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(Anesth Analg. 2018;126:1590–1597)At the Beilinson Campus of the Rabin Medical Center in Petach Tikva, Israel, a proportion of women who intend to deliver with labor epidural analgesia (LEA) are often unable to receive it due to a lack of available nursing staff, labor rooms, or anesthesiologists at the time of request. As there is no study to date that has specifically examined the relationship between birth plan, satisfaction with LEA, and development of postpartum depression (PPD), the authors of the present study examined the impact of delivering without analgesia when such was not the intended plan. They hypothesized that the PPD rate at 6 weeks would be highest among women who intended to deliver with LEA but who actually delivered without.

Treatment protocols for the chemotherapy of malaria are usually acquired through clinical trials. Once pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic information becomes available, it is possible to use mathematical modelling for testing these protocols and, possibly, for improving them. In this report the case of monotherapy by mefloquine is analysed. Published pharmacokinetic and clinical results are used to derive the essential model parameters such as kill rate, parasite growth rates, drug sensitivity and the pharmacokinetic parameters. Good agreement is obtained between clinical results and simulated parasite numbers using the derived parameters. It is demonstrated that the 2 exponential kinetics of mefloquine elimination can be reduced to an operational single exponent for pharmacodynamic modelling by educated choice of sampling times of plasma drug concentration. It is deduced that a second drug dose, at a properly chosen time-interval, results in radical cure even when resistant parasites are present and at maximal parasite growth rates such as those found in non-immune patients. Finally, a table is provided for guiding the optimal choice of dosing intervals under different values of population pharmacokinetics, drug resistance and individual immunity parameters.

Clinical data on the use of artesunate combined with mefloquine in a variety of treatment regimens and parasite loads in Thailand were modelled on the basis of experimentally determined pharmacokinetic data. The model assumed no pharmacodynamic interaction between artesunate and mefloquine, but that the parasites were already resistant to mefloquine. Predictions of the model accorded well with the data. In particular, in accordance with clinical observations, the model showed that monotherapy with either drug failed to cure at moderate parasitaemia, yet such patients could be treated effectively with the combination of 3 days of artesunate + mefloquine. For high levels of parasitaemia, 5 days of artesunate+mefloquine were needed. Simulations were also performed for situations of lower resistance to mefloquine and for the immune human populations found in Africa. The importance of mathematical modelling of combination therapy is borne out by this study and suggests its wider application for other drug combinations.

Although artesunate, one of the potent derivatives of the qinghaosu family of drugs for treating falciparum malaria, is already in use in the field, its therapeutic protocol has only been developed empirically by hit-or-miss. A pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK–PD) model, required for creating such a protocol, is not straightforward. Artesunate presents extremely fast pharmacokinetics. As a result the stage specificity of its action must be treated explicitly. Also, use of standard PK–PD modelling fails to explain the clinical results. Our PK–PD modelling of its activity leads us to the postulation of the existence of a novel effect: a small fraction of the parasites, as a result of chemotherapeutic pressure, become cytostatic, or ‘dormant’. At this stage, the parasite cycle is halted, making them unsusceptible to further dosing until wakening. This slows down the antimalarial activity of the drug, entailing either many frequent doses or an extended period of treatment and surveillance. Based on our modelling, we suggest a method for deciding on rational models of chemotherapy against falciparum malaria.

We have attempted to provide a rational basis for improving the protocols for chemotherapy of malaria. We model the regression of parasitaemia by Plasmodium falciparum, its subsequent elimination from the body, or recrudescence, for populations of cells treated with chloroquine. Our model assumes that the drug forms a complex with some receptor in the parasite and that parasites possessing this complex die at a defined rate. We take into account that chloroquine is eliminated exponentially from the body. We show how the parameters of the model can be derived from observations in the field. The model correctly predicts the effects of drug dose, degree of initial parasitaemia, rate of parasite multiplication and degree of drug resistance to chloroquine chemotherapy. The level of parasitaemia will reduce to a minimum at sufficiently high concentrations of chloroquine, but only if the parasitaemia is reduced to below that of 1 parasite per infected person will a cure of malaria be obtained. Otherwise, recrudescence will, sooner or later, occur. We show that, even for drug-resistant malaria, if 2 doses of chloroquine are given to a patient with an interval of some 10 days between them, parasites can be eliminated from the body without toxic levels of chloroquine being reached.