolitical situation. Customers are expected to experience a further increase in the electricity and gas prices since the prices can increase by up to tens of per cent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with issues related to the increase in the cost of purchasing energy, following the secondary effects related to the liberalization of the markets, which will lead the main clients from the business environment in Romania to conclude that the increase in the cost of energy is a consequence of the decisions established by the main players in the market, those who provide energy and natural gas, decisions aimed at maximizing their profit. In a much more detailed research, a series of remarks can be made, such as that at the basis of the increase in the purchase regarding the fluctuations in the cost of natural gas cost variations of energy and natural gas that consumers have to bear, there are a multitude of aspects imposed by the European Union. and energy, fluctuations that have proven to have created fluctuations in the business environment in our country over time. Following the research carried out, we can conclude that the main causes of the energy and natural gas market that create imbalances in the business environment are: - stock market fluctuations which in the current context have proven to be very dynamic and very unpredictable in extremely sudden changes; - energy import and transformations generated by cross-border flows; - the return to the consumption recorded before the pandemic period; - the reorganization of the geopolitical space based on the decisions imposed by the Russian Federation has a very big impact; - non-exploitation of natural gas stocks from warehouses to the maximum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contaduría y Administración is the property of Facultad de Contaduria y Administracion-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper explores the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) misalignments and economic fundamentals with respect to the exchange rate regime choice. In a first step, using the technical inefficiency model, we measure RER misalignments and, more specifically, RER overvaluation. In a second step, we assess the effects of the main economic indicators and the choice of a country's exchange rate regime on RER overvaluation. Our empirical findings, based on nonlinear specifications and impulse response functions of Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) estimations, reveal that for developing countries, and during the expansion and peak phases of the business cycle, the floating exchange rate regime may be used as a policy tool to contain the pressure in the exchange rate, and so limit overvaluation. Our findings also reveal that in the context of fixed and intermediate exchange rate regimes, an expansionary monetary policy is an effective tool to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations and mitigate overvaluation. • We estimate exchange rate misalignment by using a semi-parametric approach based on a technical inefficiency model. This approach allows us to address the well-known puzzle that fundamental variables provide little help in predicting changes in exchange rate models. •By means of an impulse response function estimation of the PVAR model, we evaluate the response of both overvaluation and economic fundamentals to different shocks. •Our empirical findings reveal that economic and monetary expansions appear to be associated with lower overvaluations. However, our evaluation of the impact of an increase in growth rate with respect to exchange regimes leads us to conclude that the more flexible the currency regime, the lower the misalignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has already ushered in a new economic development stage and its main driving force for the high-quality economic development has gradually shifted to innovation and entrepreneurship and high-level innovative talents. Existing research has ignored to some extent the discussion on regional differences and underdeveloped areas. To this end, this paper studies the operating mechanism of university innovation and entrepreneurship education and its contribution to regional economy. First, based on the theories of human capital and regional economic development, a labor output elasticity estimation model was constructed for regional human resources, to measure the contribution rate of the innovation and entrepreneurship education in regional universities to regional economic development. Considering the complex relationship between university innovation and entrepreneurship education and regional economic development and fluctuations, a suitable VAR model was constructed based on the economic theory to analyze and empirically study the relationship between the two. Finally, the calculation results of the contribution rates of the university innovation and entrepreneurship education in the region and various sub-regions were provided based on the experiment, which verified the effectiveness of the calculation method and analysis model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic performance of countries depends on the stages of the business cycle and changes due to various factors and influences. While the economic crisis of 2008 was triggered by financial factors, the crisis of 2020 was caused by factors of a non-economic nature - the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to assess changes in the performance and level of economic activity in the Visegrad Group economies in 2009, 2019 and 2020. This assessment is performed using GDP per capita, magic square and the misery index. In 2009, the best performing country was the Czech Republic and the worst was Hungary. In 2019 and 2020, Poland reached a performance level similar to the Czech Republic, and Slovakia performed the worst. