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Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6 nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20 % in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41 % of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20 % to 80 % of the 30-50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol-climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s1).

Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6 nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20 % in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41 % of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20 % to 80 % of the 30-50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol-climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s1).

Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes.

The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a photochemical climatology of air parcels based on in situ measurements with the NASA DC-8 aircraft along objectively planned profiling transects through the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this paper we present and analyze a data set of 10s (2km) merged and gap-filled observations of the key reactive species driving the chemical budgets of O3 and CH4 (O3, CH4, CO, H2O, HCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, C2H6, higher alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and other organic nitrates), consisting of 146494 distinct air parcels from ATom deployments 1 through 4. Six models calculated the O3 and CH4 photochemical tendencies from this modeling data stream for ATom 1. We find that 80%-90% of the total reactivity lies in the top 50% of the parcels and 25%-35% in the top 10%, supporting previous model-only studies that tropospheric chemistry is driven by a fraction of all the air. Surprisingly, the probability densities of species and reactivities averaged on a model scale (100 km) differ only slightly from the 2km ATom 10s data, indicating that much of the heterogeneity in tropospheric chemistry can be captured with current global chemistry models. Comparing the ATom reactivities over the tropical oceans with climatological statistics from six global chemistry models, we find generally good agreement with the reactivity rates for O3 and CH4. Models distinctly underestimate O3 production below 2km relative to the mid-troposphere, and this can be traced to lower NOx levels than observed. Attaching photochemical reactivities to measurements of chemical species allows for a richer, yet more constrained-to-what-matters, set of metrics for model evaluation. This paper presents a corrected version of the paper published under the same authors and title (sans "corrected") as 10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021.

Abstract. This paper presents version 1.0 of the World Atlas ofLast Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), a global database of sea-level proxiesand samples dated to marine isotope stage 5 (∼ 80 to 130 ka).The database includes a series of datasets compiled in the framework of aspecial issue published in this journal (https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1055.html, last access: 15 December 2022). This paper collates the individual contributions (archivedin a Zenodo community at https://zenodo.org/communities/walis_database/, last access: 15 December 2022) into anopen-access, standalone database (Rovere et al., 2022,https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7348242). The release of WALIS 1.0 includescomplete documentation and scripts to download, analyze, and visualize thedata (https://alerovere.github.io/WALIS/, last access: 15 December 2022). The databasecontains 4545 sea-level proxies (e.g., marine terraces or fossil beachdeposits), 4110 dated samples (e.g., corals dated with U-series), and 280other time constraints (e.g., biostratigraphic constraints or tephralayers) interconnected with several tables containing accessory data andmetadata. By creating a centralized database of sea-level proxy data for theLast Interglacial, the WALIS database will be a valuable resource to thebroader paleoclimate community to facilitate data–model integration andintercomparisons, assessments of sea-level reconstructions between differentstudies and different regions, as well as comparisons between past sea-levelhistory and other paleoclimate proxy data.

The Alaskan Layered Pollution And Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) field experiment was a collaborative study designed to improve understanding of pollution sources and chemical processes during winter (cold climate and low-photochemical activity), to investigate indoor pollution, and to study dispersion of pollution as affected by frequent temperature inversions. A number of the research goals were motivated by questions raised by residents of Fairbanks, Alaska, where the study was held. This paper describes the measurement strategies and the conditions encountered during the January and February 2022 field experiment, and reports early examples of how the measurements addressed research goals, particularly those of interest to the residents. Outdoor air measurements showed high concentrations of particulate matter and pollutant gases including volatile organic carbon species. During pollution events, low winds and extremely stable atmospheric conditions trapped pollution below 73 m, an extremely shallow vertical scale. Tethered-balloon-based measurements intercepted plumes aloft, which were associated with power plant point sources through transport modeling. Because cold climate residents spend much of their time indoors, the study included an indoor air quality component, where measurements were made inside and outside a house to study infiltration and indoor sources. In the absence of indoor activities such as cooking and/or heating with a pellet stove, indoor particulate matter concentrations were lower than outdoors; however, cooking and pellet stove burns often caused higher indoor particulate matter concentrations than outdoors. The mass-normalized particulate matter oxidative potential, a health-relevant property measured here by the reactivity with dithiothreiol, of indoor particles varied by source, with cooking particles having less oxidative potential per mass than pellet stove particles.

Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), responsible for extreme weather conditions, are mid-latitude systems that can cause significant damage to coastal areas. While forecasting ARs beyond two weeks remains a challenge, past research suggests potential benefits may come from properly accounting for the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) through air-sea interactions. In this paper, we investigate the impact of ARs on SST over the North Pacific by analyzing 25 years of ocean reanalysis data using an SST budget equation. We show that in the region of strong ocean modification, ocean dynamics can offset over 100% of the anomalous SST warming that would otherwise arise from atmospheric forcing. Among all ocean processes, ageostrophic advection and vertical mixing (diffusion and entrainment) are the most important factors in modifying the SST tendency response. The SST tendency response to ARs varies spatially. For example, in coastal California, the driver of enhanced SST warming is the reduction in ageostrophic advection due to anomalous southerly winds. Moreover, there is a large region where the SST shows a warming response to ARs due to the overall reduction in the total clouds and subsequent increase in total incoming shortwave radiation.

Abstract: Thorough evaluations of satellite precipitation products are necessary for accurately detecting meteorological drought. A comprehensive assessment of 15 state-of-the-art precipitation products (i.e., IMERG_cal, IMERG_uncal, GSMaP-G, CPC-Global, TRMM3B42, CMORPH-CRT, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, SM2RAIN, CHIRPS, ERA5, ERA-Interim, MERRA-2, and GLDAS) is herein conducted for the period 2010–19 giving special attention to their performance in detecting meteorological drought over mainland China at 0.25° spatial resolution. The cited precipitation products are compared against China’s gridded gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product, derived from 2400 meteorological stations, and their quality is assessed at daily, seasonal, and annual precipitation time scales. Meteorological droughts in the datasets are determined by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The performance of the precipitation products for drought detection with respect to the SPEI is assessed at three time scales (1, 3, and 12 months). The results show that the GSMaP-G outperforms other satellite-based datasets in drought detection and precipitation estimation. The MERRA-2 and the ERA5 are on average closer to the CGDPA reference data than other reanalysis products for precipitation estimation and drought detection. These products capture well the spatial and temporal pattern of the SPEI in southern and eastern China having a probability of detection (POD) above 0.6 and a correlation coefficient (CC) above 0.65. CPC-Global, IMERG, and the ERA5 reanalysis product are ideal candidates for application in western China, especially in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and the Xinjiang Province. Generally, the accuracy of precipitation products for drought detection is improved with longer time scales of the SPEI (i.e., SPEI-12). This study contributes to drought-hazard detection and hydrometeorological applications of satellite precipitation products. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the quality of 15 global satellite-based, gauge-based, and reanalysis precipitation products for meteorological drought detection at 1-, 3-, and 12-month time scales. This work systematically evaluates these products’ capacity to capture precipitation occurrence and intensity in different seasons. This is followed by a comparison of the precipitation products’ performance in drought detection. This work’s findings and evaluation results will improve the ability of those who develop precipitation products in identifying error sources and further improving retrieval algorithms. This paper’s results will serve as a valuable reference for end users seeking to better understand the application of precipitation products to drought detection.

