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Limiting the rise in global mean temperatures relies on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and on the removal of CO2by land carbon sinks. China is currently the single largest emitter of CO2, responsible for approximately 27 per cent (2.67 petagrams of carbon per year) of global fossil fuel emissions in 20171. Understanding of Chinese land biosphere fluxes has been hampered by sparse data coverage2–4, which has resulted in a wide range of a posteriori estimates of flux. Here we present recently available data on the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2, measured from six sites across China during 2009 to 2016. Using these data, we estimate a mean Chinese land biosphere sink of -1.11 ± 0.38 petagrams of carbon per year during 2010 to 2016, equivalent to about 45 per cent of our estimate of annual Chinese anthropogenic emissions over that period. Our estimate reflects a previously underestimated land carbon sink over southwest China (Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces) throughout the year, and over northeast China (especially Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces) during summer months. These provinces have established a pattern of rapid afforestation of progressively larger regions5,6, with provincial forest areas increasing by between 0.04 million and 0.44 million hectares per year over the past 10 to 15 years. These large-scale changes reflect the expansion of fast-growing plantation forests that contribute to timber exports and the domestic production of paper7. Space-borne observations of vegetation greenness show a large increase with time over this study period, supporting the timing and increase in the land carbon sink over these afforestation regions.

Background: Three-North Afforestation Program (TNAP) in China is the largest ecological restoration project on Earth (ongoing from 1978 to 2050), harboring a huge area of newly planted forests, which provides a wealth of goods and ecosystem services that benefit society at levels ranging from region to East Asia. This project-induced carbon (C) sink has been expected to be large, but its size and location remain uncertain. Results: In this study, we investigated the changes in the C stocks of biomass, soil C and the C accumulation benefited from the ecological effects in the project areas from 1978 to 2017 within the Three-North regions (4.069 × 106km2), and evaluated its project-induced C sequestration. Using a combination of remote sensing images, field observations and national forest inventory data, we estimated a total ecosystem sink of 47.06 Tg C per year (1 Tg = 1012g) increased by the TNAP implementation. Importantly, we first found that the C sink via the ecological effects of this project could contribute to a high proportion up to 15.94%, indicating a critical role of ecological effects in shaping the distribution of C stocks in the protective forests. This finding suggests that it is necessary to explicitly consider carbon sequestration benefited from the ecological effects when estimating C sink and parameterizing C models of the restoration projects in China and globally. Conclusions: Our results update the estimates of C pools in the world's largest ecological restoration project area, demonstrating that this project has substantially contributed to mitigating the climate change.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.