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Initiatives pursuing sustainability transitions of small-scale communities offer rich learning opportunities on: to what extent they are making progress toward sustainability; what success depends on; and how success can be replicated in other communities. Yet, there is little empirical research addressing these questions. This article presents a cross-case analysis of sustainability transition initiatives in four small U.K. communities that tentatively identifies factors influencing transition outcomes as well as strategies to improve transition effectiveness. Our findings suggest a wide range of factors to be important including socio-demographics, community governance, community capacity, organization and management, resources, and mobilization. The article demonstrates how empirical studies of this nature can successively build a broad knowledge base to support effective community transition practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional educational settings struggle with enabling students to acquire competence in collectively solving sustainability problems. Such competence is best conveyed in real-world learning settings. Solution-oriented sustainability learning (SOSL) programs create and utilize such settings. Here, students directly contribute to sustainability-oriented transformations of cities, businesses, or government organizations, while building their proficiency in sustainability problem-solving. SOSL programs, however, often face obstacles such as lack of faculty capacity and insufficient resources. This article reports on experiences from SOSL courses in Phoenix, as part of the SOSL program in the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University. Addressing accomplishments and challenges, we offer constructive lessons to other universities on how to start or enhance SOSL courses and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater scarcity is a pivotal challenge for many cities, as resources are threatened by increasing demand, water quality concerns, and climate change impacts. Current governance approaches appear unable to respond effectively to these challenges, prompting calls for transitions to sustainable water governance. Scenarios are often used to explore narrow aspects of water systems, which is not a full realization of their potential to guide transitions in water governance. A transition-oriented approach to scenario construction needs to generate scenarios that (i) are governance focused, including the institutions, actors, and actions that will guide transitions; (ii) are normative, incorporating the values and preferences of those responsible for carrying out transition actions; (iii) are presented as a small set of distinct and identifiable scenarios, which stakeholders can comprehend and compare; and (iv) allow for interfacing with dynamic models to demonstrate the systemic impacts of different approaches to water governance. This research utilizes a participatory, mixed-method approach, including survey, scenario analysis, and simulation modeling to construct distinct, coherent, plausible, and normative governance scenarios of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona in 2030. Four scenarios provide residents and policy makers with distinct options for future water governance regimes, indicating the future impacts of normative values and preferences that might or might not be aligned with ideas of sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nanotechnology has driven speculations and projections of all colors and shapes. However, there is a paucity of future scenarios that explore distinct nanotechnology innovation and governance models . This study asks: What could the dominant innovation models look like in the future, and, in contrast, what could alternative ones look like? And how conducive are those different models to mitigating sustainability challenges and improving quality of life? To make the exploration tangible, this study focuses on nanotechnology innovation in an urban region (Phoenix, Arizona). The study uses a mixed methods approach, linking intuitive and analytical scenario construction, to allow for creativity while ensuring analytical rigor. Findings suggest four different models of nanotechnology innovation and governance affect sustainability challenges quite differently. Market-oriented and closed collaboration amplify the lack of social cohesion, result in low-wage service sector jobs, and intensify resource extraction rates. Alternatively, social entrepreneurship and open-source innovation are more conducive to addressing sustainability challenges and improving quality of life, in particular in urban areas. The study concludes that the way a society innovates and governs its emerging technologies is decisive for the way those technologies work in favor of, or against comprehensive public interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios that portray alternative governance regimes may help support positive change in regions that face persistent water problems. Here, we explore this proposition using the case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica - a region that faces water conflicts and climate change impacts. We developed five alternative scenarios using a formative and participatory approach with system, consistency, and diversity analyses, and visualization. In one scenario, water conflicts surfaced due to opaque governance not accounting for communities that opposed suspect alliances of agencies and developers. In another, challenging contexts overwhelmed fragmented governance causing dissent; which contrasted with another scenario where engaged and vertically accountable governance schemes fit the unique dry tropical regional context and collectively mitigate problems. Governance though, in a return to historical precedent, could alternatively function through top-down schemes to safeguard rural lifestyles; or, operate minimalist schemes that fill only technical roles. The scenario building process facilitated diverse stakeholders to collaboratively explore and articulate alternative water governance schemes. The practical value of the scenarios, however, we found to depend on efforts before and after the study and the successful integration of the scenarios with those efforts. Previous water governance research in the region facilitated partnerships, trust, and active participation in the scenario building process. Timely follow-up demonstrated the real-time application of the scenarios as reference points to help craft strategies that aim to transition current governance toward sustainable alternatives. Governance scenarios, if integrated with a broader