Abstract: The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

Characterizing the temporal uncertainty in palaeoclimate records is crucial for analysing past climate change, correlating climate events between records, assessing climate periodicities, identifying potential triggers and evaluating climate model simulations. The first global compilation of speleothem isotope records by the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) working group showed that age model uncertainties are not systematically reported in the published literature, and these are only available for a limited number of records (ca. 15 %, n = 107/691). To improve the usefulness of the SISAL database, we have (i) improved the database's spatio-temporal coverage and (ii) created new chronologies using seven different approaches for age- depth modelling. We have applied these alternative chronologies to the records from the first version of the SISAL database (SISALv1) and to new records compiled since the release of SISALv1. This paper documents the necessary changes in the structure of the SISAL database to accommodate the inclusion of the new age models and their uncertainties as well as the expansion of the database to include new records and the qualitycontrol measures applied. This paper also documents the age-depth model approaches used to calculate the new chronologies. The updated version of the SISAL database (SISALv2) contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age-depth models, including age-depth temporal uncertainties for 512 speleothems.

Characterizing the temporal uncertainty in palaeoclimate records is crucial for analysing past climate change, correlating climate events between records, assessing climate periodicities, identifying potential triggers and evaluating climate model simulations. The first global compilation of speleothem isotope records by the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) working group showed that age model uncertainties are not systematically reported in the published literature, and these are only available for a limited number of records (ca. 15 %, n = 107/691). To improve the usefulness of the SISAL database, we have (i) improved the database's spatio-temporal coverage and (ii) created new chronologies using seven different approaches for age- depth modelling. We have applied these alternative chronologies to the records from the first version of the SISAL database (SISALv1) and to new records compiled since the release of SISALv1. This paper documents the necessary changes in the structure of the SISAL database to accommodate the inclusion of the new age models and their uncertainties as well as the expansion of the database to include new records and the qualitycontrol measures applied. This paper also documents the age-depth model approaches used to calculate the new chronologies. The updated version of the SISAL database (SISALv2) contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age-depth models, including age-depth temporal uncertainties for 512 speleothems.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Eastern China, a populous and economically developed area, is severely affected by various meteorological disasters under the background of global climate change. In recent years, urban waterlogs caused by heavy rainfall has become a major concern threatening urban safety and socioeconomic development. This paper aimed to reveal the spatial pattern of waterlogging risk in 89 prefecture-level cities of Eastern China by a comprehensive analysis on extreme rainfall, socioeconomic exposure and urban adaptability. Hazard intensity index was calculated on 20-year return period value of maximum daily precipitation. Exposure index was based on the total urban population and local gross domestic product, while adaptability index was an integrated evaluation of drainage pipeline density, river network density and greening rate of urban area. Risk assessment was a synthesis judgment of hazard intensity index, exposure index and urban adaptability index, according to which the cities in Eastern China were classified into five risk levels. The six cities with the highest level of waterlogging risk were Shenzhen, Beijing, Maoming, Yangjiang, Shanwei and Dongguan, which indicates relatively stronger intensity of meteorological hazard, higher density of socioeconomic exposure and the weakness of urban adaptability in these cities. The high risk cities would suffer much more losses than other cities in Eastern China when hit by an extreme rainfall. This paper could provide a scientific basis for urban waterlogging risk identification and governance, as well as for technical measures development and capacity building of disaster prevention and reduction.

High-resolution precipitation field has been widely used in hydrological and meteorological modeling. This paper establishes the spatial and temporal distribution model of precipitation in Hubei Province from 2006 through 2014, based on the data of 75 meteorological stations. This paper applies a geographically and temporally weighted regression kriging (GTWRK) model to precipitation and assesses the effects of timescales and a time-weighted function on precipitation interpolation. This work’s results indicate that: (1) the optimal timescale of the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) precipitation model is daily. The fitting accuracy is improved when the timescale is converted from months and years to days. The average mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), and the root mean square error (RMSE) decrease with scaling from monthly to daily time steps by 36%, 56%, and 35%, respectively, and the same statistical indexes decrease by 13%, 15%, and 14%, respectively, when scaling from annual to daily steps; (2) the time weight function based on an exponential function improves the predictive skill of the GTWR model by 3% when compared to geographically weighted regression (GWR) using a monthly time step; and (3) the GTWRK has the highest accuracy, and improves the MAE, MRE and RMSE by 3%, 10% and 1% with respect to monthly precipitation predictions, respectively, and by 3%, 10% and 5% concerning annual precipitation predictions, respectively, compared with the GWR results.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high-impact weather events and long-term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify and track of ARs—a necessary step for analyses on gridded data sets, and objective attribution of impacts to ARs. These different methods have been developed to answer specific research questions and hence use different criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values of key variables, and time dependence). Furthermore, these methods are often employed using different reanalysis data sets, time periods, and regions of interest. The goal of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is to understand and quantify uncertainties in AR science that arise due to differences in these methods. This paper presents results for key AR-related metrics based on 20+ different AR identification and tracking methods applied to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data from January 1980 through June 2017. We show that AR frequency, duration, and seasonality exhibit a wide range of results, while the meridional distribution of these metrics along selected coastal (but not interior) transects are quite similar across methods. Furthermore, methods are grouped into criteria-based clusters, within which the range of results is reduced. AR case studies and an evaluation of individual method deviation from an all-method mean highlight advantages/disadvantages of certain approaches. For example, methods with less (more) restrictive criteria identify more (less) ARs and AR-related impacts. Finally, this paper concludes with a discussion and recommendations for those conducting AR-related research to consider.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high-impact weather events and long-term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify and track of ARs—a necessary step for analyses on gridded data sets, and objective attribution of impacts to ARs. These different methods have been developed to answer specific research questions and hence use different criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values of key variables, and time dependence). Furthermore, these methods are often employed using different reanalysis data sets, time periods, and regions of interest. The goal of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is to understand and quantify uncertainties in AR science that arise due to differences in these methods. This paper presents results for key AR-related metrics based on 20+ different AR identification and tracking methods applied to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data from January 1980 through June 2017. We show that AR frequency, duration, and seasonality exhibit a wide range of results, while the meridional distribution of these metrics along selected coastal (but not interior) transects are quite similar across methods. Furthermore, methods are grouped into criteria-based clusters, within which the range of results is reduced. AR case studies and an evaluation of individual method deviation from an all-method mean highlight advantages/disadvantages of certain approaches. For example, methods with less (more) restrictive criteria identify more (less) ARs and AR-related impacts. Finally, this paper concludes with a discussion and recommendations for those conducting AR-related research to consider.