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I analyze how government size used as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and inflation targeting influence the amplitude of the business cycle and private consumption volatility in a sample of developing countries, for the period between 1990 and 2018. Taking into account the potential endogeneity of these variables, and controlling for the exogenous variation in trade openness, the analysis provides strong evidence that government size significantly reduces business cycle volatility while it exerts no significant impact on private consumption volatility. On the other hand, adopting inflation targeting significantly increases the amplitude of the volatility of real output growth, while significantly decreasing private consumption volatility. The implemented form of the inflation targeting regime does not introduce any significant changes in the obtained results. The findings seem to provide evidence that there is a potential for an improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policy actions in developing countries that have adopted inflation targeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and understand how the infamous fluctuations in freight rates influence (spill over) upstream (shipper and ship-manufacturing) and downstream (ports and ship-recycling) from the perspective of a vertical maritime supply chain. Rate volatility spillovers are examined in the time and frequency domains. As to be expected, the intensity and direction of spillovers differ across time. In general, however, freight rates exert a spillover effect on both the shipbuilding and ship-recycling markets, with a more pronounced impact on the former. We find that the period after 2013 saw a negative impact of freight rates on shippers and ports, primarily due to increased volatility in the global shipping market, which introduced significant unpredictability in shipping costs and operational planning. In the frequency domain, we establish a complex long-term trend and market cyclicality, linked to the general economic cycle. In addition, we calculate industry concentration in the ocean transportation of containers, to understand the impact of alliances and acquisitions (A&A) on freight rates and their spillover effects. Less evidence of industry concentration efforts is observed in prosperous shipping markets where freight rates are sufficiently rewarding. Instead, a higher level of activity towards concentration is observed in periods of market downturns. In such periods, A&As are seen to have a more profound effect on rate spillovers. The study furnishes empirical evidence concerning the spillover effects of freight rates across diverse markets, shedding light on the interconnectedness and dynamics within the various segments of the maritime supply chain. Moreover, we elucidate the significant role played by strategic alliances and acquisitions in the maritime sector, providing a nuanced comprehension of how industry structure influences business behavior and market volatility. The insights garnered from this research hold substantial value for policymakers and business strategists navigating the shipping industry's intricacies, offering them crucial data to support their decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the determinants of economic cycles in Chinese provinces, examining factors like information accessibility, communication infrastructure, technical innovation, and energy usage patterns. The research unveils a negative impact of green exports on economic cycles, potentially influenced by China's recent stringent environmental regulations. The findings suggest that basic communication facilities and energy consumption structure pose initial hindrances to economic cycles. Yet, they foster information dissemination and technical innovation. Despite the negative influence of green imports and specific technology-oriented trade segments on economic cycles, the study underscores the imperative of prioritizing long-term sustainability. It emphasizes the adverse association between energy consumption structure and economic cycles, highlighting the necessity of transitioning to cleaner energy sources despite short-term financial implications. The outcomes are in harmony with the evolving nature of these associations, underscoring the pivotal role of flexible policies and holistic development strategies in steering China's quest for green and sustainable economic development. • Examine green trade and technology-oriented trade on economic cycles • System GMM, Threshold dynamic panel threshold regression and KLS are used. • Negative effects of green exports on economic cycles • Underscores technology-oriented trade on economic cycles in long-term sustainability • Adverse association between energy consumption structure and economic cycles [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate a market without money in which every agent offers indivisible goods in multiple copies, in exchange for goods of other agents. The exchange must be balanced in the sense that each agent should receive a quantity of good(s) equal to the one she transfers to others. We describe the