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• A mathematical model is developed for COVID-19 pandemic. • The parameters of the model are estimated using basis functions. • It's possible to fit the model to real data by time-varying estimation of parameters. • The time-varying parameters result in COVID-19 Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) model. • The LPV model is useful for stability assessment and controller design. Current outbreaks of the COIVD-19 pandemic demonstrate a global threat. In this paper, a conceptual model is developed for the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the people in society are divided into Susceptible, Exposed, Minor infected (Those who need to be quarantined at home), Hospitalized (Those who are in need of hospitalization), Intensive infected (ventilator-in-need infected), Recovered and Deceased. In this paper, first, the model that is briefly called SEMHIRD for a sample country (Italy as an example) is considered. Then, exploiting the real data of the country, the parameters of the model are obtained by assuming some basis functions on the collected data and solving linear least square problems in each window of data to estimate the time-varying parameters of the model. Thus, the parameters are updated every few days, and the system behavior is modeled according to the changes in the parameters. Then, the Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) Model of COVID19 is derived, and its stability analysis is presented. In the end, the influence of different levels of social distancing and quarantine on the variation of severely infected and hospitalized people is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has constrained world governments to impose measures of restraint and social distancing which also involves coastal areas. One of the most affected activities is tourism due to travel restrictions imposed by precautionary measures. This is also reflected in the recreative use of the coastal strip. Consequently, beaches and coastal stretches of small municipalities can potentially become contagious outbreaks of COVID-19 if adequate control and management measures are not promptly implemented. During the 20th century, several factors, both natural and human induced, caused alterations to coastal processes and consequently to the services they were providing. Coastal environments are very vulnerable and sensitive to change. This raises the need for careful assessment prior to any intervention or strategy involving the coastal system. Several literature studies have been focused both in the past and in recent years on examining the main factors affecting coastal vulnerability highlighting critical issues and shortcomings. The present paper, addressing all critical issues from literature review, illustrates a consistent methodology to support coastal management which combines both physical and socio-economic aspects and provides for the quantification of two different coastal vulnerability indices. The approach adopted has led to a distinction of different coastal peculiarities and a mapping of risk levels providing, in addition, the basis for the implementation of strategies risks related to COVID-19. The methodology proposed can be a useful reference in several areas, in demonstrating its effectiveness it has been applied with respect to a coastal area in southern Italy. • Consistent procedure to assess coastal vulnerability based on some key parameters, both physical and socio-economic. • Combine a geographic information system (GIS) with an analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to develop vulnerability maps. • Collecting parameters to define a complete coastal framework able to manage pandemic risks such as the current COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]