The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation—especially extremes—from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their changes based on such gridded daily datasets are generally underestimated. In this paper, we characterize high-resolution changes in observed extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2017 for the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on in situ measurements only. Our analysis utilizes spatial statistical methods that allow us to derive gridded estimates that do not smooth extreme daily measurements and are consistent with statistics from the original station data while increasing the resulting signal-to-noise ratio. Furthermore, we use a robust statistical technique to identify significant pointwise changes in the climatology of extreme precipitation while carefully controlling the rate of false positives. We present and discuss seasonal changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation: the largest and most spatially coherent pointwise changes are in fall (SON), with approximately 33% of CONUS exhibiting significant changes (in an absolute sense). Other seasons display very few meaningful pointwise changes (in either a relative or absolute sense), illustrating the difficulty in detecting pointwise changes in extreme precipitation based on in situ measurements. While our main result involves seasonal changes, we also present and discuss annual changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation. In this paper we only seek to detect changes over time and leave attribution of the underlying causes of these changes for future work.

The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation—especially extremes—from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their changes based on such gridded daily datasets are generally underestimated. In this paper, we characterize high-resolution changes in observed extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2017 for the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on in situ measurements only. Our analysis utilizes spatial statistical methods that allow us to derive gridded estimates that do not smooth extreme daily measurements and are consistent with statistics from the original station data while increasing the resulting signal-to-noise ratio. Furthermore, we use a robust statistical technique to identify significant pointwise changes in the climatology of extreme precipitation while carefully controlling the rate of false positives. We present and discuss seasonal changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation: the largest and most spatially coherent pointwise changes are in fall (SON), with approximately 33% of CONUS exhibiting significant changes (in an absolute sense). Other seasons display very few meaningful pointwise changes (in either a relative or absolute sense), illustrating the difficulty in detecting pointwise changes in extreme precipitation based on in situ measurements. While our main result involves seasonal changes, we also present and discuss annual changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation. In this paper we only seek to detect changes over time and leave attribution of the underlying causes of these changes for future work.

Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

Gridded data products, for example interpolated daily measurements of precipitation from weather stations, are commonly used as a convenient substitute for direct observations because these products provide a spatially and temporally continuous and complete source of data. However, when the goal is to characterize climatological features of extreme precipitation over a spatial domain (e.g., a map of return values) at the native spatial scales of these phenomena, then gridded products may lead to incorrect conclusions because daily precipitation is a fractal field and hence any smoothing technique will dampen local extremes. To address this issue, we create a new “probabilistic” gridded product specifically designed to characterize the climatological properties of extreme precipitation by applying spatial statistical analysis to daily measurements of precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network over the contiguous United States. The essence of our method is to first estimate the climatology of extreme precipitation based on station data and then use a data-driven statistical approach to interpolate these estimates to a fine grid. We argue that our method yields an improved characterization of the climatology within a grid cell because the probabilistic behavior of extreme precipitation is much better behaved (i.e., smoother) than daily weather. Furthermore, the spatial smoothing innate to our approach significantly increases the signal-to-noise ratio in the estimated extreme statistics relative to an analysis without smoothing. Finally, by deriving a data-driven approach for translating extreme statistics to a spatially complete grid, the methodology outlined in this paper resolves the issue of how to properly compare station data with output from earth system models. We conclude the paper by comparing our probabilistic gridded product with a standard extreme value analysis of the Livneh gridded daily precipitation product. Our new data product is freely available on the Harvard Dataverse (https://bit.ly/2CXdnuj).

Gridded data products, for example interpolated daily measurements of precipitation from weather stations, are commonly used as a convenient substitute for direct observations because these products provide a spatially and temporally continuous and complete source of data. However, when the goal is to characterize climatological features of extreme precipitation over a spatial domain (e.g., a map of return values) at the native spatial scales of these phenomena, then gridded products may lead to incorrect conclusions because daily precipitation is a fractal field and hence any smoothing technique will dampen local extremes. To address this issue, we create a new “probabilistic” gridded product specifically designed to characterize the climatological properties of extreme precipitation by applying spatial statistical analysis to daily measurements of precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network over the contiguous United States. The essence of our method is to first estimate the climatology of extreme precipitation based on station data and then use a data-driven statistical approach to interpolate these estimates to a fine grid. We argue that our method yields an improved characterization of the climatology within a grid cell because the probabilistic behavior of extreme precipitation is much better behaved (i.e., smoother) than daily weather. Furthermore, the spatial smoothing innate to our approach significantly increases the signal-to-noise ratio in the estimated extreme statistics relative to an analysis without smoothing. Finally, by deriving a data-driven approach for translating extreme statistics to a spatially complete grid, the methodology outlined in this paper resolves the issue of how to properly compare station data with output from earth system models. We conclude the paper by comparing our probabilistic gridded product with a standard extreme value analysis of the Livneh gridded daily precipitation product. Our new data product is freely available on the Harvard Dataverse (https://bit.ly/2CXdnuj).