transformational planning process, can be a constructive step toward articulating and implementing sustainable water governance schemes. In Guanacaste they helped revitalize coordination and encouraged experimentation through new water governance efforts in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Transition Towns and other types of small-scale community sustainability initiatives have greatly increased over the past decade. [•] Though successful in number it is unclear if and how initiatives are effective at driving communities toward sustainability. [•] We propose an evaluative framework to guide identification of success factors with respect to sustainability outcomes. [•] We identify success factors including governance, management and partnerships in a case study of Ashton Hayes. [•] The framework facilitates knowledge accumulation and synthesis across cases to support effective practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the building and construction sector contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, there is great demand for resource- and energy-efficient construction materials. Manufactured nanotechnology products (MNPs) are expected to realize resource and energy efficiency through performance improvements in the strength, lightness and insulating properties of construction materials. However, the actual adoption of MNPs has lagged. This article examines how the construction sector in the United States assesses MNPs for adoption. Through patent analysis and interviews, we gauge the supply of MNPs and identify actors' roles in technology adoption. Results indicate that awareness of MNPs is more extensive than anticipated. Yet, MNP adoption is limited by a multi-component technology assessment process focused primarily on the technology's applicability to project-based outcomes. We conclude that barriers to MNP adoption can be overcome through intermediary activities such as product certification, comprehensive technology assessments, and "real-world" demonstrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present study employs a real-time, practice-oriented, and place-based approach to dissect the process of nanotechnology innovation in support of novel governance schemes. The research question is: What are actors specifically doing in the process of nanotechnology innovation in a metropolitan area, and what are enabling and constraining drivers that could be leveraged for novel governance approaches? The study presents results from 45 interviews and a synthesis workshop with actors from academia, industry, government, and the civil society in Phoenix. Results show that actors follow preconceived mental models of innovation with the primary objective to deploy profitable commercial or military products. The dominant network actors are academics, industry, and government funding agencies. The network is divided along product-based sectors with few cross-sector linkages. Considerable governmental support for entrepreneurs and for academic research via the National Nanotechnology Initiative enables nanotechnology innovation in the early stages. Market failures and corporate barriers, however, constrain the value proposition in later phases. There is novelty in the nanotechnology products; yet, little attention is paid to consumer input, adverse effects, or broader public value generation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community''s ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Local in its causes and global in its impacts, climate change still poses an unresolved challenge for scientists, politicians, entrepreneurs, and citizens. Climate change research is largely global in focus, aims at enhanced understanding, and is driven by experts, all of which seem to be insufficient to anchor climate change action in regional and local contexts. We present results from a participatory scenario study conducted in collaboration with the municipality of Delta in SW British Columbia, Canada. This study applies a participatory capacity building approach for climate change action at the local level where the sources of emissions and the mechanisms of adaptation reside and where climate change is meaningful to decision-makers and stakeholders alike. The multi-scale scenario approach consists of synthesizing global climate change scenarios, downscaling them to the regional and local level, and finally visualizing alternative climate scenarios out to 2100 in 3D views of familiar, local places. We critically discuss the scenarios produced and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach applied. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The economic and social promises of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, are assumed to be outstanding due to radical innovative features of materials, products and services. However, preliminary studies indicate that these very same features, e.g. high chemical reactivity, could entail adverse impacts on human health and the environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of sustainable nanotechnology governance. The required anticipatory knowledge supporting these efforts seems so far to lack a sound methodological basis as well as an integrated perspective on nanotechnological applications. We present a scenario study on possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland (reference year 2020). The study employed a formalized and functional scenario methodology, featuring system analysis, consistency analysis and transdisciplinary collaboration. The results indicate five different future constellations of contextual aspects, such as public awareness, profit potential and legal regulations, which are assumed to consistently correspond to five distinct market situations for nanotechnological applications. Going beyond the specific nanotechnology scenarios, the article argues for a rigorous scenario methodology as a valuable tool for the sustainable governance of emerging technologies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The IPCC''s emissions scenarios form the basis for the majority of long-term climate change projections, including those of the current Fourth Assessment Report. The main characteristics of the IPCC''s three scenario series – published in 1990, 1992 and 2000 – have changed significantly over time: titles, classification, assumptions and methods have all changed. This article analyses the evolution of the structure, description, process development and context of the IPCC''s emissions scenarios, identifying the most important changes and their scientific and political causes. These changes are evaluated against the criteria of saliency, credibility and legitimacy. Our analysis