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China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 and an emission peak before 2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal for power generation and steelmaking. Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded domestic coal production and transport infrastructure. We analyze effects of both these pressures on Chinese coal imports, with a purpose-built model of China’s coal sector with installation-level detail, representing roughly a 300-fold increase in granularity versus earlier models. We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affects seaborne imports much more strongly than domestic supply. Recent expansions of rail and port capacities, which reduce the costs of getting domestic coal to southern coastal provinces, will further reduce the demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonization on coal imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall because of the expanded supply of cheap and high-quality coking coal from neighboring Mongolia.

To mark the tenth anniversary of Nature Climate Change, we asked a selection of researchers across the broad range of climate change disciplines to share their thoughts on notable developments of the past decade, as well as their hopes and expectations for the coming years of discovery.

Phasing out coal requires expanding the notion of a ‘just transition’ and a roadmap that specifies the sequence of coal plant retirement, the appropriate policy instruments as well as ways to include key stakeholders in the process.

We provide evidence that lowering the cost of accessing flood risk information increases public understanding of the risk of flood events. We exploit a pair of events to generate this conclusion: in July 2008, the Brisbane City Council released property level flood risk reports online, and, in 2011, Brisbane suffered a flood event. Using a longitudinal property sales database and a difference in difference estimator, we refute existing results by finding that prices for at-risk properties fell by 2.5% after the release online of the flood-risk information. Second, after the flood event there was no change in value for at-risk properties that were not flooded in the 2011 event. This suggests that the flood event provided no new information about these properties, and therefore provides evidence that the flood-risk information had already been incorporated into property prices. We also investigate how the details of provided information matter. Specifically, we show that while different flood zones influence property prices, the height of expected floods does not.

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.

In this paper we propose a market mechanism for regulated exit of highly emissions intensive power stations from the electricity grid. The starting point is that there is surplus capacity in coal fired power generation in Australia. In the absence of a carbon price signal, black coal generation capacity may leave the market instead of high emitting brown coal power stations. We lay out options for a mechanism of regulated power station closure using a market mechanism. Plants bid competitively over the payment they require for closure, the regulator chooses the most cost effective bid, and payment for closure is made by the remaining power stations in proportion to their carbon dioxide emissions. This could overcome adverse incentive effects for plants to stay in operation in anticipation of payment for closure and solve the political difficulties and problems of information asymmetry that plague government payments for closure and direct regulation for exit. We explore the issues theoretically and provide empirical illustrations. These suggest that closure of a brown coal fired power station in Australia could yield emissions savings at costs that are lower than the social benefits. The analysis in this paper is applicable to other countries.

China recently announced its national emissions trading scheme, advancing market-based approaches to cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Its evolution over coming years will determine whether it becomes an effective part of China’s portfolio of climate policies.

We review the literature on the economics of climate change with a focus on the evolution of the literature from some of the early classic papers to the latest contributions. We divide the paper into three main sections: trends in greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation, and adaptation.

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

AbstractThe agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely.The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM's share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.

Energy is needed for economic growth, and access to cheap, reliable energy is an essential development objective. Historically most incremental energy demand has been met through fossil fuels; however, in future that energy will have to be low carbon and ultimately zero‐carbon. Decarbonization can and needs to happen at varying speeds in all countries, depending on national circumstances. This article reviews the implications of a transition to low‐carbon energy on economic growth and development in current low‐income countries. It sets out empirical findings about trajectories for energy intensity and emissions intensity of economic growth; explores pathways to accelerate decarbonization; reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on economic costs and co‐benefits of energy decarbonization; and assesses analytical approaches. It discusses the opportunities that might arise in terms of a cleaner, more dynamic and more sustainable growth model, and the options for developing countries to implement a less‐carbon intensive model of economic development. WIREs Clim Change2018, 9:e495. doi: 10.1002/wcc.495 This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate ChangeClimate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development Historically most incremental energy demand has been met through fossil fuels; however, in future that energy will have to be low carbon and ultimately zero carbon. Decarbonization can and needs to happen at varying speeds in all countries, depending on national circumstances.

The article focuses on a dissenting minority report calling for stronger measures to reduce emissions issued by David Karoly and Clive Hamilton of the Climate Change Authority of Australia, as of October 2016. Topics include a carbon budget through to 2050 recommended by Climate Change Authority in 2014; and views of researchers regarding the report including views of professor Frank Jotzo of The Australian National University; and views of Ben Hankamer of University of Queensland.

A letter to the editor is presented in response to an article on Australia's proposed carbon tax, published in the July 16, 2011 issue.