In general, there are no long-term meteorological or hydrological data available for karst river basins. The lack of rainfall data is a great challenge that hinders the development of hydrological models. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) based on weather satellites offer a potential method by which rainfall data in karst areas could be obtained. Furthermore, coupling QPEs with a distributed hydrological model has the potential to improve the precision of flood predictions in large karst watersheds. Estimating precipitation from remotely sensed information using an artificial neural network-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) is a type of QPE technology based on satellites that has achieved broad research results worldwide. However, only a few studies on PERSIANN-CCS QPEs have occurred in large karst basins, and the accuracy is generally poor in terms of practical applications. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling a fully physically based distributed hydrological model, i.e., the Liuxihe model, with PERSIANN-CCS QPEs for predicting floods in a large river basin, i.e., the Liujiang karst river basin, which has a watershed area of 58 270 km-2, in southern China. The model structure and function require further refinement to suit the karst basins. For instance, the sub-basins in this paper are divided into many karst hydrology response units (KHRUs) to ensure that the model structure is adequately refined for karst areas. In addition, the convergence of the underground runoff calculation method within the original Liuxihe model is changed to suit the karst water-bearing media, and the Muskingum routing method is used in the model to calculate the underground runoff in this study. Additionally, the epikarst zone, as a distinctive structure of the KHRU, is carefully considered in the model. The result of the QPEs shows that compared with the observed precipitation measured by a rain gauge, the distribution of precipitation predicted by the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs was very similar. However, the quantity of precipitation predicted by the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs was smaller. A post-processing method is proposed to revise the products of the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. The karst flood simulation results show that coupling the post-processed PERSIANN-CCS QPEs with the Liuxihe model has a better performance relative to the result based on the initial PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. Moreover, the performance of the coupled model largely improves with parameter re-optimization via the post-processed PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. The average values of the six evaluation indices change as follows: the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient increases by 14 %, the correlation coefficient increases by 15 %, the process relative error decreases by 8 %, the peak flow relative error decreases by 18 %, the water balance coefficient increases by 8 %, and the peak flow time error displays a 5 h decrease. Among these parameters, the peak flow relative error shows the greatest improvement; thus, these parameters are of page1506 the greatest concern for flood prediction. The rational flood simulation results from the coupled model provide a great practical application prospect for flood prediction in large karst river basins.

This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) and historical simulations - a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM. The North American (NA) RRM (NARRM) is developed as the high-resolution configuration of E3SMv2 with the primary goal of more explicitly addressing DOE's mission needs regarding impacts to the US energy sector facing Earth system changes. The NARRM features finer horizontal resolution grids centered over NA, consisting of 25→100¯km atmosphere and land, a 0.125 river-routing model, and 14→60¯km ocean and sea ice. By design, the computational cost of NARRM is 1/43× of the uniform low-resolution (LR) model at 100¯km but only 1/4¯10¯%-20¯% of a globally uniform high-resolution model at 25¯km. A novel hybrid time step strategy for the atmosphere is key for NARRM to achieve improved climate simulation fidelity within the high-resolution patch without sacrificing the overall global performance. The global climate, including climatology, time series, sensitivity, and feedback, is confirmed to be largely identical between NARRM and LR as quantified with typical climate metrics. Over the refined NA area, NARRM is generally superior to LR, including for precipitation and clouds over the contiguous US (CONUS), summertime marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of California, liquid and ice phase clouds near the North Pole region, extratropical cyclones, and spatial variability in land hydrological processes. The improvements over land are related to the better-resolved topography in NARRM, whereas those over ocean are attributable to the improved air-sea interactions with finer grids for both atmosphere and ocean and sea ice. Some features appear insensitive to the resolution change analyzed here, for instance the diurnal propagation of organized mesoscale convective systems over CONUS and the warm-season land-atmosphere coupling at the southern Great Plains. In summary, our study presents a realistically efficient approach to leverage the fully coupled RRM framework for a standard Earth system model release and high-resolution climate production simulations.

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change. The second contribution takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous variations in the ratio between the frequencies of extremes in the All-Hist and Nat-Hist simulations against variations in ocean temperatures.

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change. The second contribution takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous variations in the ratio between the frequencies of extremes in the All-Hist and Nat-Hist simulations against variations in ocean temperatures.

Quantification of energetic electron precipitation caused by wave-particle interactions is fundamentally important to understand the cycle of particle energization and loss of the radiation belts. One important way to determine how well the wave-particle interaction models predict losses through pitch-angle scattering into the atmospheric loss cone is the direct comparison between the ionization altitude profiles expected in the atmosphere due to the precipitating fluxes and the ionization profiles actually measured with incoherent scatter radars. This paper reports such a comparison using a forward propagation of loss-cone electron fluxes, calculated with the electron pitch angle diffusion model applied to Van Allen Probes measurements, coupled with the Boulder Electron Radiation to Ionization model, which propagates the fluxes into the atmosphere. The density profiles measured with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar operating in modes especially designed to optimize measurements in the D-region, show multiple instances of close quantitative agreement with predicted density profiles from precipitation of electrons caused by wave-particle interactions in the inner magnetosphere, alternated with intervals with large differences between observations and predictions. Several-minute long intervals of close prediction-observation approximation in the 65-93 km altitude range indicate that the whistler wave-electron interactions models are realistic and produce precipitation fluxes of electrons with energies between 10 keV and >100 keV that are consistent with observations. The alternation of close model-data agreement and poor agreement intervals indicates that the regions causing energetic electron precipitation are highly spatially localized.

Frequent inventory data of container nurseries is needed by growers to ensure proper management and marketing strategies. In this paper, inventory data are estimated from aerial images. Since there are thousands of nursery species, it is difficult to find a generic classification algorithm for all cases. In this paper, the development of classification methods was confined to three representative categories: green foliage, yellow foliage, and flowering plants. Vegetation index thresholding and the support vector machine (SVM) were used for classification. Classification accuracies greater than 97% were obtained for each case. Based on the classification results, an algorithm based on canopy area mapping was built for counting. The effects of flight altitude, container spacing, and ground cover type were evaluated. Results showed that container spacing and interaction of container spacing with ground cover type have a significant effect on counting accuracy. To mimic the practical shipping and moving process, incomplete blocks with different voids were created. Results showed that the more plants removed from the block, the higher the accuracy. The developed algorithm was tested on irregular- or regular-shaped plants and plants with and without flowers to test the stability of the algorithm, and accuracies greater than 94% were obtained.

Cities are human creations where many of the emissions causing climate change originate. Every aspect of daily life in cities, which spans buildings, transit, food, energy, and water, relies on fossil fuels that materially contribute to climate change. This paper explores the need for research to better uncover the processes driving urbanization in order to develop novel ways to mitigate climate impacts on Earth. Areas of fruitful research include better quantification of teleconnections between cities and their hinterlands and coupling those to the socio-economic drivers and organization of those relationships; the financialization of much urban policy; understanding where cities fit in the global economic order and their role in generating economic growth, and the ways in which they are also seen as leaders of sustainability and climate actions, but constrained in so-doing by the nested and tiered layers of institutions they operate within. This paper concludes by outlining ways for cities to transition toward nurturing human well-being and reducing their impacts on planetary processes resulting in the proposed new Earth epoch – the Anthropocene.

Precipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather and climate modeling. Limitations in modeling precipitation underscore the need for diagnostics and metrics to evaluate precipitation in simulations and predictions. While routine use of basic metrics is important for documenting model skill, more sophisticated diagnostics and metrics aimed at connecting model biases to their sources and revealing precipitation characteristics relevant to how model precipitation is used are critical for improving models and their uses. This paper illustrates examples of exploratory diagnostics and metrics including 1) spatiotemporal characteristics metrics such as diurnal variability, probability of extremes, duration of dry spells, spectral characteristics, and spatiotemporal coherence of precipitation; 2) process-oriented metrics based on the rainfall–moisture coupling and temperature–water vapor environments of precipitation; and 3) phenomena-based metrics focusing on precipitation associated with weather phenomena including low pressure systems, mesoscale convective systems, frontal systems, and atmospheric rivers. Together, these diagnostics and metrics delineate the multifaceted and multiscale nature of precipitation, its relations with the environments, and its generation mechanisms. The metrics are applied to historical simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models exhibit diverse skill as measured by the suite of metrics, with very few models consistently ranked as top or bottom performers compared to other models in multiple metrics. Analysis of model skill across metrics and models suggests possible relationships among subsets of metrics, motivating the need for more systematic analysis to understand model biases for informing model development.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the complex terrain of High Mountain Asia (HMA) cause significant hydrological impacts for millions of people. While ARs are often associated with precipitation extremes and can cause floods and debris flows affecting populated communities, little is known about ARs that reach as far inland as HMA. This paper characterizes AR types and investigates dynamical mechanisms associated with the development of ARs that typically affect HMA. Combined empirical orthogonal function (cEOF) analysis using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is applied to days where an AR reaches HMA. K-means cluster analysis applied to the first two principal components uncovered three subtypes of AR events with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The first subtype increases precipitation and IVT in Western HMA and is associated with a zonally oriented wave train propagating within the westerly jet waveguide. The second subtype is associated with enhanced southwesterly IVT, anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation centered on 45 ∘ E, and precipitation in Northwestern HMA. The third subtype shows anomalous precipitation in Eastern HMA and southwesterly IVT across the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variations in the frequency of HMA ARs and relationships with various teleconnection patterns show that western HMA AR subtypes are sensitive to well-known remote large-scale climate factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Siberian High. These results provide synoptic characterization of the three types of ARs that reach HMA and reveal the previously unexplored significance of their contribution to winter and spring precipitation.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-06008-z.

Photochemical smog, characterized by high concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine particles (PM2.5) in the atmosphere, has become one of the top environmental concerns in China. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), one of the key precursors of O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) (an important component of PM2.5), have a critical influence on atmospheric chemistry and subsequently affect regional and global climate. Thus, VOCs have been extensively studied in many cities and regions in China, especially in the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions where photochemical smog pollution has become increasingly worse over recent decades. This paper reviews the main studies conducted in China on the characteristics and sources of VOCs, their relationship with O3 and SOA, and their removal technology. This paper also provides an integrated literature review on the formulation and implementation of effective control strategies of VOCs and photochemical smog, as well as suggestions for future directions of VOCs study in China.

New results are presented from wind tunnel studies performed at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), which include cases with solid roadside barriers of varying heights and cases with varying distances between the line source (roadway) and a 6-m-tall barrier. The Source-to-Barrier Distance cases include seven lanes of traffic with each lane acting as an independent source of continuous emissions along a line (i.e., line source). A mixed-wake algorithm that accounts for barrier effects within a steady-state air dispersion model was updated based on the recent wind tunnel studies. To study the effects of a solid roadside barrier, varying barrier heights and varying distances between the line source and barrier were modeled with the U.S. EPA regulatory air dispersion model AERMOD (v. 21112) using the line-source option that includes an experimental barrier option (RLINEXT). The mixed-wake algorithm reproduced the shape of the vertical concentration profiles observed in the wind tunnel data, including the uniform concentration profile from the ground vertically to a height somewhat greater than the height of the barrier. The algorithm responded appropriately to changes in barrier height and source-to-barrier distance, producing greater reductions in ground-level concentrations for taller barriers and for shorter source-to-barrier distances. Additionally, a rule of thumb that approximates the effect of a downwind barrier was formulated by converting an estimated vertical dispersion into an additional travel distance. The wind tunnel results, the update to the mixed-wake algorithm, and a comparison of the two data sets are described in this paper.

The most important tobacco-specific nitrosamine found in cigarette smoke and formed in ageing smoke after cigarettes are extinguished is 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK). It is formed from nitrosation of nicotine, under particular conditions both in indoor and outdoor environments. NNK has been classified as a potent lung carcinogen which is expected to be found primarily in the particle-phase and to be stable in particulate matter. In this study tests have been carried out to show that a bisulfate-treated filter is more efficient than an untreated filter to collect both nicotine and NNK, and that the latter is stable in outdoor particulate matter. To characterize NNK in the outdoor environment, airborne samples were collected from 11 cities in USA, UK, Hong Kong and Malta with characteristics varying from low to high population densities and from urban to suburban to rural, and with desert characteristics and distinct climates. It has been shown that airborne particle + gas phase nicotine and particle-phase NNK behave in a linearly correlated manner. A seasonal analysis was carried out on a subset of data available from five sites in California, where the load of NNK in PM10 is driven by long range transport of the air masses passing over densely populated cities. In the winter season, the load of NNK in PM is higher than in summer in a statistically significant manner. The contamination of PM with NNK shows variability, but is observed at all sites. This paper highlights the potential risk of chronic exposure to NNK in particulate matter by the inhalation pathway.

Local governments around the world are formulating different ways to address climate change. However, the compounding and overlapping vulnerabilities of historically marginalized residents are commonly tackled in a fragmented manner by conventional adaptation approaches, even when justice is presented as an overarching goal of these plans. In response, we propose an intersectional pivot in climate adaptation research and practice to analyze the interconnected forms of social-environmental injustices that drive vulnerabilities in cities, paving the way for more concrete and integrated strategies of just urban adaptation and transformation. This paper brings together narrative and analytical review methodologies to inform a new conceptual framework that highlights the need to (1) tackle underlying reinforcers of racial and gender inequalities; (2) redress drivers of differential vulnerabilities; (3) take politics and ethics of care seriously; (4) adopt place-based and place-making approaches; and (5) promote cross-identity forms of activism and community resilience building. We illustrate the framework with examples of ongoing projects in Barcelona, Spain, which is an early adopter of intersectional thinking and justice-driven principles in climate action. Although many initiatives are in a pilot phase and do not all exclusively focus on climate adaptation, experiences from Barcelona do provide illustrative directionality for innovative and integrated approaches that can address multiple and intersecting social-environmental inequities.