market in graph-theoretic terms hence we use the notion of circulations to describe a balanced exchange of goods. Each agent has strict preferences over the agents from which she will receive goods and an upper bound on the quantity of each transaction, while a positive integer weight reflects the social importance of each unit exchanged. In this paper, we propose a simple variant of the Top Trading Cycles mechanism that finds a Pareto optimal circulation. We then offer necessary and sufficient conditions for a circulation to be Pareto optimal and, as a consequence, a easy recognition procedure. Last, we show that finding a maximum weight Pareto optimal circulation is NP-hard but becomes polynomial if weights are concordant with preferences. • Introducing a preference-based exchange market without money. • Providing a mechanism that returns a Pareto optimal exchange. • Characterization and recognition of Pareto optimal exchanges. • Showing that maximum weight Pareto optimal exchange is NP-hard and computing it in some special cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where money and public debt play crucial roles in influencing the effects and transmission mechanisms of fiscal stimulus was developed in this paper. The model was estimated using data from the Chinese economy and then used to analyse the economic and financial dynamics and effects of fiscal stimulus under different fiscal financing scenarios. The simulation results revealed that, contrary to previous findings, a money-financed stimulus is not output-promoting and may lead to significant fluctuations in the main economic and financial variables. Meanwhile, despite the adverse effect of a high-debt environment on its short-term effects, expanded government spending stimulus engenders long-term enhancements of fiscal effectiveness at higher levels of public debt. As for tax cut stimulus, the short-term impact on promoting output is improved under higher public debt, whereas the long-term adverse effect is strengthened as public debt grows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The position of developing countries (DC) in the international financial system is the topic on which Dragoslav Avramović worked throughout his successful scientific career. This paper extends his research towards an empirical analysis of the importance of spillovers from the changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the country risk premium and exchange rate in Serbia over the most intense phase of the Euro crisis (2008-2012). Empirical results suggest that the ECB policy changes during the crisis significantly spilled over to financial markets only in several dimensions. The policies did not have a statistically significant effect on the level of the exchange rate and of the risk premium. However, they had a significant effect on the rise in uncertainty, especially in the case of ECB's foreign exchange liquidity and monetary stimulus measures. Our empirical results imply that the changes in monetary policy in advanced economies can drive uncertainty spillovers across the financial markets, thereby also affecting the business cycle fluctuations in emerging markets (EM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalisation is the concept used to describe the economic, financial and social interdependence of states, generated by cross-border trade in goods, services, information, investment, technology and people. Demographic, political, technological evolution, economic interests and many other factors influence globalization, the general definition of which is modulating according to the realities of each generation. In this context, the academic environment updates the specialized literature, nuanced the terminology and theoretical aspects according to the evolution of the phenomenon, which is constantly changing. In the current context in which humanity is, in the midst of a global health crisis and with the prospect of an economic crisis, globalization brings benefits and disadvantages alike and returns to the attention of academia. Thus, the dilemma "Globalization or deglobalization?" becomes more topical than ever. This paper is an introspection in the conceptual aspects of globalization, in order to highlight the advantages brought to the economic and financial evolution, the factors of influence, as well as the risks that an interconnected society has. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credit markets play a key role in the economic cycle of the advanced economies. The main objective of this paper is to assess, through an empirical analysis, if there is a link between the evolution of credit activity and economic growth in the current economic context. The econometric model used to determine the relationship between variables is that of multiple linear regression using a total of 120 panel observations for the years 2000-2019. A sample of data consisting of six developed countries such as Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom was used to make the following model. The dependent variable, which determines economic growth, is calculated as the annual percentage growth rate to GDP. The results of the econometric model showed that there is a statistically significant direct relationship between economic growth and the factors: bank credit to the private sector, the real interest rate and ROE. On the other hand, the results of the econometric model showed that there is a statistically significant indirect correlation between the dependent variable and the determinants