indicates, first, enhanced credibility through an improved scenario construction methodology (multiple baseline scenarios; storylines), even though these achievements are diluted by particularities of the scenario approach used. Second, a reduced saliency through absence of titles, an inappropriate classification and the relatively high number of baseline scenarios, limits and weakens their wider applicability. These latter trends were due in part to concessions made to the intergovernmental nature of the construction process (trade-offs). The article concludes by proposing for the future the employment of a more formal qualitative construction approach as well as revisions to scenario labelling and classification practices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Emerging technologies, such as nanotechnology, feature considerable uncertainty regarding benefits that can be realized and unwanted side effects that ought to be avoided. Sustainable governance of emerging technologies addresses this issue from an integrated societal perspective that proposes collaboration among agents from science, business, government, and the public during the process of technological innovation and diffusion. In this paper, we present agent network analysis as a method to identify critical constellations in the agent network against the normative background of sustainable governance. Results from a transdisciplinary study on the agent network of nanotechnology in Switzerland reveal, among others, missing key agents, non-fulfillment of required functions, non-availability of required knowledge, and deviations between self- and cross-perception. The study contributes to methodological discussions on the formation of agent networks in science, technology, and public policy studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The sound development of city-regions presents a major planning challenge, as these regions are and will be the living spaces for the majority of the population. Therefore, a key question is how city-regions can be managed so that they develop in a sustainable way. Although Environmental Impact Assessment, Integrated Assessment, and other currently used approaches provide significant inputs for managing transition-processes towards sustainability, they must be extended to respond to three major deficiencies, which are (i) using lists of isolated indicators, (ii) not performing a consistency analysis of the targets to be achieved, and (iii) not utilizing the potential of transdisciplinary approaches. The authors present an approach to constructing Sustainability Solution Spaces for Decision-Making (SSP). This approach fulfils the systemic, normative, and procedural requirements of an appropriate sustainability assessment as elaborated in the technical literature. It provides a consistent set of targets considering the systemic relations among the indicators representing the city-region. This gives the decision-makers a concise guideline for sustainable decisions and makes them aware of the synergistic and contradictory effects of their decisions. The modular tool is first depicted as a general procedure and later differentiated into two transdisciplinary approaches, a participatory and an expert approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Decision-visualization facilities, compared across more than 50 attributes, share similar experiences, practices, and challenges. • The study offers empirically informed recommendations to advance decision-visualization environments. • Advancements focus on adaptive infrastructure and transformative human-computer interaction. • DVEs effectively provide settings for exploration and experimentation, rather than only explanation approaches. • An active network of DVEs could constitute a productive learning community. Semi-immersive visualization facilities support research, planning, and decision-making at the science-society-policy interface. Decision theaters, visualization studios, and similar installations—here referred to as Decision-Visualization Environments (DVEs)—facilitate human-computer-content interactions to explore climate change impacts, resource management practices, and urban design solutions. This comparative study analyzes the current practices of seven DVE facilities from around the world based on expert interviews, site visits, and document review. We found common practices across 53 attributes concerning the planning, stakeholder involvement, and realization of DVE activities. DVEs need good facilitation and purposeful combination to unlock their full potential. An active network of DVEs could constitute a productive learning community to pool and coordinate activities and share insights. Based on our findings, we deduce recommendations on how to improve the design of existing DVEs, to create new DVEs, as well as to plan DVE projects and events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An experimental water-independent house in Tucson, Arizona demonstrates feasibility. • Transfer and scaling studies assess potential for other Colorado River Basin cities. • The potential is low in each city, though for contextually differing reasons. • With suggested adaptations and further experimentation potential can be improved. • Transfer and scaling studies are needed for sustainability experiment up-take. Conventional water management systems seem increasingly unable to resolve the challenges of over-allocation, climate change, and urban growth facing cities such as those in the Colorado River Basin. Transformational urban water solutions matching the scale and urgency of the challenges are needed. An experimental water-independent house in Tucson, Arizona demonstrates the feasibility of this solution in a limited setting. Through qualitative research with local stakeholders, we assessed the potential for this solution to be transferred to and scaled in Phoenix, Denver, and Las Vegas. Results show the potential is low for all three cities but for differing physical, cultural, financial, institutional, and other reasons, and that significant systemic effects could undermine the solution if implemented at scale. Yet, insights from our analysis allowed us to recommend various adaptations, most notably dropping full water independence. The adapted solution has significantly improved potential for Phoenix, including reduced systemic risk, somewhat improved for Denver, but still very low for Las Vegas. Overall, the research suggests direction for further experimentation. Apart from its practical relevance, this research also offers insights into the emerging field of solution transferability and scalability studies in sustainability science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]