The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investigating the effects of natural (e.g., solar variations and volcanic forcings) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic, land use, and land cover) forcings revealed that the anthropogenic factors have cause a two-fold increase in the occurrence probability of severe heat waves in central and mid-southern India during twentieth century. The spatial distribution of maximum HWMId values under natural and all forcings (including anthropogenic) indicates that in most places human activities have increases the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat waves. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the risk of heat waves is projected to increase tenfold during the twenty-first century. More than ~ 70% of the land areas in India is projected to be influenced by heat waves with magnitudes greater than 9. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between heat waves and deficits in precipitation. Results show that concurrent heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in most places in India during the twenty-first century.

One major approach to modeling dispersion of pollutants inside confined spaces describes the turbulent transport of material as the product of an eddy diffusivity and the local concentration gradient. This paper examines the applicability of this eddy diffusivity/gradient model by (1) describing the conditions under which this approach is an appropriate representation of turbulent transport, and (2) re-analysis of data provided in studies that have successfully applied gradient transport to describe tracer concentrations. We find that the solutions of the mass conservation equation based on gradient transport provide adequate descriptions of concentration measurements from two studies representative of two types of sources: instantaneous and continuous release of aerosols. We then provide the rationale for the empirical success of the gradient transport model. The solutions of the gradient transport model allow us to examine the relationship between the ventilation rate and the spatial and temporal behavior of the dose of material associated with aerosol releases in a room. We conclude with the associated implications on mitigation of exposure to aerosols such as airborne virus or bacteria.

This paper describes the first implementation of the Δx = 3.25 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) global atmosphere model and its behavior in a 40-day prescribed-sea-surface-temperature simulation (January 20 through February 28, 2020). This simulation was performed as part of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) Phase 2 model intercomparison. Effective resolution is found to be (Formula presented.) the horizontal dynamics grid resolution despite using a coarser grid for physical parameterizations. Despite this new model being in an immature and untuned state, moving to 3.25 km grid spacing solves several long-standing problems with the E3SM model. In particular, Amazon precipitation is much more realistic, the frequency of light and heavy precipitation is improved, agreement between the simulated and observed diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation is excellent, and the vertical structure of tropical convection and coastal stratocumulus look good. In addition, the new model is able to capture the frequency and structure of important weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including atmospheric rivers, and cold air outbreaks). Interestingly, this model does not get rid of the erroneous southern branch of the intertropical convergence zone nor the tendency for strongest convection to occur over the Maritime Continent rather than the West Pacific, both of which are classic climate model biases. Several other problems with the simulation are identified, underscoring the fact that this model is a work in progress.

The Nepal Ambient Monitoring and Source Testing Experiment (NAMaSTE) campaign took place in and around the Kathmandu Valley and in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of southern Nepal during April 2015. The source characterization phase targeted numerous important but undersampled (and often inefficient) combustion sources that are widespread in the developing world such as cooking with a variety of stoves and solid fuels, brick kilns, open burning of municipal solid waste (a.k.a. trash or garbage burning), crop residue burning, generators, irrigation pumps, and motorcycles. NAMaSTE produced the first, or rare, measurements of aerosol optical properties, aerosol mass, and detailed trace gas chemistry for the emissions from many of the sources. This paper reports the trace gas and aerosol measurements obtained by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, whole-air sampling (WAS), and photoacoustic extinctiometers (PAX; 405 and 870nm) based on field work with a moveable lab sampling authentic sources. The primary aerosol optical properties reported include emission factors (EFs) for scattering and absorption coefficients (EF Bscat, EF Babs, inm2kg-1 fuel burned), single scattering albedos (SSAs), and absorption Ångström exponents (AAEs). From these data we estimate black and brown carbon (BC, BrC) emission factors (gkg-1 fuel burned). The trace gas measurements provide EFs (gkg-1) for CO2, CO, CH4, selected non-methane hydrocarbons up to C10, a large suite of oxygenated organic compounds, NH3, HCN, NOx, SO2, HCl, HF, etc. (up to ∼ 80 gases in all). The emissions varied significantly by source, and light absorption by both BrC and BC was important for many sources. The AAE for dung-fuel cooking fires (4.63±0.68) was significantly higher than for wood-fuel cooking fires (3.01±0.10). Dung-fuel cooking fires also emitted high levels of NH3 (3.00±1.33gkg-1), organic acids (7.66±6.90gkg-1), and HCN (2.01±1.25gkg-1), where the latter could contribute to satellite observations of high levels of HCN in the lower stratosphere above the Asian monsoon. HCN was also emitted in significant quantities by several non-biomass burning sources. BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) were major emissions from both dung- (∼4.5gkg-1) and wood-fuel (∼1.5gkg-1) cooking fires, and a simple method to estimate indoor exposure to the many measured important air toxics is described. Biogas emerged as the cleanest cooking technology of approximately a dozen stove-fuel combinations measured. Crop residue burning produced relatively high emissions of oxygenated organic compounds (∼12gkg-1) and SO2 (2.54±1.09gkg-1). Two brick kilns co-firing different amounts of biomass with coal as the primary fuel produced contrasting results. A zigzag kiln burning mostly coal at high efficiency produced larger amounts of BC, HF, HCl, and NOx, with the halogenated emissions likely coming from the clay. The clamp kiln (with relatively more biomass fuel) produced much greater quantities of most individual organic gases, about twice as much BrC, and significantly more known and likely organic aerosol precursors. Both kilns were significant SO2 sources with their emission factors averaging 12.8±0.2gkg-1. Mixed-garbage burning produced significantly more BC (3.3±3.88gkg-1) and BTEX (∼4.5gkg-1) emissions than in previous measurements. For all fossil fuel sources, diesel burned more efficiently than gasoline but produced larger NOx and aerosol emission factors. Among the least efficient sources sampled were gasoline-fueled motorcycles during start-up and idling for which the CO EF was on the order of ∼700gkg-1 - or about 10 times that of a typical biomass fire. Minor motorcycle servicing led to minimal if any reduction in gaseous pollutants but reduced particulate emissions, as detailed in a companion paper (Jayarathne et al., 2016). A small gasoline-powered generator and an "insect repellent fire" were also among the sources with the highest emission factors for pollutants. These measurements begin to address the critical data gap for these important, undersampled sources, but due to their diversity and abundance, more work is needed.