of bank credit to government and public enterprises and non-performing loans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Revista de Ciencias Sociales (13159518) is the property of Revista de Ciencias Sociales de la Universidad del Zulia Venezuela and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Sociología del Trabajo is the property of Universidad Complutense de Madrid and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks in Bangladesh using the sign restriction approach in a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. We identify a generic business cycle shock to deal with the endogenous movement of fiscal variables along with a monetary policy shock to absorb the variations due to those shocks. Both unanticipated and anticipated fiscal shocks, that is, government expenditure and revenue shocks, are also identified by minimal sign restrictions. In identifying those shocks, we do not impose any restrictions on the sign of the key variable of interest. We find that private investment and consumption significantly increase due to expansionary government expenditure shock. Such an increase in private consumption is consistent with neo-Keynesian prediction. The fall in output due to the tax increase shock is highly robust. Private consumption also decreases due to a tax increase, although investment does not. The results suggest that fiscal policy, especially tax policy, is more effective than monetary policy in stabilizing output. Moreover, the fiscal authority could increase government expenditure without hurting private investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper mainly investigates the predictability of the global tail risk to oil return. • World Fear can provide incremental content than most of the given macro variables to predict oil returns. • The analysis based on business cycles highlights the World Fear's satisfactory performances during recessions. • The multi-period forecasts further confirm the satisfactory predictability of the World Fear for oil return. This paper mainly investigates whether the global tail risk, World Fear of Hollstein et al. (2019), contains valuable information for oil return prediction. With economic constraint approaches, World Fear can provide incremental content compared to most of the given macro variables to predict oil returns. The analysis based on business cycles highlights the World Fear's satisfactory performances during recessions. In addition, the multi-period forecasts further confirm the satisfactory predictability of the World Fear for oil return. Our results shed new insights for the oil market from the perspective of global tail risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the traditional objectives of capital controls were to address macroeconomic stability risks, a new "externalities view" has emerged prescribing their use to contain financial stability risks. In this context, our understanding of whether capital controls are used in practice to mitigate macroeconomic or financial stability remains limited. Using a novel database on high-frequency capital account regulations for 47 advanced and emerging economies from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically assesses this question. Our main findings are that: (a) in emerging markets there is a strong association of capital controls on inflows to mitigate risks to macro stability but not financial stability risks; (b) in advanced economies there is a robust association between capital controls on inflows to lean against the buildup of financial stability but not macro stability risks; (c) banking sector flows, but not aggregate capital flows, are strongly associated with tightening capital controls on inflows in emerging markets; and (d) pooling advanced and emerging economies attenuates regression estimates and would lead to concluding that capital controls have weak association with both financial and macro stability motives. Our results can be rationalized by the greater capital flows, more volatile business cycles and stronger interaction between business and financial cycles in emerging markets, and the deeper asset markets found in advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We introduce a model to describe the mechanism which causes non-resonating cycles to persist and resonating cycles to cease. • The model is inspired by Austrian business cycle theory and satisfies the conditions of Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser theory. • We find that, for cyclical motions to remain stable, the ratios of their cycle lengths should be sufficiently irrational. • De Groot et al. (2021) found the ratios between cycle lengths in GDP in 25 countries to be close to the golden ratio. • This suggests that the detected cycles in the latter study are non-resonating and remain stable in the long run. Schumpeter (1939) conjectured that there exist many, or perhaps even an indefinite number of subcycles in an economy, but that in the long run only a few subcycles remain stable and persist, whereas others become unstable and cease. In this paper, we build upon this idea, hypothesizing that, for subcycles to persist in a multiple cycle structure, their cyclical lengths should not be close multiples. We formalize our theory using a mathematical model for investment behavior, inspired by Austrian business cycle theory. The model is quasi-periodic and satisfies the conditions of Kolmogorov–Arnold–Moser theory. This enables us to describe the dynamic properties of the model. We conclude that