After the presentation of 60 papers at the conference "Advancing Aerosol Dosimetry Research" (October 24-25, 2014 in Irvine, CA, USA), attendees submitted written descriptions of needed research. About 40 research needs were submitted. The suggestions fell into six broad categories: 1) Access to detailed anatomic data; 2) Access to subject-specific aerosol deposition datasets; 3) Improving current inhaled aerosol deposition models; 4) Some current experimental data needs and hot topics; 5) Linking exposure and deposition modeling to health endpoints; and 6) Developing guidelines for appropriate validation of dosimetry and risk assessment models. Summaries of suggestions are provided here as an update on research needs related to inhaled aerosol dosimetry modeling. Taken together, the recommendations support the overarching need for increased collaborations between dose modelers and those that use the models for risk assessments, aerosol medicine applications, design of toxicology experiments, and extrapolation across species. This paper is only a snapshot in time of perceived research needs from the conference attendees; it does not carry the approval of any agency or other group that plans research priorities or that funds research.

After the presentation of 60 papers at the conference "Advancing Aerosol Dosimetry Research" (October 24-25, 2014 in Irvine, CA, USA), attendees submitted written descriptions of needed research. About 40 research needs were submitted. The suggestions fell into six broad categories: 1) Access to detailed anatomic data; 2) Access to subject-specific aerosol deposition datasets; 3) Improving current inhaled aerosol deposition models; 4) Some current experimental data needs and hot topics; 5) Linking exposure and deposition modeling to health endpoints; and 6) Developing guidelines for appropriate validation of dosimetry and risk assessment models. Summaries of suggestions are provided here as an update on research needs related to inhaled aerosol dosimetry modeling. Taken together, the recommendations support the overarching need for increased collaborations between dose modelers and those that use the models for risk assessments, aerosol medicine applications, design of toxicology experiments, and extrapolation across species. This paper is only a snapshot in time of perceived research needs from the conference attendees; it does not carry the approval of any agency or other group that plans research priorities or that funds research.

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

The Nepal Ambient Monitoring and Source Testing Experiment (NAMaSTE) campaign took place in and around the Kathmandu Valley and in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of southern Nepal during April 2015. The source characterization phase targeted numerous important but undersampled (and often inefficient) combustion sources that are widespread in the developing world such as cooking with a variety of stoves and solid fuels, brick kilns, open burning of municipal solid waste (a.k.a. trash or garbage burning), crop residue burning, generators, irrigation pumps, and motorcycles. NAMaSTE produced the first, or rare, measurements of aerosol optical properties, aerosol mass, and detailed trace gas chemistry for the emissions from many of the sources. This paper reports the trace gas and aerosol measurements obtained by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, whole-air sampling (WAS), and photoacoustic extinctiometers (PAX; 405 and 870nm) based on field work with a moveable lab sampling authentic sources. The primary aerosol optical properties reported include emission factors (EFs) for scattering and absorption coefficients (EF Bscat, EF Babs, inm2kg-1 fuel burned), single scattering albedos (SSAs), and absorption Ångström exponents (AAEs). From these data we estimate black and brown carbon (BC, BrC) emission factors (gkg-1 fuel burned). The trace gas measurements provide EFs (gkg-1) for CO2, CO, CH4, selected non-methane hydrocarbons up to C10, a large suite of oxygenated organic compounds, NH3, HCN, NOx, SO2, HCl, HF, etc. (up to ∼ 80 gases in all). The emissions varied significantly by source, and light absorption by both BrC and BC was important for many sources. The AAE for dung-fuel cooking fires (4.63±0.68) was significantly higher than for wood-fuel cooking fires (3.01±0.10). Dung-fuel cooking fires also emitted high levels of NH3 (3.00±1.33gkg-1), organic acids (7.66±6.90gkg-1), and HCN (2.01±1.25gkg-1), where the latter could contribute to satellite observations of high levels of HCN in the lower stratosphere above the Asian monsoon. HCN was also emitted in significant quantities by several non-biomass burning sources. BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) were major emissions from both dung- (∼4.5gkg-1) and wood-fuel (∼1.5gkg-1) cooking fires, and a simple method to estimate indoor exposure to the many measured important air toxics is described. Biogas emerged as the cleanest cooking technology of approximately a dozen stove-fuel combinations measured. Crop residue burning produced relatively high emissions of oxygenated organic compounds (∼12gkg-1) and SO2 (2.54±1.09gkg-1). Two brick kilns co-firing different amounts of biomass with coal as the primary fuel produced contrasting results. A zigzag kiln burning mostly coal at high efficiency produced larger amounts of BC, HF, HCl, and NOx, with the halogenated emissions likely coming from the clay. The clamp kiln (with relatively more biomass fuel) produced much greater quantities of most individual organic gases, about twice as much BrC, and significantly more known and likely organic aerosol precursors. Both kilns were significant SO2 sources with their emission factors averaging 12.8±0.2gkg-1. Mixed-garbage burning produced significantly more BC (3.3±3.88gkg-1) and BTEX (∼4.5gkg-1) emissions than in previous measurements. For all fossil fuel sources, diesel burned more efficiently than gasoline but produced larger NOx and aerosol emission factors. Among the least efficient sources sampled were gasoline-fueled motorcycles during start-up and idling for which the CO EF was on the order of ∼700gkg-1 - or about 10 times that of a typical biomass fire. Minor motorcycle servicing led to minimal if any reduction in gaseous pollutants but reduced particulate emissions, as detailed in a companion paper (Jayarathne et al., 2016). A small gasoline-powered generator and an "insect repellent fire" were also among the sources with the highest emission factors for pollutants. These measurements begin to address the critical data gap for these important, undersampled sources, but due to their diversity and abundance, more work is needed.

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1% per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

The location, timing, and intermittency of precipitation in California make the state integrally reliant on winter-season snowpack accumulation to maintain its economic and agricultural livelihood. Of particular concern is that winter-season snowpack has shown a net decline across the western United States over the past 50 years, resulting in major uncertainty in water-resource management heading into the next century. Cutting-edge tools are available to help navigate and preemptively plan for these uncertainties. This paper uses a next-generation modeling technique-variable-resolution global climate modeling within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM)-at horizontal resolutions of 0.125° (14 km) and 0.25° (28 km). VR-CESM provides the means to include dynamically large-scale atmosphere-ocean drivers, to limit model bias, and to provide more accurate representations of regional topography while doing so in a more computationally efficient manner than can be achieved with conventional general circulation models. This paper validates VR-CESM at climatological and seasonal time scales for Sierra Nevada snowpack metrics by comparing them with the "Daymet," "Cal-Adapt," NARR, NCEP, and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) reanalysis datasets, the MODIS remote sensing dataset, the SNOTEL observational dataset, a standard-practice global climate model (CESM), and a regional climate model (WRF Model) dataset. Overall, given California's complex terrain and intermittent precipitation and that both of the VR-CESM simulations were only constrained by prescribed sea surface temperatures and data on sea ice extent, a 0.68 centered Pearson product-moment correlation, a negative mean SWE bias of < 7 mm, an interquartile range well within the values exhibited in the reanalysis datasets, and a mean December-February extent of snow cover that is within 7% of the expected MODIS value together make apparent the efficacy of the VR-CESM framework.