the cycles of the system should be non-resonant for the motions to remain stable in the long run. That is, that the ratios of the cycle lengths should be sufficiently irrational. Coupling this with the recent empirical findings of De Groot et al. (2021), who measured the ratios between subcyle lengths in GDP in 25 OECD countries and found them to be close to the golden ratio φ , we conclude that the detected cycles therein are non-resonant and remain stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to the current research by identifying the cyclical and asymmetrical impact of innovation in environmental-related technologies on carbon dioxide emissions in BRICS economies, as well as control variables such as fossil fuels, export taxes, household consumption expenditures, and exports, for the period 1990(Q1)-2016 (Q4). Following are some of the key findings. First, the data analysis indicated a significant long-term positive link between negative shocks to innovation in environmental-related technologies and carbon dioxide emissions during the economic downturn. Second, positive shocks to innovation in environmental-related technologies minimize carbon dioxide emissions during the economic upturn. Third, the relationship between innovation shocks in environmental-related technologies and carbon dioxide emissions was counter-cyclical during business cycles. Fourth, impact of positive shocks to innovation in environmental-related technologies on carbon dioxide emissions was more than the impact of negative shocks to innovation in environmental-related technologies on carbon dioxide emissions. Fifth, increasing the export tax serve as an effective measure to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. Sixth, an increase in exports, use of fossil fuels, and household consumption expenditures contributed to the carbon dioxide emissions. Based on estimated results, the paper suggests policy implications for policymakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. • Positive shocks to IERTs decrease CO 2 emissions. • Negative shocks to IERTs increase CO 2 emissions. • An Increase in export tax leads to decrease CO 2 emissions. • An increase in fossil fuel consumption was positively linked with CO 2 emissions. • An increase in household consumption expenditure increases CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study revisits the empirical relationship between output volatility and output for twelve OECD countries. An extended AR-EGARCH-M model was used to identify the structural break, asymmetric effect, jump effect and spillover effect. In addition to the classical logarithmic definition of growth, the study uses the Hodrick-Prescott filter to compute the deviations from the long-term trend as the output gap. The empirical results show that (i) the effect of output volatility on output differs across countries under the same model specifications; and (ii) while the in-mean effect and spillover effect are stronger for the output gap-based models, the jump effect has a major effect on output volatility under the classical logarithmic definition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty is one of the most important issues for economic actors. Uncertainty about tax, expenditure and debt policy has an impact on the economy. The central question in this study asks how fiscal policy uncertainty affects the Turkish economy. First, we quantify Turkey’s fiscal policy uncertainty index based on volatility measurements between 1998Q1 and 2020Q4. This index represents major fiscal, economic and political incidents in Turkey. Next, we analyse the effects of fiscal policy uncertainty on the Turkish economy using a VAR model. Our study finds that fiscal policy uncertainty shocks have detrimental and long-lasting effects on the Turkish economy. The results indicated that a positive standard deviation shock in fiscal policy uncertainty decreases the confidence, output and consumption. The findings of thisstudy reveal critical fiscal policy implications for decision-makers. These findings imply that reducing Turkey’s fiscal policy uncertainty is a critical policy priority for the business cycle fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study estimates the size of the gender pay gap (GPG) for the Czech Republic in the years 2006-2017 using data from the EU-SILC survey. The size of the GPG (and the related variables) remains relatively time-invariant with a statistically weak relation to the business cycle. Using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we found out that the unexplained part of the GPG amounts to 50% of the whole GPG (on average) and only one third of the GPG is caused by an endowment effect or an interaction between the endowment effect and the coefficient effect. Selection bias plays a statistically insignificant role in terms of the GPG formation and explanation. Parenthood is the most important driver of the GPG. For parents, the GPG is about 30 percentage points higher than the one for non-parents. Women are able to narrow the GPG created by the effect of motherhood and reach original unexplained levels of approximately 15% after reaching the age of 50 and higher. Besides parenthood, there is no other demographic characteristic that has any substantial impact on the formation and persistence of the GPG. The GPG is most pronounced for the lowest- and the highest-earning quantiles, indicating the existence of a glass ceiling and a sticky floor on the Czech labour market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]