The location, timing, and intermittency of precipitation in California make the state integrally reliant on winter-season snowpack accumulation to maintain its economic and agricultural livelihood. Of particular concern is that winter-season snowpack has shown a net decline across the western United States over the past 50 years, resulting in major uncertainty in water-resource management heading into the next century. Cutting-edge tools are available to help navigate and preemptively plan for these uncertainties. This paper uses a next-generation modeling technique-variable-resolution global climate modeling within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM)-at horizontal resolutions of 0.125° (14 km) and 0.25° (28 km). VR-CESM provides the means to include dynamically large-scale atmosphere-ocean drivers, to limit model bias, and to provide more accurate representations of regional topography while doing so in a more computationally efficient manner than can be achieved with conventional general circulation models. This paper validates VR-CESM at climatological and seasonal time scales for Sierra Nevada snowpack metrics by comparing them with the "Daymet," "Cal-Adapt," NARR, NCEP, and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) reanalysis datasets, the MODIS remote sensing dataset, the SNOTEL observational dataset, a standard-practice global climate model (CESM), and a regional climate model (WRF Model) dataset. Overall, given California's complex terrain and intermittent precipitation and that both of the VR-CESM simulations were only constrained by prescribed sea surface temperatures and data on sea ice extent, a 0.68 centered Pearson product-moment correlation, a negative mean SWE bias of < 7 mm, an interquartile range well within the values exhibited in the reanalysis datasets, and a mean December-February extent of snow cover that is within 7% of the expected MODIS value together make apparent the efficacy of the VR-CESM framework.

One of the risks of geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is the leakage of injected CO2 into overlying groundwater resources, resulting in potential deterioration of the quality of the groundwater due to the increase in acidity, the release of trace metals and organic compounds, and potential changes in microbial activities. A large number of studies have been conducted to evaluate various aspects of the impact of CO2 leakage on overlying aquifers using natural analog, laboratory experiments, field tests, and numerical models. In this paper, we conducted an exhaustive review of the published work, focusing on the statistical assessment of the risk posed by the trace elements including Pb, As, Cd, Ba, and U and identifying the knowledge gaps. Key observations from the review include the following: (1) Pb, As, and U are metals of primary concern because multiple cases showed their concentration higher than maximum contaminant level (MCL) or other regulatory standards, (2) carbonate aquifers seemed more vulnerable to Pb and As contamination but not to U, (3) Cd and Ba are less a concern, only one case showed Cd/Ba concentration higher than MCL, (4) none of the field studies showed the concentrations of Pb and As higher than MCL, although one push–pull field test showed the concentration of U higher than MCL, (5) the order of aggressiveness in terms of releasing trace metals was determined to be as follows: batch experiment > column experiment > field test, and (6) there is no clear correlation between metal release and type of sediments, type of aquifer, the content of carbonate and clay. Evaluation likely has to be done on a case-by-case basis. For further operations of CO2 storage overview and screening of potential sites, we suggest the use of an eight-step environmental risk assessment procedure comprising laboratory experiment, screening modeling work, and field testing for assessing the vulnerability of the overlying aquifers to degradation from CO2 leakage from the GCS site. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a photochemical climatology of air parcels based on in situ measurements with the NASA DC-8 aircraft along objectively planned profiling transects through the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this paper we present and analyze a data set of 10s (2km) merged and gap-filled observations of the key reactive species driving the chemical budgets of O3 and CH4 (O3, CH4, CO, H2O, HCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, C2H6, higher alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, peroxyacetyl nitrate, other organic nitrates), consisting of 146494 distinct air parcels from ATom deployments 1 through 4. Six models calculated the O3 and CH4 photochemical tendencies from this modeling data stream for ATom 1. We find that 80%-90% of the total reactivity lies in the top 50% of the parcels and 25%-35% in the top 10%, supporting previous model-only studies that tropospheric chemistry is driven by a fraction of all the air. In other words, accurate simulation of the least reactive 50% of the troposphere is unimportant for global budgets. Surprisingly, the probability densities of species and reactivities averaged on a model scale (100km) differ only slightly from the 2km ATom data, indicating that much of the heterogeneity in tropospheric chemistry can be captured with current global chemistry models. Comparing the ATom reactivities over the tropical oceans with climatological statistics from six global chemistry models, we find excellent agreement with the loss of O3 and CH4 but sharp disagreement with production of O3. The models sharply underestimate O3 production below 4km in both Pacific and Atlantic basins, and this can be traced to lower NOx levels than observed. Attaching photochemical reactivities to measurements of chemical species allows for a richer, yet more constrained-to-what-matters, set of metrics for model evaluation.

Developing decision-relevant science for adaptation requires the identification of climatic parameters that are both actionable for practitioners as well as tractable for modelers. In many sectors, these decision-relevant climatic metrics and the approaches that enable their identification remain largely unknown. “Co-production” of science with scientists and decision-makers is one potential way to identify these metrics, but there is little research describing specific and successful co-production approaches. This paper examines the negotiations and outcomes from Project Hyperion, wherein scientists and water managers jointly developed decision-relevant climatic metrics for adaptive water management. We identify successful co-production strategies by analyzing the project's numerous back-and-forth engagements and tracing the evolution of the science during these engagements. We found that effective mediation between scientists and managers needed dedicated “boundary spanners” with significant modeling expertise. Translating practitioners' information needs into tractable climatic metrics required direct and indirect methods of eliciting knowledge. We identified four indirect methods that were particularly salient for extracting tacitly held knowledge and enabling shared learning: developing a hierarchical framework linking management issues with metrics, starting discussions from the planning challenges, collaboratively exploring the planning relevance of new scientific capabilities, and using analogies of other “good” metrics. The decision-relevant metrics we developed provide insights into advancing adaptation-relevant climate science in the water sector. The co-production strategies we identified can be used to design and implement productive scientist-decision-maker interactions. Overall, the approaches and metrics we developed can help climate science to expand in new and more use-inspired directions.